Western Sahara

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10 Takeaways from the African Union Summit – July 2018

The 31st Summit of Heads of State of the African Union held in Nouakchott Mauritania is now over. The Summit was held under the AU annual theme: “Winning the Fight Against Corruption: A Sustainable Path to Africa’s Transformation.”

Decisions of the Summit are not yet publicly available but, as usual, I would like to share with you, the following unofficial summary of the key outcomes of the Summit.

Over the next following weeks, I will be sharing deeper personal analysis on some of the issues discussed in Nouakchott and on the AU agenda.

The Summit meetings were held as follows:

  • Permanent Representative Committee (Ambassadors): 25th – 26th June
  • Executive Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs): 28th – 29th June
  • Assembly (Heads of State and Government): 1st – 2nd July

The Summit was overshadowed by peace and security issues including the security incidents in the Sahel; the multiple deadly attacks that happened in Mali and Niger while the Summit taking place. The state of peace and security in the continent was largely discussed by the Assembly including the situation in DRC, CAR, Burundi, Libya, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa etc. The Peace and Security Council of the AU met at the level of Heads of State in Nouakchott to discuss the situation in South Sudan. See Communique here.

MAURITANIA-AU-SUMMIT

10 Key Takeaways from the Summit:

  • African Union Reform: There were no substantial progress in Nouakchott on the institutional reform of the African Union. Some disagreements among member States on President Kagame’s proposal remain. For example, there is still no consensus among all Member States on the application of 0,2% levy on eligible importations in order to fund the Union, the mode of designation/appointment of commissioners, power dynamics within the institution, the scope of intervention of the AU and the division of labor between the continental body and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs). After all, it seems like not all member states have the same view on how to get a strong, autonomous and effective African Union to drive our development and integration ambitions. An extraordinary Summit will be held on 17 & 18 November this year to focus on the reform agenda.
  • The Continental Free Trade Area: Significant progress recorded including the adoption of the five services priority sectors (Transport, communication, financial, tourism and business services). 5 additional countries joined the AfCFTA including one of the biggests economies of the continent: South Africa. The other new signatories are Burundi, Sierra Leone, Lesotho, and Namibia. Now 49 countries in total have signed the AfCFTA  and 6 have ratified it. 16 more ratifications are needed for the treaty to enter into force. If all 55 AU members join the treaty, it will create a bloc with a cumulative GDP of $2.5 trillion and cover a market of 1.2 billion people. In terms of numbers of participating countries, AfCFTA will be the world’s largest free trade area since the formation of the World Trade Organization. You can get insightful information on the AfCFTA here.
  • Western Sahara Conflict: AUC Chairperson presented a comprehensive report and proposed a mechanism to move ahead on the issue. While calling for the Polisario Front and Morocco to resume negotiations, without preconditions and in good faith, the Summit adopted the mechanism including the setting up of a Troika of 3 Heads of State: the current Chair of the Union (President Paul Kagame), the immediate past Chair (President Alpha Conde) and the incoming Chair (President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi) to be supported by the Chairperson of the AU Commission. The mission of the Troika will be to provide efficient support to the United Nations-led process (not to replace it) to resolve the conflict. The objective is the resumption of negotiations between the stakeholders to reach a just, lasting and mutually acceptable solution, which allows the self-determination of the people of Western Sahara. In addition, the Chairperson of the AUC is to reactivate the AU Office to the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara in Laayoune. The  Summit decided that the issue of Western Sahara can now only be raised within this framework and at this level.
  • Future of ACP/EU Cotonou Agreement post-2020: Professor Carlos Lopes, Former Executive Secretary of the UNECA is appointed as the African Union High Representative to support Member States in the negotiation of the new agreement with the EU Post-2020. Ministers of Foreign Affairs and those in charge of the  negotiation will meet by September to consolidate the African Common Position.
  • 2019 Budget of the Union: There are important progress toward ownership and budgetary process but the Union’s programs will still be largely funded by external donors in 2019. Total budget: $ 681 485 337 (about 12% less than the 2018 budget)
  • Operating budget: $ 416,329,505 including AMISOM operational budget ($ 243,430,467)
  • Program budget: US $ 265,155,832

The 2019 budget will be financed as follow: $ 280,045,761 by AU Member States and $ 401,439,575 by external partners.

  • Francophonie: Both Ministers of Foreign Affairs and the Assembly of Heads of State endorsed the candidacy of Rwanda’s Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo to the post of Secretary General of “La Francophonie”; the Organization of French Speaking countries (OIF).
  • Migration: Proposed by the King Mohammed VI of Morocco, AU Leader on Migration, the Summit decided to create an African Observatory for Migration and Development (OAMD) to be based in the Rabat, Morocco. Several delegations and personalities including the Chairperson of the African Union Commission publicly spoke against the recent proposal of the European Union to create a Regional disembarkation platforms to be located outside of Europe for migrants recused in international waters. In addition, the Peace and Security Council met to discuss the migration situation in the continent. See the Communique here.Migration pic
  • Sahel: the United Nations launched a revitalized strategic plan at the sidelines of the Summit entitled “Sahel, Land of Opportunities”. The plan targets 10 countries and six key areas including growth inclusive of empowerment of women and youth, cross border security and sustaining peace. The targeted countries, namely Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Cameroon will have continued support for ongoing efforts by governmental, non-governmental, national and regional bodies. 65 per cent of the region’s population is below 25 years of age, the plan then urges specific investments in education and vocational training to achieve higher demographic dividend.
  • Fighting Corruption: Recognizing that Africa’s development plans including the Agenda 2063 would be seriously impeded without rigorous measures against corruption, AU Heads of State have reached a consensus on establishing a monitoring mechanism to fight against domestic and cross-border corruption through cooperation.
  • In a solemn declaration, Heads of State decided to combat Illicit Financial Flows through various practical measures including the establishment of  effective ownership registers, country-by-country reporting of financial information, exchange of tax information agreements, mutual support in reinforcing tax authorities etc.   Several leaders spoke strongly against corruption and proposed courageous reform  to combat it in the public, and private sectors. For example, President Buhari of Nigeria, the AU Leader on the fight against corruption said: “We must all collectively work to place high on the agenda the need for open and participatory government, as well as the repatriation of stolen assets without procedural technicalities and legal obstacles.” The Gambian President Adama Barrow said: ‘’our successes in the fight against corruption will ensure that resources are retained and used to support structural transformations and expansion of our economies…we cannot afford resource wastages through corruption thereby depriving our citizens the opportunities to improve their living standards”
  • Attendance: The Summit has been poorly attended at high level. Only about half of the 55 African Heads of state made it to Nouakchott. Absentee Presidents include Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, Abdel Fattah Sissi of Egypt, Patrice Talon of Benin, João Lourenço of Angola, José Mario Vaz of Guinea Bissau, Alassane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire, King Mohammed VI of Morocco etc.
  • First participation in the Summit: Presidents Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa and Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone. French President Emmanuel Macron made an exceptional appearance in the margins of the Summit to have side discussions with African leaders on  the G5 Sahel initiative and other peace and security issues.

Prospects for the year 2019: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will be the Chairperson of the African Union for 2019 and the theme of the year will be Refugees, Returnees and IDPs in Africa: towards durable solutions to forced displacement.  2019 will mark the 50th anniversary of the adoption of the 1969 OAU Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa (OAU Convention) as well as the 10th anniversary of the adoption of the 2009 AU Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention). The Assembly decision at its 29th Assembly in July 2017 mandates the AU Commission to work with UNHCR and other partners to organize a series of commemorative events aimed at raising the visibility and provide thoughts for solutions of forced displacement in Africa. A series of events aimed at increasing ratification and domestication of the two key documents are being planned under the Project 2019, a joint AU-UNHCR initiative. 

In line with the ongoing reform of the African Union, the just-finished Summit was expected to be the last mid-year Summit. From 2019 onward, there will only be one (1) ordinary Summit per year. The Union will rather host a mid-year coordination Session with the Regional Economic Communities. The first will be held in Niamey, Niger end June 2019.

The 32nd Ordinary Session of the Assembly will be held on the 10th & 11th February 2019 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Please do not hesitate to drop me an email on assogbavi@me.com should you have any questions, suggestions or comments.

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2 Comments Posted on 28th AU Summit, Africa, african union, Conflicts, Western Sahara

Key Decisions of the AU Summit

(Non-official Summary)

The 28th African Union (AU) summit held in Addis Ababa on 30-31st January was a historical one given the landmark decisions adopted, including the admission of Morocco into the Union and a deep reform of the continental body.  The summit also renewed the leadership of the AUC and took steps towards financial independence  of the Union. Albeit the lack of strong country/context related decisions on Peace and Security issues, the Assembly adopted the Master Plan towards Silencing the Guns by 2020. Finally, the summit adopted the so called ‘collective withdrawal strategy’, a misnomer of a document which provides member states with  a roadmap for eventual individual withdrawal from the ICC in case AU’s claims and proposals regarding the court and some of its  on-going operations are not taken in consideration.

INSTITUTIONAL REFORM

The Summit;

    • Took note of the recommendations for the proposed reforms to further strengthen the African Union, in the following five areas: a) Focus on key priorities with continental scope; b) Realign African Union institutions in order to deliver against those priorities; c) Connect the African Union to its citizens; d) Manage the business of the African Union efficiently and effectively at both the political and operational levels; e) Finance the African Union sustainably and with the full ownership of the Member States.
    • Decided to adopt the recommendations in the Report as amended by Member States during the Retreat’s deliberations (see below)
    • Mandated President Paul Kagame, in his capacity as the lead on the institutional reform of the Union, in collaboration with President Idriss Deby Itno, of Chad in his capacity as the outgoing Chairperson and President Alpha Conde, of the Republic of Guinea in his capacity as the current Chairperson, to supervise the implementation process;
    • The Incoming Commission elected at the January 2017 Summit shall put in place a Reform Implementation Unit at the AU Commission, within the Bureau of the Chairperson, responsible for the day-to-day coordination and implementation of this decision;
    • The Incoming Commission shall also make recommendations on a mechanism to ensure that legally binding decisions and commitments are implemented by Member States;
    • President Paul Kagame shall report at each Ordinary Session of the Assembly on progress made with the implementation of this decision.

Focus on key priorities with continental scope:

i) The African Union should focus on a fewer number of priority areas, which are by nature continental in scope, such as political affairs, peace and security, economic integration (including the Continental Free Trade Area), and Africa’s global representation and voice;

ii) There should be a clear division of labour and effective collaboration between the African Union, the Regional Economic Communities (RECs), the Regional Mechanisms (RMs), the Member States, and other continental institutions, in line with the principle of subsidiarity.

Realigning African Union institutions in order to deliver against those priorities

i) The Commission should initiate, without delay, a professional audit of bureaucratic bottlenecks and inefficiencies that impede service delivery and the recommendations therein;

ii) The Commission’s structures should be re-evaluated to ensure that they have the right size and capabilities to deliver on the agreed priorities;

iii) The Commission’s senior leadership team should be lean and performance-oriented;

iv) NEPAD should be fully integrated into the Commission as the African Union’s development agency, aligned with the agreed priorities and underpinned by an enhanced results-monitoring framework;

v) The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) should be strengthened to track implementation and oversee monitoring and evaluation in key governance areas of the continent;

vi) The roles and functions of the African Union judicial organs and the Pan-African Parliament should be reviewed and clarified, and their progress to date assessed;

vii) The Peace and Security Council (PSC) should be reformed to ensure that it meets the ambition foreseen in its Protocol, by strengthening its working methods and its role in conflict prevention and crisis management;

viii) The Permanent Representatives Committee’s (PRC) Rules of Procedures should be reviewed and be in line with the mandate provided for in the Constitutive Act of the African Union. The PRC should facilitate communication between the African Union and national capitals, and act as an advisory body to the Executive Council, and not as a supervisory body of the Commission.

Connecting the African Union to its citizens

i) The Commission should establish women and youth quotas across its institutions and identify appropriate ways and means to ensure the private sector’s participation;

ii) The Commission should establish an African Youth Corps, as well as develop programs to facilitate cultural and sports exchange among Member States;

iii) Member States should make the African passport available to all eligible citizens as quickly as possible, in line with the Assembly decision Assembly/AU/Dec.607 (XXVII) adopted in Kigali, Rwanda in July 2016

iv) The Commission should identify and provide a set of new capabilities or ‘assets’ in the form of common continent-wide public goods and services valued by Member States and citizens. Such services could include the provision of neutral arbitration and competition services, or a common technical platform for the data and analysis needed to assess Africa’s progress toward its development goals;

v) Member States should engage their Parliaments and citizens, including civil society, on the African Union reform process.

Managing the business of the African Union efficiently and Effectively, at both political and operational levels

Political management of the Union

i) The African Union Assembly shall handle an agenda of no more than three (3) strategic items at each Summit, in line with the Me’kelle Ministerial Retreat recommendations. Other appropriate business should be delegated to the Executive Council

ii) The Assembly shall hold one Ordinary Summit per year, and shall hold extraordinary sessions as the need arise

iii) In place of the June/July Summit, the Bureau of the African Union Assembly should hold a coordination meeting with Regional Economic Communities, with the participation of the Chairpersons of the Regional Economic Communities, the AU Commission and Regional Mechanisms. Ahead of this meeting, the AU Commission shall play a more active coordination and harmonisation role with the Regional Economic Communities, in line with the Abuja Treaty;

iv) External parties shall only be invited to Summits on an exceptional basis and for a specific purpose determined by in the interests of the African Union;

v) Partnership Summits convened by external parties should be reviewed with a view to providing an effective framework for African Union Africa should be represented by the Troika, namely the current, incoming and outgoing Chairpersons of the African Union, the Chairperson of the AU Commission, and the Chairpersons of the Regional Economic Communities;

vi) To ensure continuity and effective implementation of Assembly decisions, a troika arrangement between the outgoing, the current, and the incoming African Union Chairpersons should be established. In this regard, the incoming chairperson shall be selected one year in advance;

vii) Heads of State shall be represented at Summits by officials not lower than the level of Vice President, Prime Minister or equivalent;

viii) The current sanctions mechanism should be strengthened and enforced. This would include consideration of making participation in the African Union deliberations contingent on adherence to Summit decisions.

Operational management of the Union 

i) The election of the Chairperson of the AU Commission should be enhanced by a robust, merit-based, and transparent selection process;

ii) The Deputy Chairperson and Commissioners should be competitively recruited in line with best practice and appointed by the Chairperson of the Commission, to whom they should be directly accountable, taking into account gender and regional diversity, amongst other relevant considerations;

iii) The Deputy Chairperson role should be reframed to be responsible for the efficient and effective functioning of the Commission’s administration;

iv) The title of Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson may also be reconsidered;

v) A fundamental review of the structure and staffing needs of the organisation, as well as conditions of service, should be undertaken to ensure alignment with agreed priority areas.

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC)

The Summit;

  • Adopted the ICC Withdrawal Strategy and called on member states to consider implementing its recommendations… But  many countries entered reservations to the text.
  • Requested the Group of African States Parties in New York in collaboration with AU Commission to actively participate in the deliberations of the Working Group on Amendments to ensure that African proposals are adequately considered and addressed;

ADMISSION OF MOROCCO

The Summit;

  • Welcomed the request from the Kingdom of Morocco as it provides the opportunity to reunite the African community of states around the Pan-African core values of the Founders of solidarity, unity, freedom and equality, in accordance with the Principles and Objectives of the Constitutive Act. This will strengthen the ability of the African Union to find African solutions to African problems;
  • Decided to admit the Kingdom of Morocco as a new Member State of the African Union in conformity with Article 9(c) and Article 29 of the Constitutive Act of the African Union;
  • Requested  Morocco to deposit their instrument of accession to the Constitutive Act of the African Union.

WESTERN SAHARA

The Summit;

  • Noted with deep concerns the continued impasse in the search for a solution to the conflict in and underlined the urgent need for renewed international efforts to facilitate an early resolution of the conflict. In this respect, the Assembly called again to the UN General Assembly to determine a date for the holding of the self-determination referendum for the people of Western Sahara and protect the integrity of the Western Sahara as a non-self-governing territory from any act which may undermine it.
  • Urged the UN Security Council to fully assume its responsibilities in restoring the full functionality of United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), as it is indispensable for overseeing the ceasefire and organizing the self-determination referendum in Western Sahara, as well as in addressing the issues of the respect of human rights and the illegal exploration and exploitation of the Territory’s natural resources, particularly in line with the important judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union issued on 21 December 2016, on the arrangement between the EU and Morocco signed in 2012, on the mutual liberalization of the trade in agricultural and fishing products.

PEACE & SECURITY

 The Summit;

    • Emphasized the need for all AU Member States, in particular the PSC, to give more focus on conflict prevention, early warning and early response, in order to prevent, for future, occurrence of full blown conflicts in the continent.
    • Endorsed the African Union Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to Silence the Guns in Africa by year 2020, as a guideline for Africa’s efforts to this end.
    • Directed the PSC to establish a monitoring and evaluation mechanism on the basis of which the Assembly will periodically review progress in the implementation of the Master Roadmap;

FINANCING THE AFRICAN UNION

The Summit; 

i) The Committee of Ten Finance Ministers should assume responsibility for oversight of the African Union budget and Reserve Fund and develop a set of ‘golden rules’, establishing clear financial management and accountability principles;

ii) After funding of the budget of the African Union and the Peace Fund, the  balance of the proceeds of the 0.2% AU levy on eligible imports, the Committee of Ten Finance Ministers should look into placing surplus in a Reserve Fund for continental priorities as decided by the Assembly;

iv) The current scale of contributions should be revised based on the principles of ability to pay, solidarity, and equitable burden-sharing, to avoid risk concentration.

ELECTION AT THE LEADERSHIP OF THE UNION –

AU Chairperson for 2017: H.E. President Alpha Conde – Guinea

AU Learders elected 2017.jpg

Credit photo and draft decisions: African Union Commission

3 Comments Posted on Africa, African Agency, African Politics, african union, Conflicts, Western Sahara

Le «Retour» du Maroc à l’Union Africaine: Une Opportunité ou un Challenge?

Le Royaume du Maroc a présenté officiellement une demande d’adhésion à l’Acte Constitutif de l’Union Africaine pour «redevenir» membre de l’Union. La demande a également été remise au Président de la Commission de l’UA,  Dr Dlamini-Zuma par le conseiller du Roi Mohammed VI aux Affaires étrangères, Taieb Fassi Fihri, le 22 Septembre 2016, lors d’une réunion tenue en marge de la 71e session de l’Assemblée Générale des Nations Unies à New York.

S’il est géré de bonne foi et en respectant les principes de base de l’Union Africaine, le retour du Maroc à l’Union Africaine pourrait avoir de nombreuses répercussions positives pour l’UA et potentiellement faciliter la résolution du conflit du Sahara Occidental. Dans le cas contraire, cette évolution comporte tous les risques de dangereusement diviser l’Union Africaine.

J’aimerais partager ici mes opinions personnelles sur certaines des implications de ce «retour». Voir la version en Anglais de l’article ici: http://wp.me/p4ywYV-bh

En juin et juillet 2016, le Maroc a entrepris une campagne diplomatique en prélude au Sommet de l’Union Africaine. Des émissaires marocains ont visité le Sénégal, la Côte-d’Ivoire, la Zambie, le Cameroun, l’Ethiopie, l’Egypte, le Soudan, le Kenya et la Tunisie. Quelques jours avant le Sommet, le Président Paul Kagame du Rwanda, pays hôte du Sommet a eu une visite de deux jours au Maroc et a été décoré avec la plus haute distinction d’honneur du Maroc. De même, la Zambie a envoyé son ministre des Affaires étrangères à Casablanca où il a annoncé la décision de son pays d’annuler la reconnaissance de la  République Arabe Sahraouie Démocratique.

Au cours du Sommet de l’UA à Kigali, le Roi du Maroc a envoyé une lettre officielle au Président de l’Assemblée de l’Union Africaine indiquant que le Maroc souhaiterait revenir à l’UA. Le Président en exercice de l’UA, le  Tchadien Idriss Deby aurait refusé d’inscrire  ladite lettre à l’ordre du jour du Sommet. Au cours de la deuxième journée du Sommet, les délégués ont vu circulée une motion demandant la suspension de la République Arabe Sahraouie Démocratique de l’UA. La motion, qui aurait été approuvée par 28 États a été catalysée par le Président du Gabon Ali Bongo avec le soutien d’autres alliés tels que le président Macky Sall du Sénégal. La motion n’a cependant pas pu être présentée.

L’entrée du Maroc à l’Union Africaine Pourrait être Positif

Le Maroc, membre fondateur de l’Organisation de l’Unité Africaine (OUA) avait claquée la porte y a 32 ans suite à  l’admission de la RASD comme Etat membre de l’Union. Au cours des années 2000s, l’OUA a été transformée pour devenir l’Union Africaine avec un nouveau traité ; l’Acte Constitutif de l’Union et des objectifs renforcés. Sur le plan juridique, l’UA donc est une nouvelle organisation et tous ses 54 membres actuels ont souscris à ses visions et principes fondamentaux en ratifiant le nouvel Acte Constitutif. Pour le Maroc il s’agira donc d’une adhesion, pas d’un retour…

Je n’ai pas vu le contenu de la requête du Maroc mais une telle demande implique  forcement l’acceptation sans réserve par le Maroc des principes de base de l’organisation. Le Maroc devra alors cohabiter avec tous les membres de l’UA, y compris la RASD. Ceci ouvrerait aussi la porte à une résolution pacifique et acceptable du conflit du Sahara Occidental. L’UA pourra alors regagner de l’influence pour faciliter le processus.

Des Avantages en Matière de Paix et de Sécurité : L’entrée de Maroc dans l’Union Africaine pourra augmenter les chances d’une solution africaine aux crises dans la région du Maghreb, le Maroc étant un acteur majeur en matière de sécurité en Afrique du Nord et un leader dans la lutte contre l’extrémisme et le sécularisme islamique. L’Union du Maghreb Arabe (UMA) a été la Communauté Economique Régionale la moins fonctionnelle. L’engagement du Maroc ou de l’UMA dans les opérations de soutien à  la paix  de la Force africaine en attente pourrait augmenter sa capacité de façon significative. La lutte contre le terrorisme a été l’un des défis les plus importants pour lesquels le Maroc pourra être un allié sérieux  s’il devient membre de l’Union.

Un Gain Economique Majeur: la réussite économique du Maroc serait un sérieux atout pour le programme d’intégration économique de l’Union africaine et des programmes spécifiques tels que l’Agenda 2063.

Une avancée Historique: Le retour à L’Union Africaine d’un Etat clé de l’histoire du panafricanisme projetterait une image positive du continent.

pic-blog2

Un Retour «Forcé» du Maroc Pourrait Dangereusement Diviser l’Union Africaine

Dans une récente interview, le Président Macky Sall du Sénégal soutenant le retour du Maroc a déclaré: «Le Maroc a décidé de revenir et a demandé que la légalité constitutionnelle internationale soit respectée, conformément aux principes de l’ONU où le Sahara Occidental n’est pas représenté comme Etat indépendant ”, se référant ainsi à la récente tentative avortée de 28 pays pour suspendre la République Arabe Sahraouie Démocratique de l’UA par une motion. Le Président Hery Rajaonarimampianina de Madagascar a également  salué la décision du Maroc et a promis de tout faire pour que ce retour légitime se concretise dès le plus vite possible.

Le Maroc multiplie des actions en faveurs des Etats membres de l’Union à travers la création et le renforcement de liens diplomatiques et économiques. Le Maroc élargis son cercle traditionnel d’amis (Afrique de l’Ouest) à d’autres régions du continent notamment avec le renforcement récent des relations diplomatiques avec le Rwanda,  l’Ouganda et la Zambie. L’élargissement de ce cercle constitue à n’en pas douter une menace réelle  pour la RASD. L’Union Africaine prend normalement ses décisions par consensus mais il est peu probable d’avoir ce consensus sur la question de maintenir la  RASD ou non au sein de l’Union Africaine. Même une majorité simple sera difficile à obtenir dans la configuration actuelle.  D’ailleurs, il n’existe aujourd’hui aucun mécanisme permettant d’expulser un Etat  membre de l’Union Africaine en dehors du cas de suspension pour non-paiement de cotisations ou en cas de coup d’Etat.

Les Etats super-influents comme l’Afrique du Sud, l’Algérie et le Nigeria sont loin de laisser passer une motion d’expulsion ou de suspension de la  RASD  de l’Union Africaine. Même au pire des cas, une action dans ce sens remettra en cause le sacro-saint principe du droit à l’autodétermination, un des principes fondateurs de l’OUA. L’Union Africaine en sortirait profondément affaiblie et devisée.

Le Maroc pourrait également utiliser une stratégie différente qui serait de faire entrée soft dans l’Union Africaine en acceptant la position actuelle de l’organisation sur le Sahara Occidental, mais continuer la bataille contre la RASD au sein de l’Union avec le soutien des alliés. Cela me semble être le scénario le plus probable mais aussi le plus facile pour intégrer  l’Union … Mais le Maroc et ses alliés réussiront- ils à bouter la SADR dehors? Telle est la question…

Il est important de souligner ici que l’Afrique a beaucoup plus a gagner d’un règlement pacifique du conflit Sahraoui sur la base des principes fondateurs de l’Union Africaine, des droits fondamentaux de l’homme et du droit international.

2 Comments Posted on Africa, African Politics, african union, Conflicts, Western Sahara

Morocco’s “Return” to the African Union: Opportunity or Challenge?

The Kingdom of Morocco officially submitted a request to accede to the African Union Constitutive Act and become a Member of the Union. The letter was also handed over to the Chairperson of the AUC, Dr. Dlamini-Zuma through the adviser to the King Mohammed VI on Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Morocco, H.E. Taieb Fassi Fihri, on 22 September 2016, at a meeting held on the margins of the 71st Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

If it is managed in good faith and the respect of African Union basic principles, Morocco’s return to the African Union could have numerous positive implications for the AU and potentially bring about the long awaited for “resolve” to Western Sahara conflict. If not, this development has every risk of dangerously dividing the Union.

Here are my personal views on some of the implications of this development:

See the French version of the article here: http://wp.me/p4ywYV-bx

In June and July 2016 Morocco undertook Pre-AU-Summit Campaign through Moroccan envoy Salaheddine Mezouar who visited Senegal, Ivory Coast, Zambia, Cameroon Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan and Tunisia and from 15 July, Morocco sent Special Envoy Taieb Fassi Fihri to Kenya. Preceding the AU Summit, President Paul Kagame of the host nation Rwanda held a two-day visit to Morocco and was decorated Morocco’s highest national award of honour. Equally,  Zambia sent its Minister of Foreign Affairs to Casablanca where he announced the country’s decision to “de-recognise” Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

During the AU Summit in Kigali in July 2016 the King of Morocco sent an official letter to the Chairperson of the Assembly  the African Union indicating Morocco wishes to return to the AU. The Chadian Chairperson of the AU Idriss Deby reportedly refused to table the letter at the Summit. During the second day of the Summit, delegates saw a motion calling for the suspension of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic from the AU. The motion, allegedly endorsed by 28 states was catalyzed by the President of Gabon Ali Bongo alongside other strong allies such as President Macky Sall of Senegal. The motion however failed to be presented.

Morocco’s return for the African Union could be a positive development

Morocco, a founding member of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) left OAU 32 years ago over the admission of SADR and the subsequent refusal to expel  SADR from the Union.  In the year 2000, the OAU has been transformed to the African Union with a new Constitutive Act and enhanced objectives. So, legally talking, the AU is a new organization and all its current 54 members have subscribed to its visions and principles.

I have not seen the contents of Morocco’s application for membership to the AU but such a request to “return” to the AU should naturally entail an unconditional acceptance of the basic principles of the organization. Morocco will then have to cohabit with all members of the AU, including the SADR. This also brings the hope of a peaceful and acceptable resolution to the Western Sahara Conflict. The AU will then regain full leverage to facilitate the process.

Gains on Peace and Security:  African solution or approach to crisis in the Maghreb region would be greatly enhanced by cooperation with Morocco a major security actor  in North Africa and a lead in countering violent extremism and management of secularism. The Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) has been the least functional Regional Economic Community (REC) the strength, Military engagement of the AMU in Peace Support Operations and the African Standby Force could increase significantly. Countering Terrorism has been the most prominent challenge with which Morocco can also assist if it becomes a member of the Union.

Economic Gains: Morocco’s economic success would be a serious asset for the African Union’s economic integration agenda and specific programmes such as Agenda 2063.

Historical Win: The return of one of the leading Pan African States in the history of Africa and a founding member of OAU will project an excellent image of the continent.morroco-pic1

A “Forced” return of Morocco could dangerously split the African Union

In a recent interview, President Macky Sall of Senegal, in full support of Morocco’s move declared: “Morocco has decided to come back and has requested that international constitutional legality be respected in accordance with the UN where the Western Sahara is not represented as an independent state’’, referring to the recent failed attempt of 28 countries to kick the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic out of the AU by a motion. President Hery Rajaonarimampianina of Madagascar also ‘welcomed’ Morocco’s decision and promises that he will ‘work to ensure that this legitimate return be effective as soon as possible.’

Morocco is building relationships and depositing favors with member states through creating and strengthening diplomatic and economic ties. Morocco’s traditional stronghold in West Africa is expanding with recent allies in Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia. With this warm welcome and increased support, Morocco will be able to garner within the Union, so, the standing of Western Sahara could be increasingly threatened.

In any case, there is currently no mechanism within AU policies and regulations to expel a member state from the Union except the cases of suspension for non-payment of contributions or for unconstitutional change of government. The AU normally makes its decisions based on consensus which is unlikely to be the case for this particular question on whether SADR should be kept in the AU or not.  Even a majority vote would be difficult to attain on this. In this case, the political decision making process of the AU would be strained and split on the question of Western Sahara.

The “expulsion” or “suspension” of SADR is unlikely to succeed within the current geopolitical framework of the African Union. Powerful members such as South Africa, Nigeria,  Algeria, Ethiopia etc would surely stand against such a move. Any forced attempt to expel SADR by whatever mean legal or political could dangerously split the African Union.  If this were to happen, in the worst case scenario the AU, as an organization which inherited the decolonization agenda, would violate one of its sacred principles of the right of people for self-determination. This would terribly weaken the organization’s standing.

Morocco may also use a different strategy which is to softly land in the African Union by accepting its current stand and position on Western Sahara but then continue the battle against the SADR from within the Union with the support of allies. This seems to me as the most likely scenario that Morocco may use and the easiest to get accepted in the African Union… But would Morocco and its allies succeed to push SADR out? That is the question…

It is important to stress here that Africa will rather gain from a peaceful resolution of the Western Sahara conflict based on the founding principles of the African Union, fundamental Human Rights and the international law.

Questions, Comments? email me: assodesir@gmail.com