African Politics

Leave a comment Posted on AfCFTA, Africa, African Politics, Uncategorized

Sommet des Chefs d’État d’Afrique et des Etats-Unis : Quels Enjeux ?

English version here

Le Président Américain Joe Biden organise un sommet avec les chefs d’État et de gouvernement africains à Washington DC du 13 au 15 décembre 2022. Ce sera le deuxième sommet américain avec des dirigeants africains, après celui organisé par le Président Obama en août 2014. 

J’ai eu l’occasion de participer au Sommet de Barack Obama en tant que représentant résident d’Oxfam International auprès de l’Union africaine à l’époque, et j’ai eu à publier mes réflexions ici.

Dans cet article, alors que je me prépare pour prendre part au Sommet de Joe Biden pour le compte de ONE Campaign, j’aimerais partager quelques réflexions personnelles sur les enjeux de cette rencontre imminente. 

Selon la Maison Blanche, le Sommet démontrera l’engagement des États-Unis envers l’Afrique et soulignera l’importance des relations entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique ainsi qu’une coopération poussée sur des priorités mondiales communes. Le sommet des dirigeants américains et africains vise à promouvoir et faire progresser la collaboration entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique sur les priorités mondiales et régionales les plus urgentes.

Sur l’Agenda

Selon la Maison Blanche, le Sommet des leaders d’Afrique et des Etats-Unis  s’appuiera sur les valeurs, communes aux deux continents afin de mieux :

1- Favoriser un nouvel engagement économique

2- Promouvoir la paix, la sécurité et la bonne gouvernance

3- Renforcer l’engagement en faveur de la démocratie, les droits de l’homme et la société civile.

4- Travailler en synergie pour renforcer la sécurité sanitaire régionale et mondiale.

5- Promouvoir la sécurité alimentaire

6- Répondre à la crise climatique

7- Amplifier les liens avec la diaspora

L’importance géopolitique et économique de l’Afrique

De toute évidence, le Sommet sera le reflet de la nouvelle stratégie américaine à l’égard de l’Afrique, qui démontre l’importance cruciale du continent pour relever les défis mondiaux actuels. L’Afrique est un acteur géopolitique clé, qui façonne le présent et l’avenir du monde.

Avec une population à la croissance la plus rapide au monde, la plus grande zone de libre-échange, les écosystèmes les plus diversifiés et étant la plus grande force politique pour les votes aux Nations Unies, l’Afrique est un vaste continent organisé en cinq régions géographiques (Nord, Est, Ouest, Sud, Centre). Les aspirations actuelles du continent sont mis en évidence dans l’Agenda 2063 de l’Union Africaine – L’Afrique que nous voulons, un plan d’action visant à construire un continent intégré, pacifique et prospère qui occupe la place qui lui revient sur la scène mondiale.

L’importance stratégique du continent pour la sécurité et la prospérité régionales et mondiales et le rôle croissant et significatif qu’il joue dans la mise sur pied du système mondial de gouvernance ont fait de l’Afrique un acteur politique incontournable dans les discussions internationales. Cette importance se note clairement dans les divers types d’engagements diplomatiques et l’éventail des partenariats qu’elle établit avec différents blocs politiques et pays au cours des trois dernières décennies.

En outre, l’Afrique est très attrayante, avec ses ressources naturelles et humaines abondantes. Sa population majoritairement jeune, dynamique et résiliente, son énorme potentiel de développement, de commerce et d’investissement, entre autres, sont quelques-uns des grands atouts et avantages concurrentiels du continent.

Diplomatie des Sommets: une Tentative de Rattrapage ?

Depuis que le Président Obama a organisé le premier Sommet avec le continent en 2014, dans le but de contribuer à ouvrir un nouveau chapitre dans les relations américano-africaines, les États-Unis ont perdu du terrain face à leurs “concurrents” en Afrique. Entre temps, le président Trump avait choisi de dénigrer les pays africains et interdit à nombre de leurs citoyens de se rendre aux États-Unis, et le président Biden n’a pas fait grand-chose jusqu’à présent pour montrer son engagement envers l’Afrique.

Au cours des deux dernières années seulement, l’Union européenne, le Royaume-Uni, la Turquie, l’Inde et le Japon ont tenu leurs sommets avec le continent. La Chine a organisé son quatrième Forum triennal sur la coopération sino-africaine (FOCAC) au Sénégal, et la Russie tiendra son deuxième sommet africain en 2023. La Chine a nettement approfondi ses relations avec l’Afrique. Ses échanges commerciales avec le continent ayant augmentées 35 % en 2021 pour atteindre un pic de 254 milliards de dollars en atteste largement. En outre, la Russie a fait des percées notoires, les mercenaires du groupe Wagner, soutenus par le Kremlin, opérant désormais dans pas moins de 18 pays africains, selon le Centre d’études stratégiques et internationales de Washington.

Les récents votes des pays africains à l’Assemblée générale des Nations unies sont assez édifiants et indique clairement que le continent ne peut plus être considéré comme acquis. Le Président Biden comprend donc certainement que l’Amérique doit rattraper son retard dans ses relations avec l’Afrique et, surtout, adopter une nouvelle approche et de nouveaux langages différents des pratiques de l’administration américaine précédente.

Qui est invité au Sommet, et qui ne l’est pas ?

49 dirigeants des 55 États membres de l’Union africaine ont été invités.  Les dirigeants du Mali, du Burkina Faso, du Soudan et de la Guinée, qui ont été suspendus de l’Union africaine, n’ont pas reçu d’invitation. L’autre critère d’invitation observé est inhérent à l’existence de relations diplomatiques. Le président Biden n’a, en effet, invité que les pays avec lesquels les États-Unis entretiennent des relations diplomatiques complètes. Actuellement, les États-Unis n’échangent pas d’ambassadeurs avec l’Érythrée et n’ont pas reconnu la République Arabe Sahraouie Démocratique en tant que pays ; par conséquent, bien que ces deux nations soient des membres réguliers de l’Union Africaine, elles n’ont pas été invitées. Curieusement, le Tchad a été invité bien que le dirigeant actuel du pays Mahamat Déby, ait récemment pris le pouvoir par un coup d’État, violant la constitution nationale et les règles de l’Union lorsque son père, Idriss Deby Itno, a été assassiné. L’Union Africaine n’a pas réussi à suspendre le Tchad à la suite du coup d’État, dans ce qui est considéré comme un double-standard politique.

Au-delà de la réunion des chefs d’État…

Le sommet de Washington impliquera aussi officiellement le monde des affaires, la société civile, la jeunesse et la diaspora africaine.

Un forum de la société civile sera organisé par l’USAID le 13 décembre 2022, avec la participation des représentants de la société civile et de certains dirigeants d’Afrique et des États-Unis. Le Forum proposera les sujets de discussion suivants : La participation inclusive dans la politique et la vie publique, la lutte contre la corruption, et les droits des travailleurs.

Un forum de la diaspora et de la jeunesse sera aussi organisé le 13 décembre 2022 : le forum des jeunes leaders d’Afrique et de la diaspora a pour objectif de rehausser le niveau d’engagement de la diaspora afin de renforcer le dialogue entre les responsables américains et la diaspora aux États-Unis et de fournir une plateforme aux jeunes leaders d’Afrique et de la diaspora pour élaborer des solutions innovantes aux défis urgents. L’Union africaine a identifié la diaspora africaine comme la sixième région du continent. La diaspora est, en effet, une ressource importante et une opportunité d’engagement dans le développement du continent. Le Forum comprendra des séances en petits groupes sur l’enseignement supérieur, les industries créatives et la justice climatique, sur le thème “Amplifier les voix : Construire des partenariats durables”.

Un forum des affaires sera organisé le 14 décembre 2022, par le ministère américain du commerce, la chambre de commerce américaine et le Corporate Council on Africa, en partenariat avec l’initiative Prosper Africa. Le Forum s’articulera autour de la promotion de partenariats bilatéraux en matière de commerce et d’investissement afin de renforcer le rôle de l’Afrique dans l’économie mondiale, développer l’innovation et l’esprit d’entreprise et favoriser les progrès dans des secteurs clés. Placé sous le thème “Partenariat pour un avenir prospère et résilient”, le Forum réunira des chefs d’État africains et des chefs d’entreprise et de gouvernement américains et africains afin de promouvoir des partenariats mutuellement bénéfiques qui créent des emplois et stimulent une croissance inclusive et durable des deux côtés de l’Atlantique.

Paix et sécurité : Il y aura un forum sur la paix, la sécurité et la gouvernance, avec des représentants des entités de développement, de défense et de diplomatie qui parleront des liens entre les institutions démocratiques, de la gouvernance, de la paix et la prospérité à long terme.

Commerce, santé, etc : Une réunion ministérielle sur la croissance et les possibilités économiques en Afrique sera également convoquée par le représentant des États-Unis pour le commerce, ainsi qu’une réunion ministérielle sur la santé afin d’examiner comment les deux parties pourraient s’associer pour mettre en place des systèmes de santé plus résilients et équitables afin de relever les défis sanitaires actuels et futurs.

Il sera aussi important pour les dirigeants africains de discuter de la forme que prendra le dispositif AGOA après son expiration en 2025 et de la manière dont son successeur s’intégrera dans la nouvelle zone de libre-échange continentale africaine.

Le climat : Une session avec les ministres des affaires étrangères sera également organisée pour soutenir la conservation, l’adaptation aux changements climatiques et une transition énergétique juste, ainsi qu’un forum américano-africain sur l’espace civil et commercial pour discuter des objectifs partagés sur la crise climatique, la promotion d’un comportements responsables et le renforcement de la coopération sur les activités spatiales scientifiques et commerciales.

Sécurité alimentaire : Une session spéciale du sommet sera consacrée à la sécurité alimentaire et aux systèmes alimentaires, l’une des préoccupations les plus cruciales dans laquelle l’Afrique doit investir de toute urgence, mais aussi dans une perspective à long terme, et pour laquelle les États-Unis peuvent être un excellent partenaire. 

Autres événements parallèles : Plusieurs acteurs non étatiques prévoient différentes réunions thématiques en marge des rassemblements officiels afin d’influer sur les résultats du sommet. Pour en savoir plus sur ces réunions, cliquez ici.

Quelles priorités pour l’Afrique ?

Le prochain sommet des dirigeants américains et africains devrait se concentrer sur une vision globale à long terme d’une relation forte et stratégique entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique, afin d’assurer la prospérité collective des peuples américain et africain. Une telle relation devrait être fondée sur un respect mutuel absolu et des valeurs partagées.

Dans le cadre de la Diplomatie des Sommets en cours avec les différents blocs politiques, l’Afrique devrait toujours s’assurer que les 7 aspirations de son Agenda 2063 sont prises en compte. Nos dirigeants doivent les aborder clairement lors des prochaines discussions à Washington.

Voici 4 des questions les plus cruciales que le Sommet devrait prioriser :

1/ La Sécurité Alimentaire : Le paradoxe embarrassant à ce sujet est que, bien qu’elle possède plus de 60% des terres fertiles du monde, l’Afrique reste un importateur hors norme de nourriture, dépensant 35 milliards de dollars par an en importations alimentaires. La guerre en Ukraine compromet aussi certains approvisionnements du continent. Si rien n’est fait, des millions d’Africains risquent encore de tomber dans l’extrême pauvreté et la malnutrition. La conséquence directe de la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires sera que moins de ménages africains pourront s’offrir des repas quotidiens décents. Les ménages en situation d’insécurité alimentaire sur le continent seront encore plus laissés à leurs sorts. Les taux de consommation baisseront, l’épargne s’épuisera, la dette augmentera et les actifs seront liquidés, ce qui risque d’accentuer l’instabilité sur le continent. Nous avons beaucoup de terres en Afrique, mais la plupart des agriculteurs utilisent encore des instruments rudimentaires pour l’agriculture. L’industrie agroalimentaire est peu développée en Afrique et se caractérise principalement par une transformation à petite échelle des produits agricoles, assurée par de petites unités aux capacités très limitées.

La Banque africaine de développement (BAD) dispose d’une stratégie pour la transformation de l’agriculture en Afrique dans le cadre de son High5. Lors de sa récente réunion annuelle à Accra, au Ghana, la BAD a lancé un programme de 1,5 milliard de dollar pour financer l’achat de denrées alimentaires pour les gouvernements à court d’argent vu la rapidité avec laquelle les prix augmentent. Il est urgent de donner la priorité aux investissements dans l’agriculture dès maintenant aux niveaux national et régional. Il est temps pour l’Afrique de se nourrir par elle-même. Le continent a besoin de ressources pour y parvenir, et les États-Unis peuvent l’appuyer financièrement et techniquement.

Le gouvernement des États-Unis a un fort pouvoir de pression pour soutenir ce processus. Le prochain sommet devrait donc être une occasion pour aborder la question de la fuite des capitaux d’Afrique comme un problème crucial pour l’avenir du continent et de la communauté mondiale.

2/ Le Financement du Développement :  Mettre fin aux flux financiers illicites pour stimuler l’industrialisation : Chaque année, 89 milliards de dollars quittent le continent africain sous forme de flux financiers illicites, selon le rapport de la CNUCED sur le développement économique en Afrique. Il s’agit de mouvements transfrontaliers d’argent et d’actifs dont la source, le transfert ou l’utilisation sont illégaux. Ils comprennent les capitaux illicites qui sortent du continent, les pratiques fiscales et commerciales telles que la facturation sous-facturation des expéditions commerciales, et les activités criminelles telles que les marchés illégaux, la corruption et les detournements.

APD contre FFIs : Le fait choquant est que les milliards perdus chaque année à cause des FFI sont presque égaux à l’aide publique au développement (APD) et aux investissements directs étrangers (IDE) réunis. Il s’agit d’opportunités de développement manquées. Ainsi, l’Afrique perd beaucoup plus d’argent à cause de la fuite des capitaux qu’elle n’en obtient à travers l’aide au développement, les emprunts extérieurs ou les investissements directs étrangers. L’arrêt des flux financiers illicites nécessite une coopération et des actions internationales, tant sur le continent qu’à l’extérieur. Chaque dollar qui quitte le continent est une occasion manquée d’investir dans des domaines tels que l’agriculture, la sécurité alimentaire, les services de santé et d’éducation, et les infrastructures.

Mandaté par l’Union Africaine et la Commission économique des Nations Unies pour l’Afrique, un groupe de haut niveau dirigé par l’ancient président Thabo Mbeki a formulé des recommandations pratiques pour lutter contre les FFI.  Nous devons revenir sur ces recommandations, les concrétiser et débloquer des ressources substantielles pour financer nos plans de développement.

3/ La jeunesse : l’emploi et le développent des compétences : La structure d’âge de notre population a un impact important sur notre développement économique. Le “dividende démographique” désigne les avantages économiques découlant d’une augmentation significative du nombre d’adultes en âge de travailler par rapport à ceux qui sont à charge. Ces adultes en âge de travailler doivent être en bonne santé, éduqués, formés, qualifiés et avoir un emploi décent, et d’autres opportunités économiques doivent être créées pour répondre à leurs demandes. Il ne suffit pas d’avoir une population jeune pour catalyser le développement et la prospérité.  Tous les pays africains doivent mettre en œuvre efficacement la feuille de route de l’Union Africaine pour tirer profit du dividende démographique en Afrique.

4/ Conflits : Au-delà des solutions militaires : L’Union Africaine elle-même a identifié plus de 20 conflits actuels dans les pays qui composent l’Union. 113 millions de personnes en Afrique ont actuellement un besoin urgent d’aide humanitaire. Les causes profondes de la plupart des conflits en Afrique se trouvent essentiellement dans l’extrême pauvreté, les profondes inégalités structurelles, la gestion inefficace des ressources naturelles et le changement climatique, entre autres. Les opérations militaires ne suffiront pas à apporter la paix en Afrique. Nous devons en priorité nous attaquer à la crise de la gouvernance, promouvoir une participation inclusive à la politique, fournir des services sociaux et stimuler le développement. Les interventions militaires ne doivent être qu’au service de cette approche.

Un mécanisme de redevabilité pour garantir la mise en œuvre des engagements du sommet Etats-Unis – Afrique.

Contrairement à d’autres sommets (TICAD, FOCAC, UE-UA, etc.), le sommet États-Unis-Afrique ne dispose pas d’un processus structuré de suivi, de mise en œuvre et de redevabilité. Le prochain sommet devrait examiner cette question de près et mettre en place un mécanisme de redevabilité mutuelle inclusif et impliquant les organisations de la société civile. 

Aujourd’hui, il est difficile de savoir précisément ce qu’il en est des engagements adoptés lors du sommet d’Obama en 2014. Le fait d’avoir près de 50 chefs d’État et de gouvernement, avec de grandes délégations qui se rendent à Washington en jets individuels, a un coût énorme pour le continent et le monde. Ce sommet devrait déboucher sur des actions concrètes et mesurables qui auront des impacts réels sur les populations des États-Unis et de l’Afrique.

Vos commentaires et suggestions sont les bienvenus sur ce site ou directement sur mon adresse mail : Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com ou Assogbavi@me.com

Si vous souhaitez continuer à recevoir mes articles, suivez ce blog en bas à gauche de cette page.

Leave a comment Posted on African Politics, african union, US-Africa

US-Africa Leaders’ Summit: What is at Stake?

French version here.

The United States President, Joe Biden, is hosting a Summit with African heads of State and government in Washington DC from the 13th to 15th of December 2022. This will be the second US Summit with African Leaders; the first was hosted by President Obama in August 2014.  I have had the opportunity to participate in the Obama Summit as the then Resident Representative of Oxfam International to the African Union, and I have posted my reflections here.

As I am preparing to participate in the upcoming Biden Summit as part of the ONE Campaign delegation, I would like to share a few personal thoughts on what is at stake in this gathering.  

According to the White House, the Summit will demonstrate the United States enduring commitment to Africa and will underscore the importance of U.S.- Africa relations and increased cooperation on shared global priorities. The U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit aims to advance U.S.- African collaboration on the current most pressing global and regional priorities.

Agenda

From the White House’s perspective, the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit will build on the values shared with the African Continents values to better:

1-        Foster new economic engagement

2-        Advance peace, security, and good governance

3-        Reinforce commitment to democracy, human rights, and civil society

4-        Work collaboratively to strengthen regional and global health security

5-        Promote food security

6-        Respond to the climate crisis

7-        Amplify diaspora ties

Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Importance

Obviously, the summit will mirror and will be a test for the new US strategy towards Africa, which emphasizes the critical importance of the continent in meeting today’s global challenges. Africa is a key geopolitical player, one that is shaping the present and will shape the future of the world.

With one of the world’s fastest-growing populations, the largest free trade area, the most diverse ecosystems, and one of the largest regional voting groups in the United Nations, Africa is a vast continent organized in five geographic regions (Northern, Southern, Western, Eastern, and Central Africa). The continent’s current aspirations are captured in the AU Agenda 2063 – The Africa We Want, a business plan aiming to realize an integrated, peaceful, and prosperous continent with its rightful place in the global arena.

The continent’s strategic importance to regional and global security and prosperity and the growing and influential role it has been playing in shaping the global system of governance have made Africa a critical political actor in global discussions. This importance can clearly be seen in the various types of diplomatic engagements and the range of partnerships established with different political blocs and countries over the last three decades.

In addition, Africa is highly attractive with its abundant natural endowments and rich human resources, its youthful, dynamic, and resilient population, and its enormous development, trade, and investment opportunities are some of the great assets and competitive advantages of the continent.

Summit Diplomacy Catching up?

Since President Obama hosted the first Summit with the continent in 2014, with the aim of helping to launch a new chapter in American – African relations, the United States has lost ground to its “competitors” in Africa. In between, President Trump had chosen to denigrate African countries and barred many of their citizens from visiting the United States, and President Biden has not done much so far to show commitment toward Africa.

In the last two years only, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Turkey, India, and Japan, held their Summits with the continent. China hosted its fourth triennial Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Senegal, and Russia will hold its second African Summit in 2023. China has deepened its relationship with Africa, with bilateral trade jumping 35% in 2021 to a peak of $254 billion. So far, Russia has inroads, with the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group mercenaries now operating in no less than 18 African countries, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The recent votes of African countries at the UN General Assembly are clear messages that the continent can no more be taken for granted, so President Biden surely understands that America needs to catch up on its relationship with Africa and, most importantly, to adopt a new approach and new languages that is different from initiatives by the previous U.S. Administration.

Who is invited to the Summit, and who is not?

49 Leaders of the 55 African Union member States have been invited.  Leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, and Guinea, who have been suspended from the African Union, have not received invitations. The other criterion for an invitation is that President Biden invited only countries with whom the US has full diplomatic relations. Currently, the US does not exchange ambassadors with Eritrea and has not recognized the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic as a country, so though these two nations are regular members of the African Union, they have not been invited. Curiously Chad has been invited even though the current leader of the country, Mahamat Déby, recently snatched power by a coup, violating the national constitution when his father, Idriss Deby, was killed. The African Union failed to suspend Chad following the coup in what is seen as an unfortunate political double standard.

Beyond the Heads of States Meeting

The Washington Summit will also officially involve the business community, civil society, the youth, and the African Diaspora.

A Civil Society Forum on the 13th of December 2022 is to be hosted by USAID with the participation of civil society representatives and some leaders from Africa and the United States. The Forum will table the following topics for discussion: Inclusive Participation in Politics and Public Life, Anticorruption Accountability, and Workers/Labor Participation.

A Diaspora & Youth Forum on the the13th of December 2022: the African and Diaspora Young Leaders Forum aims to elevate diaspora engagement to strengthen dialogue between U.S. officials and the diaspora in the United States and provide a platform for young African and diaspora leaders to fashion innovative solutions to pressing challenges. African Union has identified the African diaspora as the sixth region of the continent. The diaspora is an important resource and opportunity for engagement in the development of the continent. The Forum will feature breakout sessions on higher education, the creative industries, and environmental equity, utilizing the theme ‘‘Amplifying Voices: Building Partnerships that Last”.

A Business Forum on the 14th of December 2022 will be hosted by the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and Corporate Council on Africa, in partnership with the Prosper Africa initiative. The Forum will focus on advancing two-way trade and investment partnerships that bolster Africa’s role in the global economy, scale innovation and entrepreneurship, and drive advancements in key sectors. Under the theme “Partnering for a Prosperous and Resilient Future,” the Forum will bring together African Heads of State and U.S. and African business and government leaders to advance mutually beneficial partnerships that create jobs and drive inclusive and sustainable growth on both sides of the Atlantic.

Peace and Security: There will be a Peace, Security, and Governance forum, with representatives of development, defense, and diplomacy arms will talk about the linkages between democratic institutions and governance and long-term peace and prosperity.

Trade, Health, etc: An African Growth and Opportunity Act ministerial will also be convened by United States Trade Representative, as well as a health ministerial to look at how both parties could partner to build more resilient and equitable health systems to address both current and future health challenges. It will be important for African leaders to discuss the form that African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) will take after its expiration in 2025 and how its successor will fit into the new African Continental Free Trade Area.

Climate: A session with foreign ministers will also be held on supporting conservation, climate adaptation, and a just energy transition, as well as a U.S.- Africa civil and commercial space forum to discuss shared objectives on the climate crisis, promoting responsible behavior and strengthening cooperation on science and commercial space activities.

Food Security: A special session of the summit will be focused on addressing food security and food systems, one of the most crucial issues that Africa needs to invest in as a matter of urgency but also with a long-term perspective and on which the United States can be a great partner.  

Other Side Events: Several nonstate actors are planning different thematic meetings alongside the official gathering to influence the outcomes of the Summit. Learn more about those meetings here.

Which Priorities for Africa?

The upcoming US-Africa leaders’ Summit should focus on a comprehensive long-term vision for a strong and strategic US – Africa relationship to achieve the collective prosperity of American and African people. Such a relationship should be built on absolute mutual respect and shared values.

In the framework of the ongoing Summit Diplomacy around Africa involving various political blocs, the Continent should always ensure that the 7 Aspirations of its Agenda 2063 are being taken care of. Our leaders must clearly articulate these in the upcoming Washington discussions.

Here are 4 of the most crucial issues that the Summit should prioritize

1/ Food Security: The embarrassing paradox on this matter is that despite having more than 60% of the world’s fertile land, Africa remains a major importer of food, spending $35 billion annually on food imports. The war in Ukraine is cutting off some supplies to the continent, so if nothing is done, millions more Africans are in danger of falling into extreme poverty and malnutrition. The direct implication of higher food prices will be that fewer African households will be able to afford decent daily meals. Food-insecure households in the continent will be left much further behind. Consumption rates will fall, savings will be depleted, debt will increase, and assets will be liquidated, and all these have the risk of increasing instability in the continent. We have plenty of land in Africa, but most farmers still use rudimentary instruments for Agriculture. The agri-food industry is poorly developed in Africa and is mainly characterized by small-scale processing of agricultural products, which is provided by small units with very limited capacity.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has a Strategy for Agriculture Transformation in Africa as part of its High5. During its recent annual meeting in Accra, Ghana, the AfDB launched a 1.5 billion USD facility to finance food purchases for cash-strapped governments as prices rise quickly. It is urgent to prioritize investment in agriculture now at national and regional levels. It is time for Africa to feed itself. The continent needs resources to do so, and the US can assist both financially and technically.

2/ Development Finance:  Stopping the Illicit Financial Flows to boost industrialization: Every year, $89 billion leaves the African continent as Illicit Financial Flows, according to the UNCTAD. These are movements of money and assets across borders that are illegal in source, transfer, or use. It includes illicit capital getting out of the continent, tax and commercial practices like wrong invoicing of trade shipments, and criminal activities such as illegal markets, corruption, or theft.

ODA vs. IFFs: The shocking fact is that the billions lost annually to IFFs are almost equal to the Official Development Assistance (ODA) and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) altogether. These are missed development opportunities. So, Africa loses significantly more cash to capital flight than it obtains from development aid, external borrowing, or foreign direct investment. Stopping illicit financial flows requires international cooperation and actions both within the continent and outside. Every dollar that leaves the continent is a missed opportunity to invest in areas like agriculture, food security, health and education services, and infrastructure.

Commissioned by the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, a High-Level Panel led by President Thabo Mbeki made practical recommendations to tackle the IFFs.  We need to go back to those recommendations, implement them fully and pull out substantial resources to finance our development plans.

The United States Government has strong leverage to support this process, so, the upcoming Summit should address capital flight from Africa as a critical issue for the future of the continent and the global community.

3/ Youth: Job and skill development: The age structure of our population has an important impact on our economic development. The “demographic dividend” refers to economic benefits arising from a significant increase of working-aged adults vis-a-vis those who are dependents. These working-age adults must be healthy, educated, trained, skilled, and have decent jobs, and other economic opportunities should be created to meet their demands. Having a youthful population is not enough to catalyze development and prosperity.  All African countries should effectively implement the AU Roadmap on harnessing the demographic dividend in Africa.

4/ Conflicts: Beyond Military Solutions: The AU itself has identified more than 20 current conflicts in the countries that make up the Union. 113 million people in Africa are currently in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. The root causes of most conflicts in Africa are to be found essentially in extreme poverty, deep structural inequalities, inefficient management of natural resources, and climate change, among others. Military operations alone will not bring peace to Africa. We need to prioritize addressing the governance crisis, promote inclusive participation in politics, provide social services and boost development. Military interventions should only be at the service of this approach.

An accountability Mechanism to ensure implementation of the commitments of the US – African Summit

Unlike some of the other Summits (TICAD, FOCAC, EU-AU, etc.) The US-Africa Summit does not have a structured follow-up, implementation, and accountability process. The upcoming gathering should look at this closely and come up with a mechanism for mutual accountability that is inclusive and involves civil society organizations.  

Today it is difficult to track precisely what has been done with the commitments adopted at the Obama Summit in 2014. Having 50 heads of state and governments with big delegations flying individual jets to Washington has an important cost for the continent and the world. This Summit should lead to concrete and traceable actions that will have real impacts on the populations of both the US and Africa.

Watch this space for more updates on the upcoming Leaders’ Summit.

Your comments and suggestions are also welcome on this site or directly to my email address: Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com or Assogbavi@me.com.

If you would like to continue receiving my articles, follow this blog at the bottom left of this page.

1 Comment Posted on Africa, African Politics, african union, Civic Space

Active Citizenship for an Effective Development Process in Africa

This is the summary of a paper I presented today 1st September 2021 at the University of Johannesburg, South Africa, during the conference on “Good governance, participatory democracy, and social justice: Civil society as an agent of change and innovation in Africa”

Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen

My main point for the 10 minutes I have, is to demonstrate how citizens’ participation in governance, which includes accountability from power holders, could make a big difference, and shorten our journey to development, reduces corruption, and obviously reduce inequality and poverty.

I will quickly look at it from a national angle to regional and continental perspectives and I will conclude with a few recommendations on how we can remove obstacles to active citizens’ participation.  

The realization of an integrated, peaceful, and economically developed Africa needs the full involvement of all segments of our society. It cannot be left in the hands of the only politicians holding office.

The conduct of national, regional, and pan African affairs should make room, both institutionally and informally for the participation of citizens as individual and their formations, in groups.

Our continental Agenda 2063 itself, recognizes that people’s ownership and mobilization are crucial,… as critical enablers to concretize Africa’s aspirations. So, for a prosperous and democratic society, the state, and a well-organized civil society should be seen as the two sides of the same coin. They complement each other. Civil society must be seen as a reservoir of social capital, capable of contributing into all aspects of national, regional and continental development.

The evidence is clear. We have seen it ! Citizens’ engagement with their leaders improves the delivery of inclusive, accessible, and responsive public service. These include the provision of healthcare, safe water, quality education and decent jobs etc…. Today, looking at the challenges that our continent is facing, supporting democratic accountability and participation towards, a people-driven development has never been more urgent.

If we exclude or limit citizens from policy development, we will experience poor political and policy accountability mechanisms. Poor accountability leads to service failure, abandoned projects, waste, institutional inefficiencies and, will further exacerbate poverty…. That is why, my organization, the ONE campaign focuses its entire actions on citizens participation, active citizenship!!!

We identify recruit, train, mobilize and provide platforms for grassroots campaigners and their formations, to engage with political leaders and policymakers in order to catalyse change.

The influence of civil society in national and continental policy making does not diminish the relevance of governmental or inter-governmental processes, rather, citizens’ actions enhance and inform it.

If we look at the area of human security, for example, because of their immersion within the society, civil society organizations have vocation, and the ability to contribute to peace building initiatives and social cohesion.

In conflict affected area, Civil Society has shown its capacity to organise the collection, analysis, and evaluation of first-hand information, allowing the identification of the sources of potential tensions as well as emerging conflicts.

While traditional conflicts were well understood by diplomats and specialists in political science, addressing adequately new conflicts, requires much more on-the-ground understanding, new skills of social and cultural analysis, the active involvement of communities and their leaders, links to vulnerable groups, and new ways of working. Most of the time, civil society organisations have unique capacities in all those areas.

At national level

Unfortunately, we have been facing a reality in which, too many countries on the continent, have adopted and continue to adopt national legislations reducing civic space. There are increased control and undue restrictions on the formation and the activities of CSOs.

Some governments perceive CSOs as economic saboteurs, inciters of violence, or, an extension of political opposition parties or even, agents of foreign interest.

The reality is that since 2012, new restrictive CSOs laws have been adopted in more than 30 countries in Africa. Limited civic space, restricts the ability of citizens to participate in public life, and speak truth to power. This constrains one of society’s primary tools to prevent political capture of the state and its resources.

Of course, promoting civic space does not tacitly imply that civil society should be unregulated and free from government oversight. We are not saying that. On the contrary, reasonable regulation is legitimate, necessary and can enhance effectiveness and accountability in the sector. Yet regulations must not be overly burdensome, driven by political motives, and design to shot down independent voices.

Africa has a proud history of civic activism.  social movements and activists were a vital component of most independence struggles, and, civil society was a driving force behind state formation and state building.

This should continue as we face new challenge. Unfortunately, CSOs are under threat!!! Especially at national level.

At Regional Level

Civil society and coalitions that are targeting regional and pan African institutions have an important role to play as a complement and a backup to national groups. They are less exposed to risks compared to national CSOs and in many cases they can really contribute, influence and pressurize member states through regional and continental bodies on regional policy issues.

While this is important, we know that, the actual implementation of decisions happens at country level, Fundamental changes in people’s life happens at national level so we should mobilize, and regroup to stand strongly against any shrinking or even shifting of civic space in our countries.   

It is then important that the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities step in, this unfortunate trend.

So, what can we do?

At continental and regional levels, we do have a strong normative framework!

The entire transformation of the OAU to the AU is justified by the importance of citizens’ participation. Other Regional bodies such as ECOWAS, SADC, EAC etc, give ways legally to CSOs participation and constitutions of many member states recognize that organized civil society is a legitimate and authentic expression of fundamental human rights…. But then, laws being made on political consideration come to mess things up…

A few suggestions:

  1. We need to first, push for a moratorium of restrictive CSO law in Africa, and bring the debate to a regional and pan Africa levels….
  2. A few progressive member states should table the issue in the regional debate then take it to continental discussion: South Africa, Botswana, Senegal, Zambia, Nigeria etc… could play a leading role. There are reasons to do so…. We cannot reach the Africa we want, the Africa that is described in the Agenda 2063…. We can’t get there without a genuine citizens participation…  
  3. I know there have been a number of analysis of existing restrictive laws but I believe we need an independent continental taskforce to be commissioned by the AU to look at the situation, review laws and regulations that affect civil society organizations and make a report to the Assembly of Union for a progressive decision.
  4. CSOs on their side need to regroup on this matter and organize…. Not agonize.
  5. I really want to believe that this gathering, the CSO Conference constitute the beginning of a continental revolution to save Civic Space…

I thank you !!!

3 Comments Posted on AfCFTA, Africa, African Politics, african union, AU Summit, AUSummit

African Union Summit Decisions in 5 Points

Dear Friends

Here are the key outcomes (unofficial) of the just-ended summit of Heads of State and Government of the African Union held in Addis Ababa 8 – 10 February 2020. While the theme of the year 2020 is “Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”, no concrete decision has been taken on the matter besides the acknowledgment of the Orientation Concept Note on the theme and a request by the Assembly of the Union for a comprehensive report on the implementation of the AU Master Roadmap at the end of the year. South Africa offered to host an extraordinary Summit end of May 2020 on Silencing the Guns. In my last blog, I have suggested 7 prerequisites for the guns to be silenced in Africa.

1/ LEADERSHIP

Chairperson of the African Union for 2020: President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa

Chairperson of the African Union for 2021: President Felix Tshisekedi of DRC

Chairperson of NEPAD Heads of State and Government Orientation Committee HSGOC: President Paul Kagame, of Rwanda elected to replace President Macky Sall of Senegal

AU Champion for Financial Institutions: President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of Ghana, to provide political leadership and awareness to accelerate their establishment as scheduled in the First Ten-Year Implementation Plan of Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want.

See other Champions here.

2/ INSTITUTIONAL REFORM OF THE AFRICAN UNION

  • AU Commission to submit to the 34th Ordinary Session of the Assembly (Feb 2021), after due consideration by the Executive Council, practical proposals for rationalizing the Agenda and the Program of Work of the Assembly, as well as streamlining the program of meetings and side events. of the Assembly and the Executive Council.
  • The Executive Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) has a delegated authority to consider and adopt provisionally the Rules of Procedures of the Assembly and the Statute of the Commission during its 37th Ordinary Session in June/July 2020;
  • The Protocol on the Relations between the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) is adopted and the Chairperson of the Commission authorized to sign the Protocol on behalf of the African Union;
  • The following eminent Persons have been appointed to assist for the AU Senior Leadership job profiles, competency requirements and assessment process: a) Central Africa: H.E Yang Philemon (Cameroon) b) East Africa: Amb. Konjit Sinegiorgis (Ethiopia) c) Southern Africa: Amb. Tuliameni Kalomoh (Namibia) d) West Africa:   Hon. Hassan Bubacar Jallow (The Gambia). North Africa to nominate 1 representative to join the group.

Read my previous articles on the AU Reform here.

New Structures of the following organs have been adopted:

  • African Union Commission Departmental Structure;
  • Continental Operational Centre – (Khartoum);
  • African Centre for the Study and Research on Migration – (Mali);
  • African Migration Observatory (the Observatory) – (Morocco);
  • African Union Mechanism For Police Cooperation (Afripol) – (Algeria);
  • AU Centre for Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (AUCPCRD) – (Egypt);
  • Secretariat of African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child (ACERWC) – (Lesotho);
  • African Observatory of Science, Technology and Innovation (AOSTI) – (Equatorial Guinea).

The Executive Council got delegated authority to appoint (not only to elect) members of the following AU Organs and Institutions:  

  1. African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights;
  2. African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child;
  3. African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights;
  4. African Union Advisory Board on Corruption;
  5. African Union Commission on International Law;
  6. President and Vice President of the Pan African University; and
  7. African Space Agency.

  3/ AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA (AfCFTA)

  • Mr. Wamkele Mene (South Africa) is appointed as Secretary-General of the African Continental Free Trade Area for a four-year term. The Permanent Secretariat of the AfCFTA to start operating by 31 March 2020
  • AfCFTA Council of Ministers to have an Extraordinary Summit on 30 May 2020 to approve all instruments required for the start of trading under the AfCFTA on 1 July 2020. South Africa to host the Summit
  • 6 Countries that made reservations (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) decided to “compromise their national interests in the interest and solidarity of the African continent to join the rest of the States Parties in implementing the modalities on tariff liberalization”.
  • AfCFTA shall not accept requests for observer status from States that are not Member States of the African Union

4/ LEGAL INSTRUMENTS & ELECTION

The following Legal Instruments have been adopted:

  1. Statute of the African Peer Review Mechanism;
  2. Rules of Procedure of the Heads of State and Government of Participating States of the African Peer Review Mechanism;
  3. Protocol on Relations between the AU and the Regional Economic Communities;
  4. Rules of Procedures of the Mid-Year Coordination Meeting;
  5. Statute for the Establishment of the African Centre for the Study and Research on Migration;
  6. Statute for the Establishment of African Migration Observatory;
  7. Statute for the Establishment of Continental Operational Centre in Sudan for Combating Irregular Migration.

Election:

The following 10 Members have been elected for the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union for a 2-year term starting from April 2020:

  1. Cameroon: Central
  2. Chad: Central
  3. Djibouti: Eastern
  4. Ethiopia: Eastern
  5. Egypt: Northern
  6. Malawi: Southern
  7. Mozambique: Southern
  8. Benin: Western
  9. Ghana: Western
  10. Senegal: Western

The New PSC (from 1st April 2020) will be composed of:  Algeria, Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Senegal.

5/ CALENDAR

  • 34th AU Summit: 6 & 7 February 2021 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 38th Session of the Executive Council: 3 & 4 February 2021 in Addis Ababa
  • Extraordinary Summit of Silencing the Guns: May 2020 in South Africa
  • Extraordinary Summit on AfCFTA: 30 May 2020, in South Africa
  • 37th Session of the Executive Council: July 2020, N’Djamena, Chad
  • Next Mid-Year Coordination Meeting between the AU and the RECs: 4 July 2020 in N’Djamena, Chad. AU Commission to consult with the RECs, Regional Mechanisms and Member States with a view to finalize the detailed proposal for an effective division of labor between the AU and RECs and present it to the 2020 Mid-Year Coordination meeting, after due consideration by the 37th Ordinary Session of the Executive Council.

Please send me your comments and suggestions via email to Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com or what’s App/Telegram to +19172160155

If you would like to continue receiving my articles, follow this blog at the bottom left side of this page.

Leave a comment Posted on Africa, African Politics, african union, AU Summit, Uncategorized

Les Dirigeants Africains Peuvent-ils Faire Taire les Armes en 2020 Comme Promis? 7 Prérequis Incontournables

English version here 

Les Chefs d’État de l’Union africaine se réuniront prochainement pour leur 33eme session ordinaire prévue pour les 9 et 10 février 2020 à Addis-Abeba, en Éthiopie.

Comme d’habitude, ceci est le premier de ma série de réflexions et d’analyses que je partagerai sur ce blog www.assodesire.com  avant et après le Sommet.

Le thème de l’année 2020 est «Faire taire les armes: créer des conditions propices au développement de l’Afrique». J’ai eu l’honneur de contribuer à ce débat depuis 2017 à l’Union africaine sur invitation du Conseil de paix et de sécurité de l’Union comme personne ressource, à plusieurs de ses sessions sur la question.

Dans leur déclaration solennelle du 50e anniversaire de l’Union africaine, les Chefs d’État et de Gouvernement africains se sont engagés «à atteindre l’objectif d’une Afrique sans conflits, à faire de la paix une réalité pour tous nos peuples et à débarrasser le continent des guerres, conflits,  violations des droits de l’homme, des catastrophes humanitaires, et prévenir le génocide ».

Silencing... French image

En novembre 2017, le Conseil de paix et de sécurité a adopté une « feuille de route traitant des étapes pratiques pour faire taire les armes à l’horizon 2020 ». La feuille de route a également été approuvée par le Sommet des Chefs d’État. La Feuille de route reconnaît qu’au-delà des efforts politiques et militaires en cours, il y a un besoin urgent d’interventions structurelles dans le domaine du développement socio-économique, pour tenir compte des questions de gouvernance, des jeunes et des femmes, de l’emploi et de l’éducation, du changement climatique et d’autres facteurs pertinents.

Qu’est-ce qui pousse les individus et groupes d’individus  à détenir et faire confiance aux armes?

Aujourd’hui, seulement 1/3 de toutes les armes légères en circulation sont aux mains des forces de sécurité légalement constituées. Les 2/3 sont détenues illégalement par des acteurs non étatiques ou des individus, ce qui est préoccupant car, l’utilisation de ces armes affecte directement et indirectement des centaines de milliers de personnes et compromet gravement nos engagements en faveur du développement durable.

Chaque année, la Commission de l’Union africaine présente un rapport sur l’état de la paix et de la sécurité sur le continent à l’Assemblée des Chefs d’État, et des décisions sont prises en conséquence, mais la paix ne se fait toujours pas voir. Dans de nombreux cas, les gens détiennent, gardent et font confiance aux armes, parce que leurs divers problèmes récurrents restent non résolus par les détenteurs du pouvoir.

Les institutions africaines doivent se comporter différemment

Les détenteurs d’armes illégales sur notre continent ne considèrent pas leurs propres actions comme illégales mais plutôt légitimes contre des problèmes tels que le partage inéquitable des ressources nationales, la confiscation du pouvoir d’État et des ressources d’État par un individu ou un groupe d’individus, des formes modernes de changements anticonstitutionnels de gouvernement qui se manifestent aujourd’hui par des élections frauduleuses ou «cosmétiques» pour se maintenir au pouvoir, souvent avec la bénédiction déguisée  de certaines de nos institutions régionales et continentales à travers l’observation des élections qui ne portent principalement que sur les opérations de vote, et qui sont toujours «déclarées libres et équitables».

Si nous maintenons cette façon de conduire nos affaires, je crains que nous ne revenions ici à la fin de 2020 ou même 2030, seulement pour réaliser que les armes ne sont pas réduites au silence sur notre continent. Cela veut dire que le voyage vers notre Agenda 2063 deviendra plus long que prévu et les promesses contenues dans l’Agenda 2030 ne seront que de beaux rêves. En conséquence, la crise de confiance de nos populations – en particulier les jeunes – envers nos institutions, les instances régionales et continentales, va plutôt augmenter. Les populations affectées et marginalisées continueront bien sûr de ne faire confiance qu’aux armes.

Je dois insister sur le fait que la modification des constitutions nationales aux fins de garantir des mandats présidentiels supplémentaires ou illimités, renforcés par des élections injustes, constitue un réel risque de fragilité qui ne contribuera pas à faire taire les armes en Afrique. Pour que la campagne «Faire taire les armes» atteigne ses objectifs, nous devons faire les choses différemment. Nous devons être plus courageux si nous voulons voir des résultats différents.

Nos institutions continentales et régionales devraient avoir le pouvoir et l’autorité de faire un monitoring objectif de la performance des États membres dans la mise en œuvre de nos valeurs partagées qui sont contenues dans les nombreuses décisions, cadres d’action, traités, etc adoptés . Il devrait y avoir un mécanisme solide de sanction pour violation de nos valeurs partagées. Les sanctions ne doivent pas seulement viser le non-paiement des contributions financières. Je ne vois pas d’autre moyens pour changer l’Afrique et y assurer la paix et la sécurité.

Curieusement, l’Assemblée des Chefs d’Etat de l’Union Africaine dans sa dernière décision prise au Niger en juillet 2019 sur «l’Année pour faire taire les armes» a souligné le lien entre la bonne gouvernance, la paix, la stabilité et le développement et a reconnu que ces concepts sont intimement liés et ne peuvent pas être traités les uns sans les autres.

Ça ne commence pas forcément par les armes

La disponibilité des armes ne crée pas nécessairement des conflits. Mais leur prolifération et leur circulation incontrôlée peuvent entraîner une propagation plus rapide de la violence et amplifier leurs effets dévastateurs. Bien entendu, les pays sont moins sûrs si les armes sont facilement disponibles. Cependant, les conflits en cours en Afrique n’ont pas commencé simplement parce que des armes étaient disponibles. En fait, les armes sont arrivées plus tard dans la plupart des cas parce que les problèmes ne sont pas résolus.

7 Prérequis pour faire taire les armes en Afrique

Voici quelques conditions préalables clés que l’Union africaine, les États membres, les organismes régionaux, les citoyens et leurs groupes ainsi que les partenaires devraient rechercher si nous voulons vraiment faire taire les armes:

1 / La constitution et les lois de tous les États membres de l’Union africaine garantissent tous les droits civils et politiques à tous les citoyens sans discrimination. Cela signifie également que des manifestations pacifiques peuvent avoir lieu chaque fois que les citoyens ne sont pas satisfaits de la conduite des affaires publiques, et sans intimidation ni violence contre les citoyens.

2 / Les systèmes de justice de tous les États membres sont indépendants et exempts de pressions indues de la part de l’exécutif dans leur fonctionnement. Les auteurs de violations des droits de l’homme et les criminels sont effectivement poursuivis quel que soit leur statut social et politique et la réparation des victimes est assurée au niveau national… Si cela se produit constamment, la Cour pénale internationale n’aura plus grand chose à faire…Souvenons-nous que sans justice et sans redevabilité, les gens perdront confiance en tout sauf en les armes.

3 / Les institutions étatiques mettent en place des mécanismes socio-économiques et juridiques pour lutter contre les inégalités, l’extrême pauvreté et la corruption à tous les niveaux. Les flux financiers illicites sont considérablement réduits… De gros investissements sont réalisés à partir des ressources nationales, soutenues par la coopération internationale Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud, pour assurer les services sociaux essentiels, principalement l’éducation, les infrastructures et les soins de santé à tous les citoyens.

4 / Des élections crédibles sont regulierement tenues et gérées par des commissions électorales indépendantes sans aucune ingérence, et les résultats du vote reflètent le véritable choix de la majorité mais, les minorités sont respectées, délibérément protégées et ont la possibilité de participer aux affaires publiques à travers différentes autres institutions et par les lois et les règlements. Cela conduira naturellement à une situation où les élections seront davantage influencées par des programmes politiques et non par des origines ethniques. Les perdants des élections, y compris les anciens Chefs d’État ou les Chefs de l’opposition, sont traités avec dignité, respectés et bénéficient de la protection de l’État, mais ils sont tenus responsables s’ils ont commis de crimes.

5 / Des programmes innovants créent des opportunités d’éducation et de formation diverses et de qualité. Le secteur privé est réglementé, accompagné et encouragé pour créer de nouvelles opportunités d’emploi pour les jeunes. Les institutions publiques garantissent l’égalité des chances aux citoyens, sans discrimination d’être employés et engagés dans les affaires publiques.

6 / Le Traité de l’Union africaine sur la libre circulation des personnes et des biens est ratifié et pleinement mis en œuvre sur tout le continent. Le passeport panafricain ou même une carte d’identité africaine standardisée est délivrée rapidement sur demande aux citoyens. Ainsi, l’interaction entre les peuples de différentes nationalités et régions du continent catalyse d’importantes opportunités d’apprentissage, crée une synergie et stimule notre intégration économique. Les jeunes ne ressentent plus le besoin d’immigrer vers l’extérieur. Aucun décès n’est enregistré en Mer Méditerranée ou dans le désert du Sahara et une bonne partie de la diaspora rentre au bercail pour participer à la reconstruction du continent.

7 / L’Union africaine regagne la confiance de ses citoyens et devient une organisation véritablement axée sur les citoyens, et efficace pour assurer la mise en œuvre de ses décisions par les États membres. L’espace civique est garanti pour que les citoyens et leurs groupes participent à la vie politique. Cela signifie que l’UA a déclaré illégales toutes les lois draconiennes votées, empêchant la société civile d’opérer normalement dans les Etats membres. La liberté d’association est respectée mais les ONG sont redevables pour leurs actions.

Si tous ces prérequis sont observés, les armes seront sûrement réduites au silence en Afrique.

Observez cet endroit!!!

Je partagerai bientôt ma note d’information sur les autres questions clés de l’ordre du jour du Sommet à venir.

Veuillez m’envoyer vos commentaires et suggestions par e-mail à Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com ou sur What’sApp / Telegram au +19172160155

3 Comments Posted on African Politics, african union, AU Summit, Uncategorized

Can African Leaders Silence the Guns in 2020 as Promised? 7 Unavoidable Prerequisites!

La version en Français est ici

Dear Friends

The Heads of State of the African Union will soon meet for their 33rd Ordinary Session scheduled for the 9th and 10th February 2020 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

As usual, this is the first of my series of reflections and analysis to be shared on this blog www.assodesire.com  in the lead up to the Summit and after.

The theme of the year 2020 is “Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”. I have had the honor to contribute to this debate several times since 2017 at the African Union as an invited Guest Speaker at the Peace and Security Council of the Union to its sessions on the issue.

In their Solemn Declaration of the 50th Anniversary of the African Union, African Heads of State and Government have committed themselves “to achieve the goal of a conflict-free Africa, to make peace a reality for all our people and to rid the continent of wars, civil conflicts, human rights violations, humanitarian disasters, and violent conflicts and to prevent genocide.” They further pledged “not to bequeath the burden of conflicts to the next generation of Africans and undertake to end all wars by 2020”.

Theme 2020 pictureIn November 2017, the Peace and Security Council adopted a Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to silencing the guns by 2020. The Roadmap has been also endorsed by the Assembly of Heads of State. The Roadmap recognizes that, beyond the ongoing political and military efforts, there is a need for structural interventions in the area of socio-economic development, to allow for issues of governance, youth and women, employment and education, climate change and other pertinent factors to play constructive roles in the efforts to silencing the guns in Africa.

Why are people holding and trusting the guns?

Only 1/3 of all small arms in circulation today are in the hands of legally constituted security forces. The remaining 2/3 are held illegally by non-state groups or individuals and this is cause for concern because, the use of these weapons, directly and indirectly, affects hundreds of thousands of people and severely undermines our commitments for sustainable development.

Every year, the African Union Commission presents a report on the state of peace and security in the continent to the Assembly of Heads of State, and decisions are made accordingly but peace is still not happening. People are holding, keeping and trusting the guns, mostly because their various recurrent problems remain unsolved by power holders.

African institutions must do business differently

Illegal weapon bearers in our continent do not consider their own actions as illegal, but rather legitimate against issues like the inequitable sharing of national resources, the confiscation of state power and state resources by an individual or group of individuals, modern forms of unconstitutional change of government manifested today by fraudulent or “cosmetic elections” to ensure additional or unlimited terms on power, often with the hidden blessing of some of our regional and continental bodies through election observation that mostly look at just the voting operations, often “declared free and fair”.

If we stick to the current way of doing business, I am afraid we will come back here at the end of 2020 or even 2030 or later, only to realize that guns are not silenced in our continent. This means that the journey to our Agenda 2063 will become longer than planned and the promises contained in the Agenda 2030 will remain beautiful dreams. As a result, the mistrust of our populations – especially the youth – and in our institutions, regional and continental bodies, will rather increase. Affected and marginalized populations will continue trusting nothing else but the guns.

I should insist that changing national constitutions in order to ensure additional or unlimited presidential terms, reinforced by unfair elections constitute a real risk for fragility that will not help to silence the guns in Africa. So, for the “Silencing the Guns” Campaign to happen, we must do things differently. We must do something courageous and probably painful if we want to see different results.

Our continental and regional bodies should be given power and authority to objectively monitor member states’ performance in implementing our adopted shared values contained in the numerous progressive decisions, frameworks, treaties adopted by the African Union.  There should be a serious sanction mechanism to be used in case of violation of our values on which the African Union was built. Sanctions should not be limited to the non-payment of financial contributions to the Union. I see no other ways to change Africa and ensure peace and security.

Curiously, the Assembly of the Union in its last decision taken in Niger in July 2019 on the “Year of Silencing the Guns” underscored the nexus between good governance, peace, stability and development and recognized that these concepts are thoroughly intertwined and cannot be considered exclusive of each other.

It does not necessarily start with the guns

The availability of arms does not necessarily create conflicts. But their proliferation and their uncontrolled circulation can lead to a more rapid spread of violence and, magnify their devastating effects. Of course, countries are less safe if weapons are easily available. However, conflicts that are going on in Africa have not started just because arms were available. In fact, arms come in later in most of the cases because problems are not resolved. So silencing or collecting the guns can only succeed with a holistic approach.

7 Prerequisites to silence the guns in Africa

Here are some key prerequisites that the African Union, member states, regional bodies, citizens and their formations, as well as partners, should look after if we truly want to silence the guns in Africa:

1/ Constitutions and laws of all member states of the African Union guaranty all civil and political rights for all citizens with no discrimination. This also means that peaceful demonstrations can be held whenever citizens are not happy about the conduct of public affairs, without intimidation or violence against citizens.

2/ Justice systems of all member states are made independent and free of undue pressure from the executive in their functioning. Human rights violators and criminals are effectively prosecuted regardless of their social and political status and reparation for victims is ensured at the national level… If this happens constantly, the International Criminal Court will have nothing else to do… Let us remember that without justice and accountability people will lose their trust in everything except for the guns.

3/ State institutions set up socio-economic and legal mechanisms to tackle inequality and extreme poverty and to combat corruption at all levels. Illicit Financial Flows are significantly reduced and stopped… Heavy investments are made from national resources, supported by international South-South and North-South cooperation, to ensure essential services, mainly, quality education, infrastructures, and health care are accessible for all citizens.

4/ Credible elections are regularly held and managed by independent electoral boards with no interference, and the results of the pools reflect the true choice of the majority but, minorities are respected, deliberately protected and given the opportunity to participate in public affairs through different other institutions, by the law and affirmative actions. This naturally will lead to a situation where elections are influenced more by political agendas and not by ethnic origins.  Losers of elections including former Heads of state and opposition leaders are treated with dignity, respect and enjoy state protection, but they are held accountable if they are responsible for crimes.

5/ Innovative programs create diverse and quality education and training opportunities for the youth. The private sector is regulated, accompanied and encouraged to create increased job opportunities.  State institutions ensure equal opportunity to citizens with no discrimination, to be employed and engaged in public affairs.

6/ The African Union Treaty on Free Movement of People and Goods is universally ratified and fully implemented all over the continent… The Pan African Passport or even an African standardized ID is delivered promptly upon request to citizens. So, Interaction between peoples of different nationalities and regions of the continent catalyzes strong opportunities for learning, creates synergy, and boosts our economic integration. Young people feel no need to immigrate to Europe or America.  No death is recorded in the Mediterranean Sea or in the Sahara Desert and, a good part of the diaspora comes back home to take part in the reconstruction of the continent.

7/ The African Union gains trust from its citizens and becomes a truly people-driven body, and effective to ensure the implementation of its decisions by member states… A genuine and effective space is provided for citizens and their formations to be part of the decision-making process. But this means that the AU has declared illegal, all draconian laws against CSOs in member states, and pushed countries to abolish them, and replace them by provisions that respect universally agreed freedom of association principles while ensuring accountability of NGOs.

If we do these, guns will be surely silenced in Africa.

Watch this Space!!!

I will soon share my briefing note on the key other issues on the upcoming Summit agenda.

Please send me your comments and suggestions via email to Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com or what’s App/Telegram to +19172160155 

3 Comments Posted on AfCFTA, Africa, African Politics, african union, AU Summit, AU Summit Niamey, AU Summit Niger, AUSummit

African Continental Free Trade Area Launch: Opportunities and Challenges

Last update: 7 July 2019

In this blog, I am sharing 7 takeaways from the African Union Extraordinary Summit on the African Continental Free Trade Area, held in Niger on the 7th July 2019, but also some possible pitfalls that may obstruct or delay the implementation of the AfCFTA in Africa.

The idea of the an Africa Free trade area was first raised by Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, the then President of Ghana, during his famous speech at the creation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) on the 25th May 1963 in Addis Ababa, as part of his proposed business plan for African integration. In 2013, the African Union launched Agenda 2063 with 14 flagship projects including the establishment of an African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Adopted in Kigali, Rwanda in March 2018, the negotiated framework has entered into force on the 30th May 2019 and officially launched during a special Summit of Heads of State of the African Union in Niamey, Niger this 7th July 2019. As of today, 54 out of the 55 African Union Member States have signed the Treaty and 27 of them have ratified it, the latest being Nigeria and Benin at the launch ceremony of the operationalization phase of the Treaty. Eritrea is now the only African country that has not signed the Treaty. The launch of the AfCFTA  is probably the most important concrete step in the African integration project since the setting up of the OAU and its replacement of the AU.

7 Key Takeaways from the AU Summit:

AU Summit

  • Trading under the AfCFTA will commence on the 1st July 2020
  • Ghana has been chosen to host the continental Secretariat of the AfCFTA
  • 7th July will be officially celebrated as the Day of African Integration in commemoration of the historic operationalization launch of the AfCFTA
  • The following 5 operational instruments of the AfCFTA have been negotiated, adopted and launched together with the AfCFTA operationalization phase: A/The Portals of The Rules of Origin, B/The Online Negotiating Portal , C/The Monitoring and Elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers, D/The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and E/ The African Trade Observatory Dashboard.
  • The 2nd phase of the negotiations should end in December 2020 and the documents will be submitted to the AU Assembly for adoption. Phase 2 issues are investment, competition policy, and intellectual property rights. These will provide important complement to the Phase 1 issues of trade in goods and services.
  • AfCFTA aims to progressively reduce and eliminate customs duties and non-tariff barriers on goods. The goal is for 90% of products to have a zero duty across the continent. 6 countries have been allowed for 85% only for the first 15 years.
  • Afreximbank committed to support the AfCFTA with 25 Billion USD mostly for the establishment of the online payment platform which will result in 5 Billion USD savings in transaction costs annually.

About the African Continental Free Trade Area

AfCFTA pic

The Treaty establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area aims to 1/ Create a single continental market for goods and services, with free movement of business persons and investments, therefore, pave the way for accelerating the establishment of a continental customs union, 2/ Expand intra-Africa trade through better harmonization and coordination of trade liberalization, facilitation regimes and instruments across the continent, 3/ Resolve the challenges of multiple and overlapping memberships and expedite the regional and continental integration processes , 4/Enhance competitiveness at the industry and enterprise level through exploiting opportunities for scale production, continental market access and better reallocation of resources in Africa.

The African Continental Free Trade Area then provides an opportunity to promote policies and resources that could create conditions for harnessing Africa demographic dividend in the context of creating space for jobs, especially for the youth and economic diversification. This requires attention to expediting domestic capital formation and using capital market strategies to drive the creation and expansion of small and medium enterprises involving youth ownership.

If genuinely implemented, the AfCFTA will provide a framework to ease the cost of doing business within Africa. It will aggregate the very fragmented African market but will the continent quickly address non-tariff barriers, such as infrastructure backlogs, border corruption, heavy bureaucracy, poor communication means etc? Above all do we have enough to trade among ourselves with this ambitious trade agreement while our economies are mostly alike and largely dominated by the exportation of raw material? To take full advantage of the AfCFTA African leaders should deliberately and aggressively invest in industrialization without waiting. An initial focus should be on agriculture and agro-industry development.

If fully ratified, the AfCFTA will open the largest free trade zone in the world with a combined GDP of around $3 Trillion and more than 1.2 billion consumers. AfCFTA is expected to boost intra-Africa trade, which is less than 17% (70% in Europe, 50% in Asia). The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has estimated that intra-Africa trade would likely increase to 52.3 % by 2020 due to the AfCFTA.

Pitfalls that may threaten the implementation of the AfCFTA

The implementation of the AfCFTA is not going to be as easy as it looks in a continent currently fragmented in several economic/trade zones with a poor business infrastructure and with the existing numerous trade agreements with outside partners. The following issues are some of the gray areas that may delay the implementation of the AfCFTA beyond the July 2020 target date:

  • The treaty on free movement of people adopted even before the AfCFTA treaty is not attracting ratification from member states. As of end of June 2019 only 3 countries have ratified it. How can we trade without being able to move freely within the continent?
  • Will poorer countries with insufficient natural resources and landlocked benefit from the AfCFTA the same as mineral-rich countries that are in an advanced stage of industrialization? For example about 50% of Africa’s cumulative GDP is contributed by Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa only. Without a compensation mechanism for poorer and disadvantaged countries, will the argument of benefits from free trade be convincing for all? There is a need for comprehensive policy-preferential treatment for the most at-risk economies. As we move, Member sates should then build an efficient and participatory institutional architecture to avoid leaving some economies behind.
  • How will the 90% tariff line rule fairly apply if – as it is the case in some countries – a single product (oil, coffee, cocoa for example) represents more than 70% of all the country’s exportation?
  • What will happen to the existing specific and competitive  bilateral and multilateral trade agreements between African countries and current outside partners such as the European Union?

If you would like to continue receiving my articles, follow this blog at the bottom left of this page.

Please share the article within your network using the link. Your comments and suggestions are also welcome on this site or directly to my email address: Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com  or Assogbavi@me.com  .

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed on this blog are unequivocally personal! Current and previous employers not to be quoted under any circumstance.

1 Comment Posted on Africa, African Politics, african union, AU Summit

African Union Summit in Niger: Historic Rendezvous!

Last update: 1st July 2019

The African Union Heads of State will hold an extraordinary Summit on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the 7th July 2019 in Niamey, Niger. The Summit will be dedicated to the launch of the operational phase of the AfCFTA as well as its operational instruments.

The extraordinary Summit will be held in the margins of the inaugural session of the Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities (8th July) that replaces the previous mid-year AU Summit, as decided within the framework of the ongoing African Union reform.

The Executive Council of the AU (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) will have its ordinary session on the 4th & 5th July on the same occasion deliberate on important documents and reports of AU organs including most likely the 2020 budget of the Union the legal documents of the new African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), the theme of the year 2020 among other things.

In this personal blog I am sharing an overview of the key items on the Agenda of these important gatherings, the outcome of which would be a big step toward the  implementation of the Agenda 2063, the Africa we want.

The Launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area: What Expectations?

The Treaty establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area aims to 1/ Create a single continental market for goods and services, with free movement of business persons and investments, therefore, pave the way for accelerating the establishment of a continental customs union, 2/ Expand intra-Africa trade through better harmonization and coordination of trade liberalization, facilitation regimes and instruments across the continent, 3/ Resolve the challenges of multiple and overlapping memberships and expedite the regional and continental integration processes , 4/Enhance competitiveness at the industry and enterprise level through exploiting opportunities for scale production, continental market access and better reallocation of resources in Africa.

The African Continental Free Trade Area then provides an opportunity to promote policies  and resources that could create conditions for harnessing Africa demographic dividend in the context of creating space for jobs, especially for the youth and economic diversification. This requires attention to expediting domestic capital formation and using capital market strategies to drive the creation and expansion of small and medium enterprises involving youth ownership.

If genuinely implemented, the AfCFTA will provide a framework to ease the cost of doing business within Africa. It will aggregate the very fragmented African market  but,… will the continent quickly address non-tariff barriers, such as infrastructure backlogs, border corruption, poor communication means etc? Above all I am also wondering if we have enough to trade among ourselves with this ambitious trade agreement while our economies are mostly alike and largely dominated by the exportation of raw material. To take full advantage of the AfCFTA African leaders should deliberately and aggressively invest in industrialization without waiting. An initial focus should be on agriculture and agro-industry development.

The Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) entered into force on 30th May 2019 for the 24 countries that ratified it. 52 of the 55 AU Member states signed the AfCFTA. Only Benin, Eritrea and Nigeria have not signed the Treaty. If fully ratified, the AfCFTA will open the largest free trade zone in the world with a collective GDP of over $3 trillion and more than 1.2 billion consumers. AfCFTA is expected to boost intra-Africa trade, which accounts roughly for 17% only of all the continent’s exports. The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has estimated that intra-Africa trade would likely increase to 52.3 % by 2020 due to the AfCFTA.

The Extraordinary Summit

Hotel Niamey

Beside the launch of the operational phase of the AfCFTA, the AU Summit’s delegations to be hosted in the newly built Radisson Blu Hotel of Niamey are expected to launch the following operational instruments of the treaty.

  • Rules of Origin Portal
  • Tariff Concession Portals
  • Portal on Monitoring and Elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers
  • Digital Payments and Clearing System
  • African Trade Observatory Dashboard

The Niamey Summit will surely be one of the most attended  AU Summit by Heads of State and other personalities in recent time.  Special guests will likely include the Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres, the Director General of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevêdo, the Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Dr.  Mukhisa Kituyi, the President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export–Import Bank (AFREXIMBANK) Professor  Benedict Okey Oramah, the Executive Director of International Trade Center Dr. Arancha Gonzalez, the European Commissioner for International Cooperation and Development Neven Mimica among others.

The Summit will also consider and approve a set of other decisions coming from the Executive Council as part of the reform of the African Union.

On the Agenda of the Executive Council

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs will most likely discuss and eventually make decisions on the following:

  • The legal instruments of the new African Union Development Agency – NEPAD including the statutes and the rules of procedures of its governing structures
  • The new statutes of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM)
  • AU budget for 2020: the current draft budget is around 647 Million USD, more than 60% of which will be paid by external partners
  • The Theme of the year 2020. The current proposal is:“Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”
  • The Implementation of Agenda 2063
  • The African Court on Human and People’s Rights
  • The African Commission on Human and People’s Rights
  • The Challenges and Ratification/Accession and Implementation of the OAU/AU Treaties and decisions

In addition the Council will consider the agenda, working documents and expected outcomes of the Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities.

Discussions and decisions on the new departmental structure of the AU Commission in the framework of the African Union reform will likely be differed  to the February 2020 Summit.

Several side events are also on the Summit agenda.

The Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities: The way forward toward Effectiveness and Efficiency?

au-summit_banners_july2019_website

From now on, according to a decision of the Assembly of the Union, there will be only one ordinary AU Summit per year instead of the two Summits previously held. The Mid-year Summit has now become a Coordination Meeting with the Regional Economic Communities (RECS). The Permanent Representatives Committee (Ambassadors) and the Executive Council of the Union will normally convene as before, prior to the Coordination Meeting. In Niamey, the rules of procedure of the coordination meeting will be considered and eventually adopted. The Mid-Year Coordination Meeting will normally be the highest committee for the African Union and RECs to align their work and coordinate the implementation of the continental integration agenda. The rules of procedures to be discussed in Niamey will define the composition of the gathering, criteria for participation, the running of its business, powers and decision making mechanisms. These policies would have to be adopted ultimately by the Assembly of the Union.

Regional Economic Communities (RECs) are regional groupings of African States each lead by a Head of State or Government on a rotational basis.  Currently the African Union recognizes 8 RECs from the 5 geographical regions of the continent. They are seen as the building blocks of the African Union in its economic integration process. The 8 RECs are: AMU, CEN-SAD, COMESA, EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, IGAD and SADC.

The RECs work more and more closely with the African Union and are expected to serve their member States with the implementation of the regional integration agenda. The RECs were formed on either historical, political or economic basis. Their members are generally of more than one regional economic community and they operate at different levels of capacity and efficiency. You can read more about the RECs here.

The launch of the mid-year coordination meeting between the AU and the RECs carries the hope to deal with the cumbersome issue of overlap, duplication and sometime competition between the African Union and the RECs, to finally insure complementarity, subsidiarity and to use the comparative advantages  of each of the regional bodies vis a vis the African Union. It will also create an important platform to track the implementation of the African Union decisions at country level; more than 80% of which remain in the shelves untouched according to various reports.

If you would like to continue receiving my articles, follow this blog at the bottom left of this page.

Please share the article within your network using the link. Your comments and suggestions are also welcome on this site or directly to my email address: Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com or Assogbavi@me.com . 

Leave a comment Posted on Africa, African Politics, african union, Civic Space, Conflicts, Uncategorized

L’Union Africaine Suspend le Soudan: Quelles en sont les Conséquences ?

English version here 

En réponse à la répression sanglante le Lundi 3 Juin 2019, du sit-in des manifestants civils soudanais,  qui exigent des  militaires au pouvoir depuis la chute d’Omar Bashir , un gouvernement civil et démocratique, le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité (CPS) de l’Union Africaine a sorti ses muscles.

La 854eme Session du Conseil  a décidé, «conformément aux instruments pertinents de l’Union Africaine, en particulier l’Acte Constitutif de l’Union, le Protocole relatif à la création du Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité et la Charte Africaine de la Démocratie, des Elections et de la Gouvernance, de suspendre, avec effet immédiat, la participation de la République du Soudan à toutes les activités de l’UA, jusqu’à la mise en place effective d’une Autorité de transition sous conduite civile, seule voie à même de permettre au Soudan de sortir de la crise actuelle». C’est une décision sans appel, claire et non équivoque qui suscite quand même quelques questions juridiques, politiques et de clarification. Je vais en aborder quelques-unes dans ce blog.

AfricanUnionHeadquarters

Je rappelle que les affirmations de ce blog sont purement personnelles et n’engagent pas mes employeurs actuel ou passés.

 Quelles sont les implications directes de la suspension d’un Etat membre des Activités de l’Union Africaine ?

Les textes évoqués par le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité dans ses différentes sessions  sur la situation au Soudan n’ont pas donnés tous les détails  sur les conséquences d’une suspension d’un état membre.

Sur le plan politique Il faut reconnaitre que la suspension du  Soudan affaiblit la légitimité internationale, déjà fragile du Conseil militaire de transition au pouvoir. L’Union Africaine a un poids politique incontestable dont la décision influencerait certainement des partenaires  internationaux du Soudan.  Aucun régime politique ne voudrait être dans une situation de suspension d’une organisation de 55 états membres, la plus importante institution pan Africaine sur le continent. En outre, les violations odieuses des droits de l’homme qui ont conduit à cette suspension, notamment le viol présumé de femmes et de filles, ont rendu la situation encore plus sombre. Les Nations Unies ont également condamné le recours excessif à la force par les forces de sécurité à l’encontre de civils et ont appelé à une enquête indépendante.

Dans la pratique la suspension d’un état aux activités de l’Union implique que les représentants dudit état  ne seront plus invités  aux activités des organes de l’Union jusqu’à la levée de la suspension. Ils perdent naturellement  leurs droits de vote. L’état en question ne pourra pas non plus abriter de réunions des organes de l’Union. Tous les organes et programmes sont concernés.  Ses représentants élus dans les comités et groupes de travail n’y auront plus accès comme membres.  Il n’est cependant pas clair si les représentants de l’état suspendu peuvent être  autorisés  à siéger dans les séances non-fermées  comme observateurs et sans droit de vote. A mon avis si la séance admet des observateurs (non-états membres de l’UA), un représentant d’un état suspendu devrait pouvoir y assister sans avoir droit à la parole et au vote. Il faut quand-même préciser que la suspension d’un état des activités de l’Union n’arrête pas  l’appartenance de cet état  à l’Union Africaine. En conséquence l’état suspendu doit continuer d’honorer ses obligations vis-à-vis de l’Union telles que les cotisations au budget de l’Union. D’ailleurs c’est dans cet esprit que l’Union Africaine continuera d’accompagner le processus de normalisation en collaboration avec la Communauté économique régionale géographiquement concernée. Dans le cas d’espèce, c’est l’IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) dont fait partie le Djibouti, l’Erythrée, l’Ethiopie, le Kenya, la Somalie, le Soudan, le Sud Soudan et  l’Ouganda.

Quels en sont les effets sur les citoyens de l’état suspendu ?  La Déclaration de Lomé de Juillet 2000 sur les changements inconstitutionnels de gouvernement suggère qu’il  faut veiller à ce que les citoyens ordinaires du pays concerné ne souffrent pas de manière disproportionnée du fait de l’application de sanctions aux tenants du pouvoir. Néanmoins dans la pratique l’impact de la suspension sur les citoyens est inévitable surtout si la suspension dure dans le temps.  Par exemple la Centrafrique avait été suspendue pendant trois ans, mais j’imagine que ce qui importe le plus ici pour les citoyens soudanais c’est le soutien politique et moral que représente la décision du Conseil par rapport à leur droit légitime à l’avènement d’un état démocratique.  Le Conseil a notamment réaffirmé « la solidarité continue de l’Union Africaine avec le peuple soudanais dans ses aspirations à un cadre constitutionnel et à des institutions pouvant permettre à leur pays de connaitre des avancées dans ses efforts sur la voie de la transformation démocratique »

Pourquoi la suspension du Soudan n’as pas été automatique aussitôt après le coup d’Etat comme dans d’autres cas dans le passé ?

Le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité semble utiliser ce mécanisme au cas par cas  pour plusieurs raisons. La plus importante est que  le mécanisme de la Déclaration de Lomé et les autres instruments cités par le Conseil  avaient été rédigés dans un contexte de coups d’état classiques ou on ne connaissait pas tellement de soulèvements  populaires et les révolutions de la rue qui ont lieu de nos jours. Il est aussi vrai que l’espace démocratique s’est largement étendu en Afrique…  Il y a donc un problème de caractérisation des faits face à la  situation du Soudan aujourd’hui, mais aussi à celle de l’Egypte par le passé, de l’Algérie, du Zimbabwe etc. Il importe que l’Union Africaine se penche sur la définition du cadre d’intervention en cas de soulèvement populaire. Dans le cas du Soudan par exemple, le Conseil a  visiblement tenté de donner une chance aux militaires pour parvenir rapidement à un accord avec les civils, mais les évènements sanglants de cette semaine et l’absence de progrès dans les discussions ont fait changer la donne.

ETHIOPIA-ADDIS ABABA-18TH AU SUMMIT

Au-delà de la suspension du Soudan… le jeu des alliances avec ou sans l’Afrique.

D’aucuns se demandent si la suspension du Soudan des activités de l’Union Africaine est suffisante pour  faire courber les militaires au pouvoir.  Il faut déjà reconnaitre que le langage et la position du Conseil dans le cas soudanais est l’un des plus fermes de l’histoire. En plus, le Conseil menace qu’au cas où les militaires ne transféreront pas sans plus tarder, le pouvoir à une Autorité de transition sous conduite civile, le Conseil imposera automatiquement des mesures punitives aux personnes et entités faisant obstacle à la mise en place de l’Autorité de transition sous conduite civile. A l’ère où tout se mondialise y compris la justice et la redevabilité surtout en matière de droits de l’homme  personne ne veut prendre le risque  de faire face à ces éventualités.

Cependant, la tâche ne semble pas être si simple  dans une situation ou d’autres alliés du Soudan dans le continent et en dehors du continent  ne semblent pas aller dans la même direction que l’Union Africaine.  Il n’est donc pas étonnant de voir que dans son Communiqué, le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité dans un langage fort a souligné, « la primauté des initiatives entreprises par les pays africains dans la recherche d’une solution durable à la crise au Soudan et a réitéré  son appel à tous les partenaires pour qu’ils soutiennent les efforts de l’UA et de l’IGAD et s’abstiennent de toute action susceptible de compromettre les initiatives entreprises par l’Afrique ».

Même si le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies n’a pas pu s’entendre sur un texte commun et la conduite à tenir, une grande partie de la communauté internationale semble être alignée sur la position de l’Union Africaine. L’Union Africaine a en effet du potentiel et un poids politique assez important à ne pas négliger pour résolution du problème soudanais et bien d’autres sur le continent.

J’ai espoir que la raison prévaudra entre les parties prenantes soudanaises.  L’Afrique que nous voulons en dépens.

Si vous voulez continuer de recevoir mes blogs, abonnez-vous gratuitement   au bas à gauche de cette page.

Vos commentaires sont aussi les bienvenus sur ce site ou directement sur mon adresse email : assogbavi@me.com

Leave a comment Posted on Africa, African Politics, Civic Space, Conflicts, Uncategorized

African Union Suspended Sudan: What are the Consequences?

La version en Francais ici

In response to the bloody removal on Monday 3rd June, of the sit-in of Sudanese civilian protesters who are demanding a democratic government to the military in power since the fall of Omar Bashir, the African Union Peace and Security Council has pulled out its muscles yesterday 6 June 2019.

The 854th Session of the Council decided, “in line with the relevant AU instruments, in particular the AU Constitutive Act, the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, to suspend, with immediate effect, the participation of the Republic of Sudan in all AU activities until the effective establishment of a civilian-led Transitional Authority, as the only way to allow the Sudan to exit from its current crisis”. This decision is clear and unambiguous but it raises some legal,  political and practical questions. I will address some of them in this blog.

AfricanUnionHeadquarters

Please note that affirmations of this blog are purely personal and do not engage my current or past employers.

What are the direct implications of the suspension of a Member State from the activities of the African Union?

The instruments referred to by the Peace and Security Council (PSC) in its various sessions on the situation in Sudan have not given full details of the consequences of a suspension of a member state.

Political significance: It should be recognized that the suspension of Sudan weakens the already fragile international legitimacy of the ruling Transition Military Council. The African Union has an undeniable political weight and its decision will certainly influence international partners of Sudan. No political regime would enjoy to be in a situation of suspension from an organization of 55 member states, the most important Pan African institution on the continent. In addition, the heinous violation of human rights that led to this suspension, including alleged widespread rape of women and girls, made the picture even darker. The United Nations has also strongly condemned the violence and the use of excessive force by the security forces on civilians, and called for an independent investigation.

In practice the suspension of a state from the affairs of the Union implies that representatives of that State will no longer be invited to the activities of the organs of the Union until the lifting of the suspension. They naturally lose their voting rights. Nor can the State in question host meetings of the organs of the Union. All AU bodies and programs are concerned. Elected representatives of the suspended state in the various AU committees and working groups will no longer have access to them as members. It is unclear, however, whether suspended state officials may be allowed to sit in an open session as observers and without the right to vote. In my opinion, if the meeting admits observers (non-member states of the AU), a representative of the suspended state should be able to attend the meeting without the right to speak and to vote. However, it is necessary to specify that the suspension of a state of the activities of the Union does not stop the membership of the said state to the African Union. As a result, the suspended state must continue to honor its obligations to the Union, such as contributions to the Union budget. Moreover, it is in that spirit that the African Union will continue to support the normalization process in collaboration with the Regional Economic Community geographically concerned. In this case, it is IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) which includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.

What are the effects on citizens ?

The Lomé Declaration of July 2000 suggests that care must be taken to ensure that ordinary citizens of the affected country do not suffer disproportionately from the imposition of sanctions on those in power. Nevertheless in practice the impact of the suspension on the citizens is inevitable especially if the suspension lasts long. For example, the Central African Republic had been suspended for three years, but I can imagine that what is most important here for Sudanese citizens today is the political and moral support that the PSC decision represents for their legitimate right for a democratic state. In particular, the Council reaffirmed “the solidarity of the African Union with the Sudanese in their aspirations to constitutional order that will enable them to make progress in its efforts towards the democratic transformation of the country”.

ETHIOPIA-ADDIS ABABA-18TH AU SUMMIT

Why was Sudan’s suspension not automatic immediately after the coup as in other cases in the past?

The Peace and Security Council seems to use this mechanism on a case-by-case basis for several reasons. The most important is that, the mechanism of the Lomé Declaration and the other instruments cited by the Council had been drafted in the context of classic coups. Popular uprisings and street revolutions where not envisaged at that time. It is also true that nowadays the democratic space has spread widely in Africa so strong and persistent popular movements could not be ignored anymore … There is therefore a problem of characterization of the situation in Sudan today, but also that of Egypt a few years back, in Algeria, Zimbabwe etc. It is important for the African Union to look at defining the framework for action in the event of popular uprisings. In the case of Sudan, for example, the Council apparently tried to give the military a chance to reach an agreement with the civilians quickly, but the bloody events of this week and the lack of progress in the discussions had changed the situation.

Beyond the suspension of Sudan from AU activities and the game of alliances

Some question whether the suspension of Sudan from the activities of the African Union is sufficient to bend the ruling Transition Military Council. We should recognize that, already the language and position of the PSC is one of the firmest in history. In addition, the PSC threatens that, should the Transition Military Council fail to hand-over power to a civilian-led Transitional Authority, the PSC shall, without any further delay, automatically impose punitive measures on individuals and entities obstructing the establishment of the civilian-led Transitional Authority. There is also a move towards investigating the massive human rights violations. In a world where everything is globalizing, including justice and accountability, especially in the area of ​​human rights, no one wants to take the risk of facing these eventualities.

However, this does not seem to be so simple in a situation where other Sudanese allies within and outside the continent do not seem to be moving in the same direction as the African Union. It is therefore not surprising that in its Communiqué, the Peace and Security Council stressed “the primacy of African-led initiatives in the search for a lasting solution to the crisis in Sudan; and reiterated its call to all partners to support AU and IGAD efforts and refrain from any action that could undermine African-led initiatives”.

Even though the United Nations Security Council has not been able to agree on a common text and what to do, a large part of the international community seems to be aligned with the position of the African Union. The African Union has the potential and a significant political weight, to help solve the Sudanese problem and many others in the continent.

I hope that reason will prevail between the Sudanese stakeholders. We need that for the Africa we want.

If you want to continue receiving my blogs, follow this blog at the bottom left of this page.

Your comments are also welcome on this site or directly on my email address: assogbavi@me.com