Month: November 2025

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Le G20 en Afrique: Le Sommet de Johannesburg doit être un tournant pour le Continent

Cette semaine, le G20 se tient pour la première fois en Afrique. Les dirigeants du monde entier se réunissent à Johannesburg sous le slogan « Solidarité, Égalité, Durabilité », alors même que le sommet est éclipsé par le boycott du gouvernement américain et par les doutes croissants sur la capacité du multilatéralisme à produire encore des résultats concrets.

L’Afrique ne s’est pas battue pour obtenir un siège à la table du G20 afin de figurer dans une photo de famille de plus. Avec l’Union africaine désormais membre permanent du G20 et l’Afrique du Sud à la présidence, ce sommet est un test : la gouvernance mondiale est-elle enfin prête à refléter les réalités et les droits de 1,3 milliard d’Africains ?

Depuis trop longtemps, l’Afrique est traitée comme un problème à gérer plutôt que comme un partenaire à écouter. Pourtant, sur les grands enjeux de ce siècle, la dette, le climat et les minerais critiques, le continent n’est pas une victime passive. Il est, de fait, créditeur net du reste du monde: en matière de résilience climatique, de richesses volées ou illicitement transférées, de travail et de ressources sous-évalués. La vraie question à Johannesburg est simple: le monde va-t-il continuer à extraire de la valeur de l’avenir de l’Afrique, ou enfin investir dans cet avenir?

Payer pour hier au lieu de construire demain

L’Afrique est en première ligne d’une urgence mondiale en matière de dette. Dans de nombreux pays, le service de la dette dépasse désormais les dépenses publiques de santé, d’éducation ou d’adaptation au climat. Le service de la dette absorbe déjà une part énorme des recettes publiques et des revenus d’exportation. Au moins 30 pays africains dépensent davantage en paiements d’intérêts qu’en santé publique. Concrètement, cela signifie des enfants qui apprennent sous des abris de fortune faute de moyens pour construire des salles de classe ; des femmes qui marchent plus loin pour aller chercher de l’eau faute d’infrastructures ; des paysans qui perdent leurs récoltes faute d’investissements dans l’adaptation climatique.

Ce n’est pas de la « discipline budgétaire ». C’est un transfert de chances de vie des citoyens africains vers les créanciers mondiaux. Cela enferme les gouvernements dans la gestion des dettes d’hier au lieu d’investir dans les capacités de demain.

L’Afrique du Sud a eu raison de placer « la soutenabilité de la dette des pays à faible revenu » au cœur de son agenda pour le G20, aux côtés de la résilience face aux catastrophes, du financement d’une transition énergétique juste et de la mobilisation des minerais critiques pour une croissance inclusive. Mais les belles formules et les communiqués ne suffiront pas. L’Afrique a besoin de mesures concrètes, assorties d’échéances claires, qui transforment l’architecture de la finance mondiale, et pas seulement son discours.

Minerais critiques : du statut de carrière à celui de puissance

L’Afrique détient une part significative des réserves mondiales de nombreux minerais critiques qui sous-tendent les transitions verte et numérique : lithium, cobalt, manganèse, nickel, terres rares, entre autres. Pourtant, le continent ne capte qu’environ 5 % de la valeur créée par l’exportation de ces matières premières, alors qu’elles génèrent des milliards de dollars pour le reste du monde.

Une grande partie de cette valeur quitte encore le continent sous forme de minerai brut, pour revenir ensuite sous forme de batteries, de composants et de technologies, vendus à un prix multiplié. C’est le vieux schéma colonial, habillé de vert.

De plus en plus de gouvernements africains réagissent. Près de la moitié ont introduit une forme de restriction sur les exportations de produits non transformés, en recourant à des politiques telles que des interdictions d’exportation, des obligations de contenu local et des stratégies de valorisation pour sécuriser l’emploi, les capacités industrielles et l’apprentissage technologique sur le continent. Ce n’est pas du « nationalisme des ressources », c’est du bon sens.

Si l’Afrique continue d’exporter des matières premières et d’importer des produits finis, elle finance la prospérité des autres avec son propre futur. Le G20 ne peut pas parler de « transition énergétique juste » tout en s’attendant à ce que l’Afrique reste une simple carrière pour la croissance verte des autres. La course aux minerais critiques ne doit pas se transformer en nouvelle ruée vers l’Afrique.

Un sommet marqué par des absences, mais l’Afrique ne peut pas attendre

Le symbole est fort. Au moment même où le monde a désespérément besoin de davantage de coopération, les États-Unis ont choisi de boycotter purement et simplement le sommet. D’autres dirigeants ont réduit leur niveau de participation. Ces absences fragilisent l’image du rendez-vous de Johannesburg, mais elles n’en diminuent pas les enjeux pour l’Afrique.

Si celles et ceux qui ont conçu et profité du système actuel se retirent de leurs responsabilités, alors celles et ceux qui en ont payé le prix doivent avancer avec des solutions. C’est précisément pourquoi le statut de membre permanent de l’Union africaine au sein du G20 est essentiel : il confère une légitimité politique et une autorité morale pour exiger des changements plus ambitieux.

Ce que le G20 doit accomplir à Johannesburg

Pour que ce sommet soit à la hauteur de son hôte africain, les dirigeants du G20 devraient quitter Johannesburg après s’être mis d’accord sur au moins trois engagements concrets :

1. Créer un cadre de traitement de la dette équitable et prévisible 
Le G20 doit mandater la conception d’un mécanisme de traitement de la dette souveraine plus juste, plus transparent et limité dans le temps, incluant l’ensemble des créanciers : bilatéraux, multilatéraux et privés. Ce mécanisme doit permettre une restructuration complète là où elle est nécessaire et déclencher automatiquement un moratoire en cas de chocs majeurs, climatiques ou sanitaires. Le patchwork actuel de « cadres communs » ad hoc a échoué.

2. Adopter un « Pacte de Johannesburg » sur les minerais critiques et la valeur ajoutée 
Le sommet devrait reconnaître le droit des pays africains à recourir à des politiques industrielles – restrictions à l’exportation, règles de contenu local, stratégies de chaînes de valeur régionales – pour gravir l’échelle de la valeur minière. Le G20 devrait soutenir un « Fonds pour les minerais verts et la valeur ajoutée » dédié, afin de réduire les risques liés aux investissements dans le traitement, le raffinage et la fabrication en Afrique, en lien avec la Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine et la Vision africaine des mines. Chaque tonne extraite doit contribuer à bâtir des industries, des emplois et des capacités technologiques africaines.

3. Placer l’Union africaine au centre de la prise de décision du G20 
L’adhésion de l’UA doit se traduire par un réel pouvoir de définition de l’agenda, et pas seulement par un siège supplémentaire dans la salle. Les dirigeants devraient s’engager à une coprésidence formalisée de l’UA dans les groupes de travail clés sur la dette, le développement et le climat, appuyée par un mécanisme permanent de liaison UA-G20. L’UA doit être impliquée dès la conception de l’agenda jusqu’à la mise en œuvre et au suivi.

Ces propositions ne sont pas radicales. Elles constituent le minimum nécessaire pour aligner les décisions du G20 sur ses principes affichés de solidarité, d’égalité et de durabilité.

Passer du symbole au changement structurel

Johannesburg offre une convergence rare : l’Afrique accueille le principal forum économique mondial ; l’Union africaine y siège comme membre à part entière ; et la présidence met explicitement l’accent sur la justice en matière de dette, le financement climatique et les minerais critiques au service du développement. L’Histoire ne jugera pas ce sommet à l’aune de celles et ceux qui manquaient sur la photo de famille. Elle jugera si, sur le sol africain, les plus grandes économies du monde ont reconnu que la poursuite du « business as usual » n’est plus compatible avec la vie de 1,3 milliard d’Africains.

Si Johannesburg ne produit que des déclarations vagues et des promesses recyclées, le message adressé aux Africains sera clair : lorsque nous accueillons le monde, il vient pour le symbole, pas pour le fond. Mais si le sommet débouche sur de véritables engagements en matière de dette, de minerais et de justice climatique, il pourra marquer le début d’un nouveau contrat entre l’Afrique et le reste du monde, un contrat dans lequel les Africains ne sont pas seulement une ligne dans un communiqué, mais les auteurs de leur propre avenir économique.

L’Afrique apporte sa voix, sa vision et ses preuves à ce G20. La charge de la preuve repose désormais sur les dirigeants réunis à Johannesburg. Vont-ils continuer à traiter l’Afrique comme un fournisseur périphérique de matières premières et de paiements d’intérêts, ou comme un partenaire à part entière pour bâtir une économie mondiale plus juste ?

Ce qui se passera à Johannesburg cette semaine répondra à cette question – non seulement pour l’Afrique, mais aussi pour la crédibilité du G20 lui-même.

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Debt is Robbing Africa’s Future… The G20 Must Change the Game

In Johannesburg, on 17 November 2025, as G20 delegates gather on African soil for a historic summit, a parallel gathering sent an even louder moral message: “Debt is Robbing Africa’s Future… The G20 Must Change the Game.”

Development experts, economists, civil society actors and multilateral partners came together around a simple but radical premise: Africa is not merely a continent in debt. It is a net creditor to the world, in climate, in stolen wealth, in undervalued labor and resources, and it is time the global financial system reflected that reality.

The high-level policy dialogue was co-hosted by the African Union Commission, UNDP, UNECA, AFRODAD and the Open Society Foundations, under the theme: “Rethinking Debt Sustainability and Exploring Alternative Financing Models Better Suited to Africa’s Context.”

The message was clear: the current system is morally indefensible, economically unsustainable and politically dangerous. The discussion did not stop at lament; it set out what must change, on the continent and in global forums, if Africa is to move from perpetual crisis management to structural transformation.

What follows are the core takeaways from that conversation.

Africa Spends More on Debt than on Hospitals and Classrooms

The headline numbers are alarming:

African external debt climbed from just over US$500 billion in 2020 to more than US$1 trillion by 2024. In 2024 alone, African countries spent about US$163 billion on debt service according to the AfDB. More than 25 African countries are already in debt distress or at high risk of it. African countries often borrow at interest rates around four times higher than those paid by advanced economies, despite sometimes similar or better fundamentals.

Behind these numbers lies a harsh reality: in many African countries, more money now goes to creditors than to health and education combined. Over half of the continent’s population lives in countries where teachers, nurses and social services are effectively competing with bondholders and banks – and too often losing.

At the same time, Africa is losing tens of billions every year through illicit financial flows and unfair trade, while carrying the costs of a climate crisis it did not cause. Taken together, the continent is effectively a net creditor to the world, in climate, in resources, and in stolen wealth, yet it is still treated as a perpetual debtor in the global financial system.

Structural Traps: Food, Fuel and the Manufacturing Deficit

Why does African debt keep returning in waves? Because three deep structural deficits keep feeding the debt trap:

  1. Food deficit: Africa now imports the bulk of its food, despite vast arable land and strong farming traditions. Colonial and post-colonial policies turned many African countries into exporters of cash crops, while basic staples are imported from elsewhere. Every ton of food produced domestically is future debt avoided, yet the continent remains over-exposed to volatile global food prices and exchange rates.
  2. Energy deficit: Even major oil producers export crude and import refined fuels at higher prices. In the green economy, the pattern risks being repeated: Africa exports critical minerals but struggles to mobilise finance and technology to build its own renewable energy infrastructure. Every kilowatt-hour generated domestically is imported fuel, and future borrowing, saved.
  3. Manufacturing and value-added deficit: African economies export low-value raw materials and import high-value finished products and sophisticated inputs. Local manufacturing depends heavily on imported machinery, technology and intermediates. This structure locks in trade deficits, weakens currencies, and fuels the need for constant external borrowing to plug balance-of-payments gaps.

The result is a vicious cycle: currency pressures and imported inflation push governments to subsidize food and fuel in the short term, while borrowing more hard currency in the medium term, which in turn deepens the next debt crisis. Debt is not just a number; it is the price Africa pays for a global economic model that keeps it at the bottom of the value chain.

There is no sustainable solution to Africa’s debt problem without structural transformation – in food systems, energy systems and industrial policy. Debt must be linked to a long-term plan to escape the role of raw-material supplier and become a driver of value-added production.

We Have Written It Down. Will Anyone Listen?

Africa is no longer speaking with a fragmented voice. In 2025, African finance ministers endorsed a Common African Position on Debt, anchored in an earlier AU decision in Lomé on debt. That position calls for fairer, faster, more transparent restructuring and a broader definition of sustainability that reflects climate, development and social needs, not only creditor comfort.

Africa arrives at the G20 with clear, unified asks:

1/ Reform of the G20 Common Framework

Faster, time-bound and transparent processes.

Automatic standstills on debt service during negotiations.

Fair burden-sharing among all creditors, including private bondholders.

Inclusion of debt-distressed middle-income African countries, not only low-income ones.

2/ Fairer global liquidity and borrowing costs

Reformed SDR allocations and quota formulas that recognise Africa’s real weight and needs.

Support for an African Credit Rating Agency to counter biased assessments and punitive risk premia.

3/ A new understanding of debt sustainability

Debt assessments that integrate development and climate needs, not just narrow debt ratios.

Recognition of Africa’s status as a net creditor in ecological and historical terms.

A shift from short-term crisis management towards long-term investment in structural transformation.

4/ Domestic responsibility with international fairness

Stronger domestic resource mobilisation, better governance and transparency.

Determined efforts to curb illicit financial flows.

A clear focus on using borrowed resources for productive, inclusive and climate-resilient investments.

Fixing the Architecture: From the IMF to the United Nations

The discussion moved from diagnosis to concrete reforms of the global debt architecture.

Many participants stressed that the current system, dominated by the IMF, the Paris Club and the G20 Common Framework, suffers from deep conflicts of interest. Institutions that lend, advise and judge at the same time cannot credibly act as neutral arbiters in sovereign debt workouts.

Key proposals included:

  • A UN-led framework for sovereign debt resolution, built on principles of fairness, inclusiveness and transparency, where all countries have a voice and no single creditor bloc dominates.
  • An African High-Level Panel on Debt, building on the legacy of the High-Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows, to monitor implementation of AU decisions, coordinate African positions and maintain pressure for global reform.
  • A re-imagined role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), with reformed quota formulas that better reflect the real size of African economies and their populations, and with SDRs channelled through African institutions such as the African Development Bank to support long-term investment rather than short-term firefighting.
  • Creation of a Pan-African Commodity Stabilisation Fund. Many African economies are highly dependent on a small number of commodities. A continental stabilisation facility could pool risks across multiple countries and commodities, and provide automatic, rules-based support when prices drop below agreed thresholds. This would help countries avoid the sharp external shocks that drive them into crisis and default. Such a mechanism would complement other AU-driven initiatives, including proposals for an African financial stability mechanism and a debt monitoring framework.

Conclusion: From Robbed Futures to a Different Destiny

If debt is robbing Africa’s future, it is also stealing something less visible but equally vital: possibility. Every dollar wired to a creditor instead of a clinic is a child not vaccinated, a girl sent home from school, a community left in the dark. Every budget cut to social protection is a silent decision about whose life is expendable.

Africa is the youngest continent on earth, with the creativity, talent and energy to power a different global future. Yet its children are growing up under the shadow of debts they did not incur, to pay for a crisis they did not cause, through a system they did not design. That is not just inefficient. It is unjust.

The G20 summit in Johannesburg is more than a diplomatic milestone. It is a moral test. Will the world’s most powerful economies continue to treat Africa as a risk to be contained and a resource to be extracted? Or will they finally recognise it as a partner whose prosperity is essential to shared global stability?

Africa has done its part: it has analysed the problem, articulated common positions, and put concrete solutions on the table. The blueprint for change exists. What is missing is the political will to act on it.

Debt should not be a life sentence. With courage from African leaders, honesty from creditors, and solidarity from citizens across the globe, it can become a bridge, from vulnerability to resilience, from extraction to transformation.

We have written it down. We have said it, clearly and collectively: Debt is robbing Africa’s future. The G20 must change the game. The only open question now is whether those with power will choose to listen, and to act, before another generation is forced to pay the price.

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Africa’s Critical Minerals: The G20 Must Choose Partnership Over Extraction

Across Africa’s vast land and ocean floors lie the minerals that will power the world’s green transition, digital revolution, and technological future. These minerals are not the margins of tomorrow’s economy, they are its spine. They determine who builds the cars, manufactures mobile phones, stores the energy, runs the servers, and controls the military and space technologies of the next century.

The Open Society Foundations and partners’ policy discussion today, in the margins of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg generated a solid roadmap! Here are my 7 takeaways:

Africa holds the ingredients of global power at a scale the world cannot ignore. Yet the question confronting the continent is not whether the world needs Africa. It is whether Africa is ready to lead, not follow; to bargain, not beg; to industrialize, not export raw; to become a rule-maker, not just a rule-taker.

As geopolitical tensions intensify, the United States, the European Union, China, and emerging powers are racing to secure long-term access to African minerals, using industrial policies, bilateral deals, and global pressure to reshape supply chains. Africa has become the epicenter of a new global scramble, one fought not with armies, but with subsidies, regulations, Environmental Social Governance standards (ESG), and strategic diplomacy.

This is Africa’s critical minerals moment, not just to be part of the global green transition, but to shape its terms, its industries, and its benefits. What Africa chooses to do now will decide if it becomes a leader in the new green economy, or remains just a place where others come to dig up raw materials.

1. A New Global Scramble, But This Time Africa Must Set the Terms

At the first G20 Summit ever held on to African soil, the continent finds itself at the center of the most consequential geopolitical realignment since the industrial revolution. The race for critical minerals, cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, rare earths, has triggered a new scramble, but this time powered by the urgency of the green transition and the anxieties of national security.

The old world is maneuvering aggressively.

  • The United States has unleashed the Inflation Reduction Act, industrial policy whose benefits flow mostly inward.
  • The European Union, facing Chinese dominance in battery and EV manufacturing, has erected its Critical Raw Materials Act; a shield for European industries.
  • China, already controlling 60% of refining and 80% of global battery manufacturing, continues to consolidate its strategic lead.

Meanwhile, Africa, home to 30% of global critical mineral reserves and 70% of the world’s cobalt, remains a marginal actor in the value chain, capturing less than 5% of the wealth generated by the minerals it exports.

2. The G20 in Johannesburg: A Mirror and a Moment

Africa must convert its mineral wealth into negotiating power, or others will convert it for us.

This moment is not just about minerals.
It is about power.
It is about narrative.
It is about agency.
It is about Africa refusing to be the “supplier of last resort” for a green economy built elsewhere.

3. Fragmented Countries Cannot Negotiate with United Continents

A recurring warning emerged from the panels: global powers have learned a tactical truth. It is easier to negotiate with Africa one country at a time, not as a continent.

This is how the “green colonialism” of the 21st century is unfolding: Isolate a government, offer a bilateral MoU, promise investments, small, quick, politically appealing, capture long-term mineral supply, secure value-addition on foreign soil.

This is why Europe’s Global Gateway, and the U.S. Mineral Security Partnership look generous on paper but are deeply strategic in practice. They secure raw materials, not African industrialization.

As one expert warned: “If you isolate Ghana, you get a lithium deal. If you isolate Zimbabwe, you get a cobalt deal. But if Africa stands together, the world must negotiate differently.”

Africa needs bargaining power, bargaining power requires unity, Unity requires political leadership.

4. Industrialization is Not a Smelter. It Is an entire Ecosystem.

One myth must die for Africa to rise: the myth that industrialization is about building a smelter and calling it transformation.

A smelter does not create an economy. It is energy-intensive, capital-heavy, low-employment, and often detached from local needs.

“Africa’s opportunity is not just in the rock. It is in the engineering, logistics, innovation, manufacturing and services around it.”

This is how future could look like:

  • battery precursors in Zambia-DRC,
  • graphite processing in Mozambique,
  • green steel in South Africa,
  • cathode manufacturing in Namibia,
  • electric motorcycle plants in Kenya,
  • solar panel assembly hubs in North Africa
  • and more…

Africa can no longer be told it “lacks markets.” Markets are built, not waited for.
China built its market. Europe built its market. Africa must now build its own.

5. Political Courage: The Missing Ingredient

Many African countries remain trapped by predictable political constraints:, negotiating contracts in secrecy, prioritizing royalties instead of jobs, allowing foreign companies to dictate standards, failing to invest in geological mapping, underfunding universities and technical faculties, ignoring artisanal miners, women, and local communities, and, treating industrial policy as an afterthought rather than a national mission

6. Communities Must Not Become Casualties of the Green Transition

The extractives history of Africa is written in: displaced communities,polluted rivers, gender based violence, corporate impunity, destroyed ecosystems, and broken promises.

The green transition risks repeating all of this, only faster. Communities must be co-owners of the future, not victims of it. This means:

  • Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) must be real, not cosmetic.
  • Women must benefit from mining, not be excluded from it.
  • Royalties must serve communities, not elites; 1% is unacceptable.
  • Environmental assessments must be public, enforceable, and community-driven.
  • Artisanal miners must be supported, not criminalized.

Africa cannot trade justice for development. There is no trade-off. Justice is development.

Our Foundations’ Resource Futures Programme (Opportunity) is clear about rights, transparency, communities, gender equity, and accountability. These are not peripheral; they are central to the industrial future Africa must build.

7. A Roadmap for African Power in the New Mineral Order

Here are what G20 leaders, especially South Africa and the African Union must champion:

An African Critical Minerals Alliance: A continent-wide coalition modeled on the “Lithium Triangle” of Latin America, focused on common standards, coordinated pricing, uniform beneficiation targets, and joint negotiation platforms.

A Pan-African Critical Minerals Fund: Capitalized by AfDB, Afreximbank, African sovereign funds, and diaspora financing to invest in geological mapping, refineries, industrial parks, battery corridors, and African-owned manufacturing ventures.

Continental Standards for Transparency and FPIC: No more secret deals. No more exploitation of communities. No more extractive colonialism wearing green clothing.

Regional Industrial Corridors: Scale is Africa’s currency. No single country can industrialize alone. DRC-Zambia Battery Corridor, Lobito Corridor, and new SADC/EAC/ECOWAS industrial zones must become the backbone of African manufacturing.

A Continental Electrification and Green Mobility Plan: Africa’s minerals must power African energy systems. No industrialization is possible without affordable, reliable energy.

Technology Transfer as a Non-Negotiable: Partnerships that do not share technology are not partnerships. They are extraction agreements.

The world cannot achieve a green transition without Africa, but Africa can fail to benefit from that transition if it hesitates, fragments, or negotiates poorly.

The world needs Africa. Africa must now decide what it needs from the world.

An Influencing Space!

A telling moment at our side event showed just how far our influence is beginning to reach. When a member state steps into a space we created, it is more than participation; it is recognition of our growing authority. This was clear when the representative of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country central to the world’s cobalt supply, not only attended our critical minerals session but insisted on taking the floor. His intervention underscored a simple truth: the conversations we are driving are now shaping national positions, not just reflecting them.

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G20 Summit: When the World Comes to Africa

In a world divided by wars, inequality, and distrust, it is easy to forget that cooperation is still possible, and necessary. Yet in a few days, the world’s 20 largest economies will gather for the first time on African soil, when South Africa hosts the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg.

As I prepare to join the Open Society Foundations’ Team to participate in the various policy influencing gatherings around this historical moment in our continent, I would like to share this article in 7 quick points on the fundamentals of G20, why does it matter and what is at stake at this particular meeting.

You can also read my article “The African Union at the G20, Now What?” published in 2023 when the continental body became a full member of the Group.

1. What Exactly Is the G20 and Why Does It Matter?

The Group of Twenty (G20) is not a formal organization with a treaty or a secretariat. It is a forum of major economies ; 19 countries plus the European Union, and, since 2023, the African Union as a permanent member. Together, these members account for around 85% of global GDP, 75% of trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population.

Created in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and elevated to leaders’ level during the 2008 global recession, the G20 was designed to prevent economic shocks and coordinate policies on trade, finance, and growth. But in recent years, its agenda has expanded to include climate change, digital transformation, health, debt, and inequality; the most crucial issues of our time.

The G20 has no binding power. Its strength lies in influence and direction-setting. When its leaders agree on principles, those tend to shape the policies of the World Bank, IMF, WTO, OECD, and multilateral development banks.

2. How Does the G20 Work?

The G20 runs on a rotating presidency system. Each host sets the annual theme, convenes meetings, and steers negotiations toward a Leaders’ Declaration at year’s end.

There are two main tracks:

  • The Finance Track, led by finance ministers and central bank governors, covers debt, taxation, global financial stability, and reform of multilateral banks.
  • The Sherpa Track, led by appointed national representatives shapes the political and developmental agenda: climate, trade, gender, health, digital, and more.

Around these formal meetings orbit the engagement groups: the B20 (business), T20 (think tanks), C20 (civil society), Y20 (youth), L20 (labour), and W20 (women). These forums allow business leaders, academics, activists, and youth voices to influence the official agenda.

3. The G20 Troika: Steering the Ship

At the helm of this sprawling system sits what’s known as the G20 Troika, a three-member steering mechanism composed of the past, current, and incoming presidencies. For 2025, that means Brazil, South Africa, and the United States.

The Troika ensures continuity and coherence, preventing the G20 from turning into a series of disconnected host-year projects. Under this configuration, Brazil’s developmental priorities, South Africa’s equality agenda, and America’s upcoming geopolitical stance are meant to align, though that is easier said than done.

This particular Troika is geopolitically fascinating: it brings together three continents and three contrasting worldviews, Latin America’s focus on social justice, Africa’s call for fairness, and America’s realist power politics. How they navigate their differences will determine whether the G20 remains a platform for cooperation or becomes another theatre of global rivalry.

4. What’s at Stake in South Africa’s 2025 G20

South Africa has chosen the theme “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability.” It speaks directly to the heart of global tensions: how to make globalization fairer, how to finance development and climate justice, and how to ensure the voices of emerging economies are heard.

a) Reforming Global Finance

Pretoria wants to push for a new deal on development finance, faster and fairer debt treatment for developing countries, reforms to make multilateral development banks “better, bigger, and bolder,” and a recognition that economic stability cannot exist without climate resilience.

African and other Global South nations face unsustainable debt servicing costs. South Africa’s message is clear: the financial architecture built in the 20th century no longer serves the 21st.

b) Tackling Inequality

In August 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa launched a G20 Taskforce on Global Inequality, chaired by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, to propose ways to close the wealth gap within and between nations. This is an important issue not just for Africa but globally,  a moral and economic imperative to ensure growth benefits all.

c) Africa’s Voice, Finally Heard

With the African Union now a full G20 member, the continent can finally speak for itself rather than being spoken for. Expect key side sessions on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), industrialization, critical minerals, climate adaptation, and food security, all framed within Agenda 2063, our continental business plan.

South Africa’s challenge will be to turn symbolism into influence: translating Africa’s presence into concrete outcomes on finance, trade, and representation.

5. The Side Conversations That Matter

Beyond the leaders’ sessions, Johannesburg will host a series of side summits and engagement meetings:

  • The B20 in Sandton will debate how to scale private investment into Africa’s green and digital economy.
  • The T20 and C20 will focus on knowledge and civic advocacy; from climate justice to digital governance.
  • A Social Summit is planned to bridge policy with lived realities, giving voice to labor unions, civil society, and youth groups.
  • And many more…

If managed well, these parallel tracks could make the 2025 summit the most inclusive G20 in history.

6. Geopolitics on the Horizon: The U.S. Presidency Awaits

As the summit closes, South Africa will hand the presidency baton to the United States, ushering in the 2026 cycle under President Donald Trump.

This transition is likely to reshape the tone and priorities of the G20. From his previous to his current term, Trump often dismissed multilateralism as “globalist bureaucracy,” withdrew the U.S. from major climate commitments, and clashed with African nations, including South Africa over trade, immigration, and political values.

If history is any guide, Washington’s return to the chair may turn the G20 toward hard transactionalism rather than solidarity. However, global realities have changed: the war in Ukraine, the emergence of several other economic powers, and the growing assertiveness of the Global South mean that no single power, not even the U.S. can dictate the agenda alone.

The South African presidency, in that sense, may become the bridge year that sets boundaries: asserting that Africa’s concerns including debt relief, equitable energy transition, and representation, are now central, not peripheral, to global decision-making.

7. The Difficult Conversations

Even as Johannesburg prepares to welcome the world, divisions remain:

  • Debt restructuring remains painfully slow under the G20’s Common Framework.
  • Climate commitments are uneven, with disagreements on phasing out fossil fuels.
  • Wars in Europe and the Middle East risk hijacking the declaration text.
  • Reform of international institutions, including the IMF and World Bank, remains politically charged.

South Africa’s diplomacy will be tested, balancing moral clarity with pragmatic coalition-building.

This G20 is historic not only because it is being held in Africa, but because it may redefine what leadership looks like in a fractured world.

For Africa, it is an assertion of agency. For South Africa, it is a chance to prove that dialogue across divides is still possible. For the G20, it is a reminder that solidarity and sustainability are not slogans, but survival strategies.

If Johannesburg 2025 can deliver even a modest consensus on fairer finance, inclusion, and global cooperation, it will mark the beginning of a new era; one where the Global South is not at the margins, but at the centre of shaping the future of global governance.

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