African Politics

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Africa in 2025 and Beyond

My 7-Point Forecasts and Analysis of the Continent’s Political, Social, and Economic Landscapes.

We have just entered 2025! As we move into the mid-2020s, several indicators suggest that Africa is on the verge of a transformative era, provided the continent is effectively managed and stakeholders make the right choices. However, the year 2025—and likely the years to follow—also presents a range of challenges and uncertainties.

As I always do at the beginning of each year, I would like to share some reflections on the major opportunities and challenges our continent, its people, and institutions may face in 2025 and beyond. I will also share key upcoming/influencing moments to prepare for.

Inequality, conflicts and insecurity, youth and unemployment, migration, debt, development financing, electoral democracy, civic space, free movement of people, China, the BRICS, the new Trump presidency, etc. will occupy the policy and political debates and the daily life of Africans. Africans will expect much from the African Union with its new leadership and its so-called improved structure for a faster implementation of the Agenda 2063. Still, the regional economic communities will have increased responsibilities as they continue their difficult discussion on their scope of intervention, subsidiarity, and complementarity with the continental body.

With its 54 countries (55 AU member states) rich in diversity, culture, and resources, the continent will be playing an increasingly pivotal role in the global landscape.

Politically, Africa will continue witnessing waves of movements and civic engagements, mostly by young people demanding reforms, accountability, better governance, and better life conditions. In many countries, leaders will continue struggling to navigate pressing domestic demands and international pressures.

Socially, with a population expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2025, the youth bulge presents both opportunities and challenges. Employment will be a critical area of focus as young people demand opportunities to fulfill their potential. Additionally, issues related to social justice and human rights will continue to resonate.

Economically, Africa will need to speed on capitalizing on its immense potential to drive growth and innovation. The continent is rich in the most needed natural resources today. The deployment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a significant step towards economic integration and collaboration. 2025 may bring more progress in implementing the AfCFTA as African nations understand the importance of diversifying their economies and reducing dependency on external markets.

In 2025, African countries will enhance green mineral processing fueled by the aspirations to maximize the benefits of the extractive industries and leverage robust renewable energy resources. Mineral-rich countries will seek new partnerships to advance their value-addition objectives. This trend needs to be supported.

Given the ongoing global geopolitical trends, African countries will likely enhance their positions and secure more representation in global platforms, with the South African presidency of the G20, the African Union’s full membership of the group, as well as the inclusion of Ethiopia and Egypt in the BRICS.

Tensions between France and Francophone African countries that started with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso will likely escalate as more francophone countries reassess their historical ties with the former colonial power.  As global power dynamics evolve, many Francophone African countries are increasingly looking toward new partners beyond France, including China, Russia, and other emerging economies seeking alternative pathways for development, trade, and security, leading to a gradual disillusionment with France as the primary partner.

Pressed by various actors, South Africa’s G20 Presidency launched a Cost of Capital Commission to investigate factors hindering low- and middle-income countries from accessing affordable capital. South Africa’s presidency presents a unique opportunity to enhance the continent’s development priorities on the global stage. The debt crisis in developing countries has escalated to critical levels. In Africa, public debt soared by 240% between 2008 and 2022, resulting in many nations allocating more resources to debt interest payments than to healthcare. This scenario hampers their capacity to invest in sustainable development and climate resilience.

By examining the trends, challenges, and opportunities that lie ahead, my aim in sharing these analyses at the beginning of the years has always been to provide a roadmap for policymakers, CSOs, philanthropies, businesses, and other stakeholders to navigate the complexities of Africa’s evolving landscape.

1/ Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty

Despite some economic growth and impressive resilience, Africa’s structural transformation will likely still be inconsistent in 2025.

According to the African Development Bank, growth in Africa is expected to increase only to around 4.3 percent in 2025. But given that economic growth does not automatically and immediately impact poverty reduction, the continent’s most challenging task is to ensure that the products of growth are distributed fairly and that they are no longer used to widen the gap between rich and poor, knowing that this is an important source of conflict.

Africa now has good reasons to invest in modernized agriculture, encourage and sustain productivity, and, of course, increase cultivable lands. This will have the threefold advantage of meeting the food needs of our people, creating jobs, and diversifying the economy. It will also promote regional trade among African countries, taking all the advantages from the AfCFTA.

Funding challenges will remain as African governments continue to face financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and looming debt repayments. To adapt to these challenges, in addition to the urgent need to reform the Global Financial Architecture, African countries should deploy internal structural reforms to diversify funding sources and their economies. The fight against illicit financial flows (IFF) should be intensified, as progress here will catalyze more fiscal space for governments.

Trade/AGOA: As the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its expiration in September 2025, the uncertainty regarding its renewal presents significant challenges for investment in key sectors like textiles, agriculture, and the automotive industry. AGOA has played a crucial role in facilitating trade and economic development between the United States and eligible sub-Saharan African countries by providing duty-free access to U.S. markets for a range of goods. However, as negotiations around its renewal progress, it is essential for the continent to secure a better deal. So, should AGOA renewal be placed on the agenda, the African side should advocate for a comprehensive review and enhancement of the agreement to ensure its effectiveness in the current landscape, particularly in light of the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Here are key elements to consider:

  • Alignment of Trade Policy, including harmonizing regulations and standards across the participating countries to facilitate smoother trade flows between U.S. and African markets
  • Regional Value Chains to promote the development of regional value chains in Africa, allowing countries to collaborate on producing goods that meet AGOA requirements while leveraging the strengths and resources of multiple countries within the AfCFTA framework.
  • Specific Support for SMEs and Startups: Both AGOA and AfCFTA seek to foster inclusive economic growth, and reforms could include dedicated support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Creating programs that assist SMEs in meeting export standards and accessing financing would bolster their capabilities to participate in global trade.
  • Trade Facilitation Initiatives: Integrating trade facilitation measures from AfCFTA into AGOA can streamline customs procedures and reduce trade barriers. This could include the adoption of technology in customs operations and cross-border trade facilitation measures that are consistent with AfCFTA protocols. Revisions to AGOA could also encourage partnerships between U.S. firms and African businesses participating in AfCFTA. Such collaborations can drive investment, innovation, and technology transfer, ultimately benefiting both economies.

2/ African Union Theme of 2025: “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations”

Reparations, encompassing reparatory justice for historical crimes and mass atrocities committed against Africans and people of African descent, have consistently been integral to the full decolonization process advocated by the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) and now the African Union (AU) since its establishment in 1963. Over the past three decades, the African Union has made numerous decisions and supported initiatives aimed at championing justice and advocating for reparations to Africans. It has also focused on the restitution of cultural artifacts, relics, and heritage that were pillaged during colonization and enslavement, working toward returning these items to the African countries from which they were taken. The Assembly of the Union decided that the theme of the Year for 2025 will be ‘‘Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.’’. Leaders have also designated the reparations for transatlantic enslavement, colonialism, and apartheid as a Flagship Issue and Project of the Union.

To enhance advocacy for an African common position on reparations and forge a united front on reparations for Global Africa, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana was appointed as the African Union Leader on Advancing the Cause of Justice and Payment of Reparations to Africans. This appointment may be transferred to the new president of Ghana, John Mahama.

The upcoming AU Summit in February 2025 will likely adopt a roadmap for implementing the theme on the continent and in the diaspora.

3/ Human Rights, Governance and Electoral Democracy: Unfinished Business

Liberties and freedoms, civic and democratic space, justice, and the protection of civilians are still in trouble on the continent, mostly because regional and continental institutions remain silent.

Africa must also find a way out of the vicious circle of election credibility and the needed political alternation in power. Without this, our continent will continue its progressive descent into hell, thus undermining any prospect of economic development.

Change at the helm of power is a crucial aspect of the democratic game, particularly in contexts where institutions remain weak, and the electoral system is susceptible to manipulation. We need to keep discussing the issue of limiting presidential terms, as this is often the only effective way to remove leaders who persistently cling to power in the context of flawed elections. Currently, only a handful of African countries exemplify this democratic principle, including Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, and South Africa.

4/The African Union: A New Start?

The current leadership of the African Union Commission will be largely renewed during the February 2025 Summit. The current Chairperson, Moussa Faki from Chad, the Deputy Chairperson, Dr. Monique Nsanzabaganwa from Rwanda, and most of the commissioners should hand over power to newly elected officials for a four-year term.

In addition, Angolan President João Lourenço is likely to be appointed Chairperson of the AU for 2025 to replace the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Ghazouani.

Angolan diplomacy, historically engaged in resolving continental conflicts, particularly in the Central African Republic and the Great Lakes region, has a golden opportunity to impact the continent.

President João Lourenço has several advantages. First, his role as a mediator between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, to help end the conflict between the two neighboring countries provides him with experience and credibility. Second, his ability to maintain good relations with global powers—such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union—as well as with regional leaders, including India, Brazil, and South Africa, is essential for ensuring that Africa is given a greater presence in international forums.

5/ Peace and Security:

Peace and security remain a serious prerequisite for the continent’s development and progress and the well-being of its people.

Africa has not made enough progress in this area in recent years. In many cases, such as in Sudan, our institutions have not acted seriously on early warning signs that were quite visible. What our regional institutions need are courage and the political will to cut with old methods. For example, the leadership of the African Union Commission must be able to speak out loudly whenever national leaders are violating our shared values and challenge them. That is why we need strong and audible leaders at the AU Commission.

The current state of conflict on the African continent is marked by complex and interlinked dynamics. Major conflict situations are interconnected with sub-national issues across the five geographical regions, resulting in conflicts that are either spreading into new areas, involving an increasing number of actors, witnessing a rise in fatalities, or deteriorating overall due to the escalation of their root causes.

Regional crises will continue impeding development efforts. Wars, armed conflicts, and extreme weather conditions have forced millions to flee their homes.

As reported by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), approximately 35 million Africans were living as refugees or displaced persons within their own countries at the end of 2024.

Additionally, the convergence of global megatrends such as climate change, energy transition, and migration intensifies the already intricate conflict landscape in Africa. Climate change poses a significant threat to the continent, manifesting in rising temperatures, altered weather patterns, and environmental degradation. These challenges jeopardize agricultural productivity and food security while exacerbating existing regional vulnerabilities.

The ongoing shift toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources offers both potential benefits and challenges for Africa. While this transition can help reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change, it necessitates considerable investment and infrastructure development. The lack of reliable energy access further deepens inequalities and can lead to social unrest.

At present, each region of Africa faces a distinct combination of these challenges, greatly influencing the continent’s conflict-related security landscape in unique ways.

Major Conflicts & Risky Situations to Watch Closely in Africa

In 2025, Africa will still have to manage the following hot spots:

  • Sudan: Sudan continues to face internal conflicts and political instability. I hoped that Sudan’s civil war would come to an end in 2024. Unfortunately, international mediation efforts have not succeeded. With ongoing support from foreign backers, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have resumed intense fighting in Khartoum, Al Jazirah State, and around Al Fashir in Darfur. In December, the Sudanese government accused Chad of having authorized the firing of Emirati drones from its soil and towards Sudan. The army, which is fighting the rebels of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemetti, now believes that N’Djamena is, through an alliance with the United Arab Emirates, directly engaged against it in the civil war, and in particular in the Darfur region. Looking ahead to 2025, international mediation efforts will advance little unless the current stalemate is resolved.
  • Sahel Region: Over the last decade, the region has been shaken by extremist uprisings and military coups. Three Sahelian nations, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, are now ruled by military leaders who have taken power by force on the pledge of providing more security to citizens. The Security crisis is complex, and the situation is worsening with record numbers of attacks and civilians killed both by Islamic fighters and government forces.
  • Ethiopia: Ethiopia has been grappling with various conflicts, notably the conflict in the Tigray region, where fighting between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and government forces has led to a humanitarian crisis, including mass displacement and reports of human rights abuses. Ethnic tensions and unresolved grievances in other parts of the country also contribute to the ongoing conflict.
  • DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo’s complex and long-standing conflict situation is a pending concern for the continent’s stability. Various armed conflicts, including clashes between rebel groups, inter-communal violence, and attacks by armed militias, have plagued the country. The conflicts are often fueled by competition over natural resources, such as minerals, leading to violence and instability in the region. The eastern part of the DRC, particularly in the provinces of Kivu, continues to be a hotspot for violence in the fight between the government and the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23. This is leading to widespread casualty and displacement of civilians, human rights abuses, and a humanitarian crisis.
  • Ethiopia and Egypt: Their relationship has been strained since 2011 when Ethiopia started building and filling the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a project that Egypt sees as a significant risk to its water and food security. The situation worsened further as Egypt strengthened its relationship with Ethiopia’s competitor, Somalia. In addition to sending troops, weaponry, and ammunition to Somalia, Egypt plans to conduct joint military exercises with the country. Egypt’s warming relationship with Somalia has raised concerns in Addis Ababa, as Ethiopia disagrees with Mogadishu over a maritime agreement that Ethiopia recently reached with Somaliland.

Silencing the Guns by 2030: Beyond the Slogan: Unfortunately, this campaign, with an initial deadline set for 2020 and then moved to 2030, remains a slogan without serious action to realize it by tackling the root causes of the conflicts.

Efforts to silence the guns must extend beyond rhetoric; it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity of African institutions to proactively prevent conflicts in a more comprehensive and timely manner rather than relying solely on reactive conflict resolution strategies.

Conflicts across the continent emerge from various structural vulnerabilities, including environmental challenges, competition for access to and the illegal extraction of natural resources, social unrest driven by poor and unaccountable governance, the proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons, and the rise of religious radicalization.

6/ Prioritizing Socioeconomic Development Over Military Solutions

Achieving sustainable peace in Africa necessitates addressing the root causes of conflicts, which are frequently tied to poverty, inequality, limited access to education, and social injustices. By prioritizing socio-economic development rather than military solutions, African countries can create a foundation for enduring peace and prosperity for their citizens. It is essential to invest in sectors capable of driving economic growth and generating opportunities for the youth. The continent can establish an environment conducive to long-term stability and prosperity by directing resources toward these areas and implementing supportive policies.

Agriculture, the backbone of many African economies, offers significant potential for stimulating economic growth and creating employment opportunities for young people. With its vast arable land and an expanding population, Africa can harness agriculture to enhance food security, increase job prospects, and foster sustainable development. By investing in modern farming techniques, expanding market access, and supporting smallholder farmers, the continent can unlock the full potential of its agricultural sector and empower youth in rural communities.

Adding Value to Africa’s Strategic Critical Mineral Resources

Many conflicts on the continent are driven by the exploitation of natural resources. Therefore, African nations must prioritize taking control of and adding value to these vital resources. The strategic minerals in Africa—such as gold, diamonds, cobalt, platinum, and rare earth elements—are crucial for modern industries, including technology, green energy, and infrastructure. However, the extraction and trade of these resources have frequently been plagued by corruption and exploitation, resulting in instability and human suffering in various regions. African countries must assert their sovereignty over their mineral resources to disrupt this cycle of conflict and foster sustainable peace. By establishing transparent and accountable governance systems, countries can prevent the illicit exploitation of their minerals and ensure equitable distribution of benefits among their citizens. This approach will not only address the root causes of conflicts but also promote economic development and social advancement.

Pan-African institutions must work together to enhance understanding of the challenges within the mining sector and align with the African Mining Vision (AMV) objectives. Accelerating research and data collection to identify the key obstacles hindering the implementation of the AMV is also important. The continent must invest in building the capacity of stakeholders in the mining sector to tackle these challenges effectively and encourage collaboration among industry participants, government agencies, and civil society to develop innovative solutions for sustainable mining growth.

National governments should be empowered to implement policies encouraging value addition to mineral and agricultural products.

7/Africa and the Rest of the World

Africa has everything to gain by continuing to diversify its economic partners. The spectacular positioning of China and other new partners in Africa has openly changed the balance of power with traditional partners and reoriented the African economy and development process. But the continent must keep its eyes wide open. Africa’s partnerships (old and new) must contribute to the realization of our agendas 2030 and 2063, and we must ensure that social, human rights and equity standards are absolutely respected in the pursuit of these partnerships. Non-state actors have a major watchdog role to play here.

I do not anticipate a significant emphasis on Africa policy from the incoming Trump administration. However, the United States cannot afford to overlook Africa, as the continent is at a critical juncture that presents numerous opportunities for both economic and diplomatic engagement. With a population approaching 1.5 billion and an economy that has shown resilience amid global challenges, Africa is emerging as a key player on the world stage.

Key Moments in 2025 (This section will be updated as new events are planned)

  • African Union Summit & election of new AU leadership:  12-16 February 2025
  • 50th Anniversary of ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States will celebrate its fiftieth anniversary in May 2025, at a moment when three founding members—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—announced their withdrawal from the organization in January 2023. They have declared their decision to be irrevocable, despite attempts at mediation, and have subsequently established a new entity known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Their official withdrawal from ECOWAS is set to take effect on January 29, 2025, in accordance with the organization’s regulations. The 50th anniversary of ECOWAS offers an opportunity to rethink and improve the mandates and working methods of the subregional body.
  • The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development will be held in Seville, Spain, from 30 June to 3 July 2025. The conference will address new and emerging issues and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals and support reform of the international financial architecture.
  • Elections: Unlike 2024, 2025 is expected to be more stable, with fewer major elections, mostly in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tanzania, along with the promised end of transition in Gabon and Guinea. Here is the election calendar for 2025 by EISA. Further analysis of Africa’s upcoming elections can be found here.

  • Artificial Intelligence Summit in Kigali: On April 3 and 4, 2025, Rwanda will host the first Global AI Summit in Africa in Kigali. This event is organized by the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Rwanda and the World Economic Forum. With the belief that AI could contribute $2.9 trillion to the African economy by 2030, the summit aims to explore economic opportunities for the African workforce. It will bring together global leaders, government ministers, CEOs, civil society representatives, startups, investors, and international organizations to shape Africa’s role in the global AI economy.

  • COP, Women’s Rights: 2025 will also mark the 10th anniversary of the COP21 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Goals and the 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action on Women’s Rights.

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Sièges Permanents pour l’Afrique au Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU : La Proposition Américaine est-elle acceptable ?

English Version here.

Il y a une demande croissante et une urgence pour améliorer l’efficacité et la capacité des Nations Unies à maintenir la paix et la sécurité internationales. La configuration actuelle du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU ne reflète pas les réalités géopolitiques d’aujourd’hui. Pour l’Afrique, en particulier, un continent de 1,4 milliard de personnes, avoir des sièges permanents à part entière au CSNU ne vise pas seulement à corriger une injustice historique, mais c’est aussi une question de légitimité et de crédibilité du Conseil.

Les États-Unis viennent d’annoncer leur soutien à la création de deux sièges permanents pour les États africains au Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies, mais ils ont exclu l’extension des Droits de Veto aux nouveaux membres permanents.

L’Afrique accepterait-elle cette offre ?

La position commune actuelle de l’Afrique, connue sous le nom de “Consensus d’Ezulwini“, appelle à deux sièges permanents avec toutes les prérogatives et privilèges de la qualité de membre permanent, y compris le droit de veto, et à cinq sièges non permanents.

Le Droit de Veto a historiquement entravé l’efficacité et l’équité du Conseil dans le traitement des questions de paix et de sécurité internationales. L’Afrique est donc, en principe, favorable à son abolition pour renforcer la fonctionnalité du Conseil. Cependant, si les États membres choisissent de maintenir le Veto, il devrait être étendu à tous les nouveaux membres permanents pour des raisons de justice et d’équité. La réforme du Conseil de sécurité devrait alors envisager soit l’absence du Veto pour tous, soit un Veto pour chaque membre permanent.

Il est donc peu probable que le continent accepte la proposition des États-Unis pour deux sièges permanents sans Droits de Veto. Dans le contexte actuel, une adhésion permanente des pays africains au Conseil sans Droit de Veto serait inutile et sans effet. Cela ressemblerait plutôt à un statut de “membres permanents de deuxième classe”. Certains analystes sur le continent le qualifient de statut ” d’observateurs permanents” au Conseil.

Quels pays peuvent représenter l’Afrique au Conseil de Sécurité ?

Malgré le fait que le Consensus d’Ezulwini stipule que l’Union africaine devrait être chargée de sélectionner les représentants de l’Afrique au Conseil, le continent n’a jusqu’à présent pas réussi à établir les critères de choix des deux candidats africains pour les sièges permanents parmi ses 55 États membres.

Les pays africains doivent s’engager dans un dialogue constructif et une collaboration pour établir des objectifs et critères communs pour le choix des représentants qui serviront au mieux les intérêts du continent.

Il serait important de prendre en compte des facteurs tels que la capacité, l’importance géopolitique, l’expérience diplomatique, la représentation régionale, l’engagement à respecter le droit international et les droits de l’homme, et la capacité à jouer efficacement dans ce système global complexe.

Devrait-on pousser les pays avec de vastes populations et/ou de grandes économies et capacités diplomatiques, comme le Nigeria, l’Égypte, l’Algerie, le Maroc, l’Éthiopie ou l’Afrique du Sud ? Devrait-on réserver un siège pour l’organe continental, l’Union africaine ? Sur ce dernier point, la difficulté sera que l’Union africaine est encore un organe purement intergouvernemental sans autorité supranational. Les États membres conservant leur souveraineté entière et leur pouvoir de décision, et l’UA agit uniquement comme un forum de coordination, de coopération et de consultation entre ses États membres. Le continent a un sérieux travail à faire à ce sujet.

Redevabilité

En délibérant sur sa représentation au CSNU, l’Union africaine doit également envisager de mettre en place un mécanisme de redevabilité pour ses représentants au Conseil de Sécurité . Nous savons comment les jeux de pouvoir, l’influence politique et la pression peuvent influencer les décisions et les votes aux Nations Unies. L’histoire récente nous rappelle qu’en 2011, les trois membres africains non permanents du Conseil de sécurité (Gabon, Nigeria, Afrique du Sud) ont soutenu la Résolution 1973 du CSNU, autorisant les actions militaires de l’OTAN en Libye, malgré les efforts continus de l’Union africaine pour trouver une solution pacifique à la crise. La résolution a été présentée par la France, le Royaume-Uni et le Liban.

Modifier la Charte des Nations Unies

Une modification de la Charte des Nations Unies serait nécessaire pour changer la composition du Conseil. L’article 108 de la Charte des Nations Unies dispose qu’une modification nécessite le soutien de tous les cinq membres permanents (P5) et la majorité des deux tiers des États membres de l’ONU à l’Assemblée générale. Ce ne sera certainement pas un processus facile.

Le prochain Sommet de l’Avenir, qui se tiendra en marge de l’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies, crée une opportunité supplémentaire pour corriger la gouvernance mondiale et de revitaliser le système multilatéral, y compris une réforme équitable du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU qui prend en compte le besoin urgent de le rendre plus représentatif, inclusif, transparent, efficace, démocratique, crédible et responsable.

Vos commentaires et suggestions sont les bienvenus sur ce site ou directement à mon adresse e-mail : Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com  ou Assogbavi@me.com.

Restez à l’écoute pour plus de mises à jour sur les questions panafricaines et de l’Union africaine.

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Africa’s Permanent Seats at UN Security Council: Is the United States Proposal Acceptable?

La version en Français ici.

There is a growing demand and an urgency to increase the effectiveness of the United Nations’ abilities to maintain international peace and security. The current configuration of the UN Security Council does not reflect today’s geopolitical realities. For Africa, in particular, a continent of 1.4 billion people, having full permanent seats at the UNSC is not just about redressing a historical injustice. It is also a matter of legitimacy and credibility of the Council.

The United States has just announced its support for creating two permanent seats for African States at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), but it ruled out extending veto rights to new permanent members.

Would Africa accept this offer?

The current African common position, known as the “Ezulwini Consensus,” calls for two permanent seats with all the prerogatives and privileges of permanent membership, including the right of Veto, and five non-permanent seats.

The veto power has historically hindered the Council’s effectiveness and fairness in addressing global peace and security issues, so Africa is, in principle, in favor of its abolition to enhance the Council’s functionality. However, if member states opt to maintain the veto power, it should be extended to all new permanent members for the sake of fairness and justice. The UNSC reform should then consider either no Veto at all or a Veto for every permanent member.

So, it is unlikely that the continent will accept the United States proposal for two permanent seats without veto rights. Considering the current setting, a permanent membership of African countries at the UNSC without Veto Power is meaningless. It will look more like a “second-class” membership status. Some analysts in the continent see this status as a “Permanent Observer Membership” at the Council.

Which countries to represent Africa?

Despite the Ezulwini Consensus stipulating that the African Union should be responsible for selecting Africa’s representatives in the Security Council, the continent has so far been unable to establish the criteria for choosing the two African candidates for permanent seats among its 55 member states.

African countries must engage in constructive dialogue and collaboration to establish common goals and criteria for selecting representatives who will best serve the continent’s interests.

What factors should determine who represents the African continent? This process may involve considering factors such as capacity, geopolitical importance, diplomatic experience, regional representation, commitment to upholding international law and human rights, and the ability to play within this complex global system effectively.

Should the continent push countries with large populations and/or big economies and diplomatic capacity, such as Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, or South Africa? Should a seat be reserved for the continental body, the African Union? On the latter, the difficulty will be that the African Union is still a purely intergovernmental body with no supranational authority. Member states maintain their sovereignty and decision-making power, and the AU only acts as a forum for coordination, cooperation, and consultation among its member states. The continent has serious homework to do on this.

Accountability

While deliberating on its representation, the African Union may also consider putting in place an accountability mechanism for its representatives at the UNSC. We know how proxy games, political influence, and pressure can impact decisions and votes at the United Nations. Recent history reminds us that in 2011, all three African non-permanent members of the Security Council (Gabon, Nigeria, South Africa) backed UNSC 1973, authorizing NATO’s military actions in Libya despite the African Union’s ongoing efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis. The resolution was tabled by France, the UK, and Lebanon.

Going forwards…

An amendment to the UN Charter would be needed to change the composition of the Council. Article 108 of the UN Charter states that an amendment requires the support of all Permanent Five (P5) members and a two-thirds majority of UN member states in the General Assembly. This will surely not be an easy process.

The upcoming Summit of the Future, to be held on the margins of the UN General Assembly, creates an additional opportunity to correct global governance and reinvigorate the multilateral system, including a fair reform of the UN Security Council that recognizes the urgent need to make it more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic, credible, and accountable.

Your comments and suggestions are welcome on this site or directly to my email address: Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com  or Assogbavi@me.com .

Watch this space for more updates on Pan-African & African Union matters.

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Africa’s Development Trajectory: Ensuring a Fair Transition

On 10 June 2024, I participated in the Spring Meeting of the  Paris Peace Forum hosted by the prestigious Mohamed VI University in Benguerir, Morocco, under the theme “Fair Transition,” with highlights on 1/ climate and development, 2/ agriculture and nutrition, 4/ energy and transition minerals, and 4/ global health. The Forum has brought together governments, universities, research bodies, civil society, and the private sector.

In addition to participating in the general plenary discussions, I spoke alongside global heavyweight experts, politicians, academics, and practitioners at the launch of a new initiative called the Agricultural Transition Lab for African Solution (ATLAS).

ATLAS will advocate for a globally shared vision of a sustainable African agricultural transformation based on a better understanding of African needs, breaking away from North and South divides, and seeing agriculture and climate as partners rather than adversaries.

Here are my key takeaways from various sessions, group discussions, and bilateral engagements during the very packed day of the forum:

A green energy transition that meets the needs of developing countries and is paired with imperatives of poverty reduction.

The transition towards cleaner and more renewable energy sources should balance the well-being of the planet and the development and prosperity of poor people who contribute the least to environmental degradation. To tap into the existing abundant source of green energy, there is a need for heavy global solidarity. International partnerships and cooperation are essential in supporting Africa’s energy transition. By sharing knowledge and expertise, mobilizing financial resources, and fostering technology transfer, the global community can help accelerate the shift towards a more sustainable energy future for all.

Agriculture, food and nutrition

Agriculture and nutrition are indispensable prerequisites for Africa’s development journey.

African food security is key in the face of a rapidly growing population and the ever-growing threat of climate change: 60% of Africans face food insecurity, 61% of the African population lives on wages below $2/day, and 2/3 of arable land is at risk of desertification. There is an imperative to transform Africa’s agricultural sector into a dynamic, modern, and sustainable engine of growth. Agriculture remains the backbone of many African economies, employing a significant portion of the population and contributing substantially to GDP.  

Investing in Africa’s agriculture should go beyond just increasing crop yields; it also entails fostering a holistic approach to food security/sovereignty and nutrition. As Africa seeks to chart a course towards sustainable development, it is imperative that agriculture and nutrition remain central to the continent’s agenda. From empowering smallholder farmers and agribusinesses to scaling up nutrition interventions and promoting dietary diversity, the possibilities for transformative change are vast and promising for the continent.

From extractives to wealth creation in Africa

African countries should move from exporting mineral resources to prioritizing value addition and industrialization to capture more of the value from these resources. Africa can boost job creation, foster innovation, and drive economic growth by processing raw materials locally and developing higher value-adding industries. This shift towards industrialization is integral to promoting sustainable development and reducing Africa’s traditional role as a mere supplier of raw materials.

Adding value to natural resources in Africa has the potential to promote entrepreneurship and support small and medium-sized enterprises as engines of economic growth. African governments and development partners should boost initiatives to provide financing, training, and mentorship to entrepreneurs, enabling them to create innovative businesses that contribute to job creation and economic prosperity. 

Africa needs to plan a phase-out of ODA.  

It is undeniable that Official Development Assistance (ODA) has been instrumental in catalyzing progress. Aid flows have facilitated the building of schools and hospitals, the provision of clean water and sanitation, and the implementation of crucial social welfare programs. However, there are compelling reasons for African nations to consider planning a phase-out of aid dependency.

In the face of ongoing global development, there is growing consensus among experts that a shift towards self-reliance and sustainable development is paramount for Africa’s long-term growth and prosperity.  Aid trap will cause the continent to miss out on the numerous existing opportunities to take off. Aid is becoming more and more unpredictable and subject to geopolitical agendas, making it an unreliable and unsustainable source of funding for development projects. This will hinder long-term planning and result in fragmented and short-term solutions that fail to address the root causes of poverty and underdevelopment in Africa. 

Phasing out from aid can foster accountability and good governance. When governments are not solely reliant on external donors for funding, they are encouraged to be more transparent and responsive to their citizens’ needs. This shift can lead to more efficient and effective resource use, reducing the risk of corruption and mismanagement that often plague aid-funded projects. Transitioning towards self-reliance can stimulate domestic innovation and entrepreneurship as countries are forced to find locally-driven solutions to their development challenges. This can lead to the creation of sustainable businesses and industries that generate jobs and economic growth, ultimately reducing poverty and improving livelihoods.

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The Pact for the Future; the Role of Africa

On the road to the upcoming Summit of the Future #SOTF, which will be held in September this year at the United Nations in New York, I was asked to share my thoughts about the role of Africa in the “Pact for the Future” that will be discussed and hopefully adopted at the said global Summit.

The discussion, hosted by the African Union’s ECOSOCC, happened virtually today.

After studying the 20-page zero draft of the Pact for the Future, with its 148 paragraphs, I can say that it is a comprehensive and well-elaborated document. I strongly recommend you read it fully. As it is a zero draft, it is open for input from various stakeholders before the September summit.

From financing sustainable development to international peace and security to science, technology, innovation, and digital cooperation, from the needed improvement of global governance to the urgent reform of the international financial institutions for better and increased resources, the draft of the Pact for the Future seems to be a completed memorandum to fix our world, save People, and save the Planet!

The question I have to answer now is, what should be Africa’s role in all of these?

Here are my 3 key ideas:

1/ First, Africa should have better representation at the Table.

This is critical for a meaningful contribution of the continent, in resolving the global issues mentioned in the draft of the Pact for the Future. Africa continues to be underrepresented in key international institutions and decision-making processes. This lack of representation not only hinders Africa’s ability to shape global policies actively but also perpetuates a cycle of inequality and imbalance in international relations. Africa can indeed play an impactful role in global affairs and can make significant contributions to addressing pressing global issues. Whether it is within international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund or at the UN Security Council, a fairer representation is essential to making things right!

Elevating Africa in global governance is not just a matter of fairness or justice; it should be seen as a strategic imperative for building a more stable, prosperous, and sustainable world for all. By giving space to Africa’s diverse voices and experiences, we can create a more inclusive and equitable global order that reflects the richness and diversity of our planet.

2/ We need to shift the current perspective on Africa’s role. The Continent should be seen as an important part of the solution, not just a warehouse or a reservoir of natural resources.

The continent is bringing demography & human resources. Africa represents 1.4 billion people, which is about 17% of the global population. Most of them are young, intelligent, dynamic, and willing to participate in the development process. This population will rise to 25% by 2050. The continent has a vibrant workforce and is experiencing a surge in innovation and entrepreneurship. By supporting and collaborating with African innovators, the global community can benefit from their transformative solutions.

In addition, Africa would bring wealth and natural resources. Africa is one of the world’s richest geographical regions in terms of its endowment with natural resources, with 60% of the world’s renewable energy assets and more than 30% of the minerals key to renewable and low-carbon technologies. Africa has the largest unused arable land, a heavy green energy potential, and other strategic, critical materials. From its vast mineral deposits to its fertile agricultural lands, the continent has much to offer. With proper management and sustainable practices, Africa’s resources can help address global challenges such as food security, water scarcity, and renewable energy.

One of the key global issues that Africa would greatly help address is climate change. Besides mitigating the impact of climate change, Africa also would contribute significantly to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

3/ My 3rd & last point is more about looking inward…Charity needs to start at Home

It would not be enough for the continent to sit at the table; Africa needs to clean its own house and ensure that, we resolve some of the problems that are in our capacity to fix.

We know them:

  • We call them shared values, and we adopted them at the AU, ECOWAS, SADC, EAC, etc
  • We call them accountability, peer review
  • We call them good governance, the rule of law;
  • We name them solidarity, fair sharing of national resources, and diversity management.

If we work seriously on them, Africa will be more apt/ready to play a meaningful role in the pact.

I would like to conclude by wondering if the simple discussion and adoption of the Pact for the Future will lead us to the promised land…

Whether at the UN, the African Union or the RECs… If only half of the various texts we have adopted have been implemented, I am sure we would have been at a different level…

So, what needs to be different now?

This is a question that you all can propose answers to, during the discussions.

What about a robust accountability mechanism for the realization of these commitments of the Pact for the future?

What could be the form of such a mechanism?

I thank you for your attention!

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Outcomes of the African Union Summit in 7 Points

Published on 19 February 2024. This blog will be updated as more information comes in.

Official decisions of the just-ended African Union Summit will not be available for several weeks as per the practice, but based on intel, comments by delegations, and corridors discussions, here are what seem to be the 7 key outcomes of the Summit held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from the 14th – 18th February 2024.

The theme of the Summit and the year 2024 is: “Educate an African Fit for the 21st Century: Building Resilient Education Systems for Increased Access to Inclusive, lifelong, quality, and Relevant Learning in Africa.”

The Summit adopted a Road Map on the theme devoted to Education and called upon the African Union Commission, AUDA-NEPAD, Regional Economic Communities, United Nations organizations, Development Partners, Civil Society Organizations, the Youth, and all other stakeholders to continue strengthening their support to Member States by facilitating the implementation of the roadmap.

The following issues have actually dominated the discussions at the Summit:

1/ Multilateralism & International Governance

Africa at the UN Security Council

The African Union reiterated that full representation of Africa in the reformed United Nations Security Council means:

  • i) Not less than two (02) Permanent seats with all the prerogatives and privileges of Permanent membership, including the right of veto.
  • ii) Five (05) Non-permanent seats.
  • iii) The African Union reserves the right to select its representatives for election to the UN Security Council to act in its name and on its behalf.

Proposed Modalities for the Participation of the African Union in the G20 and Preliminary Priorities

At the G20, AU aims to leverage Africa’s position in the world economy as well as contribute to meeting the emerging global challenges

Participation in the Leaders’ Summit:

  • The Chairperson of the African Union, assisted by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, will represent the African Union (previously decided)
  • The Chairperson of the Commission to propose positions to the Assembly to be advanced as African Common positions in the G20 Leaders’ Summits.
  • The Chairperson of the African Union, assisted by the Chairperson of the Commission to debrief the Assembly on the outcomes of the G20 Leaders’ Summits at the February sessions of the Assembly each year.

Participation in Ministerial meetings

  • The Chairperson of the African Union Executive Council, assisted by the Chairperson of the Commission to represent the African Union in the G20 Meetings of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs.
  • The Chairpersons of the AU Specialized Technical Committees, assisted by the respective Commissioners, to lead African Delegations to G20 sectoral Ministerial Meetings
  • The Chairperson of the Specialized Technical Committees (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning, and Integration, assisted by the Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Minerals to attend the meetings of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, assisted by the respective Commissioner(s);
  • The Ministerial Representatives to the G20 to propose draft African common positions through the Specialized Technical Committees for consideration by the Executive Council before it is advanced in the G20 Ministerial meetings and Leaders’ Summits

Sherpa and Sous Sherpa

  • The Chairperson of the African Union to appoint a Sherpa. As the AU G20 contact point, the Sherpa shall coordinate with the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the AU Member States on the positions to be advanced in the various G20 Ministerial, Task Forces and Working Group meetings to ensure that the African Union prepares common positions ahead of each G20 meeting and speaks with one voice in the G20 meetings;
  • The Chairperson of the Commission to appoint a Sous-Sherpa to: (a)Act as liaison between the Commission and the Chairperson of the Union; (b)Work with and Deputize the Sherpa; (c)Report to the Chairperson of the Union on G20 matters.

South Africa, the only current African permanent member of the G20, will share lessons of experience in the G20 with the African Union.

Africa’s preliminary priorities at the G20 will be as follows: the reform of the international financial architecture, debt restructuring, food security and agriculture, energy transition, trade and investments, improving Africa’s credit rating to boost investment, health, and vaccine manufacturing.

Financing AU participation in the G20

African Development Bank (AfDB) and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) pledged to provide initial financing for the participation of the African Union in the G20.

Delegation of Power: The Executive Council (Foreign Ministers) will deal with G20 issues on behalf of the Assembly during its July Ordinary Sessions of the Council and, when necessary, convene extraordinary sessions.

2/ Election of the new leadership of the AU Commission (February 2025)

The Summit discussed the principles of inter-and intra-regional rotation following the English Alphabetical order under the decision Ext/Assembly/AU/Dec.1(XI) adopted during the 11th Extraordinary Session in November 2018 on the institutional reform of the Union as well as Article 14 of the revised Statute of the Commission.

If this is implemented, candidacies should be submitted based on a predictable inter-regional rotation with the allocation of specific portfolio(s) to regions as follows for the next election:

For example, considering the upcoming elections, if this principle is applied, we would have the following conditions for each position:

1. Chairperson of the AUC – Only the Eastern region may submit candidates.

2. Deputy Chairperson – Only the Northern region may submit candidates.

3. Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment – Only the Southern region may submit candidates.

4. Economic Development, Trade, Industry, and Mining – Only the southern region may submit candidates.

5. Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation – Only the Western region may submit candidates.

6. Infrastructure and Energy – Only the Western region may submit candidates.

7. Political Affairs, Peace & Security – Only the Central region may submit candidates.

8. Health, Humanitarian Affairs, and Social Development – Only the Central region may submit candidates.

At this time, it is unclear whether the AU will go with this principle for the upcoming elections.

3/ Institutional Reform of the African Union: President Kagame steps down, and President Ruto takes over.

Frustrated by what most analysts call the “failure of the AU institutional reform” 6 years after the beginning of the process, President Paul Kagame decided to step down from championing the project. The Summit then appointed President William Ruto of Kenya as the new AU Champion on Institutional Reform. The remaining reform priorities are to be finalized by February 2025.

4/Peace and Security

The following situations have been discussed with no major decisions:

The tension between Ethiopia and Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger Mali, Gabon, Sierra Leonne, DRC-Rwanda, Central Africa Republic, Lac Chad Basin, and some thematic issues.

5/ The Theme of the year 2025 has been proposed to be: ‘‘Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations’’.

The reparations for transatlantic enslavement, colonialism and apartheid, as a Flagship Issue and Project of the Union. The Commission is to submit a strategic framework document for the implementation of the Accra Proclamation on the same.

6/ Appointments

Chair of the African Union for 2024
  • Chairperson of the African Union for 2024: Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani. Angola is likely to take over in 2025.
  • Champion of the institutional reform of the AU: President William Ruto of Kenya
  • Champion for local manufacturing of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical products, President Ruto from Kenya
  • Leader in Advancing the Cause of Justice and Payment of Reparations to Africans, enhancing advocacy for a common position on reparations in Africa, and forging a common front for Africa and the Diaspora at the global level: President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana
  • Mr. Wamkele Mene of South Africa was reappointed as Secretary General of the AfCFTA Secretariat for another four years.

10 new members of the Peace and Security Council for a term of 2 years:

1. Democratic Republic of Congo, Central Africa region

2. Equatorial Guinea, Central Africa region

3. Tanzania, Eastern Africa region

4. Uganda, Eastern Africa region

5. Egypt, Northern Africa region

6. Angola, Southern Africa region

7. Botswana, Southern Africa region

8. Côte d’Ivoire, Western Africa region

9. Sierra Leone, Western Africa, region

10. The Gambia, Western Africa region

7/ Calendar

2025 Summit of the AU

  • Executive Council, 12th and 13th February 2025;
  • 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly, 15th and 16th February 2025

Special Summit to consider the post-Malabo CAADP implementation plan: November 2024

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Watch this space for more updates on Pan-African & African Union matters. Your comments and suggestions are welcome on this site or directly to my email address: desire.assogbavi@assodesire.com  or assogbavi@me.com .

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African Union at the G20: Now What?

On 9 September 2023, I was having lunch with Professor Tim Murithi at Port Louis International Airport in Mauritius. We were returning from the inauguration meeting of the Brain Trust of African Union’s ECOSOCC, which both of us, along with other pan-African experts, have recently joined….then the news came out from the G20 Meeting happening in India: African Union, the premier continental organization consisting of all the 55 nations that make up Africa, has been admitted as a full member of the G20.

It is a great news, we both said… of course, we were expecting it to happen… My organization, the ONE Campaign, and other partners have been pushing for that over the last few years. Africa’s full membership will surely increase the continent’s visibility and influence on the global stage and provide a platform to advance the common interest of its people and the world.

African Union is now the second intergovernmental body, besides the European Union, to be a full permanent member of the G20 and the first body to join the group since it was formed in 1999. I am not sure if the body will be renamed G21, but the question I am trying to propose some answers to in this article is how the African Union would handle its participation in the Group of the major global economies and play a vital role in advancing the continent’s journey to inclusive and sustainable development to make it the Africa we want.

Later, in February 2024, the African Union Assembly finalized the modalities for the AU’s participation within the Group.
As South Africa gears up to take the reins of the G20, African countries must seize this opportunity to drive forward the continental development agenda and advocate for a more just and equitable world. South Africa should leverage its position within the G20 to advocate for fairer global governance and combat economic inequality.

About the G20

The G20 defines itself as the premier forum for international economic cooperation. It plays an important role in shaping and strengthening global architecture and governance on all major international economic issues. G20 members account for about 85% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 75% of the global trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. It has 19 countries and one international organization as follows: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Germany, Korea (Republic), Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, UK, USA and the European Union.

India held the G20 presidency from 1 December 2022 to 30 November 2023. Brazil currently holds the Presidency for 2024, and South Africa will have the Presidency for 2025.

Interestingly, three of the 20 largest economies in the world, including Spain, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, are not permanent members of the G20.

So far, the only African country in the G20 is South Africa.

The main objectives of the G20 are to shape and strengthen the global architecture and governance on major international economic issues, including trade, climate change, sustainable development, health, agriculture, energy, environment, tourism, and combating corruption, among others.

According to the Indian presidency, the specific objectives of the G20 are to:

• Promote policy coordination among its members and beyond to advance global economic stability and sustainable growth.

• Promote regulations that reduce risks and prevent future financial crises; and,

• Create a new international financial architecture.

It has been observed that every Presidency of the G20 identifies its priorities, beyond the specific objectives of the body.

To learn more about how the G20 works, click here.

(Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP) (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Africa at the Table, as part of the Solution to Global Issues

First, let us agree that the African Union is not joining the G20 to ask for more aid. The continent aims to contribute to resolving global issues on the table and to do business within a meaningful and mutually beneficial partnership. For this, Africa is bringing vital assets to the ingredients on the table.

Demography: Africa represents 1.4 billion people which is about 17% of the global population, most of which are young, intelligent, dynamic, and willing to take part in the development process. This population will rise to 25% by 2050. The continent has a vibrant workforce and is experiencing a surge in innovation and entrepreneurship, with startups and initiatives emerging in sectors ranging from technology to agriculture. By supporting and collaborating with African innovators, the global community can benefit from their transformative solutions.

Africa needs, however, to harness its demographic dividend by strategically investing in this youthful population in terms of health, education, skill development, and job creation.

Wealth and Natural Resources: Africa is one of the world’s richest geographical regions in terms of endowment with natural resources, with 60% of the world’s renewable energy assets and more than 30% of the minerals key to renewable and low-carbon technologies. Africa has the largest unused arable land, a heavy green energy potential, and other strategic critical materials. From its vast mineral deposits to fertile agricultural lands, the continent has much to offer. With proper management and sustainable practices, Africa’s resources can help address global challenges such as food security, water scarcity, and renewable energy.

Market Potential and Trade Area: The establishment of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the world’s largest market of 55 nations and 1.4 billion people with the prospect of a continental customs and economic union, is obviously a great asset for the world economy and prosperity.

How could the African Union be prepared to contribute effectively to the G20?

Our continental body should address important issues as it prepares to join the G20. These include its representation in the group’s statutory meetings and various working groups, setting continental common policy positions or consensus on the G20’s agenda, and matters to be discussed.  

African Union Representation in the G20

In February 2023, during its Heads of State annual Summit, the African Union decided that the current Chairperson, assisted by the Chairperson of the AU Commission, would represent the African Union in the G20 (Assembly/AU/Dec.845 – XXXVI).

However, being a full permanent member of the G20 goes beyond participating in the group’s statutory meetings. There is a need to explore options for how the African Union can be prepared at technical and political levels and constantly follow and participate in the various workstreams of the G20 for meaningful engagements.  

How would the annual President of the Union coordinate with the team of the Chairperson of the AU Commission and the AU Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) in preparing and participating in the various thematic working groups of the G20 as a permanent member?

The African Union is not a supra-national body.

Unlike certain supranational aspects of the European Union, the African Union is still a purely intergovernmental body with no supranational authority. Member states maintain their sovereignty and decision-making power, and the AU acts as a forum for coordination, cooperation, and consultation among its member states.

Legally speaking, the AU does not have the ability to make binding decisions or enact laws that supersede national legislation without the consent of its member states. That is why the African Union’s membership and participation in the G20 may not be as simple as it looks compared to the European Union. More reflection is then needed on how best the continental body could contribute to this global platform.

Modalities for the Participation of the African Union in the G20 and Preliminary Priorities as decided by the Assembly of the AU in February 2024

At the G20, AU aims to leverage Africa’s position in the world economy as well as contribute to meeting the emerging global challenges

Participation in the Leaders’ Summit:

  • The Chairperson of the African Union, assisted by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, will represent the African Union (previously decided)
  • The Chairperson of the Commission to propose positions to the Assembly to be advanced as African Common positions in the G20 Leaders’ Summits.
  • The Chairperson of the African Union, assisted by the Chairperson of the Commission to debrief the Assembly on the outcomes of the G20 Leaders’ Summits at the February sessions of the Assembly each year.

Participation in Ministerial meetings

  • The Chairperson of the African Union Executive Council, assisted by the Chairperson of the Commission to represent the African Union in the G20 Meetings of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs.
  • The Chairpersons of the AU Specialized Technical Committees, assisted by the respective Commissioners, to lead African Delegations to G20 sectoral Ministerial Meetings
  • The Chairperson of the Specialized Technical Committees (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning, and Integration, assisted by the Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, and Minerals to attend the meetings of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, assisted by the respective Commissioner(s);
  • The Ministerial Representatives to the G20 to propose draft African common positions through the Specialized Technical Committees for consideration by the Executive Council before it is advanced in the G20 Ministerial meetings and Leaders’ Summits

Sherpa and Sous Sherpa

  • The Chairperson of the African Union to appoint a Sherpa. As the AU G20 contact point, the Sherpa shall coordinate with the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the AU Member States on the positions to be advanced in the various G20 Ministerial, Task Forces and Working Group meetings to ensure that the African Union prepares common positions ahead of each G20 meeting and speaks with one voice in the G20 meetings;
  • The Chairperson of the Commission to appoint a Sous-Sherpa to: (a)Act as liaison between the Commission and the Chairperson of the Union; (b)Work with and Deputize the Sherpa; (c)Report to the Chairperson of the Union on G20 matters.

South Africa, the only current African permanent member of the G20 and the upcoming Chair for 2025 will share lessons of experience in the G20 with the African Union.

Africa’s preliminary priorities at the G20 will be the reform of the international financial architecture, debt restructuring, food security and agriculture, energy transition, trade and investments, and improving Africa’s credit rating to boost investment, health, and vaccine manufacturing.

Financing AU participation in the G20

African Development Bank (AfDB) and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) pledged to provide initial financing for the participation of the African Union in the G20.

The Role of South Africa and Special Invitees

As a permanent member of the G20 since 1999, South Africa could support the AU in better understanding the G20 process and dynamics in the early years of the Union’s participation as a permanent member. Other AU members and institutions, such as Egypt, Mauritius, Nigeria, and the AUDA-NEPAD, have also been regularly invited. The continental body should take advantage of their experience and knowledge as well.   

A Paramount Priority for the Continent: The Reform of the International Financial Architecture

The priority matter that the African Union can consider taking to the G20 table as soon as possible is the much-needed reform of current international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The international financial institutions created in 1945 after the Second World War are no longer fit to deal with the current global multiple and interlinked crises. They are increasingly at odds with the reality and needs of the world today.

In addition, the existing architecture has been unable to support the mobilization of stable and long-term resources needed by the continent to achieve its development agendas, forcing most countries to turn to private capital markets with unfair interest rates.  At the same time, the continent is robbed daily by Illicit Financial Flows amounting to nearly 90 billion USD per year.

Addressing this issue should be a top priority for the African Union as it begins the formal engagement with the G20, where international solidarity should prevail.

As South Africa gears up to take the reins of the G20, African countries must seize this opportunity to drive forward the continental development agenda and advocate for a more just and equitable world. South Africa should leverage its position within the G20 to advocate for fairer global governance and combat economic inequality.

This article has been updated on 9 September 2024

Your comments and suggestions are also welcome on this site or directly to my email address: Desire.Assogbavi@assodesire.com  or Assogbavi@me.com .

Watch this space for more updates on Pan-African & African Union matters.

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Youth employment in Africa through agriculture development & the cracking down of the Illicit Financial Flows: How can partners contribute?

Some time back, I was the guest of a podcast on President Biden’s Priorities for Africa by the Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), then hosted by Judd Devermont (currently Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for African Affairs at the White House).
My two main points are:
1/ Boost youth employment through agriculture development/modernization, especially #agrifood and,
2/Crack down Illicit financial flows representing more than $89 billion going out of Africa every year illegally.
You can listen to the podcast here.

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The Reform of the African Union and Citizens’ Participation

This is the summary of a presentation I made at the seminar on the African Union Reform co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies and the Government of Kenya in the margins of the African Union Mid-Year Coordination meeting with the Regional Economic Communities in Nairobi, Kenya, on 13th July 2023.

The fundamental reason for the transformation of the Organization of Afrian Unity (OAU) to the African Union (AU) in the years 2000s is to ensure that the continental body becomes a people-centered institution as opposed to what was known as a club of Heads of State.

One of the seven aspirations of the AU’s Agenda 2063 (aspiration # 6, precisely) is “to build an Africa whose development is people-driven and relies on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth.”

The inclusive economic development that Africa aspires to achieve requires a vibrant civil society, making the necessary contribution to continental efforts through participatory engagements in decision-making.

Active citizens are a fundamental prerequisite for an effective African Union.

At the country level, we know that Citizens’ engagement with their leaders improves the delivery of inclusive, accessible, and responsive public services, such as the provision of healthcare, safe water, quality education, decent jobs, etc.

Because of its closeness to the day-to-day life of the communities, Civil Society has an identity that is distinct from States. In conflict situations, civil society has the vocation to contribute to peace-building initiatives.

Civil society has shown its capacity to organize the collection, analysis, and evaluation of first-hand information, allowing the identification of the sources of potential tensions as well as emerging conflicts.

The characteristics of security issues the African Union addresses today radically differ from those of the previous decades. Today’s conflicts appear to be more complex than ever, and their nature obliges us to change how they resolve them.

While “Traditional” conflicts were well understood by diplomats and specialists in political science, addressing new conflicts adequately requires much more on-the-ground knowledge, new social and cultural analysis skills, the active involvement of communities and their leaders, links to vulnerable groups, and new ways of working.  Civil society organizations, most of the time, have unique capacities in those areas.

In the face of the many challenges Africa currently faces, boosting a people-driven development process has never been more urgent. It is the only means for sustainable development and change, which can only happen when African citizens are informed, empowered, and enabled to influence policies and practices and utilize improved mechanisms to hold leaders accountable.

The AU Agenda 2063 recognizes that people’s ownership, support, and mobilization are critical enablers to concretizing Africa’s aspirations.

So, for a prosperous and democratic society, state actors and a well-organized civil society should be seen as the two sides of the same coin because they complement each other.

Civil society is a reservoir of goodwill needed to accelerate national, regional, and continental development.

With all these realities in mind, the ongoing institutional reform of the AU, especially the review of the organs, should deliberately ensure that the new African Union and its organs give adequate space and resources for citizens’ participation at 3 levels:

  • Policymaking
  • Policy implementation
  • Accountability

We know that the African Union has created organs and mechanisms to encourage the contributions of citizens and their formations.

These include but are not limited to the following:

1/ ECOSOCC: The Economic Social and Cultural Council, an organ of the Union

2/ CIDO: The Citizens and Diaspora Organizations division of the AU Commission

3/ Provisions and frameworks organizing the contribution of citizens, their formations, and affected populations within the peace and security and governance frameworks of the Union.

Such provisions and frameworks include the Livingston Formula, the Maseru Conclusion, the African Governance Architecture, and the African Peace and Security Architecture.

4/ A mechanism for the participation of CSOs in the work of the Africa Commission for Human and Peoples’ Rights.

5/ A mechanism for the interaction of child-focus organizations with the African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child (ACERWC),

6/ The Pan Africa Parliament also aims to provide a platform for people’s representatives from the various member states to contribute to the African Union’s work. 

But, over the years, with all that I mentioned, Citizens’ space and participation have not been consistent. It remains informal, ad-hoc, and definitely not at the expected level recommended by the Constitutive Act of the AU.

Here are just a few examples,

1/ It has been difficult for CSOs in African Union Member States to know exactly what it takes to provide input to continental policy debate and get accreditation to do so.

2/ The yearly calendar of policy gatherings of the various organs of the AU is nowhere to be found unless you have a friend within the conference department or a member state representative, or embassy staff.

3/ Physical access to the premises of the AU Commission has been inconsistent and a challenge to CSOs, representatives, and even for those who have established Liaison offices to the Union or have signed an MoU with the Commission.

4/ …and overall observers’ access to AU Summit has been increasingly restricted

I am conscious of the fact that not all existing CSOs’ representatives can be invited to all meetings, but there should be a transparent procedure known by all…

You will agree with me in the conditions I have just described that it is impossible to tap into and take full advantage of the immense resource that CSOs offer for the Africa we want…

However, there are good reasons for us to believe that change and improvement of the current situation are possible and even on the way.

Today’s gathering for this policy debate, co-hosted by ISS and the Government of Kenya, is an example of the necessary interaction between states and non-state actors.

Early this week, hundreds of citizens of the continent and the diaspora gathered under the hospices of ECOSOCC, supported by the Government of Kenya, for policy discussions on various thematic as well as a Citizens’ Forum on Democracy and Digital Governance. I recommend that the Kenya delegation take the outcomes of these discussions to the AU policy space in Addis Ababa and champion them.

ECOSOCC’s New Approach

A critical positive trend that we are also witnessing is the new approach being taken by ECOSOCC with its new leadership over the last few years.

Such a progressive approach is visibly taking the organ back to its originally intended purpose, as a platform for African Civil Society Organizations, in all their variety to contribute to the shaping of the African we want, and no more as a gatekeeper or a filter for CSOs participation in the AU affairs, as it used to be the case since ECOSOCC has been launched.

This trend, already being appreciated by member states and the CSOs community within the continent, should be supported and institutionalized to be consistent and sustainable.

We also know that a harmonized mechanism for granting consultative and observer status to CSOs in Africa is being prepared to be submitted to the African Union policy organs for adoption soon.

This excellent move will clarify what it takes for a CSO to have a formal relationship with the African Union for interactions, participation, exchange, and knowledge transfer.

With a harmonized Mechanism, the AU, through ECOSOCC, could have and maintain a comprehensive database of CSOs from across the continent and the Diaspora working on the various programs and thematic of the AU. This will facilitate invitations and consultations to contribute to programs or to provide technical advice on the thematic areas CSOs are specialized in.

For this particular process, I would like to submit that such a centralized, general mechanism be as liberal as possible and that thematic departments and organs of the AU be the ones to define specific considerations or a set of rules that may govern their regular interactions with CSOs operating in their specific fields.

I would also like to submit that such a harmonized mechanism recognizes and makes room for the necessary flexibility that characterizes the nature of civil society, especially regarding humanitarian intervention, peacebuilding, and human security.

I would like to conclude my overall contribution by saying that only a reformed African Union that makes meaningful space for citizens’ participation and an agreed accountability mechanism can take us to the 2063 promised land.

I thank you.