Africa’s Critical Minerals: The G20 Must Choose Partnership Over Extraction

Across Africa’s vast land and ocean floors lie the minerals that will power the world’s green transition, digital revolution, and technological future. These minerals are not the margins of tomorrow’s economy, they are its spine. They determine who builds the cars, manufactures mobile phones, stores the energy, runs the servers, and controls the military and space technologies of the next century.

The Open Society Foundations and partners’ policy discussion today, in the margins of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg generated a solid roadmap! Here are my 7 takeaways:

Africa holds the ingredients of global power at a scale the world cannot ignore. Yet the question confronting the continent is not whether the world needs Africa. It is whether Africa is ready to lead, not follow; to bargain, not beg; to industrialize, not export raw; to become a rule-maker, not just a rule-taker.

As geopolitical tensions intensify, the United States, the European Union, China, and emerging powers are racing to secure long-term access to African minerals, using industrial policies, bilateral deals, and global pressure to reshape supply chains. Africa has become the epicenter of a new global scramble, one fought not with armies, but with subsidies, regulations, Environmental Social Governance standards (ESG), and strategic diplomacy.

This is Africa’s critical minerals moment, not just to be part of the global green transition, but to shape its terms, its industries, and its benefits. What Africa chooses to do now will decide if it becomes a leader in the new green economy, or remains just a place where others come to dig up raw materials.

1. A New Global Scramble, But This Time Africa Must Set the Terms

At the first G20 Summit ever held on to African soil, the continent finds itself at the center of the most consequential geopolitical realignment since the industrial revolution. The race for critical minerals, cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, rare earths, has triggered a new scramble, but this time powered by the urgency of the green transition and the anxieties of national security.

The old world is maneuvering aggressively.

  • The United States has unleashed the Inflation Reduction Act, industrial policy whose benefits flow mostly inward.
  • The European Union, facing Chinese dominance in battery and EV manufacturing, has erected its Critical Raw Materials Act; a shield for European industries.
  • China, already controlling 60% of refining and 80% of global battery manufacturing, continues to consolidate its strategic lead.

Meanwhile, Africa, home to 30% of global critical mineral reserves and 70% of the world’s cobalt, remains a marginal actor in the value chain, capturing less than 5% of the wealth generated by the minerals it exports.

2. The G20 in Johannesburg: A Mirror and a Moment

Africa must convert its mineral wealth into negotiating power, or others will convert it for us.

This moment is not just about minerals.
It is about power.
It is about narrative.
It is about agency.
It is about Africa refusing to be the “supplier of last resort” for a green economy built elsewhere.

3. Fragmented Countries Cannot Negotiate with United Continents

A recurring warning emerged from the panels: global powers have learned a tactical truth. It is easier to negotiate with Africa one country at a time, not as a continent.

This is how the “green colonialism” of the 21st century is unfolding: Isolate a government, offer a bilateral MoU, promise investments, small, quick, politically appealing, capture long-term mineral supply, secure value-addition on foreign soil.

This is why Europe’s Global Gateway, and the U.S. Mineral Security Partnership look generous on paper but are deeply strategic in practice. They secure raw materials, not African industrialization.

As one expert warned: “If you isolate Ghana, you get a lithium deal. If you isolate Zimbabwe, you get a cobalt deal. But if Africa stands together, the world must negotiate differently.”

Africa needs bargaining power, bargaining power requires unity, Unity requires political leadership.

4. Industrialization is Not a Smelter. It Is an entire Ecosystem.

One myth must die for Africa to rise: the myth that industrialization is about building a smelter and calling it transformation.

A smelter does not create an economy. It is energy-intensive, capital-heavy, low-employment, and often detached from local needs.

“Africa’s opportunity is not just in the rock. It is in the engineering, logistics, innovation, manufacturing and services around it.”

This is how future could look like:

  • battery precursors in Zambia-DRC,
  • graphite processing in Mozambique,
  • green steel in South Africa,
  • cathode manufacturing in Namibia,
  • electric motorcycle plants in Kenya,
  • solar panel assembly hubs in North Africa
  • and more…

Africa can no longer be told it “lacks markets.” Markets are built, not waited for.
China built its market. Europe built its market. Africa must now build its own.

5. Political Courage: The Missing Ingredient

Many African countries remain trapped by predictable political constraints:, negotiating contracts in secrecy, prioritizing royalties instead of jobs, allowing foreign companies to dictate standards, failing to invest in geological mapping, underfunding universities and technical faculties, ignoring artisanal miners, women, and local communities, and, treating industrial policy as an afterthought rather than a national mission

6. Communities Must Not Become Casualties of the Green Transition

The extractives history of Africa is written in: displaced communities,polluted rivers, gender based violence, corporate impunity, destroyed ecosystems, and broken promises.

The green transition risks repeating all of this, only faster. Communities must be co-owners of the future, not victims of it. This means:

  • Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) must be real, not cosmetic.
  • Women must benefit from mining, not be excluded from it.
  • Royalties must serve communities, not elites; 1% is unacceptable.
  • Environmental assessments must be public, enforceable, and community-driven.
  • Artisanal miners must be supported, not criminalized.

Africa cannot trade justice for development. There is no trade-off. Justice is development.

Our Foundations’ Resource Futures Programme (Opportunity) is clear about rights, transparency, communities, gender equity, and accountability. These are not peripheral; they are central to the industrial future Africa must build.

7. A Roadmap for African Power in the New Mineral Order

Here are what G20 leaders, especially South Africa and the African Union must champion:

An African Critical Minerals Alliance: A continent-wide coalition modeled on the “Lithium Triangle” of Latin America, focused on common standards, coordinated pricing, uniform beneficiation targets, and joint negotiation platforms.

A Pan-African Critical Minerals Fund: Capitalized by AfDB, Afreximbank, African sovereign funds, and diaspora financing to invest in geological mapping, refineries, industrial parks, battery corridors, and African-owned manufacturing ventures.

Continental Standards for Transparency and FPIC: No more secret deals. No more exploitation of communities. No more extractive colonialism wearing green clothing.

Regional Industrial Corridors: Scale is Africa’s currency. No single country can industrialize alone. DRC-Zambia Battery Corridor, Lobito Corridor, and new SADC/EAC/ECOWAS industrial zones must become the backbone of African manufacturing.

A Continental Electrification and Green Mobility Plan: Africa’s minerals must power African energy systems. No industrialization is possible without affordable, reliable energy.

Technology Transfer as a Non-Negotiable: Partnerships that do not share technology are not partnerships. They are extraction agreements.

The world cannot achieve a green transition without Africa, but Africa can fail to benefit from that transition if it hesitates, fragments, or negotiates poorly.

The world needs Africa. Africa must now decide what it needs from the world.

An Influencing Space!

A telling moment at our side event showed just how far our influence is beginning to reach. When a member state steps into a space we created, it is more than participation; it is recognition of our growing authority. This was clear when the representative of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country central to the world’s cobalt supply, not only attended our critical minerals session but insisted on taking the floor. His intervention underscored a simple truth: the conversations we are driving are now shaping national positions, not just reflecting them.

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G20 Summit: When the World Comes to Africa

In a world divided by wars, inequality, and distrust, it is easy to forget that cooperation is still possible, and necessary. Yet in a few days, the world’s 20 largest economies will gather for the first time on African soil, when South Africa hosts the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg.

As I prepare to join the Open Society Foundations’ Team to participate in the various policy influencing gatherings around this historical moment in our continent, I would like to share this article in 7 quick points on the fundamentals of G20, why does it matter and what is at stake at this particular meeting.

You can also read my article “The African Union at the G20, Now What?” published in 2023 when the continental body became a full member of the Group.

1. What Exactly Is the G20 and Why Does It Matter?

The Group of Twenty (G20) is not a formal organization with a treaty or a secretariat. It is a forum of major economies ; 19 countries plus the European Union, and, since 2023, the African Union as a permanent member. Together, these members account for around 85% of global GDP, 75% of trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population.

Created in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and elevated to leaders’ level during the 2008 global recession, the G20 was designed to prevent economic shocks and coordinate policies on trade, finance, and growth. But in recent years, its agenda has expanded to include climate change, digital transformation, health, debt, and inequality; the most crucial issues of our time.

The G20 has no binding power. Its strength lies in influence and direction-setting. When its leaders agree on principles, those tend to shape the policies of the World Bank, IMF, WTO, OECD, and multilateral development banks.

2. How Does the G20 Work?

The G20 runs on a rotating presidency system. Each host sets the annual theme, convenes meetings, and steers negotiations toward a Leaders’ Declaration at year’s end.

There are two main tracks:

  • The Finance Track, led by finance ministers and central bank governors, covers debt, taxation, global financial stability, and reform of multilateral banks.
  • The Sherpa Track, led by appointed national representatives shapes the political and developmental agenda: climate, trade, gender, health, digital, and more.

Around these formal meetings orbit the engagement groups: the B20 (business), T20 (think tanks), C20 (civil society), Y20 (youth), L20 (labour), and W20 (women). These forums allow business leaders, academics, activists, and youth voices to influence the official agenda.

3. The G20 Troika: Steering the Ship

At the helm of this sprawling system sits what’s known as the G20 Troika, a three-member steering mechanism composed of the past, current, and incoming presidencies. For 2025, that means Brazil, South Africa, and the United States.

The Troika ensures continuity and coherence, preventing the G20 from turning into a series of disconnected host-year projects. Under this configuration, Brazil’s developmental priorities, South Africa’s equality agenda, and America’s upcoming geopolitical stance are meant to align, though that is easier said than done.

This particular Troika is geopolitically fascinating: it brings together three continents and three contrasting worldviews, Latin America’s focus on social justice, Africa’s call for fairness, and America’s realist power politics. How they navigate their differences will determine whether the G20 remains a platform for cooperation or becomes another theatre of global rivalry.

4. What’s at Stake in South Africa’s 2025 G20

South Africa has chosen the theme “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability.” It speaks directly to the heart of global tensions: how to make globalization fairer, how to finance development and climate justice, and how to ensure the voices of emerging economies are heard.

a) Reforming Global Finance

Pretoria wants to push for a new deal on development finance, faster and fairer debt treatment for developing countries, reforms to make multilateral development banks “better, bigger, and bolder,” and a recognition that economic stability cannot exist without climate resilience.

African and other Global South nations face unsustainable debt servicing costs. South Africa’s message is clear: the financial architecture built in the 20th century no longer serves the 21st.

b) Tackling Inequality

In August 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa launched a G20 Taskforce on Global Inequality, chaired by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, to propose ways to close the wealth gap within and between nations. This is an important issue not just for Africa but globally,  a moral and economic imperative to ensure growth benefits all.

c) Africa’s Voice, Finally Heard

With the African Union now a full G20 member, the continent can finally speak for itself rather than being spoken for. Expect key side sessions on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), industrialization, critical minerals, climate adaptation, and food security, all framed within Agenda 2063, our continental business plan.

South Africa’s challenge will be to turn symbolism into influence: translating Africa’s presence into concrete outcomes on finance, trade, and representation.

5. The Side Conversations That Matter

Beyond the leaders’ sessions, Johannesburg will host a series of side summits and engagement meetings:

  • The B20 in Sandton will debate how to scale private investment into Africa’s green and digital economy.
  • The T20 and C20 will focus on knowledge and civic advocacy; from climate justice to digital governance.
  • A Social Summit is planned to bridge policy with lived realities, giving voice to labor unions, civil society, and youth groups.
  • And many more…

If managed well, these parallel tracks could make the 2025 summit the most inclusive G20 in history.

6. Geopolitics on the Horizon: The U.S. Presidency Awaits

As the summit closes, South Africa will hand the presidency baton to the United States, ushering in the 2026 cycle under President Donald Trump.

This transition is likely to reshape the tone and priorities of the G20. From his previous to his current term, Trump often dismissed multilateralism as “globalist bureaucracy,” withdrew the U.S. from major climate commitments, and clashed with African nations, including South Africa over trade, immigration, and political values.

If history is any guide, Washington’s return to the chair may turn the G20 toward hard transactionalism rather than solidarity. However, global realities have changed: the war in Ukraine, the emergence of several other economic powers, and the growing assertiveness of the Global South mean that no single power, not even the U.S. can dictate the agenda alone.

The South African presidency, in that sense, may become the bridge year that sets boundaries: asserting that Africa’s concerns including debt relief, equitable energy transition, and representation, are now central, not peripheral, to global decision-making.

7. The Difficult Conversations

Even as Johannesburg prepares to welcome the world, divisions remain:

  • Debt restructuring remains painfully slow under the G20’s Common Framework.
  • Climate commitments are uneven, with disagreements on phasing out fossil fuels.
  • Wars in Europe and the Middle East risk hijacking the declaration text.
  • Reform of international institutions, including the IMF and World Bank, remains politically charged.

South Africa’s diplomacy will be tested, balancing moral clarity with pragmatic coalition-building.

This G20 is historic not only because it is being held in Africa, but because it may redefine what leadership looks like in a fractured world.

For Africa, it is an assertion of agency. For South Africa, it is a chance to prove that dialogue across divides is still possible. For the G20, it is a reminder that solidarity and sustainability are not slogans, but survival strategies.

If Johannesburg 2025 can deliver even a modest consensus on fairer finance, inclusion, and global cooperation, it will mark the beginning of a new era; one where the Global South is not at the margins, but at the centre of shaping the future of global governance.

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Navigating South Africa’s Complex Landscape

Politics, Economics, and Geopolitical Repositioning

“Amandla! Aweetu!” (“Power to the people!”).

This slogan resonating deeply through South Africa’s history echoed throughout our Open Society Foundation Team Learning Tour in Johannesburg this week. Over a few days of rich interaction with community leaders, political analysts, activists, and ordinary citizens, one thing became clear: the struggle for genuine freedom and dignity in South Africa is far from over.

South African Democracy at 30: Gains and Pains

South Africa reaches three decades of democracy, marked by the end of apartheid and the rise of the African National Congress (ANC). Yet, this period is not celebrated unanimously.

As we engaged with local experts, social activists and ordinary citizens this pressing question emerged repeatedly: “Can we truly say we are free today?” Alarmingly, many South Africans we encountered felt democracy’s dividends remain elusive, summarizing their experiences by stating, “30 years of democracy have been painful, paid for in blood.”

While the advent of democracy signaled hope and equity, many comrades cited the erosion of trust in public institutions as democracy’s core crisis. Corruption, nepotism, and government inefficiency have fostered deep-rooted cynicism. One of the political experts we met, pointed out that liberation movements in Southern Africa are witnessing dramatic declines in public support precisely because they failed to deliver on their democratic promises. South Africa is no exception, with the ANC’s electoral dominance notably declining in recent years.

From Chains to Change: Our Inspiring Journey at South Africa’s Constitutional Court

Our visit to South Africa’s Constitutional Court as part of our Learning Tour was deeply moving; a reminder of how far this country has journeyed. More than just a court of law, the Constitutional Court is a living testament to South Africa’s courageous transformation from the shadows of apartheid to the light of democracy.

Built on the grounds of a former prison where countless men and women were unjustly imprisoned for their political beliefs or simply because of their race, the Constitutional Court stands today as a powerful symbol of redemption and resilience. Its walls, crafted from the very red bricks that once enclosed prisoners, represent a profound act of reclaiming pain, transforming it into purpose, and embracing the lessons of history to shape a brighter future.

Holding our meetings at Constitution Hill reinforced our belief in justice; not merely as a principle to uphold, but as a profound human experience to embody. This space remains a beacon of hope, dignity, and strength, reminding us that true justice must not only be delivered; it must be felt, deeply and unambiguously, by every citizen.

Coalition Politics and New Agendas

Amid declining single-party dominance, South Africa is increasingly governed by coalitions. Experts we engaged with noted that coalitions, while turbulent, also present unique opportunities for the voices of marginalized communities and social movements to influence policy agendas.

Yet, despite this opportunity, coalitions are still dominated by elites. “Even in coalitions, governments are still governments of elites”: said one of the invited experts. For social movements to effectively influence policies, they must become key stakeholders rather than merely beneficiaries of political gestures.

South African Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Promises and Deepening Inequality

The economic realities we witnessed in South Africa underscore a troubling stagnation, sharply divided along racial and social lines. Today, over half of South Africans, more than 30 million people, live in poverty, struggling daily with food insecurity and inadequate housing. Youth unemployment escalated from 36.8% in 2014 to 45.5% in 2024, but this figure skyrockets to nearly 70% among black youth, who continue to bear the brunt of economic exclusion.

Townships like Phola in eMalahleni, Mpumalanga Province, are surrounded by mines exploitations and power plants, yet residents suffer regular power outages and water shortages. Local hospitals and clinics, often under-resourced and overcrowded, fail to adequately serve communities battling chronic illnesses caused by pollution and poor sanitation.

During our visit to coal-affected communities in Mpumalanga, residents expressed deep concerns regarding government’s proposed “just energy transition.” Community members expressed fears over employment instability. Coal mining currently sustains thousands of jobs in the region; however, transitioning to renewable sectors such as solar energy might drastically reduce available employment. Residents highlighted specific anxieties about job numbers, noting that while mines employ large workforces, proposed solar projects might offer only a handful of positions. This stark contrast underscores their apprehension about economic security and stability.

Additionally, communities raised significant issues around engagement and information-sharing. They felt largely excluded from discussions shaping their future, with critical details about the energy transition rarely reaching beyond small groups. The harsh realities were voiced clearly by a young leader in Phola who sharply criticized plans for a transition from coal to hydrogen energy. He described the proposed “just transition” as “a scam,” arguing passionately that such policies exclude local communities, who fear even higher levels of unemployment and deeper poverty.

Community skepticism was fueled not by resistance to scientific change but by a historical mistrust rooted in persistent structural injustices and exploitation. Residents emphasized that meaningful participation, genuine transparency, and clear communication from authorities are crucial for any transition to be truly “just” and inclusive.

Progress Amidst Inequality: Foundations of South Africa’s Post-Apartheid Development

Despite significant ongoing challenges, South Africa has made notable strides in economic and social development since the end of apartheid. The mining sector, historically pivotal, laid the foundations for the country’s modern economy, facilitating important regional economic linkages through remittances and industrial supply chains. Revenue generated from mining and related industries has enabled substantial public investments, notably in social protection programs such as social grants, which support millions of vulnerable South Africans. Additionally, progress has been made in expanding basic infrastructure, improving access to health services, education, water, and electricity for large segments of the population previously excluded from such essential services. Although these systems currently face considerable strain, their establishment represents meaningful advancements towards social equity and economic inclusivity.

Supporting Social Movements: The Power of People

Social movements represent the real heartbeat of South Africa’s democratic potential. Organizations such as MACUA (Mining Affected Communities United in Action), a nationwide radical network, highlight this power strongly. MACUA is driving grassroots resistance to exploitation by mining corporations, challenging corruption, and pushing for accountability in community consultations.

Our discussions with MACUA representatives stressed the importance of authentic partnerships with social movements. As articulated by activist leaders: “We want partners to walk side by side with us, not ahead of us.”

They further urge partner to:

  •  Invest in building community capacity to advocate autonomously for their rights.
  • Facilitate platforms where marginalized community voices inform policy decisions, especially regarding environmental justice and economic transitions.

Their powerful stance reflects a broader desire for autonomy, dignity, and effective participation in decision-making processes.

Land, Justice, and Economic Reform: Reclaiming Dignity

One of our resource persons, brought our attention to the enduring challenge of land justice; calling landlessness an engineered crisis born of centuries of settler colonialism. The prolonged legacy sees up to 72% land ownership still concentrated within a small white minority, causing indignity for millions.

The absence of meaningful economic reform further entrenches inequality. South Africa, once heavily reliant on mining, has struggled to diversify and democratize its economic base. Advocates demand comprehensive policies geared toward economic redistribution and genuine transformation, insisting that “Land reform has become land management; what we need is land justice.”

The way Forward: Inclusive Prosperity

Our learning tour crystallized a critical realization: South Africa is at a crossroads. Coalition politics, economic diversification, just energy transitions, and geopolitical repositioning must be leveraged to genuinely include marginalized communities. Unity governance cannot be superficial; it must empower communities, enabling them to reclaim their agency and dignity.

The journey towards genuine democracy and sustainable development in South Africa continues. As we concluded our visit, reflecting on diverse narratives shared with us, it became clear that South Africa’s future rests not only in policy frameworks or electoral politics but fundamentally in the strength and resilience of its people and their persistent struggle for a truly inclusive, just, and prosperous society.

Amandla! Aweetu! Power indeed belongs to the people.

The Pact for the Future; the Role of Africa

On the road to the upcoming Summit of the Future #SOTF, which will be held in September this year at the United Nations in New York, I was asked to share my thoughts about the role of Africa in the “Pact for the Future” that will be discussed and hopefully adopted at the said global Summit.

The discussion, hosted by the African Union’s ECOSOCC, happened virtually today.

After studying the 20-page zero draft of the Pact for the Future, with its 148 paragraphs, I can say that it is a comprehensive and well-elaborated document. I strongly recommend you read it fully. As it is a zero draft, it is open for input from various stakeholders before the September summit.

From financing sustainable development to international peace and security to science, technology, innovation, and digital cooperation, from the needed improvement of global governance to the urgent reform of the international financial institutions for better and increased resources, the draft of the Pact for the Future seems to be a completed memorandum to fix our world, save People, and save the Planet!

The question I have to answer now is, what should be Africa’s role in all of these?

Here are my 3 key ideas:

1/ First, Africa should have better representation at the Table.

This is critical for a meaningful contribution of the continent, in resolving the global issues mentioned in the draft of the Pact for the Future. Africa continues to be underrepresented in key international institutions and decision-making processes. This lack of representation not only hinders Africa’s ability to shape global policies actively but also perpetuates a cycle of inequality and imbalance in international relations. Africa can indeed play an impactful role in global affairs and can make significant contributions to addressing pressing global issues. Whether it is within international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund or at the UN Security Council, a fairer representation is essential to making things right!

Elevating Africa in global governance is not just a matter of fairness or justice; it should be seen as a strategic imperative for building a more stable, prosperous, and sustainable world for all. By giving space to Africa’s diverse voices and experiences, we can create a more inclusive and equitable global order that reflects the richness and diversity of our planet.

2/ We need to shift the current perspective on Africa’s role. The Continent should be seen as an important part of the solution, not just a warehouse or a reservoir of natural resources.

The continent is bringing demography & human resources. Africa represents 1.4 billion people, which is about 17% of the global population. Most of them are young, intelligent, dynamic, and willing to participate in the development process. This population will rise to 25% by 2050. The continent has a vibrant workforce and is experiencing a surge in innovation and entrepreneurship. By supporting and collaborating with African innovators, the global community can benefit from their transformative solutions.

In addition, Africa would bring wealth and natural resources. Africa is one of the world’s richest geographical regions in terms of its endowment with natural resources, with 60% of the world’s renewable energy assets and more than 30% of the minerals key to renewable and low-carbon technologies. Africa has the largest unused arable land, a heavy green energy potential, and other strategic, critical materials. From its vast mineral deposits to its fertile agricultural lands, the continent has much to offer. With proper management and sustainable practices, Africa’s resources can help address global challenges such as food security, water scarcity, and renewable energy.

One of the key global issues that Africa would greatly help address is climate change. Besides mitigating the impact of climate change, Africa also would contribute significantly to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

3/ My 3rd & last point is more about looking inward…Charity needs to start at Home

It would not be enough for the continent to sit at the table; Africa needs to clean its own house and ensure that, we resolve some of the problems that are in our capacity to fix.

We know them:

  • We call them shared values, and we adopted them at the AU, ECOWAS, SADC, EAC, etc
  • We call them accountability, peer review
  • We call them good governance, the rule of law;
  • We name them solidarity, fair sharing of national resources, and diversity management.

If we work seriously on them, Africa will be more apt/ready to play a meaningful role in the pact.

I would like to conclude by wondering if the simple discussion and adoption of the Pact for the Future will lead us to the promised land…

Whether at the UN, the African Union or the RECs… If only half of the various texts we have adopted have been implemented, I am sure we would have been at a different level…

So, what needs to be different now?

This is a question that you all can propose answers to, during the discussions.

What about a robust accountability mechanism for the realization of these commitments of the Pact for the future?

What could be the form of such a mechanism?

I thank you for your attention!