Conflicts

Leave a comment Posted on June 7, 2019June 10, 2019 Africa, African Politics, african union, Civic Space, Conflicts, Uncategorized

L’Union Africaine Suspend le Soudan: Quelles en sont les Conséquences ?

English version here

En réponse à la répression sanglante le Lundi 3 Juin 2019, du sit-in des manifestants civils soudanais, qui exigent des militaires au pouvoir depuis la chute d’Omar Bashir , un gouvernement civil et démocratique, le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité (CPS) de l’Union Africaine a sorti ses muscles.

La 854eme Session du Conseil a décidé, «conformément aux instruments pertinents de l’Union Africaine, en particulier l’Acte Constitutif de l’Union, le Protocole relatif à la création du Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité et la Charte Africaine de la Démocratie, des Elections et de la Gouvernance, de suspendre, avec effet immédiat, la participation de la République du Soudan à toutes les activités de l’UA, jusqu’à la mise en place effective d’une Autorité de transition sous conduite civile, seule voie à même de permettre au Soudan de sortir de la crise actuelle». C’est une décision sans appel, claire et non équivoque qui suscite quand même quelques questions juridiques, politiques et de clarification. Je vais en aborder quelques-unes dans ce blog.

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Quelles sont les implications directes de la suspension d’un Etat membre des Activités de l’Union Africaine ?

Les textes évoqués par le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité dans ses différentes sessions sur la situation au Soudan n’ont pas donnés tous les détails sur les conséquences d’une suspension d’un état membre.

Sur le plan politique Il faut reconnaitre que la suspension du Soudan affaiblit la légitimité internationale, déjà fragile du Conseil militaire de transition au pouvoir. L’Union Africaine a un poids politique incontestable dont la décision influencerait certainement des partenaires internationaux du Soudan. Aucun régime politique ne voudrait être dans une situation de suspension d’une organisation de 55 états membres, la plus importante institution pan Africaine sur le continent. En outre, les violations odieuses des droits de l’homme qui ont conduit à cette suspension, notamment le viol présumé de femmes et de filles, ont rendu la situation encore plus sombre. Les Nations Unies ont également condamné le recours excessif à la force par les forces de sécurité à l’encontre de civils et ont appelé à une enquête indépendante.

Dans la pratique la suspension d’un état aux activités de l’Union implique que les représentants dudit état ne seront plus invités aux activités des organes de l’Union jusqu’à la levée de la suspension. Ils perdent naturellement leurs droits de vote. L’état en question ne pourra pas non plus abriter de réunions des organes de l’Union. Tous les organes et programmes sont concernés. Ses représentants élus dans les comités et groupes de travail n’y auront plus accès comme membres. Il n’est cependant pas clair si les représentants de l’état suspendu peuvent être autorisés à siéger dans les séances non-fermées comme observateurs et sans droit de vote. A mon avis si la séance admet des observateurs (non-états membres de l’UA), un représentant d’un état suspendu devrait pouvoir y assister sans avoir droit à la parole et au vote. Il faut quand-même préciser que la suspension d’un état des activités de l’Union n’arrête pas l’appartenance de cet état à l’Union Africaine. En conséquence l’état suspendu doit continuer d’honorer ses obligations vis-à-vis de l’Union telles que les cotisations au budget de l’Union. D’ailleurs c’est dans cet esprit que l’Union Africaine continuera d’accompagner le processus de normalisation en collaboration avec la Communauté économique régionale géographiquement concernée. Dans le cas d’espèce, c’est l’IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) dont fait partie le Djibouti, l’Erythrée, l’Ethiopie, le Kenya, la Somalie, le Soudan, le Sud Soudan et l’Ouganda.

Quels en sont les effets sur les citoyens de l’état suspendu ? La Déclaration de Lomé de Juillet 2000 sur les changements inconstitutionnels de gouvernement suggère qu’il faut veiller à ce que les citoyens ordinaires du pays concerné ne souffrent pas de manière disproportionnée du fait de l’application de sanctions aux tenants du pouvoir. Néanmoins dans la pratique l’impact de la suspension sur les citoyens est inévitable surtout si la suspension dure dans le temps. Par exemple la Centrafrique avait été suspendue pendant trois ans, mais j’imagine que ce qui importe le plus ici pour les citoyens soudanais c’est le soutien politique et moral que représente la décision du Conseil par rapport à leur droit légitime à l’avènement d’un état démocratique. Le Conseil a notamment réaffirmé « la solidarité continue de l’Union Africaine avec le peuple soudanais dans ses aspirations à un cadre constitutionnel et à des institutions pouvant permettre à leur pays de connaitre des avancées dans ses efforts sur la voie de la transformation démocratique »

Pourquoi la suspension du Soudan n’as pas été automatique aussitôt après le coup d’Etat comme dans d’autres cas dans le passé ?

Le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité semble utiliser ce mécanisme au cas par cas pour plusieurs raisons. La plus importante est que le mécanisme de la Déclaration de Lomé et les autres instruments cités par le Conseil avaient été rédigés dans un contexte de coups d’état classiques ou on ne connaissait pas tellement de soulèvements populaires et les révolutions de la rue qui ont lieu de nos jours. Il est aussi vrai que l’espace démocratique s’est largement étendu en Afrique… Il y a donc un problème de caractérisation des faits face à la situation du Soudan aujourd’hui, mais aussi à celle de l’Egypte par le passé, de l’Algérie, du Zimbabwe etc. Il importe que l’Union Africaine se penche sur la définition du cadre d’intervention en cas de soulèvement populaire. Dans le cas du Soudan par exemple, le Conseil a visiblement tenté de donner une chance aux militaires pour parvenir rapidement à un accord avec les civils, mais les évènements sanglants de cette semaine et l’absence de progrès dans les discussions ont fait changer la donne.

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Au-delà de la suspension du Soudan… le jeu des alliances avec ou sans l’Afrique.

D’aucuns se demandent si la suspension du Soudan des activités de l’Union Africaine est suffisante pour faire courber les militaires au pouvoir. Il faut déjà reconnaitre que le langage et la position du Conseil dans le cas soudanais est l’un des plus fermes de l’histoire. En plus, le Conseil menace qu’au cas où les militaires ne transféreront pas sans plus tarder, le pouvoir à une Autorité de transition sous conduite civile, le Conseil imposera automatiquement des mesures punitives aux personnes et entités faisant obstacle à la mise en place de l’Autorité de transition sous conduite civile. A l’ère où tout se mondialise y compris la justice et la redevabilité surtout en matière de droits de l’homme personne ne veut prendre le risque de faire face à ces éventualités.

Cependant, la tâche ne semble pas être si simple dans une situation ou d’autres alliés du Soudan dans le continent et en dehors du continent ne semblent pas aller dans la même direction que l’Union Africaine. Il n’est donc pas étonnant de voir que dans son Communiqué, le Conseil de Paix et de Sécurité dans un langage fort a souligné, « la primauté des initiatives entreprises par les pays africains dans la recherche d’une solution durable à la crise au Soudan et a réitéré son appel à tous les partenaires pour qu’ils soutiennent les efforts de l’UA et de l’IGAD et s’abstiennent de toute action susceptible de compromettre les initiatives entreprises par l’Afrique ».

Même si le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies n’a pas pu s’entendre sur un texte commun et la conduite à tenir, une grande partie de la communauté internationale semble être alignée sur la position de l’Union Africaine. L’Union Africaine a en effet du potentiel et un poids politique assez important à ne pas négliger pour résolution du problème soudanais et bien d’autres sur le continent.

J’ai espoir que la raison prévaudra entre les parties prenantes soudanaises. L’Afrique que nous voulons en dépens.

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Leave a comment Posted on June 7, 2019June 25, 2019 Africa, African Politics, Civic Space, Conflicts, Uncategorized

African Union Suspended Sudan: What are the Consequences?

La version en Francais ici

In response to the bloody removal on Monday 3^rd June, of the sit-in of Sudanese civilian protesters who are demanding a democratic government to the military in power since the fall of Omar Bashir, the African Union Peace and Security Council has pulled out its muscles yesterday 6 June 2019.

The 854th Session of the Council decided, “in line with the relevant AU instruments, in particular the AU Constitutive Act, the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, to suspend, with immediate effect, the participation of the Republic of Sudan in all AU activities until the effective establishment of a civilian-led Transitional Authority, as the only way to allow the Sudan to exit from its current crisis”. This decision is clear and unambiguous but it raises some legal, political and practical questions. I will address some of them in this blog.

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What are the direct implications of the suspension of a Member State from the activities of the African Union?

The instruments referred to by the Peace and Security Council (PSC) in its various sessions on the situation in Sudan have not given full details of the consequences of a suspension of a member state.

Political significance: It should be recognized that the suspension of Sudan weakens the already fragile international legitimacy of the ruling Transition Military Council. The African Union has an undeniable political weight and its decision will certainly influence international partners of Sudan. No political regime would enjoy to be in a situation of suspension from an organization of 55 member states, the most important Pan African institution on the continent. In addition, the heinous violation of human rights that led to this suspension, including alleged widespread rape of women and girls, made the picture even darker. The United Nations has also strongly condemned the violence and the use of excessive force by the security forces on civilians, and called for an independent investigation.

In practice the suspension of a state from the affairs of the Union implies that representatives of that State will no longer be invited to the activities of the organs of the Union until the lifting of the suspension. They naturally lose their voting rights. Nor can the State in question host meetings of the organs of the Union. All AU bodies and programs are concerned. Elected representatives of the suspended state in the various AU committees and working groups will no longer have access to them as members. It is unclear, however, whether suspended state officials may be allowed to sit in an open session as observers and without the right to vote. In my opinion, if the meeting admits observers (non-member states of the AU), a representative of the suspended state should be able to attend the meeting without the right to speak and to vote. However, it is necessary to specify that the suspension of a state of the activities of the Union does not stop the membership of the said state to the African Union. As a result, the suspended state must continue to honor its obligations to the Union, such as contributions to the Union budget. Moreover, it is in that spirit that the African Union will continue to support the normalization process in collaboration with the Regional Economic Community geographically concerned. In this case, it is IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) which includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda.

What are the effects on citizens ?

The Lomé Declaration of July 2000 suggests that care must be taken to ensure that ordinary citizens of the affected country do not suffer disproportionately from the imposition of sanctions on those in power. Nevertheless in practice the impact of the suspension on the citizens is inevitable especially if the suspension lasts long. For example, the Central African Republic had been suspended for three years, but I can imagine that what is most important here for Sudanese citizens today is the political and moral support that the PSC decision represents for their legitimate right for a democratic state. In particular, the Council reaffirmed “the solidarity of the African Union with the Sudanese in their aspirations to constitutional order that will enable them to make progress in its efforts towards the democratic transformation of the country”.

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Why was Sudan’s suspension not automatic immediately after the coup as in other cases in the past?

The Peace and Security Council seems to use this mechanism on a case-by-case basis for several reasons. The most important is that, the mechanism of the Lomé Declaration and the other instruments cited by the Council had been drafted in the context of classic coups. Popular uprisings and street revolutions where not envisaged at that time. It is also true that nowadays the democratic space has spread widely in Africa so strong and persistent popular movements could not be ignored anymore … There is therefore a problem of characterization of the situation in Sudan today, but also that of Egypt a few years back, in Algeria, Zimbabwe etc. It is important for the African Union to look at defining the framework for action in the event of popular uprisings. In the case of Sudan, for example, the Council apparently tried to give the military a chance to reach an agreement with the civilians quickly, but the bloody events of this week and the lack of progress in the discussions had changed the situation.

Beyond the suspension of Sudan from AU activities and the game of alliances

Some question whether the suspension of Sudan from the activities of the African Union is sufficient to bend the ruling Transition Military Council. We should recognize that, already the language and position of the PSC is one of the firmest in history. In addition, the PSC threatens that, should the Transition Military Council fail to hand-over power to a civilian-led Transitional Authority, the PSC shall, without any further delay, automatically impose punitive measures on individuals and entities obstructing the establishment of the civilian-led Transitional Authority. There is also a move towards investigating the massive human rights violations. In a world where everything is globalizing, including justice and accountability, especially in the area of human rights, no one wants to take the risk of facing these eventualities.

However, this does not seem to be so simple in a situation where other Sudanese allies within and outside the continent do not seem to be moving in the same direction as the African Union. It is therefore not surprising that in its Communiqué, the Peace and Security Council stressed “the primacy of African-led initiatives in the search for a lasting solution to the crisis in Sudan; and reiterated its call to all partners to support AU and IGAD efforts and refrain from any action that could undermine African-led initiatives”.

Even though the United Nations Security Council has not been able to agree on a common text and what to do, a large part of the international community seems to be aligned with the position of the African Union. The African Union has the potential and a significant political weight, to help solve the Sudanese problem and many others in the continent.

I hope that reason will prevail between the Sudanese stakeholders. We need that for the Africa we want.

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4 Comments Posted on July 4, 2018July 7, 2018 #31stAUSummit, african union, AU Summit, Conflicts, Western Sahara

10 Takeaways from the African Union Summit – July 2018

The 31^st Summit of Heads of State of the African Union held in Nouakchott Mauritania is now over. The Summit was held under the AU annual theme: “Winning the Fight Against Corruption: A Sustainable Path to Africa’s Transformation.”

Decisions of the Summit are not yet publicly available but, as usual, I would like to share with you, the following unofficial summary of the key outcomes of the Summit.

Over the next following weeks, I will be sharing deeper personal analysis on some of the issues discussed in Nouakchott and on the AU agenda.

The Summit meetings were held as follows:

Permanent Representative Committee (Ambassadors): 25^th – 26^th June
Executive Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs): 28^th – 29^th June
Assembly (Heads of State and Government): 1^st – 2^nd July

The Summit was overshadowed by peace and security issues including the security incidents in the Sahel; the multiple deadly attacks that happened in Mali and Niger while the Summit taking place. The state of peace and security in the continent was largely discussed by the Assembly including the situation in DRC, CAR, Burundi, Libya, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa etc. The Peace and Security Council of the AU met at the level of Heads of State in Nouakchott to discuss the situation in South Sudan. See Communique here.

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10 Key Takeaways from the Summit:

African Union Reform: There were no substantial progress in Nouakchott on the institutional reform of the African Union. Some disagreements among member States on President Kagame’s proposal remain. For example, there is still no consensus among all Member States on the application of 0,2% levy on eligible importations in order to fund the Union, the mode of designation/appointment of commissioners, power dynamics within the institution, the scope of intervention of the AU and the division of labor between the continental body and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs). After all, it seems like not all member states have the same view on how to get a strong, autonomous and effective African Union to drive our development and integration ambitions. An extraordinary Summit will be held on 17 & 18 November this year to focus on the reform agenda.
The Continental Free Trade Area: Significant progress recorded including the adoption of the five services priority sectors (Transport, communication, financial, tourism and business services). 5 additional countries joined the AfCFTA including one of the biggests economies of the continent: South Africa. The other new signatories are Burundi, Sierra Leone, Lesotho, and Namibia. Now 49 countries in total have signed the AfCFTA and 6 have ratified it. 16 more ratifications are needed for the treaty to enter into force. If all 55 AU members join the treaty, it will create a bloc with a cumulative GDP of $2.5 trillion and cover a market of 1.2 billion people. In terms of numbers of participating countries, AfCFTA will be the world’s largest free trade area since the formation of the World Trade Organization. You can get insightful information on the AfCFTA here.
Western Sahara Conflict: AUC Chairperson presented a comprehensive report and proposed a mechanism to move ahead on the issue. While calling for the Polisario Front and Morocco to resume negotiations, without preconditions and in good faith, the Summit adopted the mechanism including the setting up of a Troika of 3 Heads of State: the current Chair of the Union (President Paul Kagame), the immediate past Chair (President Alpha Conde) and the incoming Chair (President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi) to be supported by the Chairperson of the AU Commission. The mission of the Troika will be to provide efficient support to the United Nations-led process (not to replace it) to resolve the conflict. The objective is the resumption of negotiations between the stakeholders to reach a just, lasting and mutually acceptable solution, which allows the self-determination of the people of Western Sahara. In addition, the Chairperson of the AUC is to reactivate the AU Office to the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara in Laayoune. The Summit decided that the issue of Western Sahara can now only be raised within this framework and at this level.
Future of ACP/EU Cotonou Agreement post-2020: Professor Carlos Lopes, Former Executive Secretary of the UNECA is appointed as the African Union High Representative to support Member States in the negotiation of the new agreement with the EU Post-2020. Ministers of Foreign Affairs and those in charge of the negotiation will meet by September to consolidate the African Common Position.
2019 Budget of the Union: There are important progress toward ownership and budgetary process but the Union’s programs will still be largely funded by external donors in 2019. Total budget: $ 681 485 337 (about 12% less than the 2018 budget)
Operating budget: $ 416,329,505 including AMISOM operational budget ($ 243,430,467)
Program budget: US $ 265,155,832

The 2019 budget will be financed as follow: $ 280,045,761 by AU Member States and $ 401,439,575 by external partners.

Francophonie: Both Ministers of Foreign Affairs and the Assembly of Heads of State endorsed the candidacy of Rwanda’s Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo to the post of Secretary General of “La Francophonie”; the Organization of French Speaking countries (OIF).
Migration: Proposed by the King Mohammed VI of Morocco, AU Leader on Migration, the Summit decided to create an African Observatory for Migration and Development (OAMD) to be based in the Rabat, Morocco. Several delegations and personalities including the Chairperson of the African Union Commission publicly spoke against the recent proposal of the European Union to create a Regional disembarkation platforms to be located outside of Europe for migrants recused in international waters. In addition, the Peace and Security Council met to discuss the migration situation in the continent. See the Communique here.
Sahel: the United Nations launched a revitalized strategic plan at the sidelines of the Summit entitled “Sahel, Land of Opportunities”. The plan targets 10 countries and six key areas including growth inclusive of empowerment of women and youth, cross border security and sustaining peace. The targeted countries, namely Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Cameroon will have continued support for ongoing efforts by governmental, non-governmental, national and regional bodies. 65 per cent of the region’s population is below 25 years of age, the plan then urges specific investments in education and vocational training to achieve higher demographic dividend.
Fighting Corruption: Recognizing that Africa’s development plans including the Agenda 2063 would be seriously impeded without rigorous measures against corruption, AU Heads of State have reached a consensus on establishing a monitoring mechanism to fight against domestic and cross-border corruption through cooperation.
In a solemn declaration, Heads of State decided to combat Illicit Financial Flows through various practical measures including the establishment of effective ownership registers, country-by-country reporting of financial information, exchange of tax information agreements, mutual support in reinforcing tax authorities etc. Several leaders spoke strongly against corruption and proposed courageous reform to combat it in the public, and private sectors. For example, President Buhari of Nigeria, the AU Leader on the fight against corruption said: “We must all collectively work to place high on the agenda the need for open and participatory government, as well as the repatriation of stolen assets without procedural technicalities and legal obstacles.” The Gambian President Adama Barrow said: ‘’our successes in the fight against corruption will ensure that resources are retained and used to support structural transformations and expansion of our economies…we cannot afford resource wastages through corruption thereby depriving our citizens the opportunities to improve their living standards”
Attendance: The Summit has been poorly attended at high level. Only about half of the 55 African Heads of state made it to Nouakchott. Absentee Presidents include Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, Abdel Fattah Sissi of Egypt, Patrice Talon of Benin, João Lourenço of Angola, José Mario Vaz of Guinea Bissau, Alassane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire, King Mohammed VI of Morocco etc.
First participation in the Summit: Presidents Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa and Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone. French President Emmanuel Macron made an exceptional appearance in the margins of the Summit to have side discussions with African leaders on the G5 Sahel initiative and other peace and security issues.

Prospects for the year 2019: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will be the Chairperson of the African Union for 2019 and the theme of the year will be Refugees, Returnees and IDPs in Africa: towards durable solutions to forced displacement. 2019 will mark the 50^th anniversary of the adoption of the 1969 OAU Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa (OAU Convention) as well as the 10^th anniversary of the adoption of the 2009 AU Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention). The Assembly decision at its 29^th Assembly in July 2017 mandates the AU Commission to work with UNHCR and other partners to organize a series of commemorative events aimed at raising the visibility and provide thoughts for solutions of forced displacement in Africa. A series of events aimed at increasing ratification and domestication of the two key documents are being planned under the Project 2019, a joint AU-UNHCR initiative.

In line with the ongoing reform of the African Union, the just-finished Summit was expected to be the last mid-year Summit. From 2019 onward, there will only be one (1) ordinary Summit per year. The Union will rather host a mid-year coordination Session with the Regional Economic Communities. The first will be held in Niamey, Niger end June 2019.

The 32nd Ordinary Session of the Assembly will be held on the 10th & 11th February 2019 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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2 Comments Posted on June 11, 2018June 13, 2018 Africa, African Politics, african union, AU Summit, Conflicts, Uncategorized

African Union Summit in Mauritania: What is at Stake?

Friends;

As usual, I would like to share with you the following personal notes on the upcoming 31^st Ordinary Summit of the AU policy organs to be held in Nouakchott, Mauritania in a few weeks.

The Summit will be held under the theme: “Winning the Fight Against Corruption: A Sustainable Path to Africa’s Transformation.”

Beside the main theme of the year, major issues on the Summit agenda include a progress review on the institutional reform and self-financing of the African Union, peace, security and humanitarian situation on the continent, the Continental Free Trade Area and the African Common Position on the future of ACP/EU. I have also anticipated on the theme and the leadership of the Union for next year 2019.

In line with the ongoing reform of the African Union, this Summit is expected to be the last mid-year Summit. From 2019 onward, there will only be one (1) ordinary Summit per year.

According to the draft agenda, the Summit’s sessions are scheduled as follow in Nouakchott:

Permanent Representative Committee (Ambassadors): 25^th – 26^th June 2018
Executive Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs): 28^th – 29^th June 2018
Assembly (Heads of State and Government): 1^st – 2^nd July 2018

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A Closed Summit

The upcoming AU Summit will likely be a closed Summit as per AU Assembly decision AU/Dec.582 (XXV) according to which “Only one summit per year should be open for observers (non-African countries, international and inter-governmental organizations, CSOs etc)”. This decision was previously applied during the mid-year Summit in Kigali, Rwanda in July 2017. The only exception to this policy is when the AU decides to invite a strategic partner whose activities are in line with the theme of the year. Organizations that have an authorized side event in relation with the theme may only have access to the specific event and not necessarily to the entire Summit space.

Key Issues to dominate the AU Summit

Winning the fight against corruption: Corruption is one of the most pressing governance and development challenges that Africa is confronted with today. It’s devastating and harsh effects adversely affect the development progress and stability of the Continent. In 2003, the AU adopted the African Union Convention on Preventing and Combating Corruption which entered into force in 2006. The convention, now ratified by 38 Member States provides for the establishment of an Advisory Board on Corruption. Created in 2009, the Arusha, Tanzania based Board has the mandate to promote and encourage the adoption of measures and actions to fight corruption and related offences on the continent. Member States are required to submit a report to the Executive Council on a regular basis on the progress made in complying with the provisions of the Convention.

Corruption trough Illicit Financial Flows (IFF): According the Thabo Mbeki report in 2015, $50 Billion is lost through illicit flows out of the continent every year. This figure has now mounted to $80 Billion according to the UNECA.

At the July 2017 Summit, it was decided that Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari would champion the annual theme. This decision was apparently based on the fact that Nigeria has recently taken a number of initiatives at national level to fight corruption practices.

In Nouakchott a presentation and a presidential debate led by President Buhari will be held on the theme and the Assembly will likely adopt a solemn declaration on fighting corruption in Africa. It is not clear whether the discussions on fighting corruption will be extended to corruption in political governance.

Progress on the institutional reform and self-financing of the African Union: The summit will review progress on the implementation of the institutional reform being led by President Paul Kagame aiming for a more efficient and effective African Union to achieve the objectives of the Agenda 2063. So far it’s hard to believe that there is a genuine consensus among member states on what the new structure of the AU will look like, the power dynamics in the leadership, the scope of thematic interventions and the division of labour between the AU and the Regional Economic Communities among other issues. A group of Member States has even tabled formal concerns in relation with the review process and the initial proposal made by President Kagame.

A progress report on financing the African Union by African countries through a 0.2% levy on eligible imported goods into the continent, is also expected to be presented by Donald Kaberuka. So far the AU is still funded up to 70% by external donors.

Peace, Security and Humanitarian Situation: the number of violent conflicts in Africa and their impact on civilians has hardly changed from the previous year. Re-occurring or relapsing conflicts, riots and mass protests, and shifting threats posed by violent extremist groups are key sources and manifestations of violence and insecurity in Africa and the continent continue to face heavy peace and security and humanitarian challenges. Progress towards a sustainable peace is rather slow due to many reasons mostly linked to governance deficits and the continent continues to face cases of stalled or collapsed peace processes; some of the notable cases include Burundi, CAR, DRC, Mali, South Sudan, Libya, Somalia etc. The Campaign for “silencing the guns by 2020” decided some years back is struggling to show results as we are approaching the deadline in a year and a half. The Assembly of the Union will consider a report on it. The situation between Morocco and Western Sahara is still unresolved. Besides the general debate on the state of peace and security in the continent, the Assembly of Heads of State will consider a special report of the AUC Chairperson on Western Sahara. The Peace and Security Council will meet at Heads of State level on the 30^th June. French President Emmanuel Macron will participate in a luncheon on financing AU-led peace support operations authorized by the UN Security Council. It is likely that discussions between President Macron and African Leaders will be extended to the situation in Libya in which France is deeply involved.

The Continental Free Trade Area: the unfinished business: The recently adopted African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement will cover an African market of 1.2 billion people and a gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 trillion, across all 55 member States of the Union. In terms of numbers of participating countries, AfCFTA will be the world’s largest free trade area since the formation of the World Trade Organization. The potential for intra-African trade to drive value creation and development is both palpable and real. The agreement is designed to benefit Africa’s industrial exports, so, in order to trade, Africa first has to produce and not only selling primary commodities. The Free Trade Agreement could not then produce the expected result without an acceptable degree of industrialization of the continent. 11 countries including the biggest economies of the continent – Nigeria and South Africa – have not signed the agreement. The next summit creates an opportunity to have those countries onboard but also to push for more ratifications of the treaty beyond the first 4 countries: Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda and Niger. In addition, the summit will discuss important annexes and appendices to make the AfCFTA effectively functional.

African Common Position on the future of ACP/EU: The Economic Partnership Agreement (Cotonou Agreement) signed in the year 2000 between 79 African, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP) States and the European Union (EU) and its Member States for a period of 20 years is coming to an end in February 2020. Reflections between Africa and the EU are under way to determine the nature, outline and configuration of a more appropriate framework for future post-2020 relations. Renewing these agreements creates, a unique opportunity for both continents to reaffirm their individual and collective priorities, opportunities and challenges, so, African Heads of State will consider and eventually adopt a common position ahead of their negotiation with the EU.

Prospects for the year 2019: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will be the Chairperson of the African Union for 2019 and the theme of the year will be Refugees, Returnees and IDPs in Africa. 2019 will mark the 50^th anniversary of the adoption of the 1969 OAU Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa (OAU Convention) as well as the 10^th anniversary of the adoption of the 2009 AU Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention). The Assembly decision at its 29^th Assembly in July 2017 mandates the AU Commission to work with UNHCR and other partners to organize a series of commemorative events aimed at raising the visibility and provide thoughts for solutions of forced displacement in Africa. A series of events aimed at increasing ratification and domestication of the two key documents are being planned under the Project 2019, a joint AU-UNHCR initiative.

Given the important humanitarian component of our 2018-2021 strategic plan, we, at UNFPA, are ready to engage on the African Union’s 2019 theme alongside other partners.

Leave a comment Posted on September 6, 2017February 9, 2021 Africa, African Politics, Conflicts, Justice

Silencing the Guns in Africa – Important Prerequisites…

Dear friends;

The Peace and Security Council of the African Union has just launched the “African Amnesty Month” for the Surrender and the Collection of Illicit Weapons in the framework of the African Union Master Roadmap for silencing the guns in Africa by 2020.

I have had the honor to address the Council at that occasion as an invited Guest Speaker. I am sharing here my presentation made on the 4th September 2017 at the African Union Headquarter.

Your comments are welcome on this blog or by email to assogbavi@me.com .

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Your Excellency, Madam Chairperson of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union; Honorable Members of the Peace and Security Council; Ladies and Gentlemen,All protocols observed.

Only 1/3 of all small arms in circulation today are in the hands of legally constituted security forces… the remaining 2/3 are held illegally by non-state actors or individuals and this is cause for concern because, the use of these weapons, directly and indirectly affects hundreds of thousands of people and severely undermines our commitments for sustainable development. So, the declaration of an Africa Amnesty Month for the surrender and collection of illegally owned weapons is an important step in the search for peace and security in Africa….

But, having looked at the decision of the Assembly on the Roadmap for silencing the Gun, the provision on Amnesty month seems to be the only provision with identified real actions with some accountability mechanisms.

Provisions relating to the root causes, or the origins of African conflicts are included, but unfortunately, they are vaguely treated… with no accountability mechanism or tracking system for implementation.

Madam Chair; a few years ago, the African Union had decided to launch a campaign named “Make Peace Happen”… in which we all participated but peace did not happen.

Every 6 months, the AUC presents a report on the state of peace and security in the continent, to the Assembly, and decisions are made accordingly …peace is still not happening… So, for the “Silencing the Guns” campaign to happen we must do something differently, we must do something courageous…. Maybe a bit painful…, in order to have a different result.

The Assembly’s decision suggested that people who surrender their illegally owned weapons shall not be subjected to disclosure, humiliation, arrest or prosecution… that is a great incentive !!! but there is not the problem…

People are not holding on their gun today because they are afraid of prosecution… they keep holding and trusting the guns, mostly because their problems remain unsolved by the states, by power holders…

In fact, many weapon bearers do not consider their actions illegal but rather legitimate against:

The inequitable sharing of national resources
The confiscation of state power and state resources by an individual or group of individuals
The modern form of unconstitutional change of government manifested today by “fraudulent or cosmetic elections” to sustain unlimited terms on power …. often with the blessing by our regional and continental bodies through election observation that mostly look at just the voting operations, always “declared free and fair”

Madame Chair; if we stick to the current decision only, and to the the way we use to do business, I am afraid we will come back here in September 2020 or 2021, only to realize that guns are not silenced in our continent….

This means that the journey to 2063 will become longer than planned … the promises contained in the Agendas 2063 and 2030 will remain beautiful dreams. As a result, the mistrust of our populations, especially the youth, in our institutions, regional and continental bodies, will increase…. Affected and marginalized populations will continue trusting nothing else but the guns.

In DRC for example we do not need further research to know that, without a credible election and an alternation of power, there is no hope for peace… and it is unlikely for those who hold the guns, there, to surrender them… This also holds true for South Sudan Sudan, Burundi and so on. Of course, there are different scenarios and different realities in other part of the continent, that would not necessarily be resolved through election alone…

In many other countries in our continent, unlimited presidential terms reinforced by unfair elections constitute a real risk for fragility that will not contribute in silencing the gun by 2020.

Ladies and Gentlemen; availability of arms does not necessarily create conflicts. But their proliferation and their uncontrolled circulation can lead to a more rapid spread of violence and, magnify their devastating effects, and, of course, countries are less safe if weapons are easily available. However, conflicts that are going on in Africa have not started just because arms were available… in fact, arms come in later in most of the cases. So, without courageous actions to deal with the origins of the conflicts, efforts to collect arms in the framework of our Amnesty month will not bring us any tangible result. Strategically, collecting arms cannot come first in the implementation of our Roadmap.

Madam Chair, I may disappoint you today because I have not prepared any specific suggestions on how the Amnesty month can be organized, because I do not believe we are there yet. Rather, I would like to use the following illustration to demonstrate that, there are unavoidable prerequisites, that we should meet first, before voluntary arms collection can be effective, and these fit well within the objective # 4 of this Open Session.

Let’s consider that our Master Roadmap for silencing the guns can be implemented within a symbolic calendar year from January to December, including September as the month of Amnesty for the collection of illegally owned small arms…You would see at the end, that in fact, September is an excellent choice….

Illustration for a strategic sequencing of prerequisites for guns to be silenced in Africa within a symbolic calendar year

See powerpoint here: https://www.slideshare.net/DesireAssogbavi/prerequisites-for-silencing-the-gun-in-africa

January and February: Constitutions and laws of all member states of the African Union guaranty all civil and political rights for all citizens with no discrimination. This also means that peaceful demonstrations can be held whenever citizens are not happy about the conduct of public affairs on a particular area, without intimidation or violence against citizens…

March and April: Justice systems of all member states are made fully independent and free of undue pressure from the executive in their functioning. Human rights violators and criminals are effectively prosecuted regardless of their social and political status and reparation for victims is ensured at national level… As this happens constantly, the ICC will go bankrupt and will probably close!

May – June: State institutions set up socioeconomic and legal mechanisms to tackle inequality and extreme poverty, and to combat corruption at all levels. Illicit Financial Flows are significantly reduced… Heavy investments are made from national resources, supported by international south-south and north-south cooperation, to ensure essential services, mainly, education, infrastructures and health are accessible for all citizens including our leaders.

July: Credible elections are normally held and managed by independent electoral boards with no interference… and results of the pools reflect the true choice of the people… but, minorities are respected and deliberately protected and given opportunity to participate in public affairs through different other institutions, by the law and affirmative actions… This naturally lead to a situation where, elections are influenced more by political agendas and not by ethnic origins. Losers of elections including former heads of state or opposition leaders are treated with dignity, respected and enjoy state protection, but they are held accountable if they are responsible for crimes.

August: Innovative programs create diverse and quality education and training opportunities. Private sector is regulated, accompanied and encouraged to create increasing job opportunities for the youth. State institutions ensure equal opportunity to citizens with no discrimination, to be employed and engaged in public affairs

Then comes September: The Amnesty Month! Following the AU Assembly decisions on the Roadmap for silencing the Gun… People who have small arms and light weapons illegally — voluntarily surrender them … This is consolidated by the setting up of justice and accountability mechanisms adapted to each national context and traditions, including transitional justice…. Reparation for victims is guaranteed.

October: The African Union Treaty on Free Movements of people and goods is adopted and fully implemented all over the continent… The Pan African Passport is delivered promptly upon request… Interaction between peoples of different nationalities and regions of the continent catalyzes strong opportunities of learning, creates synergy, and boosts our economic integration… Young people feel no need to immigrate… No death recorded in the Mediterranean Sea or in the Sahara Desert and, a good part of the diaspora comes back to take part in the reconstruction of the continent.

November: The African Union gains trust from its citizens and becomes a truly people driven body, and effective to ensure the implementation of its decisions by member states… A genuine and effective space is provided for citizens and their formations to be part of the decision-making process… But this means that the AU has declared illegal, all draconian laws against CSOs in member states, and pushed countries to abolish them, then replace them by provisions that respect universally agreed freedom of association… while ensuring accountability of NGOs…

Madam Chair, in December: Guns will be surely silenced in Africa…

I thank you!

Opinions in this presentation are absolutely personal.

3 Comments Posted on July 5, 2017July 10, 2017 29th AU Summit, Africa, African Politics, african union, AU Summit, Conflicts

Outcomes of the African Union Summit – July 2017 (Unofficial Note)

This document is being updated as more information become available

Last update: 10 July 2017

Dear Friends;

The 29^th ordinary Summit of the AU (July 2017) has just ended in Addis Ababa. The official decisions of the Summit are not expected to be publicly available before a couple of weeks but, based on meetings and discussions that I have had with several delegations around the Summit and after looking at some of the Summit documents, I would like to share the following unofficial note on the key outcomes of the Summit.

In the coming days I will share on this blog, some personal analysis on these outcomes.

AU pic

Highlights:

Important decisions on youth; theme of the year.
President Paul Kagame of Rwanda elected to lead the African Union in 2018.
2018 budget of the AU adopted: $769, 381,894, slightly less than 2017 budget.
Concerned about the performance of ECOSOCC, the Summit ordered an in-depth study on its functioning since its creation
The Africa-EU Partnership is re-branded: Morocco entered a strong reservation
Election of two commissioners: HRST & Economic Affairs
Election of new members of the Panel of the Wise
The theme of 2018 confirmed as “Winning the Fight Against Corruption: A Sustainable Path to Africa’s Transformation” and the dates and venues of both AU Summits in 2018 decided.
Important decisions and commitments on peace, security and humanitarian situation in Africa, and, on the “AU Roadmap for silencing the guns in Africa by 2020”
List of Heads of State and Government who lead on specific thematic within the AU

1/ Theme of the Year: “Harnessing the Demographic Dividend through Investments in Youth”

The Summit asked the Chairperson to mobilize international support for Africa’s efforts towards harnessing the demographic dividend by calling for a special session of the United Nations General Assembly and the creation of a global partnership on the demographic dividend.

2018-2027 period is declared “African Decade for Technical, Professional and Entrepreneurial Training and Youth Employment”.

The establishment of the African Youth Fund is endorsed. The Summit also authorized allocation to the African Youth Fund of an amount at least equal to 1% of the Programme Budget of the African Union Commission.

The Pan-African Youth Forum is institutionalized. The Leader of the theme of the year 2017, President Idriss Deby to follow-up on the conclusions of the Pan-African Youth Forum held in N’Djamena

The AU Commission to review the implementation of the AUC/AfDB/ILO/ECA Joint Initiative on Youth Employment to be in line with the AU Roadmap on the Demographic Dividend and incorporate the new AfDB Strategy on Youth Employment in Africa.

2/ Budget for 2018

Total budget: $769, 381,894 (including peace support operations $268,083,200)

Operating Budget US$458,763,038
Programs budget: $310,618,856

… to be financed as follows:

Member States contribution: $318,276,795
Partners contribution: $451,105,099

3/Africa -EU Partnership becomes “African Union (AU) – European Union (EU) Partnership: Morocco entered strong reservation.

The Executive Council approved the theme of the 5^th AU – EU Summit (29-30 Nov. 2017) namely: “Investment in Youth for Accelerated Inclusive growth and sustainable development”. The Executive Council also decided that the nomenclature for the partnership with the European Union to be now: “African Union (AU) – European Union (EU) Partnership” instead of “Africa – EU partnership”. The Kingdom of Morocco entered a strong reservation on nomenclature: African Union (AU) – European Union(EU) Partnership.

Senior Officials and a Ministerial meeting to be held before the Summit. The PRC in close collaboration with the Commission to prepare and negotiate with the European side the outcome documents of the Summit.

The PRC was asked to convene a retreat to jointly conclude the elaboration of a Draft Declaration and other documents for the 2017 AU-EU Summit in cooperation with the AU Commission and the Africa Group in Brussels and submit to an Extraordinary Session of Council in August/September 2017 to consider the same documents and adopt the African Common Position.

Finally, the Council denounced the unjust unilateral sanctions against States and citizens of AU Member States.

4/ Peace, Security and Humanitarian Situation

Somalia: The Assembly expressed concern at the resurgence of piracy activities of the coast of Somalia and called on the AU and international partners to coordinate their support through the implementation mechanism of the Security Pact, as agreed at the London Conference, held on 11 May 2017, with a view to optimize the impact of joint efforts aimed at, in particular, supporting the Somali National Security Forces. The Assembly welcomed the establishment of the AU-Somalia Joint Task Force that should be the best channel to harmonize support by partners.

South Sudan: The Assembly expressed deep concern over the continued deterioration of the situation in South Sudan and called upon, South Sudanese parties to demonstrate leadership and to rise up to their responsibility towards ending the long suffering of their own people. The Assembly also welcomed the launching of the National Dialogue initiative by President Salva Kiir and urged the South Sudanese stakeholders to ensure its inclusivity independence and impartiality. The Assembly endorsed the decisions of the 31 IGAD Extraordinary Summit held on 12 June 2017, in particular the urgent convening of the High-Level Revitalization Forum of the Peace Agreement. Concerned by the humanitarian situation in South Sudan and urged the international community to provide the necessary assistance to the needy people in South Sudan and the neighboring countries. In this regard, the Assembly called on the Transitional Government of National Unity, SPLM-IO and all armed groups to strictly observe international humanitarian law with regard to humanitarian agencies and workers, with a view to create or facilitate access and delivery of the humanitarian assistance to the population in need.

Djibouti and Eritrea: The Chairperson of the Commission, with the necessary support of the two countries, to pursue his efforts towards normalization of relations and good neighborhood between Djibouti and Eritrea

Morocco & Western Sahara: The Assembly reaffirmed its determination to find a durable solution to the conflict in Western Sahara, and called on the two Member States, the Kingdom of Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, to engage in direct and serious talks and extend the necessary cooperation to the AU policy organs, the Commission and the AU High Representative for Western Sahara. The Assembly also welcomed the commitment of the UN Secretary-General to re-launch the negotiating process, with a new dynamic and a new spirit leading to the resumption of negotiations, in good faith and without preconditions, between the two parties with the aim of reaching a durable solution, which shall provide for the self-determination referendum of the people of Western Sahara in line with the relevant UN resolutions and the AU/OAU decisions.

DRC: The Assembly appealed to all Congolese actors to work for the preservation of the still fragile gains in the path of peace and stability in the DRC, in particular the effective and consensual implementation of the 31 December 2016 Agreement, with a view to organizing elections, in December 2017. In this regard, the Assembly welcomed the initiatives so far taken by the Chairperson of the Commission, including the dispatching, from 29 to 30 May, in Kinshasa, of a mission led by Commissioner for Peace and Security and comprising the representatives of the United Nations, the ICGLR, SADC, guarantor institutions of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Region, signed on 24 February 2013, in Addis Ababa. The also Assembly called for the urgent appointment of the Chairman and Members of the National Follow up Council of the Agreement (CNSA) in order to establish the calendar of elections.

Burundi: The Summit reaffirmed its commitment to the peaceful resolution of the crisis in Burundi through the rapid launching of an inclusive inter-Burundian dialogue, under the aegis of the East African Community (EAC), with the support of the AU, under the leadership of the EAC Mediator, President Museveni of Uganda and his Facilitator, former President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania. The Assembly called upon the Burundian authorities to take all the necessary steps to build the widest consensus possible on the ongoing process of revising the Constitution, with the participation of all stakeholders and on the basis of the Arusha Agreement of 2000. In this regard, the Assembly also called for the rapid signing of the Memorandum of Understanding relating to the activities of the Human Rights Observers and the Military Experts of the AU;

CAR: The Assembly reaffirmed support to the African Initiative for Peace and Reconciliation in CAR and called on all Central African stakeholders, the UN and other partners to support this process. The Assembly welcomed the signing in Rome, on 19 June 2017, under the facilitation of the Sant’Egidio community, of an agreement between armed groups, including a country wide ceasefire. The Assembly URGES Member States and partners to pursue and increase their assistance to the CAR and to contribute to stabilization, post-conflict reconstruction and development efforts in the country.

Mali: The Assembly welcomed the timely initiative of the G5 Sahel, namely Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad, which led to the establishment of the G5 Sahel Joint Force. The Assembly further welcomed the adoption by the United Nations Security Council of resolution 2359 (2017) on the deployment of the G5 Joint Force expressed appreciation to the European Union (EU) for the financial support to the initiative of the G5 Sahel. The Assembly requested the Commission to organise as soon as possible, a meeting of the member countries of the Nouakchott Process to discuss their support for the G5 Sahel initiative, within the framework of the AU Strategy for the Sahel Region.

AU Road-map on Silencing the Guns by 2020

The Summit declared the month of September, of each year till 2020, as “Africa Amnesty Month” for the surrender and collection of illegally owned weapons/arms, in line with the African and international best practices. In this context, the Assembly Pronounced as follows:

persons who surrender their illegally owned weapons/arms shall not be subjected to disclosure humiliation, arrest or prosecution;
persons who fail to surrender their illegally owned weapons/arms beyond the Africa Amnesty month, shall automatically be considered to be in violation of national laws and the Amnesty and shall therefore be prosecuted according to the national laws of the Member States;
all Member States, RECs/RMs as well as civil society organizations shall give wide publicity, through all media networks, to the Africa Amnesty Month within their territories and regions;
Member States to adhere to and promote the Africa Amnesty Month, September each year, and mobilize their citizens to actively participate in the efforts to silence the guns.

The Summit appealed to all AU Member States and RECs/RMs to redouble efforts in further strengthening their governance institutions, as part of the continental mobilization to ensure strong response to illicit weapons, their proliferation and use in the continent, as well as to illicit financial flows, production of dangerous drugs, as well as trade in illicit goods and illegal exploitation of natural resources.

The Summit encouraged AU Member States to speed up signing and ratification of the Arms Trade Treaty adopted the UN General Assembly on 2 April 2013, which has the potential to play an important role in silencing the guns in Africa.

The Summit requested the Commission, as also requested by the PSC in its Press Statement [PSC/PR/BR.(CDXXX)] of its 430^th meeting held on 24 April 2014, to submit and present to the PSC, the outcomes of the continent-wide mapping exercise which was launched in early 2017, with a view to generating concrete data on patterns and trends in illegal weapons and ammunition inflows and cross-border flows, diversion and circulation, as well as gaps in control measures in Member States, in order to strengthen AU remedial efforts.

The Summit Acknowledged that as part of the efforts to strengthen democratic institutions and practices throughout the continent, political will and commitment is a fundamental necessity for success in silencing the guns. In this regard, the Assembly urged Member States, for those that have not yet done so, to submit their state reports on their implementation of the provisions of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG).

The Summit also requested the AU Commission to convene a meeting of experts of AU Member States to review the OAU/AU treaty making process and make recommendations that will be submitted for consideration by the relevant AU policy organs in the course of 2017.

Panel of the Wise: The Summit decided to strengthen the preventive role of the Panel of the Wise by urging it to accelerate the establishment of national peace infrastructures, including by harnessing the efforts of national mechanisms. The summit also decided on the operationalization of “Pan African Network of Women Mediators“, as a subsidiary body of the Panel of the Wise.

Humanitarian Situation in Africa

The Executive Council expressed concern over the dire humanitarian situation of migrants in Mediterranean Sea trying to cross over to Europe and, welcomed the New York Declaration adopted at 71st UNGA and the commitment towards the adoption of a global compacts on refugees and on the safe and orderly migration, by 2018 as well as the comprehensive refugee response framework (CRRF) for large scale movements of refugees including tackling protracted situations.

Recognizing that 2019 will mark the 50^th Anniversary of the 1969 OAU Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Situations in Africa and the 10th anniversary of the African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance to Internally Displaced Persons in Africa, the Executive Council called on the Union to declare 2019 as the Year of Refugees, Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons in Africa : “towards durable solutions to forced displacement in Africa” and develop an implementation road map.

The Executive Council has also requested the following to the AU Commission:

In collaboration with the PRC Sub-Committee on Refugees, Returnees and IDPs and the Sub-Committee on the Special Emergency Fund to take all necessary measures to convene a Donors Pledging Conference, which should include the private sector.

In collaboration with the PRC to engage in further reflections on the situation of refugees to develop practical modalities to assist refugees in Africa;

Work in close collaboration with relevant international partners to address migration flows of Africans through the Mediterranean Sea and other channels

5/ Institutional Reform: The Summit took note of President Kagame’s Progress Report and reiterated that the implementation process will consider proposals and suggestions made by Member States

6/ Full Integration of NEPAD into the African Union Commission: The NEPAD Heads of State and Government Orientation Committee (HSGOC) is dissolved. AUC in consultation with the NEPAD Planning and Coordination Agency (NPCA), to take all necessary measures for the full integration of the NEPAD into the Commission and to report to 30^th Ordinary Session of the Assembly in January 2018.

7/ ECOSOCC

The Executive Council expressed concerns about the performance of ECOSOCC as an advisory role to the Union and requested the AUC in collaboration with ECOSOCC and Member States to implement the previous Executive Council Decisions EX.CL/Dec.833(XVII) on the establishment of a dedicated secretarial within CIDO and EX.CL/Dec.849(XXV) which calls for an in-depth study regarding the functioning of ECOSOCC since its inception to provide appropriate recommendations on modalities to revamp the operations of the organ, in line with the current reforms of the AU that would support the principle of Africa ownership

AU Commission to work out all legal, structural and financial implications affecting the relocation of ECOSOCC to Lusaka, Zambia and submit to the PRC for supplementary budget consideration

8/ Child Rights

The Executive Council adopted the theme for the Day of the African Child 2017: “Leave No Child Behind for Africa’s Development” and requested Member States to commemorate the Day of the African Child

9/ New Commissioners elected:

Human Resources, Science and Technology: ANYANG AGBOR Sarah MBI Enow Sarah (Cameroon)
Economic Affairs: HARISON Victor (Madagascar)

10/ New members of the Panel of the Wise

Eastern Africa: Dr. Speciosa Wandira Kazibwe, from Uganda (re-appointed)

Northern Africa: Mr. Amr Moussa, from Egypt

Western Africa:, Mrs. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, from Liberia

Central Africa: Mrs. Catherine Samba-Panza, from the Central African Republic

Southern Africa region, Mr. Hifikepunye Pohamba, from Namibia

Outgoing members of the Panel of the Wise shall become members of the Group of Friends of the Panel.

11/ January 2018 Summit and theme of the year: The 30^th AU Summit will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, under the theme “Winning The Fight Against Corruption: A Sustainable Path to Africa’s Transformation” as follow: PRC: 22 – 23 January 2018; Executive Council: 25 – 26 January 2018; Assembly: 28 – 29 January 2018.

July 2018 Summit: The 31^st AU Summit will be held in Mauritania as follow: PRC : 25 – 26 June 2018; Executive Council: 28 – 29 June 201; Assembly: 1 – 2 July 2018.

12/ Which President Leads on what ?

(i) H.E. Mr. Denis Sassou Nguesso, President of the Republic of Congo: Leader and Chairperson of the High-Level Committee on Libya;

(ii) H.E. Mr. Jacob Zuma, President of the Republic of South African: Leader on African Union-United Nations Cooperation;

(iii) H.E. Mr. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda: Leader on the Continent’s Political Integration;

(iv) H.E. Mr. Edgar Lungu, President of the Republic of Zambia: Leader on Combating Early Marriage of Young Girls;

(v) H.E. Mr. Mahamadou Issoufou, President of the Republic of Niger: Leader on Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA)

(vi) H.E. Mr. Idriss Deby Itno, President of the Republic of Chad, Leader: of the Theme of the Year 2017;

(vii) H.E. Mr. Hailemariam Desalegn, Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Leader on the Implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme: (CAADP);

(viii) H.E. Mr. Faure Essozimna Gnassingbé, President of the Togolese: Republic, Leader on Maritime Security, Safety and Development in Africa;

(ix) H.E. Mr. Abdelaziz Bouteflika: President of the People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria, Leader on the Thorny Issue of Combating Terrorism and Violent Extremism in Africa;

(x) His Majesty Mohamed VI, King of Morocco, Leader on the Migration Issue;

(xi) H.E. Mr. Alassane Dramane Ouattara, President of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire, Leader on the Follow-Up of the Implementation of African Union Agenda 2063;

(xii) H.E. Mr. Nana Akufo Addo, President of the Republic of Ghana: Leader on Gender and Development Issues in Africa;

xiii) H.E. Mr. Ernest Bai Koroma, President of the Republic of Sierra Leone, Leader and Chairperson of the Committee of Ten (C10) on the United Nations Security Council Reform;

(xiv) H.E. Mr. Paul Kagamé, President of the Republic of Rwanda, Leader on the Institutional Reform of the African Union;

(xv) H.E. Mr. Ali Bongo Ondimba, President of the Gabonese Republic and Chairperson of the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC);

13/ Hissen Habre Case

The Executive Council requested the Commission to submit the Statutes of the Trust Fund for victims of Hissène Habré crimes to the Specialized Technical Committee on Justice and Legal Affairs for Consideration and to present it to the Thirtieth Ordinary Session of the Assembly for adoption through the Executive Council January/February 2018;

The Council also authorized the Commission to take necessary consultations with the Government of the Republic of Chad on the establishment of the Secretariat of the Trust Fund, bearing in mind that, the Decision of the African Extraordinary Chambers, the Senegalese Courts will have jurisdiction over all matters arising from the implementation of the African Extraordinary Chambers’ decision.

The Council invited Members States, partners and any other governmental or non-governmental organisation to provide a voluntary contribute to the Trust Fund and fully support the African Union Commission, to ensure the prompt and effective reparation of the victims as per the Decision of the African Extraordinary Appeal Chambers.

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8 Comments Posted on June 7, 2017June 12, 2017 African Politics, african union, AU Summit, Conflicts

African Union Summit – July 2017: What to Expect?

Friends;

As usual, I would like to share with you the following preliminary notes and analysis on the upcoming 29^th Ordinary Summit of the AU policy organs being held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as follows:

Permanent Representative Committee (Ambassadors): 27 – 28 June 2017
Executive Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs): 30 June – 1^st July 2017
Assembly of the Union (Heads of State and Government): 3-4 July 2017

In addition, several statutory meetings of various AU organs and parallel events are scheduled. The official agenda of the Summit is not yet publicly available. This Summit will be the first to be organized by the new leadership of the AU Commission.

With or without observers?

It is unclear if the corridors of the Summit will be open for observers during the sessions. The Assembly has already decided in January 2017 under Kagame’s Report that “external parties shall only be invited to AU Summits on an exceptional basis and for a specific purpose determined by the interests of the African Union”. The question here is to know if African citizens’ formations/CSOs are also considered as “external parties” knowing that the AU claims to be a people driven organization.

Permanent/Resident Representatives of Non-African States and International Organizations will likely be invited for the official opening and closing ceremonies of the Assembly and the Executive Council. The Media is normally invited.

Key strategic issues likely to be on the Agenda of the Summit: (Youth, AU reform, Peace and Security, AU Funding, Election of two remaining Commissioners, Agenda 2063 10-year implementation plan and Continental Trade Area …)

1/ Youth (Theme of the year): “Harnessing the demographic dividend through investments in the Youth”

A presentation and a presidential debate of more than 2 hours to be led by President Idriss Deby (Chad) is planned on the 3^rd July. The youth are unlikely to be invited to this debate on the “Roadmap on harnessing the demographic dividend through investments in the Youth” developed by the AU Commission … It was agreed that such a roadmap should be domesticated and implemented by each member state. A couple of countries have in fact, already done a national launch. The Roadmap has the following pillars: 1- Employment and Entrepreneurship, 2- Education and Skill Development, 3- Health and Wellbeing, 4- Governance and Youth Empowerment.

A presidential solemn declaration on the youth may be adopted following the debate.

Burkina Faso has proposed for consideration an African Decade for Technical, Professional, Entrepreneurial and Employment Training in Africa (2017-2027)

2/ Institutional Reform of the African Union

President Paul Kagame (Rwanda) is expected to present a report on the implementation of his proposed reform plan for the AU, adopted by the Assembly in January this year. A decision will be taken on what has been done and what remains to be done.

Building on his success back home, President Kagame is intensifying the pressure to put the continental body on tract for effectiveness and efficiency to meet the on-going challenges that our continent is facing and to implement the ambitious Agenda 2063.

3/ Peace and Security

The Chairperson of the AU Commission is expected to provide a report on the state of peace and security in Africa with recommendations for the Assembly. Highlights will likely include South Sudan, CAR, Somalia, DRC, Mali etc… as well as emerging security threats such as cybercrime and trending threats such as maritime security and piracy, terrorist, fundamentalism and religious extremism etc.

Since he took over the chairmanship of the Commission in March this year, Chadian diplomat Moussa Faki Mahamat has clearly shown through his movements that peace and security is among his top priorities. In fact, “silencing the guns in Africa” has been his top message while campaigning to win his position. In just a few months, Moussa has already visited Africa’s major hotspots. A report on the implementation of the master roadmap of practical steps to silencing the guns in Africa by 2020 will then be considered by the Summit.

Silencing the guns by 2020?

Last year the African Union prepared a Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to Silence the Guns in Africa by 2020. It is a well elaborated document with the correct analysis of the situation … but then what is next? Let’s face it: Are we really moving towards silencing the guns in the next 3 years ? if so, what are we doing collectively and individually in our various capacity to get there? Can we silence the guns without ensuring democratic governance, decent and true elections, responsible and fair management of our natural resources? Can we break the vicious circle of conflicts without insuring justice and accountability for the heinous crimes being committed on our people by our people? …Alternation on power is one of the problems that we need to resolve collectively without further delay . There is an imperative in all societies to renew political leadership from time to time through credible elections. Since we are still struggling to ensure credible elections in Africa, alternation in power must be tabled and courageously discussed and adopted.

Beside the already burning conflict zones, I am worried about the silence and/or inaction of the continent on several potential and on-going risky situations such as Zambia, DRC, Cameroon, Zimbabwe etc.) where unacceptable pressures are being made on independent media, civil society and political opposition. Without abiding to our shared values contained in the various policies standards and treaties that we have adopted, I am afraid “silencing the guns” will remain a beautiful slogan!

We know the guns are mostly carried by desperate and vulnerable youth who, most of the time, have nothing else to lose. They are in Somalia, South Sudan, Darfur, CAR, DRC, Nigeria, Mali etc… They are in many other countries, they are trained and graduated but without job… some of them are choosing to leave the continent at any cost… In 2017 alone, more than 1,500 young Africans have perished in the Mediterranean Sea and many other died of thirst in the Sahara Desert, while trying to reach Europe.

Efforts made by the chairperson of the Commission on this issue must be matched by member states’ political will to guarantee democracy and rule of law and if most of the political regimes in our continent continue failing on democracy and rule of law, the road to peace and security, prerequisite for our development agenda will be long, very long…

A contribution to the ways forward: We need to imagine courageous tools and make bold steps to change the paradigms… the Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to Silence the Guns in Africa by 2020 has very useful ideas… but how do we ”force” the power holders to make these happen? We all know the main root causes of our conflicts… So the 1st step for silencing the guns is an environment of democracy, respect of the human rights and the rules of law and a decent and inclusive management of national wealth aiming at reducing inequality… But again how do we monitor this and ensure it is happening? I am imagining, an independent High Level Task Force on democracy, rule of law, human rights and good governance to be appointed by the Assembly of the Union in order to systematically track the implementation by member states, of democracy, rule of law and human rights and equality/inclusivity standards contained in our various instruments, especially their relation with fragility and conflicts in different countries in the continent. The Task Force shall be able to make public without any condition, its Report of the state of democracy rule of law and human rights in Africa… so it will become clear to all of us which regimes are undermining our common aspirations. The said Task Force shall obviously work with and build on the existing mechanisms (APRM, AGA, APSA, Panel of the Wise…) What I wish to see here is a Task Force that is directly accountable to African people without the obstruction of the leadership… This may bring a heavier pressure them… Please share your views and comments on this…

We must stop praising the evil doing among ourselves, but rather start exposing and sanctioning them in line with our shared values. A lot must be done at country then regional levels… (see recent example from ECOWAS in The Gambia), then the AU Commission and other organs shall support… We all have a role to play in this… our people must stand up, like recently in Burkina Faso, and say a big NO to bad and irresponsible leadership, make sure that their votes are counted and their money are properly used, not stollen. The elite class has a big responsibility in sensitizing and mobilizing other for the good cause…

4/ Budget and Funding of the Union

According to the current projections, in 2018, the African Union will need about 800 Million USD for its operations ($154M), programmes ($296M) and peace support ($350M). The approved 2017 budget amounts 782 Million USD.

It is unlikely that AU Member states meet this year, their commitment made in 2015/2016 to cover 100% of AU operational budget, 75% of programme budget and 25% of peace support operation budget.

So far AU Member States have been paying less than 30% of the overall budget of the Union. More than 70% is paid by external partners.

Uncertainty on the source of funding of the Union: Donald Kaberuka, the High Representative for the AU Peace Fund is expected to provide an updated report on the implementation of the new funding strategy adopted by the Union in July 2016 in Kigali, by which 0.2 % levy on eligible imports should be collected from each member state to fund the AU. According to on-going technical discussions in closed doors, a number of AU member states are dragging their feet on coming up with domestic legislation to implement the Kigali Decision, evoking different excuses including those relating to the WTO rules… I have 2 questions on this: 1- Where were our member states’ technical experts on international trade at the time this decision was discussed?… 2 – Is it not the mechanism ECOWAS has been using for years? What is different here? Please share your views/comments below…

It is however encouraging to know that some member states (Rwanda, Kenya, Ghana etc) have been moving in the right direction by taking legislative national measures to implement the 0.2% commitment.

5/ Election of 2 Commissioners

In January, the Assembly elected the Chairperson and the Deputy Chairperson and appointed 6 Commissioners elected by the Executive Council out of 8 portfolios. The remaining following 2 Commissioners will be elected during the upcoming Summit.

Commissioner for Human Resources, Science and Technology
Commissioner for Economic Affairs.

According to the gender and geographical representation policies of the AU, the 2 commissioners should be 1 male from the Eastern Region 1 female from the Central Region.

At the closure of the deadline, the AUC received the following application from the Deans of the regions:

Candidates for the post of Commissioner for Human Resources Science and Technology:

Sarah Mbi Enow ANYANG AGBOR from Cameroon, Female, Central Africa Region
Dr. John Patrick KABAYO from Uganda, Male, East Africa Region

Candidates for the post of Commissioner for Economic Affairs

Hon. Yacin Elmi BOUH from Djibouti, Male East Africa region
Newaye Christos GEBRE-AB from Ethiopia, Male, East Africa Region
Victor HARISON from Madagascar, Male, East Africa Region
Marthe Chantal Ndjepang MBAJON from Cameroon, Female, Central Africa Region

For the election of Commissioners, the statutes of the AU Commission imposes a pre-selection process at the regional level. Each region shall nominate 2 candidates for each portfolio. The nomination process shall be based on modalities to be determined by the region.

6/ Agenda 2063 : First 10-year implementation plan

A progress report on the implementation of the Agenda 2063 will be presented to the Summit. An African Economic Platform has been held for the first time this year with the aim to discuss cross-cutting issues that affect Africa’s economies and ways of which opportunities and options from these could be harnessed to ensure continental transformation. The other progress made is the domestication of the agenda into national planning frameworks done by several member states, the process on the Continental Free Trade Area and the African Commodities Strategy as well several discussions held with traditional and new partners. We should not however forget the fact that the realization of the Agenda 2063 is conditioned by a peaceful environment within the continent.

On the implementation of decisions: Less than 15% of African Union decisions are actually implemented and the upcoming summit will make more decisions… It is important to insist on the urgent need to change the rules of the game and to do things differently in terms of realizing the promises made through agreed policy frameworks and standards. If our leaders cannot implement their own decisions, why are they continuing meeting to take more decisions? Up to 5,000 delegates or more attend the AU summit 2 times every year to take an average of 40 decisions per summit. In between summits, hundreds of other policy meetings are held in different capitals. The average cost of a full member states meeting is between 300,000 – 1Milion USD… Some Specialized Technical Committees meetings cost up to 1.5 Million USD. At the end, if only less than 15% the decisions made are implemented… how can we make it to 2063?

This article will be updated regularly until the Summit starts: Last update: 9 June.

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Get more targeted updates & analysis on African Politics from my twitter account : https://twitter.com/Assodesire and feel free to send me your comments, suggestions & questions by email to: assogbavi@me.com or directly on this blog below.

2 Comments Posted on January 31, 2017February 2, 2017 28th AU Summit, Africa, african union, Conflicts, Western Sahara

Key Decisions of the AU Summit

(Non-official Summary)

The 28th African Union (AU) summit held in Addis Ababa on 30-31st January was a historical one given the landmark decisions adopted, including the admission of Morocco into the Union and a deep reform of the continental body. The summit also renewed the leadership of the AUC and took steps towards financial independence of the Union. Albeit the lack of strong country/context related decisions on Peace and Security issues, the Assembly adopted the Master Plan towards Silencing the Guns by 2020. Finally, the summit adopted the so called ‘collective withdrawal strategy’, a misnomer of a document which provides member states with a roadmap for eventual individual withdrawal from the ICC in case AU’s claims and proposals regarding the court and some of its on-going operations are not taken in consideration.

INSTITUTIONAL REFORM

The Summit;

Took note of the recommendations for the proposed reforms to further strengthen the African Union, in the following five areas: a) Focus on key priorities with continental scope; b) Realign African Union institutions in order to deliver against those priorities; c) Connect the African Union to its citizens; d) Manage the business of the African Union efficiently and effectively at both the political and operational levels; e) Finance the African Union sustainably and with the full ownership of the Member States.
Decided to adopt the recommendations in the Report as amended by Member States during the Retreat’s deliberations (see below)
Mandated President Paul Kagame, in his capacity as the lead on the institutional reform of the Union, in collaboration with President Idriss Deby Itno, of Chad in his capacity as the outgoing Chairperson and President Alpha Conde, of the Republic of Guinea in his capacity as the current Chairperson, to supervise the implementation process;
The Incoming Commission elected at the January 2017 Summit shall put in place a Reform Implementation Unit at the AU Commission, within the Bureau of the Chairperson, responsible for the day-to-day coordination and implementation of this decision;
The Incoming Commission shall also make recommendations on a mechanism to ensure that legally binding decisions and commitments are implemented by Member States;
President Paul Kagame shall report at each Ordinary Session of the Assembly on progress made with the implementation of this decision.

Focus on key priorities with continental scope:

i) The African Union should focus on a fewer number of priority areas, which are by nature continental in scope, such as political affairs, peace and security, economic integration (including the Continental Free Trade Area), and Africa’s global representation and voice;

ii) There should be a clear division of labour and effective collaboration between the African Union, the Regional Economic Communities (RECs), the Regional Mechanisms (RMs), the Member States, and other continental institutions, in line with the principle of subsidiarity.

Realigning African Union institutions in order to deliver against those priorities

i) The Commission should initiate, without delay, a professional audit of bureaucratic bottlenecks and inefficiencies that impede service delivery and the recommendations therein;

ii) The Commission’s structures should be re-evaluated to ensure that they have the right size and capabilities to deliver on the agreed priorities;

iii) The Commission’s senior leadership team should be lean and performance-oriented;

iv) NEPAD should be fully integrated into the Commission as the African Union’s development agency, aligned with the agreed priorities and underpinned by an enhanced results-monitoring framework;

v) The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) should be strengthened to track implementation and oversee monitoring and evaluation in key governance areas of the continent;

vi) The roles and functions of the African Union judicial organs and the Pan-African Parliament should be reviewed and clarified, and their progress to date assessed;

vii) The Peace and Security Council (PSC) should be reformed to ensure that it meets the ambition foreseen in its Protocol, by strengthening its working methods and its role in conflict prevention and crisis management;

viii) The Permanent Representatives Committee’s (PRC) Rules of Procedures should be reviewed and be in line with the mandate provided for in the Constitutive Act of the African Union. The PRC should facilitate communication between the African Union and national capitals, and act as an advisory body to the Executive Council, and not as a supervisory body of the Commission.

Connecting the African Union to its citizens

i) The Commission should establish women and youth quotas across its institutions and identify appropriate ways and means to ensure the private sector’s participation;

ii) The Commission should establish an African Youth Corps, as well as develop programs to facilitate cultural and sports exchange among Member States;

iii) Member States should make the African passport available to all eligible citizens as quickly as possible, in line with the Assembly decision Assembly/AU/Dec.607 (XXVII) adopted in Kigali, Rwanda in July 2016

iv) The Commission should identify and provide a set of new capabilities or ‘assets’ in the form of common continent-wide public goods and services valued by Member States and citizens. Such services could include the provision of neutral arbitration and competition services, or a common technical platform for the data and analysis needed to assess Africa’s progress toward its development goals;

v) Member States should engage their Parliaments and citizens, including civil society, on the African Union reform process.

Managing the business of the African Union efficiently and Effectively, at both political and operational levels

Political management of the Union

i) The African Union Assembly shall handle an agenda of no more than three (3) strategic items at each Summit, in line with the Me’kelle Ministerial Retreat recommendations. Other appropriate business should be delegated to the Executive Council

ii) The Assembly shall hold one Ordinary Summit per year, and shall hold extraordinary sessions as the need arise

iii) In place of the June/July Summit, the Bureau of the African Union Assembly should hold a coordination meeting with Regional Economic Communities, with the participation of the Chairpersons of the Regional Economic Communities, the AU Commission and Regional Mechanisms. Ahead of this meeting, the AU Commission shall play a more active coordination and harmonisation role with the Regional Economic Communities, in line with the Abuja Treaty;

iv) External parties shall only be invited to Summits on an exceptional basis and for a specific purpose determined by in the interests of the African Union;

v) Partnership Summits convened by external parties should be reviewed with a view to providing an effective framework for African Union Africa should be represented by the Troika, namely the current, incoming and outgoing Chairpersons of the African Union, the Chairperson of the AU Commission, and the Chairpersons of the Regional Economic Communities;

vi) To ensure continuity and effective implementation of Assembly decisions, a troika arrangement between the outgoing, the current, and the incoming African Union Chairpersons should be established. In this regard, the incoming chairperson shall be selected one year in advance;

vii) Heads of State shall be represented at Summits by officials not lower than the level of Vice President, Prime Minister or equivalent;

viii) The current sanctions mechanism should be strengthened and enforced. This would include consideration of making participation in the African Union deliberations contingent on adherence to Summit decisions.

Operational management of the Union

i) The election of the Chairperson of the AU Commission should be enhanced by a robust, merit-based, and transparent selection process;

ii) The Deputy Chairperson and Commissioners should be competitively recruited in line with best practice and appointed by the Chairperson of the Commission, to whom they should be directly accountable, taking into account gender and regional diversity, amongst other relevant considerations;

iii) The Deputy Chairperson role should be reframed to be responsible for the efficient and effective functioning of the Commission’s administration;

iv) The title of Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson may also be reconsidered;

v) A fundamental review of the structure and staffing needs of the organisation, as well as conditions of service, should be undertaken to ensure alignment with agreed priority areas.

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC)

The Summit;

Adopted the ICC Withdrawal Strategy and called on member states to consider implementing its recommendations… But many countries entered reservations to the text.
Requested the Group of African States Parties in New York in collaboration with AU Commission to actively participate in the deliberations of the Working Group on Amendments to ensure that African proposals are adequately considered and addressed;

ADMISSION OF MOROCCO

The Summit;

Welcomed the request from the Kingdom of Morocco as it provides the opportunity to reunite the African community of states around the Pan-African core values of the Founders of solidarity, unity, freedom and equality, in accordance with the Principles and Objectives of the Constitutive Act. This will strengthen the ability of the African Union to find African solutions to African problems;
Decided to admit the Kingdom of Morocco as a new Member State of the African Union in conformity with Article 9(c) and Article 29 of the Constitutive Act of the African Union;
Requested Morocco to deposit their instrument of accession to the Constitutive Act of the African Union.

WESTERN SAHARA

The Summit;

Noted with deep concerns the continued impasse in the search for a solution to the conflict in and underlined the urgent need for renewed international efforts to facilitate an early resolution of the conflict. In this respect, the Assembly called again to the UN General Assembly to determine a date for the holding of the self-determination referendum for the people of Western Sahara and protect the integrity of the Western Sahara as a non-self-governing territory from any act which may undermine it.

Urged the UN Security Council to fully assume its responsibilities in restoring the full functionality of United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), as it is indispensable for overseeing the ceasefire and organizing the self-determination referendum in Western Sahara, as well as in addressing the issues of the respect of human rights and the illegal exploration and exploitation of the Territory’s natural resources, particularly in line with the important judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union issued on 21 December 2016, on the arrangement between the EU and Morocco signed in 2012, on the mutual liberalization of the trade in agricultural and fishing products.

PEACE & SECURITY

The Summit;

Emphasized the need for all AU Member States, in particular the PSC, to give more focus on conflict prevention, early warning and early response, in order to prevent, for future, occurrence of full blown conflicts in the continent.
Endorsed the African Union Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to Silence the Guns in Africa by year 2020, as a guideline for Africa’s efforts to this end.
Directed the PSC to establish a monitoring and evaluation mechanism on the basis of which the Assembly will periodically review progress in the implementation of the Master Roadmap;

FINANCING THE AFRICAN UNION

The Summit;

i) The Committee of Ten Finance Ministers should assume responsibility for oversight of the African Union budget and Reserve Fund and develop a set of ‘golden rules’, establishing clear financial management and accountability principles;

ii) After funding of the budget of the African Union and the Peace Fund, the balance of the proceeds of the 0.2% AU levy on eligible imports, the Committee of Ten Finance Ministers should look into placing surplus in a Reserve Fund for continental priorities as decided by the Assembly;

iv) The current scale of contributions should be revised based on the principles of ability to pay, solidarity, and equitable burden-sharing, to avoid risk concentration.

ELECTION AT THE LEADERSHIP OF THE UNION –

AU Chairperson for 2017: H.E. President Alpha Conde – Guinea

AU Learders elected 2017.jpg

Credit photo and draft decisions: African Union Commission

1 Comment Posted on January 19, 2017January 20, 2017 Africa, African Politics, Conflicts, Gambia Crisis

Gambia: Is the Swearing in of the President-Elect Legal?

See the French version here: https://assodesire.com/2017/01/19/gambie-la-prestation-de-serment-du-president-elu-est-elle-legale/

The new Gambian President Adama Barrow has just been sworn-in in an extraordinary circumstances. The ceremony took place at the Embassy of the Gambia in Senegal because of the refusal of the outgoing President Yahya Jammeh to leave power. Is it a legal act? I am sharing my personal opinions on the issue:

The legitimacy of the President comes essentially from his election by the people of Gambia who hold the national sovereignty exercised through elections. The majority of the Gambians have thus entrusted this sovereignty to the President by the elections that took place in December 2016.

The swearing in (or the taking of oath) is a statutory declaration of the President-Elect made before a judge or an oath officer during a public ceremony to formalize the President’s installation. What is important in the swearing in is the formula, provided for by law and read by the President. The oath is a promise announced in a ceremonious and public manner, insisting on the sacred and unswerving character of the words spoken with the affirmation of a divine bearing. It has to be done in front of a judge, a lawyer or a commissioner of oath. The place of the oath therefore has no bearing on its legal value. In fact, the constitution of the Gambia remains silent on the place where the taking of the oath should happen. It only referred to a “prescribed oath”.

Why was it important that President-elect Adama Barrow takes an oath on the 19^th January?

If President-elect Barrow has not taken the oath on this date there would be a power vacuum in the Gambia and anything could happen…including the army re-taking power. In addition, now that he has taken the oath, he becomes the legitimate president of Gambia and can now request a military intervention of ECOWAS to re-establish order in the Gambia including kicking the outgoing president out by all means without having the approval of the UN Security Council.

Is an embassy part of the national territory?

Contrary to popular belief, the embassy is not part of the national territory of the sending state. The Vienna Convention of 1961 on Diplomatic Relations does not provide for the extraterritoriality of embassies. However the mission is normally considered as a property and symbol of the state and the authorities of the sending state have absolute control over what is happening inside the embassy. Its inviolability is thus guaranteed by the Convention. For example, agents of the host country are prohibited from entering in, except with the consent of the head of the mission, and must “take all appropriate measures to prevent invasion of the premises of the mission”. Some countries even consider that their own national law and regulations apply inside their embassies.

In conclusion, the swearing in of President elect Adama Barrow took place on Senegal’s territory but it retains all its legal value.

Read my anticipated scenarios for Gambia’s next? here: https://assodesire.com/2017/01/17/political-crisis-in-the-gambia-scenarios-of-the-next-days/

1 Comment Posted on December 27, 2016January 4, 2017 Africa, African Politics, african union, Civic Space, Conflicts, Western Sahara

Perspectives pour l’Afrique en 2017:

English version here : https://assodesire.com/2016/12/27/africa-in-2017-opportunities-and-challenges/

Nous venons d’entrer dans l’Année 2017. Elle se présente à l’Afrique avec un cortège d’incertitudes mais elle porte aussi en elle des semences d’espoir…

Comme je le fais au début de chaque année j’aimerais partager ici avec vous des réflexions personnelles sur les défis et opportunités majeurs auxquels notre continent, ses institutions, ses filles et fils pourront faire face en 2017 et bien sûr au-delà.

En 2017 et au cours des années à suivre l’inégalité, les conflits et l’insécurité, la jeunesse et l’emploi, la migration, la démocratie électorale, l’espace civique, la libre circulation des personnes, la chine, la nouvelle politique américaine etc. seront des sujets qui occuperont le débat politique et la vie quotidienne des Africains. L’Afrique attendra beaucoup des promesses faites par l’Union Africaine avec son nouveau leadership et une structure améliorée mais les communautés économiques régionales auront de plus en plus de responsabilités dans la gestion des crises liées à la gouvernance démocratique et aux conflits. La Banque Africaine de Développent avec sa nouvelle équipe dirigeante pleine de dynamisme a un rôle de taille à jouer dans notre espace économique et principalement en ce qui concerne la jeunesse et l’emploi. Dans les lignes qui suivent je toucherai quelques-uns de ses sujets.

Croissance Economique, Inégalité et Pauvreté

Le taux de croissance moyen du continent continuera de dégringoler jusqu’en dessous de 2%, son niveau le plus bas depuis 20 ans principalement à cause de la chute du prix du pétrole des matières premières et des difficultés des principales économies du continent (Nigeria, Afrique du Sud) mais certain pays maintiendront un bon record, un taux toujours élevé pour diverses raisons (Rwanda, Ethiopie, Tanzanie, Cote d’Ivoire, Sénégal) selon de récentes estimations. La croissance économique n’ayant pas d’impact automatique et immédiat sur la réduction de la pauvreté, le problème le plus important pour nous est d’assurer que les produits de la croissance sont repartis de façon juste et qu’ils ne servent surtout plus à creuser davantage l’écart entre riches et pauvres, sachant que ceci est une source importante de conflits.

L’Afrique a maintenant de bonnes raisons pour investir dans l’agriculture, encourager et soutenir la productivité, introduire la modernisation dans le secteur et bien sûr, augmenter l’espace cultivable. Ceci aura le triple avantage de subvenir aux besoins alimentaires de nos populations, de créer de l’emploi et de diversifier notre économie pour ainsi réduire la pauvreté. Ceci aura aussi l’avantage de promouvoir les échanges entre pays Africains.

L’Année Africaine de la Jeunesse

L’Union Africaine a décrété l’année 2017 comme celle de la jeunesse. Les deux Sommets des Chefs d’état en Janvier et en Juillet ainsi que d’autres grand rendez-vous continentaux y seront donc consacrés. Il est évident que les préoccupations majeures seront l’emploi, la migration et la formation. Il importe que les différents acteurs du continent et leurs partenaires d’ailleurs s’accordent à donner à la jeunesse le coup de pouce dont elle a besoin ici et maintenant pour son insertion et son émancipation. Le Forum Africain pour le Développement qu’organisera cette année la Commission Economique des Nations Unies pour l’Afrique se penchera essentiellement sur la question de migration avec une perspective Africaine. La Chancelière Allemande Angela Merkel a aussi promis d’en faire une priorité au cours du prochain sommet du G20. Elle évoque même un « Plan Marshal » pour l’Afrique en vue de booster l’investissement et créer de l’emploi. Je n’aime pas personnellement l’idée d’un «plan Marshal» pour l’Afrique. Si nos partenaires occidentaux peuvent nous aider à mettre un terme aux 60 milliards de dollars de flux financiers illicites qui sortent de l’Afrique chaque année – un montant systématiquement volé par des multinationales en complicité avec nos propres dirigeants – cela nous suffirait. A Addis Abéba fin Janvier, l’Union Africaine se penchera certainement sur un plan d’action à court et moyen termes pour mieux « exploiter le dividende démographique de l’Afrique en investissant dans la jeunesse ».

Reste à savoir si la volonté politique et les moyens financiers seront au rendez-vous pour mettre en œuvre un éventuel plan. En tout cas, il faut vite faire pour éviter que cette tranche importante de nos populations, vulnérable, ne tombent d’avantage dans la tentation de la radicalisation et de l’extrémisme comme c’est déjà le cas à certains endroits du continent.

Notre jeunesse est l’espoir du continent. Elle doit être entretenue avec minutie pour contribuer à relever le défi du développement durable.

La Libre Circulation des Personnes en Afrique : Un Préalable Incontournable

Tout plan en faveur de la jeunesse Africaine doit inclure la libre circulation des personnes sur le continent comme un préalable. Le processus en cours à l’Union Africaine doit être accéléré au maximum afin de permettre l’échange d’expérience entre les jeunes du continent. En attendant l’élaboration et l’adoption du traité de libre circulation pourquoi ne pas prendre une décision panafricaine et immédiate d’annulation de visas pour court séjour, ou du moins d’obtention de visas à l’arrivée? Quelques pays Africains l’on fait récemment.

Droits de l’Homme, Gouvernance et Démocratie Electorale : Chantier Inachevé

Décrétée comme Année des droits de l’homme par l’Union Africaine, 2016 a plutôt été l’année ou les droits et libertés publiques, l’espace civique et démocratique, la justice, la protection des civiles etc. ont malheureusement et systématiquement reculé sur notre continent sous le silence presque total des institutions régionales et continentales. En Gambie par exemple un jeune activiste a été torturé à mort par la police en 2016 et de nombreux opposant politiques arrêtés et incarcérés sans procès…

L’Afrique doit trouver un moyen pour sortir du cercle vicieux des conflits liés à la crédibilité des consultations électorales et à l’alternance politique au pouvoir. Sans cela, notre continent continuera sa décente progressive aux enfers sapant ainsi toute perspective de développement économique. Les pays à observer en 2017 sont entre autres la Gambie, la RDC, le Cameroun, le Liberia, le Kenya, le Rwanda, l’Angola, la Libye, la Sierra Leone, le Zimbabwe… Les pays ou le hold-up électoral a été déjà consommé ne sont pas à l’abri de soucis (Gabon, Congo, Uganda, Guinée Equatoriale etc). L’alternance au pouvoir fait partie du jeu démocratique surtout quand les institutions sont encore faibles et que le système électoral est vulnérable. Nous devons avoir le courage de parler de la limitation des mandats tôt ou tard. C’est le seul moyen de se débarrasser des assoiffés de pouvoir qui s’accrochent. Pour l’instant les bons élèves sont encore peu dans ce domaine : Ghana, Sénégal, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Afrique du Sud…

Par ailleurs, l’année 2016 nous a montré en Ethiopie que l’idéologie de l’Etat développementaliste ne suffit pas à elle seule pour garantir la paix et la stabilité, gages du développent durable. Il faut une dose plus importante de démocratie multipartiste et plus de libertés publiques.

L’espace citoyen en danger: L’Union Africaine place les citoyens du continent au centre de son programme de développement : l’Agenda 2063. Un catalyseur essentiel de ce programme est le droit des citoyens de s’organiser, et leur capacité à agir contre la pauvreté, les inégalités et l’injustice. En fait, l’UA a proclamé 2016 comme « Année des droits de l’homme ». Pourtant, à travers le continent, il se dégage une tendance alarmante et croissante de restriction des droits fondamentaux de réunion, d’association et de liberté d’expression des citoyens. L’UA elle-même met en cause son engagement à la contribution des citoyens en limitant formellement la participation des organisations de la société civile à un de ses deux sommets biannuelles. En plus un certain nombre de gouvernements sont en train de (mal) utiliser les lois pour limiter la création d’organisations légitimes, restreindre leurs activités et contrôler leurs sources de financement. Depuis 2012, au moins 29 lois restrictives ont été adoptées en Afrique. Ce qui est sûr est que dans les années à venir le mouvement citoyen va plutôt se consolider et se renforcer en Afrique peu importe les restrictions, ce qui comporte et sérieux risque de bras de fer et de conflit entre pouvoir et citoyens. Nos institutions régionales et l’Union Africaines doivent tabler ce problème pour discussion le plus tôt possible. Elles doivent par exemple envisager une étude sur les lois restrictives en Afrique et un moratoire pour les arrêter. (Voir le blog que j’ai récemment publié conjointement avec un collègue sur la question ici : http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/why-is-africas-civil-society-under-siege/#.WFJTocPTjhI.twitter).

L’Union Africaine un Nouveau Départ ?

Si tout va bien comme prévu, le leadership actuel de la Commission de l’Union Africaine sera renouvelé. La Présidente, la Sud-Africaine Dlami-Zuma, le Vice-président le Kényan Erastus Mwencha et la plus part des commissaires devraient remettre leur tablier à de nouveaux élus fin Janvier pour 4 ou 8 ans. Des 5 candidats en lis, le poste de Président de la Commission se jouera essentiellement entre le Sénégalais Abdoulaye Bathily, ancien Représentant des Nations Unies en Afrique centrale, le Tchadien Moussa Faki Mahamat, ancien Premier Ministre et Ministre des Affaires étrangères et la Kenyane Amina Mohamed, Ministre des Affaires Étrangères.

En plus Le Président Guinéen Alpha Condé est en passe d’être désigné Président en exercice de l’UA pour 2017 en remplacement du Tchadien Idriss Deby.

Le projet le plus important et le plus attendu est la réforme en profondeur de l’Union Africaine confiée au Président Rwandais Paul Kagame par ses pairs. Il devra présenter les grandes lignes de cette réforme lors du Sommet de Janvier à Addis Abéba. La réforme devra tenir compte de la question épineuse de la dépendance financière de l’Union déjà amorcée par son compatriote, l’ancien patron de la BAD Donald Kaberuka.

Valeurs Partagées : S’il est clair que l’Union Africaine dans sa structure actuelle n’est pas adaptée pour mettre en œuvre l’ambitieux Agenda 2063, il nous est aussi certain que le changement structurel de l’Union et de ses organes ne suffira pas à lui seul pour faire avancer les choses. L’Union Africaine a besoin d’un changement profond et courageux dans sa façon de fonctionner en termes de respect de ses propres principes fondamentaux et de ses « valeurs partagées ». Il faut à l’Union un mécanisme sérieux de « redevabilité » par rapport à ses principes et valeurs. Il lui faut une Commission forte et dotée de pouvoirs réels pour « contraindre » les états membres à respecter et mettre en œuvre leurs propres décisions.

En matière d’élections par exemple, l’Union Africaine doit avoir la prérogative et la capacité de relever, dénoncer et faire cesser les manquements graves aux standards et fraudes électoraux. Si non, ce n’est pas la peine que l’Union continue d’observer les élections. Ce ne sera rien que du gaspillage. C’est un peu gênant de voir que les élections en Ouganda, au Congo, au Gabon en Guinée équatoriale etc. aient été qualifiées de justes, équitables, transparent et démocratiques sans autres formes de procès…

Paix et Sécurité :

La Paix et la Sécurité demeurent les conditions sine qua non pour le développement et le progrès de notre continent et le bien-être de nos populations. L’Afrique n’a pas progressé assez dans ce domaine au cours des dernières années. Dans beaucoup de cas comme au Burundi et au Soudan du Sud nos institutions n’ont pas tenus comptes des signes avant-coureurs et alertes précoces qui pourtant étaient assez visibles. En réalité ce dont nos institutions régionales ont besoin est le courage et la volonté politique de couper avec les anciennes méthodes. Par exemple la Commission de l’Union Africaine et plus précisément son leadership doit devoir et pouvoir crier haut et fort toutes les fois que nos valeurs partagées sont en train d’être violées par les leaders nationaux. C’est pourquoi nous avons besoin d’un leader fort et audible à la tête de la Commission. En 2017 l’Union Africaine doit encore gérer le chaos au Burundi et au Soudan du Sud. Le risque de nettoyage ethnique dans ces deux pays doit être absolument pris au sérieux. L’UA doit consolider le progrès en Somalie et en République Centrafricaine, et accompagner le processus politique et sécuritaire, redoubler de vigilance au Mali (même si l’ONU est techniquement en charge), soutenir le dialogue politique amorcé par l’Eglise Catholique en RDC et ses avancées encourageantes mais demeurer ferme sur le respect des principes démocratiques les droits de l’homme, l’Etat de droit et la justice. Le chantier inachevé du Darfour ne doit pas être négligé et le Soudan entier doit être sous sérieuse observation.

Faire Taire les Armes à l’horizon 2020 : Au-delà du Slogan: L’objectif demeure malheureusement un slogan sans action sérieuse pour le réaliser. Soyons clair : on ne peut pas taire les armes si on laisse les dictateurs terroriser et martyriser leurs populations à gré et en toute impunité en violation flagrante des principes démocratiques des droits de l’homme et des valeurs partagées adoptées par l’Union, et de plus, s’accrocher au pouvoir à vie ! On ne peut pas taire les armes si on ferme les yeux sur les massacres des populations civiles pour des raisons politiques. On ne peut pas taire les armes si on promeut l’impunité des chefs d’Etat sans considération de la gravité des crimes dans lesquels ils sont impliqués contre leurs populations. On ne peut pas taire les armes si les votes des citoyens sont systématiquement volés, les leaders de l’opposition politique harcelés et mis en prison. Par-dessus tout, les ambitieux projets de développement du continent ne peuvent se concrétiser que si la paix et la sécurité sont au rendez-vous.

L’Union doit mettre une plus grande pression sur les acteurs Sud Soudanais, Burundais, Congolais etc et s’assurer que les autres pays fragiles et à risque rentrent dans le jeu démocratique.

Avec ou sans le Maroc ?

Fin Janvier, nous saurons si le Maroc fera sa rentrée historique dans l’Union Africaine et dans quelles conditions ? Toutes les formalités procédurales ont été déjà accomplies. Le Sommet des Chefs d’Etat pourra donc prendre une décision là-dessus. Le Maroc devra donc souscrire à tous les principes fondamentaux de l’Union y compris le droit des peuples à l’auto-détermination et accepter de cohabiter avec la République Sahraoui Démocratique en tant qu’Etat membre de l’Union. Logiquement le retour du Maroc dans l’organisation continental est une reconnaissance tacite du Sahara Occidental par celui-ci. C’est juste une simple logique si on se souvient de la raison pour laquelle le Maroc a claqué la porte en 1984. J’espère que l’adhésion du Maroc à l’Union Afrique créera une opportunité de régler l’épineuse question du Sahara Occidental, considéré comme la dernière colonie en Afrique à libérer. Les Etats membres de l’Union, surtout les « amis » du Maroc (au moins 28 sont connus) doivent veiller à ce que le retour du Maroc contribue à consolider l’Union plutôt qu’à la diviser ou à la faire voler en éclat. (Voir mon blog sur cette question ici : https://assodesire.com/2016/10/02/le-retour-du-maroc-a-lunion-africaine-une-opportunite-ou-un-challenge/ )

La Chine, L’Amérique et les Autres

L’Afrique a tout à gagner en continuant la diversification de ses partenaires économiques. L’entrée en jeux spectaculaire de la Chine et des autres nouveaux partenaires a ouvertement changé les rapports de force avec les partenaires traditionnels et réorienté l’économie africaine. Mais nous devons garder les yeux grandement ouverts… Nos partenariats (anciens comme nouveaux) doivent contribuer à la realisation de nos agendas 2030 et 2063 et nous devons veiller à ce que les standards sociaux, des droits de l’homme et d’équité soient absolument respectés dans la poursuite de ces partenariats. Les acteurs non-étatiques ont un rôle majeur de veilleur à jouer ici.

Avec Donald Trump au pouvoir aux Etats-Unis, il est peu probable que l’Afrique figure au rang des priorités de « l’Oncle Sam », ce qui donnera libre cours à la Chine et aux autres de mieux se positionner en Afrique : avantage ou challenge ? Seul l’avenir nous le dira.

Calendrier – Quelques Grands Rendez-Vous

13-14 Janvier : Sommet Afrique-France : Thème: Partenariat, Paix et Emergence – Bamako, Mali.

23-31 Janvier : 28th Sommet de l’Union Africaine – Thème : Jeunesse – Addis Abéba, Ethiopie

23-28 Mars : Conférence Continentale des Experts et Ministres Africains des Finances, du Développent de la Planification et de l’intégration – Dakar, Sénégal

3-5 Mai : Forum Economique Mondial pour l’Afrique, Thème : Croissance Inclusive – Durban Afrique du Sud

Fin Juin : Sommet de l’Union Africaine, Thème : Jeunesse

Date à déterminer : Forum pour le Développent de l’Afrique, Thème : Migration, UNECA, Addis Abéba.

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