My Reflections on our Journey Through History, Culture, and Resilience in Senegal.
The Open Society Foundations’ (OSF) Africa Tour kicked off with a vibrant and enlightening experience in Senegal, themed “Unveiling the Soul of Senegal: A Journey Through History, Culture, and Resilience.” This first stop provided profound insights and meaningful lessons that set a foundational tone for the following phases of our tour: Kenya, South Africa, and Namibia.
Senegal’s journey through political stability, cultural depth, youth engagement, gender equity, economic justice, and regional diplomacy offered invaluable lessons and strategic benchmarks as we proceed to the subsequent destinations.
Senegal’s democratic achievements are remarkable within the context of the regional political landscape. Amid widespread instability in the West African region, Senegal stands as a beacon of democratic resilience. The peaceful and constitutional transition of power in April 2024 to Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Africa’s youngest democratically elected president, marked a significant milestone. This victory underscores the strength of Senegal’s institutional structures, vibrant civil society, and the powerful role that collective civic action can play. As we head to Kenya, a nation grappling with its own democratic consolidation challenges, Senegal’s model of citizen engagement, transparency, and accountability served as an instructive reference point.
Cultural investment and artistic expression emerged clearly as pillars of democratic expression and social cohesion during our Senegalese visit. Under its first president, Léopold Sédar Senghor, Senegal institutionalized support for arts and culture as cornerstones of dialogue, democratic participation, and national identity. Notably, the Musée des Civilisations Noires that we visited provided us powerful insights into how arts can foster reconciliation, historical consciousness, and democratic resilience. These examples offered valuable insights for our forthcoming engagements in South Africa and Namibia; countries that have navigated complex histories of racial injustice and colonialism.
Senegal’s youth demonstrate exceptional agency and vigilance in preserving democratic gains, as evidenced by their active role in recent electoral processes and civic actions. In Senegal, young people and youth-led organizations have been at the forefront of protecting and revitalizing democratic processes. During the political tensions leading up to the 2024 elections, groups such as AAR Sunu Election mobilized extensively to defend constitutional term limits and ensure electoral integrity. Their grassroots organizing included voter education campaigns, election monitoring initiatives, and widespread use of digital platforms to counter disinformation and mobilize civic participation. Youth movements demonstrated exceptional courage in resisting authoritarian attempts to undermine democracy, building strong networks of solidarity across different sectors of society. Their relentless vigilance and ability to galvanize public opinion were instrumental in ensuring a peaceful transition of power, culminating in the historic election of Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
Beyond electoral moments, youth organizations like the Collectif des Universitaires pour la Démocratie (CUD) have worked to sustain democratic resilience by fostering a culture of critical thought, civic responsibility, and policy engagement. They organized forums, public dialogues, and advocacy campaigns to challenge impunity and demand reforms across education, governance, and human rights sectors. Importantly, young artists, rappers, and digital activists also played a significant role, using creative expression to critique power structures and inspire political consciousness among the broader population. The influential movement “Y’en a Marre” exemplify effective youth engagement. Founded in 2011 by rappers and journalists, Y’en a Marre mobilized mass protests against political stagnation and constitutional manipulation during former President Abdoulaye Wade’s tenure. They used music, art, and grassroots activism to demand political accountability and have remained a significant force in defending democratic principles.
The active, strategic participation of Senegalese youth offers a powerful model for other African nations, highlighting that the vibrancy and endurance of democracy depend not only on institutions but also on the everyday actions and commitments of an engaged younger generation.
Gender Equity and Women’s Political Representation: Our exploration of gender equity and women’s political participation at the Musée de la Femme Henriette Bathily in Dakar gave us significant insights. Despite a progressive legal framework, implementation challenges and persistent patriarchal norms in Senegal reflect common realities across Africa. Panel discussions emphasized practical support for women politicians, direct advocacy, and critical evaluations of international funding mechanisms for gender equity. The Senegalese experience underscores the necessity for targeted, substantive empowerment initiatives rather than merely symbolic actions.
Economic justice and governance emerged as critical themes throughout the Senegal leg of our tour. Senegal grapples with high levels of poverty, youth unemployment, inflation, and economic inequality; challenges exacerbated by recent global crises. Discussions notably addressed the equitable governance of natural resources, such as newly discovered oil and gas reserves. These dialogues provide crucial lessons for South Africa, where mineral wealth distribution remains a contentious issue, and Namibia, actively pursuing equitable resource management policies. Transparent governance, community involvement, and equity in resource management are essential to translating economic growth into tangible improvements in citizens’ lives.
Religion: Senegal stands as a remarkable example of interfaith harmony in Africa, with approximately 95% of its population identifying as Muslim, about 4% as Christian (primarily Roman Catholic), and the remainder practicing indigenous traditional beliefs. Despite this religious diversity, Senegal has cultivated a culture of peaceful coexistence rooted in mutual respect and the principle of laïcité (secularism) enshrined in its constitution since independence in 1960. Prominent Muslim brotherhoods such as the Mourides, Tidianes, and Layènes play significant social roles while promoting tolerance, and interfaith families are common, with shared celebrations between Muslims and Christians during major religious holidays. Figures like Abbé Alphonse Birame Ndour, a key leader in Senegal’s interreligious dialogue initiatives, illustrate how religious leaders actively foster national unity. Senegal’s unique model of religious coexistence offers critical lessons for other African nations grappling with sectarian tensions. Senegal’s strategy of fostering interfaith respect and secular inclusivity could be instructive for building lasting peace and democratic stability.
Regional Diplomacy and Mediation: Regionally, Senegal’s role in diplomacy and conflict mediation has grown notably, particularly within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the newly established Alliance of Sahelian States. Senegal has played an instrumental diplomatic role within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Since assuming office in April 2024, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has emerged as a vital bridge-builder, leading efforts on behalf of ECOWAS to re-establish dialogue with the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) countries. His mediation initiatives aim to preserve regional stability, foster reconciliation, and prevent further fragmentation within West Africa. This renewed emphasis on inclusive diplomacy underscores Senegal’s strategic leadership.
Historical Awareness and Reparative Justice. The importance of historical consciousness and reparative justice brightly emerged during our visit to Gorée Island. We walked through the haunting yet powerful corridors of Gorée Island, a sacred place that holds the memory of millions of lives affected by slavery. Standing at the Door of No Return, I was struck by the resilience of those who came before us, and the urgent need to keep their stories alive. Gorée is not just history, it is a call to conscience. A reminder that justice, remembrance, and healing must be part of our collective journey.
The Maison des Esclaves poignantly reminded us of the profound and enduring impact of historical injustices. Such initiatives to memorialize history and advocate for reparative justice resonate deeply with South Africa and Namibia, nations actively engaging with their own complex historical legacies of apartheid and colonial violence. Integrating memory, reconciliation, and reparative justice into OSF’s strategies across these destinations can support transformative healing and strengthen social cohesion. As we advocate for human rights democracy, lasting peace, accountability etc , let us center the voices of those silenced by history, and commit ourselves to building a future rooted in truth and dignity.
The Senegal stop provided OSF with strategic insights into sustainable democratic practices, cultural empowerment, active youth participation, substantive gender equity, economic justice, religious tolerance, regional cooperation, and historical awareness.
Our Namibia tour happened at a defining moment in the country’s history; just months after the election of President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, Namibia’s first female Head of State. This historic milestone offered a rich context for our engagements, providing us with great understandings of Namibia’s evolving democratic landscape, societal aspirations, and transformative potential.
Although the Open Society Foundations has yet to establish a permanent presence in Namibia, our learning tour significantly deepened our understanding, facilitated meaningful engagements across various sectors, and highlighted promising opportunities for future partnerships with both civil society and state actors.
The Promise and Paradox of Democratic Transition
Namibia stands at an important crossroads. The election of a female president and vice president has symbolized a profound shift, sparking renewed optimism, particularly among women and youth. However, our interactions revealed a prevalent concern: “We have a female president, but we remain with the same system.” SWAPO, Namibia’s ruling party since independence, faces a declining parliamentary majority, indicative of rising public discontent and heightened calls for structural reforms. The key challenge ahead is ensuring that leadership transitions are substantive rather than symbolic, driving tangible, impactful change in governance, socio-economic conditions, and justice frameworks.
Inclusive Dialogue and Reparative Justice
Our closing discussions, featuring a high-level panel including Vice President Lucia Witbooi, Members of the parliament, and prominent legal experts and civil society leaders, provided a profound exploration of Namibia’s negotiations with Germany concerning reparations for the 1904–1908 genocide. Civil society representatives passionately advocated for transparency, genuine participation, and inclusive negotiations, emphasizing that meaningful reparations require more than monetary compensation.
Forgiveness, Reconciliation, and Reparations
A central theme throughout our interactions was the complex interplay between forgiveness, reconciliation, and reparations. Vice President Witbooi drew on Rwanda’s experiences, advocating forgiveness as critical to healing national wounds. Yet, our own Brian Kagoro and other civil society advocates highlighted that forgiveness must follow genuine reparative actions and accountability measures. Brian notably argued for reparations as essential for “balancing the books,” requiring acknowledgment, restitution, and systemic change to prevent recurrence of past injustices.
Calls for Inclusive Participation
Our dialogues underscored the fundamental importance of inclusive participation in the reparations process. The critique of Namibia’s Joint Declaration with Germany underscored the need for meaningful involvement and agency of affected communities, ensuring transparent, inclusive processes and outcomes that genuinely reflect collective aspirations.
Tribal Identity: Strength, Resilience, and Risk
Throughout our engagements, the complexity of tribal identity in Namibia emerged consistently. While strong cultural affiliations to groups such as the Herero, Owambo, Nama, and Damara provide essential sources of identity and resilience, participants highlighted the challenges posed by tribal divisions. A particularly resonant observation was, “Tribe still determines what you get from the economy and who gets to speak.” The imperative, therefore, is integrating Namibia’s rich ethnic diversity into a cohesive national identity, addressing historical grievances without exacerbating existing inequalities or promoting exclusionary practices.
Youth Advocacy and Economic Justice
A critical highlight of our tour was the dynamic role played by Namibia’s youth in advocating for justice, dignity, and structural reform. Former MP Patience Masua eloquently outlined the frighting economic challenges facing Namibia’s younger generation, notably a youth unemployment rate exceeding 45%. Nevertheless, she identified hopeful initiatives such as tax incentives for youth-led enterprises, housing programs, and green energy projects. These initiatives underscore a vibrant, future-oriented vision among Namibian youth, who are determined to achieve systemic and intergenerational equity.
MP Utaara Mootu provided further insights, passionately articulating the emotional and historical resonance underlying young Namibians’ demands for justice. She emphasized that true reparative justice must include land reform, constitutional recognition, and socio-economic restructuring, ensuring that historically marginalized communities receive meaningful redress and opportunities for empowerment.
Katutura: History, Challenges, and Resilience
Our visit to Katutura, a historically marginalized settlement established during apartheid-era forced relocations, revealed Namibia’s ongoing struggles and resilient spirit. Guided by community experts, our exploration illuminated Katutura’s touching history of displacement, discrimination, and economic exclusion. Yet, despite these challenges, Katutura exemplifies vibrant community activism, where youth, women, and grassroots leaders drive transformative conversations around equity, justice, and political participation.
Community initiatives like Penduka (“wake up” in local languages) stood out as powerful examples of resilience, empowerment, and agency among women. Penduka fosters economic self-sufficiency and social empowerment, symbolizing Namibia’s grassroots capacity to address historical injustices through innovative community-driven initiatives.
Women’s Leadership: From Representation to Real Impact
Namibia’s current leadership structure is unprecedented: the president, vice president, speaker of the National Assembly, and numerous ministerial positions are occupied by women. This significant shift in representation has profoundly influenced societal perceptions, aspirations, and opportunities. A compelling anecdote shared by a participant highlighted how his daughter’s aspirations shifted dramatically from becoming a First Lady to aspiring to the presidency itself. This narrative change should not be superficial, it should represents a significant societal shift toward gender equality.
However, participants repeatedly stressed that representation alone is insufficient. True victory, they argued, lies in translating increased representation into tangible impacts, ensuring the safety, opportunity, and justice for all Namibians, particularly women and girls from rural and marginalized communities.
Namibia’s Role in International Reparative Justice
Namibia’s global engagement, particularly its stance on reparations and international justice, was thoroughly explored during our discussion. Former ministers of justice Yvonne Dausab and legal experts highlighted Namibia’s active involvement in advocating for reparative justice through international platforms such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the African Union. Discussions emphasized the necessity of strategic legal training and capacity building to equip Namibian lawyers and civil society actors for effective engagement in international forums. This emphasis underscores the importance of a legally rigorous, inclusive approach to reparative justice that aligns with global standards while addressing Namibia’s specific historical contexts.
Celebrating Women’s Leadership and Transformational Justice
Our high-level closing panel explicitly celebrated women’s leadership in shaping Namibia’s political landscape and advancing the reparations agenda. Leaders recognized the critical historical and contemporary contributions of women in advocating justice, reconciliation, and societal transformation. The discussions affirmed women’s integral roles as leaders in peacebuilding and social justice initiatives, further reinforcing the necessity of gender-sensitive approaches to reparative justice.
Moving Forward Together
Namibia today navigates a delicate balance between historical memory and future aspirations. The nation continues to grapple with the profound legacies of colonialism, genocide, apartheid and structural inequalities, yet remains animated by resilience, courageous leadership, and proactive youth engagement.
As visitors, learners, and potential partners, our delegation departs inspired by Namibia’s courage and committed to amplifying its voice internationally. We recognize our shared responsibility to support Namibia’s journey towards a just, equitable, and open society.
To the Land of the Brave: May the future you envision rise powerfully through truth, inclusivity, collective voice, and transformative justice.
This tour has not only deepened our appreciation of Namibia’s complex socio-political landscape but also strengthened our resolve to collaborate in meaningful and impactful ways, championing justice, equity, and systemic change alongside Namibia.
Politics, Economics, and Geopolitical Repositioning
“Amandla! Aweetu!” (“Power to the people!”).
This slogan resonating deeply through South Africa’s history echoed throughout our Open Society Foundation Team Learning Tour in Johannesburg this week. Over a few days of rich interaction with community leaders, political analysts, activists, and ordinary citizens, one thing became clear: the struggle for genuine freedom and dignity in South Africa is far from over.
South African Democracy at 30: Gains and Pains
South Africa reaches three decades of democracy, marked by the end of apartheid and the rise of the African National Congress (ANC). Yet, this period is not celebrated unanimously.
As we engaged with local experts, social activists and ordinary citizens this pressing question emerged repeatedly: “Can we truly say we are free today?” Alarmingly, many South Africans we encountered felt democracy’s dividends remain elusive, summarizing their experiences by stating, “30 years of democracy have been painful, paid for in blood.”
While the advent of democracy signaled hope and equity, many comrades cited the erosion of trust in public institutions as democracy’s core crisis. Corruption, nepotism, and government inefficiency have fostered deep-rooted cynicism. One of the political experts we met, pointed out that liberation movements in Southern Africa are witnessing dramatic declines in public support precisely because they failed to deliver on their democratic promises. South Africa is no exception, with the ANC’s electoral dominance notably declining in recent years.
From Chains to Change: Our Inspiring Journey at South Africa’s Constitutional Court
Our visit to South Africa’s Constitutional Court as part of our Learning Tour was deeply moving; a reminder of how far this country has journeyed. More than just a court of law, the Constitutional Court is a living testament to South Africa’s courageous transformation from the shadows of apartheid to the light of democracy.
Built on the grounds of a former prison where countless men and women were unjustly imprisoned for their political beliefs or simply because of their race, the Constitutional Court stands today as a powerful symbol of redemption and resilience. Its walls, crafted from the very red bricks that once enclosed prisoners, represent a profound act of reclaiming pain, transforming it into purpose, and embracing the lessons of history to shape a brighter future.
Holding our meetings at Constitution Hill reinforced our belief in justice; not merely as a principle to uphold, but as a profound human experience to embody. This space remains a beacon of hope, dignity, and strength, reminding us that true justice must not only be delivered; it must be felt, deeply and unambiguously, by every citizen.
Coalition Politics and New Agendas
Amid declining single-party dominance, South Africa is increasingly governed by coalitions. Experts we engaged with noted that coalitions, while turbulent, also present unique opportunities for the voices of marginalized communities and social movements to influence policy agendas.
Yet, despite this opportunity, coalitions are still dominated by elites. “Even in coalitions, governments are still governments of elites”: said one of the invited experts. For social movements to effectively influence policies, they must become key stakeholders rather than merely beneficiaries of political gestures.
South African Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Promises and Deepening Inequality
The economic realities we witnessed in South Africa underscore a troubling stagnation, sharply divided along racial and social lines. Today, over half of South Africans, more than 30 million people, live in poverty, struggling daily with food insecurity and inadequate housing. Youth unemployment escalated from 36.8% in 2014 to 45.5% in 2024, but this figure skyrockets to nearly 70% among black youth, who continue to bear the brunt of economic exclusion.
Townships like Phola in eMalahleni, Mpumalanga Province, are surrounded by mines exploitations and power plants, yet residents suffer regular power outages and water shortages. Local hospitals and clinics, often under-resourced and overcrowded, fail to adequately serve communities battling chronic illnesses caused by pollution and poor sanitation.
During our visit to coal-affected communities in Mpumalanga, residents expressed deep concerns regarding government’s proposed “just energy transition.” Community members expressed fears over employment instability. Coal mining currently sustains thousands of jobs in the region; however, transitioning to renewable sectors such as solar energy might drastically reduce available employment. Residents highlighted specific anxieties about job numbers, noting that while mines employ large workforces, proposed solar projects might offer only a handful of positions. This stark contrast underscores their apprehension about economic security and stability.
Additionally, communities raised significant issues around engagement and information-sharing. They felt largely excluded from discussions shaping their future, with critical details about the energy transition rarely reaching beyond small groups. The harsh realities were voiced clearly by a young leader in Phola who sharply criticized plans for a transition from coal to hydrogen energy. He described the proposed “just transition” as “a scam,” arguing passionately that such policies exclude local communities, who fear even higher levels of unemployment and deeper poverty.
Community skepticism was fueled not by resistance to scientific change but by a historical mistrust rooted in persistent structural injustices and exploitation. Residents emphasized that meaningful participation, genuine transparency, and clear communication from authorities are crucial for any transition to be truly “just” and inclusive.
Progress Amidst Inequality: Foundations of South Africa’s Post-Apartheid Development
Despite significant ongoing challenges, South Africa has made notable strides in economic and social development since the end of apartheid. The mining sector, historically pivotal, laid the foundations for the country’s modern economy, facilitating important regional economic linkages through remittances and industrial supply chains. Revenue generated from mining and related industries has enabled substantial public investments, notably in social protection programs such as social grants, which support millions of vulnerable South Africans. Additionally, progress has been made in expanding basic infrastructure, improving access to health services, education, water, and electricity for large segments of the population previously excluded from such essential services. Although these systems currently face considerable strain, their establishment represents meaningful advancements towards social equity and economic inclusivity.
Supporting Social Movements: The Power of People
Social movements represent the real heartbeat of South Africa’s democratic potential. Organizations such as MACUA (Mining Affected Communities United in Action), a nationwide radical network, highlight this power strongly. MACUA is driving grassroots resistance to exploitation by mining corporations, challenging corruption, and pushing for accountability in community consultations.
Our discussions with MACUA representatives stressed the importance of authentic partnerships with social movements. As articulated by activist leaders: “We want partners to walk side by side with us, not ahead of us.”
They further urge partner to:
Invest in building community capacity to advocate autonomously for their rights.
Facilitate platforms where marginalized community voices inform policy decisions, especially regarding environmental justice and economic transitions.
Their powerful stance reflects a broader desire for autonomy, dignity, and effective participation in decision-making processes.
Land, Justice, and Economic Reform: Reclaiming Dignity
One of our resource persons, brought our attention to the enduring challenge of land justice; calling landlessness an engineered crisis born of centuries of settler colonialism. The prolonged legacy sees up to 72% land ownership still concentrated within a small white minority, causing indignity for millions.
The absence of meaningful economic reform further entrenches inequality. South Africa, once heavily reliant on mining, has struggled to diversify and democratize its economic base. Advocates demand comprehensive policies geared toward economic redistribution and genuine transformation, insisting that “Land reform has become land management; what we need is land justice.”
The way Forward: Inclusive Prosperity
Our learning tour crystallized a critical realization: South Africa is at a crossroads. Coalition politics, economic diversification, just energy transitions, and geopolitical repositioning must be leveraged to genuinely include marginalized communities. Unity governance cannot be superficial; it must empower communities, enabling them to reclaim their agency and dignity.
The journey towards genuine democracy and sustainable development in South Africa continues. As we concluded our visit, reflecting on diverse narratives shared with us, it became clear that South Africa’s future rests not only in policy frameworks or electoral politics but fundamentally in the strength and resilience of its people and their persistent struggle for a truly inclusive, just, and prosperous society.
Amandla! Aweetu! Power indeed belongs to the people.
As I conclude my learning visit to Kenya for the Ideas Festival, I leave inspired, challenged, and more determined than ever. Over two powerful days, I engaged with young people from various sectors, local experts, community leaders, and grassroots advocates , all united in their desire to tackle the deep and complex crises shaping their country and the African continent in general.
The Ideas Festival was sponsored by the Open Society Foundations and co-organised with partners, mostly youth organizations in Kenya.
From these vibrant conversations, one truth stood out: Africa’s future depends for a large part on its youth, their power, their creativity, and their resilience.
A Call to Reimagine Africa
In every session and exchange, the message was clear: the time for lamentation is over, the future must be claimed, it will not be given.
The festival was more than an event; it was a movement. One that places young people at the center of Africa’s response to the ongoing polycrisis, a convergence of economic instability, civic erosion, social inequality, and environmental challenges.
Rather than treating youth innovation as a distraction, we must embrace it as a catalyst for justice, economic development, and democratic accountability.
Throughout the festival, three guiding goals anchored our conversations:
Collaboration
Engagement
Shared Solidarity
Discussions highlighted some of the most pressing issues facing Kenya and the wider continent:
Economic hardship fueled by debt, poor policies, and corruption
Youth exclusion from political leadership and decision-making.
Rampant corruption: public resources are plundered while citizens suffer.
Shrinking civic space and rising police brutality, especially targeting the youth.
Public distrust in institutions and weak policy implementation.
Inequitable access to technology, education, and economic opportunity.
These challenges demand urgent, coordinated responses, not tomorrow, but today.
Youth Power in Action
Kenya’s youth are not waiting for permission to lead change. One standout example was the recent youth-led protests that successfully reversed a controversial tax bill. This was a vivid demonstration of civic engagement and people power in action.
Across the country, young people are using technology, art, and collective action to demand accountability, amplify marginalised voices, and push for change. They are innovating not only in the tech space but also in reimagining advocacy and governance.
And yet, we must go further. There’s a critical need to:
Ensure equitable access to technology and innovation.
Integrate AI into education so young people are not left behind.
Build digital and civic infrastructure that reflects African realities.
Strengthen inter-African connectivity, not just internationally, but within the continent itself.
“Africa must learn to play the long game, building systems that serve generations, not just political cycles“
7 Ideas to Address the African Polycrisis
From these dialogues I retained 7 key areas where urgent, transformative action is needed:
1. Political and Civic Inclusion
Dismantle systemic barriers to youth leadership.
Promote civic education and access to digital participation tools.
End the myth that young people lack experience.
2. Economic Justice & Reform
Push for inclusive, redistributive economic policies.
Demand social accountability in budgeting and public finance.
Advocate for debt justice and fair economic models.
3. Fighting Corruption
Support whistleblower protections and transparent information-sharing platforms
Strengthen regional anti-corruption frameworks.
Call for a Pan-African debt audit and accountability mechanism.
4. Innovation to service development
Fund and elevate youth-led solutions grounded in local contexts.
Move away from copy-paste Western models in favor of culturally-rooted innovation.
5. Intergenerational Solidarity
Encourage mentorship between senior leaders and youth.
Document and share knowledge to build lasting leadership structures.
6. Funding the Change
Rethink funding models to include solidarity economies, regional funds, and domestic resource mobilization rooted in integrity.
7- Deliberately invest in industrialization
Avoid over-reliant on raw commodity exports. Industrialization will help diversify economies by building value chains, reducing vulnerability to global price shocks
Strengthening Intra-African Trade. Make the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) at play
A industrial base fuels research, development, and tech transfer, key to building Africa’s competitiveness in the global economy.
In conclusion
The discussions in Kenya reminded me of what’s possible when we listen to young people, not as a demographic box to check, but as co-creators of the continent’s future. They are not just tomorrow’s leaders; they are today’s disruptors, builders, and visionaries.
My 7-Point Forecasts and Analysis of the Continent’s Political, Social, and Economic Landscapes.
We have just entered 2025! As we move into the mid-2020s, several indicators suggest that Africa is on the verge of a transformative era, provided the continent is effectively managed and stakeholders make the right choices. However, the year 2025—and likely the years to follow—also presents a range of challenges and uncertainties.
As I always do at the beginning of each year, I would like to share some reflections on the major opportunities and challenges our continent, its people, and institutions may face in 2025 and beyond. I will also share key upcoming/influencing moments to prepare for.
Inequality, conflicts and insecurity, youth and unemployment, migration, debt, development financing, electoral democracy, civic space, free movement of people, China, the BRICS, the new Trump presidency, etc. will occupy the policy and political debates and the daily life of Africans. Africans will expect much from the African Union with its new leadership and its so-called improved structure for a faster implementation of the Agenda 2063. Still, the regional economic communities will have increased responsibilities as they continue their difficult discussion on their scope of intervention, subsidiarity, and complementarity with the continental body.
With its 54 countries (55 AU member states) rich in diversity, culture, and resources, the continent will be playing an increasingly pivotal role in the global landscape.
Politically, Africa will continue witnessing waves of movements and civic engagements, mostly by young people demanding reforms, accountability, better governance, and better life conditions. In many countries, leaders will continue struggling to navigate pressing domestic demands and international pressures.
Socially, with a population expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2025, the youth bulge presents both opportunities and challenges. Employment will be a critical area of focus as young people demand opportunities to fulfill their potential. Additionally, issues related to social justice and human rights will continue to resonate.
Economically, Africa will need to speed on capitalizing on its immense potential to drive growth and innovation. The continent is rich in the most needed natural resources today. The deployment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a significant step towards economic integration and collaboration. 2025 may bring more progress in implementing the AfCFTA as African nations understand the importance of diversifying their economies and reducing dependency on external markets.
In 2025, African countries will enhance green mineral processing fueled by the aspirations to maximize the benefits of the extractive industries and leverage robust renewable energy resources. Mineral-rich countries will seek new partnerships to advance their value-addition objectives. This trend needs to be supported.
Given the ongoing global geopolitical trends, African countries will likely enhance their positions and secure more representation in global platforms, with the South African presidency of the G20, the African Union’s full membership of the group, as well as the inclusion of Ethiopia and Egypt in the BRICS.
Tensions between France and Francophone African countries that started with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso will likely escalate as more francophone countries reassess their historical ties with the former colonial power. As global power dynamics evolve, many Francophone African countries are increasingly looking toward new partners beyond France, including China, Russia, and other emerging economies seeking alternative pathways for development, trade, and security, leading to a gradual disillusionment with France as the primary partner.
Pressed by various actors, South Africa’s G20 Presidency launched a Cost of Capital Commission to investigate factors hindering low- and middle-income countries from accessing affordable capital. South Africa’s presidency presents a unique opportunity to enhance the continent’s development priorities on the global stage. The debt crisis in developing countries has escalated to critical levels. In Africa, public debt soared by 240% between 2008 and 2022, resulting in many nations allocating more resources to debt interest payments than to healthcare. This scenario hampers their capacity to invest in sustainable development and climate resilience.
By examining the trends, challenges, and opportunities that lie ahead, my aim in sharing these analyses at the beginning of the years has always been to provide a roadmap for policymakers, CSOs, philanthropies, businesses, and other stakeholders to navigate the complexities of Africa’s evolving landscape.
1/ Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty
Despite some economic growth and impressive resilience, Africa’s structural transformation will likely still be inconsistent in 2025.
According to the African Development Bank, growth in Africa is expected to increase only to around 4.3 percent in 2025. But given that economic growth does not automatically and immediately impact poverty reduction, the continent’s most challenging task is to ensure that the products of growth are distributed fairly and that they are no longer used to widen the gap between rich and poor, knowing that this is an important source of conflict.
Africa now has good reasons to invest in modernized agriculture, encourage and sustain productivity, and, of course, increase cultivable lands. This will have the threefold advantage of meeting the food needs of our people, creating jobs, and diversifying the economy. It will also promote regional trade among African countries, taking all the advantages from the AfCFTA.
Funding challenges will remain as African governments continue to face financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and looming debt repayments. To adapt to these challenges, in addition to the urgent need to reform the Global Financial Architecture, African countries should deploy internal structural reforms to diversify funding sources and their economies. The fight against illicit financial flows (IFF) should be intensified, as progress here will catalyze more fiscal space for governments.
Trade/AGOA: As the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its expiration in September 2025, the uncertainty regarding its renewal presents significant challenges for investment in key sectors like textiles, agriculture, and the automotive industry. AGOA has played a crucial role in facilitating trade and economic development between the United States and eligible sub-Saharan African countries by providing duty-free access to U.S. markets for a range of goods. However, as negotiations around its renewal progress, it is essential for the continent to secure a better deal. So, should AGOA renewal be placed on the agenda, the African side should advocate for a comprehensive review and enhancement of the agreement to ensure its effectiveness in the current landscape, particularly in light of the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Here are key elements to consider:
Alignment of Trade Policy, including harmonizing regulations and standards across the participating countries to facilitate smoother trade flows between U.S. and African markets
Regional Value Chains to promote the development of regional value chains in Africa, allowing countries to collaborate on producing goods that meet AGOA requirements while leveraging the strengths and resources of multiple countries within the AfCFTA framework.
Specific Support for SMEs and Startups: Both AGOA and AfCFTA seek to foster inclusive economic growth, and reforms could include dedicated support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Creating programs that assist SMEs in meeting export standards and accessing financing would bolster their capabilities to participate in global trade.
Trade Facilitation Initiatives: Integrating trade facilitation measures from AfCFTA into AGOA can streamline customs procedures and reduce trade barriers. This could include the adoption of technology in customs operations and cross-border trade facilitation measures that are consistent with AfCFTA protocols. Revisions to AGOA could also encourage partnerships between U.S. firms and African businesses participating in AfCFTA. Such collaborations can drive investment, innovation, and technology transfer, ultimately benefiting both economies.
2/ African Union Theme of 2025: “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations”
Reparations, encompassing reparatory justice for historical crimes and mass atrocities committed against Africans and people of African descent, have consistently been integral to the full decolonization process advocated by the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) and now the African Union (AU) since its establishment in 1963. Over the past three decades, the African Union has made numerous decisions and supported initiatives aimed at championing justice and advocating for reparations to Africans. It has also focused on the restitution of cultural artifacts, relics, and heritage that were pillaged during colonization and enslavement, working toward returning these items to the African countries from which they were taken. The Assembly of the Union decided that the theme of the Year for 2025 will be ‘‘Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.’’. Leaders have also designated the reparations for transatlantic enslavement, colonialism, and apartheid as a Flagship Issue and Project of the Union.
To enhance advocacy for an African common position on reparations and forge a united front on reparations for Global Africa, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana was appointed as the African Union Leader on Advancing the Cause of Justice and Payment of Reparations to Africans. This appointment may be transferred to the new president of Ghana, John Mahama.
The upcoming AU Summit in February 2025 will likely adopt a roadmap for implementing the theme on the continent and in the diaspora.
3/ Human Rights, Governance and Electoral Democracy: Unfinished Business
Liberties and freedoms, civic and democratic space, justice, and the protection of civilians are still in trouble on the continent, mostly because regional and continental institutions remain silent.
Africa must also find a way out of the vicious circle of election credibility and the needed political alternation in power. Without this, our continent will continue its progressive descent into hell, thus undermining any prospect of economic development.
Change at the helm of power is a crucial aspect of the democratic game, particularly in contexts where institutions remain weak, and the electoral system is susceptible to manipulation. We need to keep discussing the issue of limiting presidential terms, as this is often the only effective way to remove leaders who persistently cling to power in the context of flawed elections. Currently, only a handful of African countries exemplify this democratic principle, including Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, and South Africa.
4/The African Union: A New Start?
The current leadership of the African Union Commission will be largely renewed during the February 2025 Summit. The current Chairperson, Moussa Faki from Chad, the Deputy Chairperson, Dr. Monique Nsanzabaganwa from Rwanda, and most of the commissioners should hand over power to newly elected officials for a four-year term.
In addition, Angolan President João Lourenço is likely to be appointed Chairperson of the AU for 2025 to replace the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Ghazouani.
Angolan diplomacy, historically engaged in resolving continental conflicts, particularly in the Central African Republic and the Great Lakes region, has a golden opportunity to impact the continent.
President João Lourenço has several advantages. First, his role as a mediator between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, to help end the conflict between the two neighboring countries provides him with experience and credibility. Second, his ability to maintain good relations with global powers—such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union—as well as with regional leaders, including India, Brazil, and South Africa, is essential for ensuring that Africa is given a greater presence in international forums.
5/ Peace and Security:
Peace and security remain a serious prerequisite for the continent’s development and progress and the well-being of its people.
Africa has not made enough progress in this area in recent years. In many cases, such as in Sudan, our institutions have not acted seriously on early warning signs that were quite visible. What our regional institutions need are courage and the political will to cut with old methods. For example, the leadership of the African Union Commission must be able to speak out loudly whenever national leaders are violating our shared values and challenge them. That is why we need strong and audible leaders at the AU Commission.
The current state of conflict on the African continent is marked by complex and interlinked dynamics. Major conflict situations are interconnected with sub-national issues across the five geographical regions, resulting in conflicts that are either spreading into new areas, involving an increasing number of actors, witnessing a rise in fatalities, or deteriorating overall due to the escalation of their root causes.
Regional crises will continue impeding development efforts. Wars, armed conflicts, and extreme weather conditions have forced millions to flee their homes.
As reported by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), approximately 35 million Africans were living as refugees or displaced persons within their own countries at the end of 2024.
Additionally, the convergence of global megatrends such as climate change, energy transition, and migration intensifies the already intricate conflict landscape in Africa. Climate change poses a significant threat to the continent, manifesting in rising temperatures, altered weather patterns, and environmental degradation. These challenges jeopardize agricultural productivity and food security while exacerbating existing regional vulnerabilities.
The ongoing shift toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources offers both potential benefits and challenges for Africa. While this transition can help reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change, it necessitates considerable investment and infrastructure development. The lack of reliable energy access further deepens inequalities and can lead to social unrest.
At present, each region of Africa faces a distinct combination of these challenges, greatly influencing the continent’s conflict-related security landscape in unique ways.
Major Conflicts & Risky Situations to Watch Closely in Africa
In 2025, Africa will still have to manage the following hot spots:
Sudan: Sudan continues to face internal conflicts and political instability. I hoped that Sudan’s civil war would come to an end in 2024. Unfortunately, international mediation efforts have not succeeded. With ongoing support from foreign backers, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have resumed intense fighting in Khartoum, Al Jazirah State, and around Al Fashir in Darfur. In December, the Sudanese government accused Chad of having authorized the firing of Emirati drones from its soil and towards Sudan. The army, which is fighting the rebels of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemetti, now believes that N’Djamena is, through an alliance with the United Arab Emirates, directly engaged against it in the civil war, and in particular in the Darfur region. Looking ahead to 2025, international mediation efforts will advance little unless the current stalemate is resolved.
Sahel Region: Over the last decade, the region has been shaken by extremist uprisings and military coups. Three Sahelian nations, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, are now ruled by military leaders who have taken power by force on the pledge of providing more security to citizens. The Security crisis is complex, and the situation is worsening with record numbers of attacks and civilians killed both by Islamic fighters and government forces.
Ethiopia: Ethiopia has been grappling with various conflicts, notably the conflict in the Tigray region, where fighting between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and government forces has led to a humanitarian crisis, including mass displacement and reports of human rights abuses. Ethnic tensions and unresolved grievances in other parts of the country also contribute to the ongoing conflict.
DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo’s complex and long-standing conflict situation is a pending concern for the continent’s stability. Various armed conflicts, including clashes between rebel groups, inter-communal violence, and attacks by armed militias, have plagued the country. The conflicts are often fueled by competition over natural resources, such as minerals, leading to violence and instability in the region. The eastern part of the DRC, particularly in the provinces of Kivu, continues to be a hotspot for violence in the fight between the government and the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23. This is leading to widespread casualty and displacement of civilians, human rights abuses, and a humanitarian crisis.
Ethiopia and Egypt: Their relationship has been strained since 2011 when Ethiopia started building and filling the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a project that Egypt sees as a significant risk to its water and food security. The situation worsened further as Egypt strengthened its relationship with Ethiopia’s competitor, Somalia. In addition to sending troops, weaponry, and ammunition to Somalia, Egypt plans to conduct joint military exercises with the country. Egypt’s warming relationship with Somalia has raised concerns in Addis Ababa, as Ethiopia disagrees with Mogadishu over a maritime agreement that Ethiopia recently reached with Somaliland.
Silencing the Guns by 2030: Beyond the Slogan: Unfortunately, this campaign, with an initial deadline set for 2020 and then moved to 2030, remains a slogan without serious action to realize it by tackling the root causes of the conflicts.
Efforts to silence the guns must extend beyond rhetoric; it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity of African institutions to proactively prevent conflicts in a more comprehensive and timely manner rather than relying solely on reactive conflict resolution strategies.
Conflicts across the continent emerge from various structural vulnerabilities, including environmental challenges, competition for access to and the illegal extraction of natural resources, social unrest driven by poor and unaccountable governance, the proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons, and the rise of religious radicalization.
6/Prioritizing Socioeconomic Development Over Military Solutions
Achieving sustainable peace in Africa necessitates addressing the root causes of conflicts, which are frequently tied to poverty, inequality, limited access to education, and social injustices. By prioritizing socio-economic development rather than military solutions, African countries can create a foundation for enduring peace and prosperity for their citizens. It is essential to invest in sectors capable of driving economic growth and generating opportunities for the youth. The continent can establish an environment conducive to long-term stability and prosperity by directing resources toward these areas and implementing supportive policies.
Agriculture, the backbone of many African economies, offers significant potential for stimulating economic growth and creating employment opportunities for young people. With its vast arable land and an expanding population, Africa can harness agriculture to enhance food security, increase job prospects, and foster sustainable development. By investing in modern farming techniques, expanding market access, and supporting smallholder farmers, the continent can unlock the full potential of its agricultural sector and empower youth in rural communities.
Adding Value to Africa’s Strategic Critical Mineral Resources
Many conflicts on the continent are driven by the exploitation of natural resources. Therefore, African nations must prioritize taking control of and adding value to these vital resources. The strategic minerals in Africa—such as gold, diamonds, cobalt, platinum, and rare earth elements—are crucial for modern industries, including technology, green energy, and infrastructure. However, the extraction and trade of these resources have frequently been plagued by corruption and exploitation, resulting in instability and human suffering in various regions. African countries must assert their sovereignty over their mineral resources to disrupt this cycle of conflict and foster sustainable peace. By establishing transparent and accountable governance systems, countries can prevent the illicit exploitation of their minerals and ensure equitable distribution of benefits among their citizens. This approach will not only address the root causes of conflicts but also promote economic development and social advancement.
Pan-African institutions must work together to enhance understanding of the challenges within the mining sector and align with the African Mining Vision (AMV) objectives. Accelerating research and data collection to identify the key obstacles hindering the implementation of the AMV is also important. The continent must invest in building the capacity of stakeholders in the mining sector to tackle these challenges effectively and encourage collaboration among industry participants, government agencies, and civil society to develop innovative solutions for sustainable mining growth.
National governments should be empowered to implement policies encouraging value addition to mineral and agricultural products.
7/Africa and the Rest of the World
Africa has everything to gain by continuing to diversify its economic partners. The spectacular positioning of China and other new partners in Africa has openly changed the balance of power with traditional partners and reoriented the African economy and development process. But the continent must keep its eyes wide open. Africa’s partnerships (old and new) must contribute to the realization of our agendas 2030 and 2063, and we must ensure that social, human rights and equity standards are absolutely respected in the pursuit of these partnerships. Non-state actors have a major watchdog role to play here.
I do not anticipate a significant emphasis on Africa policy from the incoming Trump administration. However, the United States cannot afford to overlook Africa, as the continent is at a critical juncture that presents numerous opportunities for both economic and diplomatic engagement. With a population approaching 1.5 billion and an economy that has shown resilience amid global challenges, Africa is emerging as a key player on the world stage.
Key Moments in 2025 (This section will be updated as new events are planned)
African Union Summit & election of new AU leadership: 12-16 February 2025
50th Anniversary of ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States will celebrate its fiftieth anniversary in May 2025, at a moment when three founding members—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—announced their withdrawal from the organization in January 2023. They have declared their decision to be irrevocable, despite attempts at mediation, and have subsequently established a new entity known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Their official withdrawal from ECOWAS is set to take effect on January 29, 2025, in accordance with the organization’s regulations. The 50th anniversary of ECOWAS offers an opportunity to rethink and improve the mandates and working methods of the subregional body.
The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development will be held in Seville, Spain, from 30 June to 3 July 2025. The conference will address new and emerging issues and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals and support reform of the international financial architecture.
Elections: Unlike 2024, 2025 is expected to be more stable, with fewer major elections, mostly in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tanzania, along with the promised end of transition in Gabon and Guinea. Here is the election calendar for 2025 by EISA. Further analysis of Africa’s upcoming elections can be found here.
Artificial Intelligence Summit in Kigali: On April 3 and 4, 2025, Rwanda will host the first Global AI Summit in Africa in Kigali. This event is organized by the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Rwanda and the World Economic Forum. With the belief that AI could contribute $2.9 trillion to the African economy by 2030, the summit aims to explore economic opportunities for the African workforce. It will bring together global leaders, government ministers, CEOs, civil society representatives, startups, investors, and international organizations to shape Africa’s role in the global AI economy.
COP, Women’s Rights: 2025 will also mark the 10th anniversary of the COP21 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Goals and the 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action on Women’s Rights.
Il y a une demande croissante et une urgence pour améliorer l’efficacité et la capacité des Nations Unies à maintenir la paix et la sécurité internationales. La configuration actuelle du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU ne reflète pas les réalités géopolitiques d’aujourd’hui. Pour l’Afrique, en particulier, un continent de 1,4 milliard de personnes, avoir des sièges permanents à part entière au CSNU ne vise pas seulement à corriger une injustice historique, mais c’est aussi une question de légitimité et de crédibilité du Conseil.
Les États-Unis viennent d’annoncer leur soutien à la création de deux sièges permanents pour les États africains au Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies, mais ils ont exclu l’extension des Droits de Veto aux nouveaux membres permanents.
L’Afrique accepterait-elle cette offre ?
La position commune actuelle de l’Afrique, connue sous le nom de “Consensus d’Ezulwini“, appelle à deux sièges permanents avec toutes les prérogatives et privilèges de la qualité de membre permanent, y compris le droit de veto, et à cinq sièges non permanents.
Le Droit de Veto a historiquement entravé l’efficacité et l’équité du Conseil dans le traitement des questions de paix et de sécurité internationales. L’Afrique est donc, en principe, favorable à son abolition pour renforcer la fonctionnalité du Conseil. Cependant, si les États membres choisissent de maintenir le Veto, il devrait être étendu à tous les nouveaux membres permanents pour des raisons de justice et d’équité. La réforme du Conseil de sécurité devrait alors envisager soit l’absence du Veto pour tous, soit un Veto pour chaque membre permanent.
Il est donc peu probable que le continent accepte la proposition des États-Unis pour deux sièges permanents sans Droits de Veto. Dans le contexte actuel, une adhésion permanente des pays africains au Conseil sans Droit de Veto serait inutile et sans effet. Cela ressemblerait plutôt à un statut de “membres permanents de deuxième classe”. Certains analystes sur le continent le qualifient de statut ” d’observateurs permanents” au Conseil.
Quels pays peuvent représenter l’Afrique au Conseil de Sécurité ?
Malgré le fait que le Consensus d’Ezulwini stipule que l’Union africaine devrait être chargée de sélectionner les représentants de l’Afrique au Conseil, le continent n’a jusqu’à présent pas réussi à établir les critères de choix des deux candidats africains pour les sièges permanents parmi ses 55 États membres.
Les pays africains doivent s’engager dans un dialogue constructif et une collaboration pour établir des objectifs et critères communs pour le choix des représentants qui serviront au mieux les intérêts du continent.
Il serait important de prendre en compte des facteurs tels que la capacité, l’importance géopolitique, l’expérience diplomatique, la représentation régionale, l’engagement à respecter le droit international et les droits de l’homme, et la capacité à jouer efficacement dans ce système global complexe.
Devrait-on pousser les pays avec de vastes populations et/ou de grandes économies et capacités diplomatiques, comme le Nigeria, l’Égypte, l’Algerie, le Maroc, l’Éthiopie ou l’Afrique du Sud ? Devrait-on réserver un siège pour l’organe continental, l’Union africaine ? Sur ce dernier point, la difficulté sera que l’Union africaine est encore un organe purement intergouvernemental sans autorité supranational. Les États membres conservant leur souveraineté entière et leur pouvoir de décision, et l’UA agit uniquement comme un forum de coordination, de coopération et de consultation entre ses États membres. Le continent a un sérieux travail à faire à ce sujet.
Redevabilité
En délibérant sur sa représentation au CSNU, l’Union africaine doit également envisager de mettre en place un mécanisme de redevabilité pour ses représentants au Conseil de Sécurité . Nous savons comment les jeux de pouvoir, l’influence politique et la pression peuvent influencer les décisions et les votes aux Nations Unies. L’histoire récente nous rappelle qu’en 2011, les trois membres africains non permanents du Conseil de sécurité (Gabon, Nigeria, Afrique du Sud) ont soutenu la Résolution 1973 du CSNU, autorisant les actions militaires de l’OTAN en Libye, malgré les efforts continus de l’Union africaine pour trouver une solution pacifique à la crise. La résolution a été présentée par la France, le Royaume-Uni et le Liban.
Modifier la Charte des Nations Unies
Une modification de la Charte des Nations Unies serait nécessaire pour changer la composition du Conseil. L’article 108 de la Charte des Nations Unies dispose qu’une modification nécessite le soutien de tous les cinq membres permanents (P5) et la majorité des deux tiers des États membres de l’ONU à l’Assemblée générale. Ce ne sera certainement pas un processus facile.
Le prochain Sommet de l’Avenir, qui se tiendra en marge de l’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies, crée une opportunité supplémentaire pour corriger la gouvernance mondiale et de revitaliser le système multilatéral, y compris une réforme équitable du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU qui prend en compte le besoin urgent de le rendre plus représentatif, inclusif, transparent, efficace, démocratique, crédible et responsable.
There is a growing demand and an urgency to increase the effectiveness of the United Nations’ abilities to maintain international peace and security. The current configuration of the UN Security Council does not reflect today’s geopolitical realities. For Africa, in particular, a continent of 1.4 billion people, having full permanent seats at the UNSC is not just about redressing a historical injustice. It is also a matter of legitimacy and credibility of the Council.
The current African common position, known as the “Ezulwini Consensus,” calls for two permanent seats with all the prerogatives and privileges of permanent membership, including the right of Veto, and five non-permanent seats.
The veto power has historically hindered the Council’s effectiveness and fairness in addressing global peace and security issues, so Africa is, in principle, in favor of its abolition to enhance the Council’s functionality. However, if member states opt to maintain the veto power, it should be extended to all new permanent members for the sake of fairness and justice. The UNSC reform should then consider either no Veto at all or a Veto for every permanent member.
So, it is unlikely that the continent will accept the United States proposal for two permanent seats without veto rights. Considering the current setting, a permanent membership of African countries at the UNSC without Veto Power is meaningless. It will look more like a “second-class” membership status. Some analysts in the continent see this status as a “Permanent Observer Membership” at the Council.
Which countries to represent Africa?
Despite the Ezulwini Consensus stipulating that the African Union should be responsible for selecting Africa’s representatives in the Security Council, the continent has so far been unable to establish the criteria for choosing the two African candidates for permanent seats among its 55 member states.
African countries must engage in constructive dialogue and collaboration to establish common goals and criteria for selecting representatives who will best serve the continent’s interests.
What factors should determine who represents the African continent? This process may involve considering factors such as capacity, geopolitical importance, diplomatic experience, regional representation, commitment to upholding international law and human rights, and the ability to play within this complex global system effectively.
Should the continent push countries with large populations and/or big economies and diplomatic capacity, such as Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, or South Africa? Should a seat be reserved for the continental body, the African Union? On the latter, the difficulty will be that the African Union is still a purely intergovernmental body with no supranational authority. Member states maintain their sovereignty and decision-making power, and the AU only acts as a forum for coordination, cooperation, and consultation among its member states. The continent has serious homework to do on this.
Accountability
While deliberating on its representation, the African Union may also consider putting in place an accountability mechanism for its representatives at the UNSC. We know how proxy games, political influence, and pressure can impact decisions and votes at the United Nations. Recent history reminds us that in 2011, all three African non-permanent members of the Security Council (Gabon, Nigeria, South Africa) backed UNSC 1973, authorizing NATO’s military actions in Libya despite the African Union’s ongoing efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis. The resolution was tabled by France, the UK, and Lebanon.
Going forwards…
An amendment to the UN Charter would be needed to change the composition of the Council. Article 108 of the UN Charter states that an amendment requires the support of all Permanent Five (P5) members and a two-thirds majority of UN member states in the General Assembly. This will surely not be an easy process.
The upcoming Summit of the Future, to be held on the margins of the UN General Assembly, creates an additional opportunity to correct global governance and reinvigorate the multilateral system, including a fair reform of the UN Security Council that recognizes the urgent need to make it more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic, credible, and accountable.
On 10 June 2024, I participated in the Spring Meeting of the Paris Peace Forum hosted by the prestigious Mohamed VI University in Benguerir, Morocco, under the theme “Fair Transition,” with highlights on 1/ climate and development, 2/ agriculture and nutrition, 4/ energy and transition minerals, and 4/ global health. The Forum has brought together governments, universities, research bodies, civil society, and the private sector.
In addition to participating in the general plenary discussions, I spoke alongside global heavyweight experts, politicians, academics, and practitioners at the launch of a new initiative called the Agricultural Transition Lab for African Solution (ATLAS).
ATLAS will advocate for a globally shared vision of a sustainable African agricultural transformation based on a better understanding of African needs, breaking away from North and South divides, and seeing agriculture and climate as partners rather than adversaries.
Here are my key takeaways from various sessions, group discussions, and bilateral engagements during the very packed day of the forum:
A green energy transition that meets the needs of developing countries and is paired with imperatives of poverty reduction.
The transition towards cleaner and more renewable energy sources should balance the well-being of the planet and the development and prosperity of poor people who contribute the least to environmental degradation. To tap into the existing abundant source of green energy, there is a need for heavy global solidarity. International partnerships and cooperation are essential in supporting Africa’s energy transition. By sharing knowledge and expertise, mobilizing financial resources, and fostering technology transfer, the global community can help accelerate the shift towards a more sustainable energy future for all.
Agriculture, food and nutrition
Agriculture and nutrition are indispensable prerequisites for Africa’s development journey.
African food security is key in the face of a rapidly growing population and the ever-growing threat of climate change: 60% of Africans face food insecurity, 61% of the African population lives on wages below $2/day, and 2/3 of arable land is at risk of desertification. There is an imperative to transform Africa’s agricultural sector into a dynamic, modern, and sustainable engine of growth. Agriculture remains the backbone of many African economies, employing a significant portion of the population and contributing substantially to GDP.
Investing in Africa’s agriculture should go beyond just increasing crop yields; it also entails fostering a holistic approach to food security/sovereignty and nutrition. As Africa seeks to chart a course towards sustainable development, it is imperative that agriculture and nutrition remain central to the continent’s agenda. From empowering smallholder farmers and agribusinesses to scaling up nutrition interventions and promoting dietary diversity, the possibilities for transformative change are vast and promising for the continent.
From extractives to wealth creation in Africa
African countries should move from exporting mineral resources to prioritizing value addition and industrialization to capture more of the value from these resources. Africa can boost job creation, foster innovation, and drive economic growth by processing raw materials locally and developing higher value-adding industries. This shift towards industrialization is integral to promoting sustainable development and reducing Africa’s traditional role as a mere supplier of raw materials.
Adding value to natural resources in Africa has the potential to promote entrepreneurship and support small and medium-sized enterprises as engines of economic growth. African governments and development partners should boost initiatives to provide financing, training, and mentorship to entrepreneurs, enabling them to create innovative businesses that contribute to job creation and economic prosperity.
Africa needs to plan a phase-out of ODA.
It is undeniable that Official Development Assistance (ODA) has been instrumental in catalyzing progress. Aid flows have facilitated the building of schools and hospitals, the provision of clean water and sanitation, and the implementation of crucial social welfare programs. However, there are compelling reasons for African nations to consider planning a phase-out of aid dependency.
In the face of ongoing global development, there is growing consensus among experts that a shift towards self-reliance and sustainable development is paramount for Africa’s long-term growth and prosperity. Aid trap will cause the continent to miss out on the numerous existing opportunities to take off. Aid is becoming more and more unpredictable and subject to geopolitical agendas, making it an unreliable and unsustainable source of funding for development projects. This will hinder long-term planning and result in fragmented and short-term solutions that fail to address the root causes of poverty and underdevelopment in Africa.
Phasing out from aid can foster accountability and good governance. When governments are not solely reliant on external donors for funding, they are encouraged to be more transparent and responsive to their citizens’ needs. This shift can lead to more efficient and effective resource use, reducing the risk of corruption and mismanagement that often plague aid-funded projects. Transitioning towards self-reliance can stimulate domestic innovation and entrepreneurship as countries are forced to find locally-driven solutions to their development challenges. This can lead to the creation of sustainable businesses and industries that generate jobs and economic growth, ultimately reducing poverty and improving livelihoods.
Approximately 5,000 delegates participated in the recently concluded 50th Annual Meetings of the African Development Bank (AfDB), held from May 27 to 31, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya.
The Annual Meetings brought together the Bank Group’s governors representing 54 African countries and 27 non-African shareholders, as well as heads of state, researchers, experts, representatives of international bodies, the private sector, and civil society actors. They engaged in discussions and shared insights and strategies centered around the event’s theme, “Driving Africa’s Transformation: The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture.” The event garnered coverage from 200 media outlets.
Our Team from the ONE Campaign hosted a side event on the upcoming replenishment of the African Development Fund, the concessional window of the AfDB, which plays a critical role in providing financing and technical assistance to low-income countries in Africa.
Here are my 10 key takeaways from the Bank’s Annual Meetings:
Africa is at a pivotal juncture in its development path, facing a series of interconnected crises that threaten the progress achieved in recent decades. Addressing these challenges necessitates a comprehensive financial approach rooted in global solidarity to effectively meet urgent needs.
With a burgeoning population, abundant natural resources, and a youthful demographic, the continent boasts significant potential for economic growth and prosperity. However, unlocking this potential demands substantial financial investments and strategic planning
1- Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM) is crucial for Africa’s development. Enhancing efforts to mobilize domestic resources, including addressing Illicit Financial Flows. Every year, more than $89 billion leaves the African continent as Illicit Financial Flows, according to the UNCTAD. These are movements of money and assets across borders that are illegal in source, transfer, or use. It includes illicit capital that is getting out of the continent, tax and commercial practices like wrong invoicing of trade shipments, and criminal activities such as illegal markets, corruption, or theft. In addition, African countries should prioritize modernizing their tax systems. Many African countries offer overly generous tax incentives that need reevaluation.
2- Reform: The international financial architecture needs urgent reforms to becomemore responsive, fairer, and resourceful. By the United Nations’ definition, the international financial architecture refers to the governance arrangements that safeguard the stability and function of the global monetary and financial systems. It has evolved over time, often in an ad hoc fashion, driven by the policy preferences of large economies (…).
The ecosystem of the International financial architecture that needs to be thoroughly reviewed includes but is not limited to:
The Banks: IMF, WB, Regional Development Banks, etc.
The Markets: capital markets, stock markets, etc.
Credit Rating Agencies
International Tax Regime
3- Increasing concessional financing is essential to addressing African nations’ ambitious goals and priorities and tackling global challenges. Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) must intensify their efforts. The upcoming replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA) and the African Development Fund presents opportunities to bolster financial support.
4- Private Sector: Effective private sector engagement is vital to mobilize the trillions required for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Africa’s Agenda 2063, the Africa we want. MDBs alone cannot bridge the financing gap.
5 – Value Addition: Emphasizing value addition over raw material exports is key to economic prosperity in Africa because exporting raw materials often leads to impoverishment. Exporting raw materials is a highway to poverty. Value Addition is a gateway to prosperity.
6- Credit Rating: The global financial rating system must be fairer. A fairer rating could save Africa $75 billion a year in debt payments. Credit ratings impact the development trajectories of African countries by defining the cost of development financing. They also influence how much development partners can support critical investments on the continent.
AfDB is committed to supporting the creation of an African credit rating agency, not to replace or compete with existing agencies but to provide an alternative approach that takes into account contexts and realities on the continent.
7- Natural Capital: Africa’s natural capital is undervalued in the current calculation of GDPs. The AfDB committed to support the reevaluation of African countries’ GDP by incorporating natural capital considerations
8- AfDB Capital: The AfDB Board of Governors approved $117 billion of callable capital, bringing the total Bank’s capital from $201 Billion to $318 Billion.
Kenya is the first mover in replenishing the Africa Development Fund in 2025, with a pledge of $20 million.
9- Obstacles: Conflicts and political instability significantly hinder Africa’s progress and investment attractiveness. The lack of security increases the level of risk perceived by investors. Addressing these challenges is crucial as the continent’s youthful population continues to outpace job opportunities, leading to migration in search of better prospects. Corruption is surely the other obstacle that the continent needs to fight by all means.
10- New strategy: The African Development Bank Group introduced its Ten-Year Strategy 2024–2033, which focuses on investing in Africa’s youth and promoting gender equality, climate resilience, stability in fragile states, and good governance.
To achieve these objectives, the bank will deploy the following operational priorities.
Light up and power Africa: Promote universal access to modern and affordable energy.
Feed Africa: Ensure food security through agricultural transformation.
Industrialize Africa: Catalyze manufacturing as a critical driver of job creation.
Integrate Africa: Foster regional integration and value chains for a more cohesive economy.
Improve the quality of life: Enhance living standards, particularly for women and youth.
On the road to the upcoming Summit of the Future #SOTF, which will be held in September this year at the United Nations in New York, I was asked to share my thoughts about the role of Africa in the “Pact for the Future” that will be discussed and hopefully adopted at the said global Summit.
The discussion, hosted by the African Union’s ECOSOCC, happened virtually today.
After studying the 20-page zero draft of the Pact for the Future, with its 148 paragraphs, I can say that it is a comprehensive and well-elaborated document. I strongly recommend you read it fully. As it is a zero draft, it is open for input from various stakeholders before the September summit.
From financing sustainable development to international peace and security to science, technology, innovation, and digital cooperation, from the needed improvement of global governance to the urgent reform of the international financial institutions for better and increased resources, the draft of the Pact for the Future seems to be a completed memorandum to fix our world, save People, and save the Planet!
The question I have to answer now is, what should be Africa’s role in all of these?
Here are my 3 key ideas:
1/ First, Africa should have better representation at the Table.
This is critical for a meaningful contribution of the continent, in resolving the global issues mentioned in the draft of the Pact for the Future. Africa continues to be underrepresented in key international institutions and decision-making processes. This lack of representation not only hinders Africa’s ability to shape global policies actively but also perpetuates a cycle of inequality and imbalance in international relations. Africa can indeed play an impactful role in global affairs and can make significant contributions to addressing pressing global issues. Whether it is within international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund or at the UN Security Council, a fairer representation is essential to making things right!
Elevating Africa in global governance is not just a matter of fairness or justice; it should be seen as a strategic imperative for building a more stable, prosperous, and sustainable world for all. By giving space to Africa’s diverse voices and experiences, we can create a more inclusive and equitable global order that reflects the richness and diversity of our planet.
2/ We need to shift the current perspective on Africa’s role. The Continent should be seen as an important part of the solution, not just a warehouse or a reservoir of natural resources.
The continent is bringing demography & human resources. Africa represents 1.4 billion people, which is about 17% of the global population. Most of them are young, intelligent, dynamic, and willing to participate in the development process. This population will rise to 25% by 2050. The continent has a vibrant workforce and is experiencing a surge in innovation and entrepreneurship. By supporting and collaborating with African innovators, the global community can benefit from their transformative solutions.
In addition, Africa would bring wealth and natural resources. Africa is one of the world’s richest geographical regions in terms of its endowment with natural resources, with 60% of the world’s renewable energy assets and more than 30% of the minerals key to renewable and low-carbon technologies. Africa has the largest unused arable land, a heavy green energy potential, and other strategic, critical materials. From its vast mineral deposits to its fertile agricultural lands, the continent has much to offer. With proper management and sustainable practices, Africa’s resources can help address global challenges such as food security, water scarcity, and renewable energy.
One of the key global issues that Africa would greatly help address is climate change. Besides mitigating the impact of climate change, Africa also would contribute significantly to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
3/ My 3rd & last point is more about looking inward…Charity needs to start at Home
It would not be enough for the continent to sit at the table; Africa needs to clean its own house and ensure that, we resolve some of the problems that are in our capacity to fix.
We know them:
We call them shared values, and we adopted them at the AU, ECOWAS, SADC, EAC, etc
We call them accountability, peer review
We call them good governance, the rule of law;
We name them solidarity, fair sharing of national resources, and diversity management.
If we work seriously on them, Africa will be more apt/ready to play a meaningful role in the pact.
I would like to conclude by wondering if the simple discussion and adoption of the Pact for the Future will lead us to the promised land…
Whether at the UN, the African Union or the RECs… If only half of the various texts we have adopted have been implemented, I am sure we would have been at a different level…
So, what needs to be different now?
This is a question that you all can propose answers to, during the discussions.
What about a robust accountability mechanism for the realization of these commitments of the Pact for the future?
Assodesire 