In Johannesburg, on 17 November 2025, as G20 delegates gather on African soil for a historic summit, a parallel gathering sent an even louder moral message: “Debt is Robbing Africa’s Future… The G20 Must Change the Game.”
Development experts, economists, civil society actors and multilateral partners came together around a simple but radical premise: Africa is not merely a continent in debt. It is a net creditor to the world, in climate, in stolen wealth, in undervalued labor and resources, and it is time the global financial system reflected that reality.
The high-level policy dialogue was co-hosted by the African Union Commission, UNDP, UNECA, AFRODAD and the Open Society Foundations, under the theme: “Rethinking Debt Sustainability and Exploring Alternative Financing Models Better Suited to Africa’s Context.”
The message was clear: the current system is morally indefensible, economically unsustainable and politically dangerous. The discussion did not stop at lament; it set out what must change, on the continent and in global forums, if Africa is to move from perpetual crisis management to structural transformation.
What follows are the core takeaways from that conversation.
Africa Spends More on Debt than on Hospitals and Classrooms
The headline numbers are alarming:
African external debt climbed from just over US$500 billion in 2020 to more than US$1 trillion by 2024. In 2024 alone, African countries spent about US$163 billion on debt service according to the AfDB. More than 25 African countries are already in debt distress or at high risk of it. African countries often borrow at interest rates around four times higher than those paid by advanced economies, despite sometimes similar or better fundamentals.
Behind these numbers lies a harsh reality: in many African countries, more money now goes to creditors than to health and education combined. Over half of the continent’s population lives in countries where teachers, nurses and social services are effectively competing with bondholders and banks – and too often losing.
At the same time, Africa is losing tens of billions every year through illicit financial flows and unfair trade, while carrying the costs of a climate crisis it did not cause. Taken together, the continent is effectively a net creditor to the world, in climate, in resources, and in stolen wealth, yet it is still treated as a perpetual debtor in the global financial system.
Structural Traps: Food, Fuel and the Manufacturing Deficit
Why does African debt keep returning in waves? Because three deep structural deficits keep feeding the debt trap:
Food deficit: Africa now imports the bulk of its food, despite vast arable land and strong farming traditions. Colonial and post-colonial policies turned many African countries into exporters of cash crops, while basic staples are imported from elsewhere. Every ton of food produced domestically is future debt avoided, yet the continent remains over-exposed to volatile global food prices and exchange rates.
Energy deficit: Even major oil producers export crude and import refined fuels at higher prices. In the green economy, the pattern risks being repeated: Africa exports critical minerals but struggles to mobilise finance and technology to build its own renewable energy infrastructure. Every kilowatt-hour generated domestically is imported fuel, and future borrowing, saved.
Manufacturing and value-added deficit: African economies export low-value raw materials and import high-value finished products and sophisticated inputs. Local manufacturing depends heavily on imported machinery, technology and intermediates. This structure locks in trade deficits, weakens currencies, and fuels the need for constant external borrowing to plug balance-of-payments gaps.
The result is a vicious cycle: currency pressures and imported inflation push governments to subsidize food and fuel in the short term, while borrowing more hard currency in the medium term, which in turn deepens the next debt crisis. Debt is not just a number; it is the price Africa pays for a global economic model that keeps it at the bottom of the value chain.
There is no sustainable solution to Africa’s debt problem without structural transformation – in food systems, energy systems and industrial policy. Debt must be linked to a long-term plan to escape the role of raw-material supplier and become a driver of value-added production.
We Have Written It Down. Will Anyone Listen?
Africa is no longer speaking with a fragmented voice. In 2025, African finance ministers endorsed a Common African Position on Debt, anchored in an earlier AU decision in Lomé on debt. That position calls for fairer, faster, more transparent restructuring and a broader definition of sustainability that reflects climate, development and social needs, not only creditor comfort.
Africa arrives at the G20 with clear, unified asks:
1/ Reform of the G20 Common Framework
Faster, time-bound and transparent processes.
Automatic standstills on debt service during negotiations.
Fair burden-sharing among all creditors, including private bondholders.
Inclusion of debt-distressed middle-income African countries, not only low-income ones.
2/ Fairer global liquidity and borrowing costs
Reformed SDR allocations and quota formulas that recognise Africa’s real weight and needs.
Support for an African Credit Rating Agency to counter biased assessments and punitive risk premia.
3/ A new understanding of debt sustainability
Debt assessments that integrate development and climate needs, not just narrow debt ratios.
Recognition of Africa’s status as a net creditor in ecological and historical terms.
A shift from short-term crisis management towards long-term investment in structural transformation.
4/ Domestic responsibility with international fairness
Stronger domestic resource mobilisation, better governance and transparency.
Determined efforts to curb illicit financial flows.
A clear focus on using borrowed resources for productive, inclusive and climate-resilient investments.
Fixing the Architecture: From the IMF to the United Nations
The discussion moved from diagnosis to concrete reforms of the global debt architecture.
Many participants stressed that the current system, dominated by the IMF, the Paris Club and the G20 Common Framework, suffers from deep conflicts of interest. Institutions that lend, advise and judge at the same time cannot credibly act as neutral arbiters in sovereign debt workouts.
Key proposals included:
A UN-led framework for sovereign debt resolution, built on principles of fairness, inclusiveness and transparency, where all countries have a voice and no single creditor bloc dominates.
An African High-Level Panel on Debt, building on the legacy of the High-Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows, to monitor implementation of AU decisions, coordinate African positions and maintain pressure for global reform.
A re-imagined role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), with reformed quota formulas that better reflect the real size of African economies and their populations, and with SDRs channelled through African institutions such as the African Development Bank to support long-term investment rather than short-term firefighting.
Creation of a Pan-African Commodity Stabilisation Fund. Many African economies are highly dependent on a small number of commodities. A continental stabilisation facility could pool risks across multiple countries and commodities, and provide automatic, rules-based support when prices drop below agreed thresholds. This would help countries avoid the sharp external shocks that drive them into crisis and default. Such a mechanism would complement other AU-driven initiatives, including proposals for an African financial stability mechanism and a debt monitoring framework.
Conclusion: From Robbed Futures to a Different Destiny
If debt is robbing Africa’s future, it is also stealing something less visible but equally vital: possibility. Every dollar wired to a creditor instead of a clinic is a child not vaccinated, a girl sent home from school, a community left in the dark. Every budget cut to social protection is a silent decision about whose life is expendable.
Africa is the youngest continent on earth, with the creativity, talent and energy to power a different global future. Yet its children are growing up under the shadow of debts they did not incur, to pay for a crisis they did not cause, through a system they did not design. That is not just inefficient. It is unjust.
The G20 summit in Johannesburg is more than a diplomatic milestone. It is a moral test. Will the world’s most powerful economies continue to treat Africa as a risk to be contained and a resource to be extracted? Or will they finally recognise it as a partner whose prosperity is essential to shared global stability?
Africa has done its part: it has analysed the problem, articulated common positions, and put concrete solutions on the table. The blueprint for change exists. What is missing is the political will to act on it.
Debt should not be a life sentence. With courage from African leaders, honesty from creditors, and solidarity from citizens across the globe, it can become a bridge, from vulnerability to resilience, from extraction to transformation.
We have written it down. We have said it, clearly and collectively: Debt is robbing Africa’s future. The G20 must change the game. The only open question now is whether those with power will choose to listen, and to act, before another generation is forced to pay the price.
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At the Fourth Financing for Development (FFD4) Conference last month (July 2025) in Seville, Spain, the Open Society Foundations (OSF) and the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) brought together policymakers, experts, and civil society leaders to debate one of the defining questions of our time: whose energy transition is Africa’s critical minerals boom really serving?
As global powers from China to the EU and the United States compete to secure supplies of cobalt, lithium, and copper, Africa finds itself at the crossroads of a new geopolitical scramble. Projects such as the $1.6 billion Lobito Corridor, linking Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are being touted as game-changers for development. Yet, as participants noted, the financing, design, and governance of such mega-projects raise uncomfortable questions: are they designed to serve African citizens and economies, or primarily to feed the energy transitions of others?
Moderated by Lindlyn Moma, Director of Strategic Impact at IIED, the discussion cut to the heart of Africa’s development dilemmas: who defines Africa’s critical minerals agenda, who benefits from it, and at what cost?
The conversation underscored three urgent realities.
1. The Infrastructure Mirage
From billion-dollar transport corridors to solar-powered grids, Africa’s infrastructure boom is being marketed as the key to unlocking mineral wealth. Yet, as Brian Kagoro, Managing Director of Programs at OSF, pointed out, the numbers don’t always add up: “A project worth $1.6 billion sounds impressive, but when compared to the revenues it generates, the figure is small substantively. What have we oversold and what have we undervalued?”
Participants reflected on recent developments such as Zambia’s newly launched Chinese-built solar grid. While such projects dominate headlines, the real question is whether they deliver sustainable returns or simply deepen dependency. Kagoro noted that infrastructure costs are soaring while social and environmental impacts remain largely ignored.
2. The Trap of Long-Term Deals
Critical minerals contracts, trade agreements, and investment treaties being signed today could lock African states into decades of dependency. Lorenzo Cotula, Head of Law, Economies and Justice at IIED, cautioned: “These agreements are long term, they’re difficult to get out of, and they will constrain options for governments 10 or 20 years from now, when circumstances may have completely changed.”
This is especially pressing as technologies for cobalt, lithium, and other minerals evolve quickly. Signing inflexible deals today risks leaving Africa locked into obsolete arrangements tomorrow. Short-term capital inflows must not mortgage Africa’s long-term sovereignty.
3. Who Owns the Vision?
China has a strategy for Africa, the Netherlands has a strategy for Africa, Canada, France, Spain, Italie etc. have strategies for Africa, but Africa has no strategy for anyone.
The African Mining Vision (AMV) remains aspirational rather than binding. Without a proper collective strategy, African states respond piecemeal to external initiatives, forfeiting leverage and reinforcing fragmentation. Trevor Simumba, a Zambian trade and investment policy expert stressed that unless countries like Zambia and the DRC coordinate their approaches, they will continue to negotiate from a position of weakness.
Beyond Extractivism
The panel challenged the assumption that building corridors and exporting raw minerals will automatically generate jobs and industrial linkages. Brian Kagoro reminded the audience that history proves otherwise: “We keep assuming that value addition will happen naturally. It doesn’t. We’ve seen decommissioned railways and unemployed workers left behind by past extractive booms.”
True transformation requires rethinking infrastructure and minerals policy as tools for industrialization, human rights, and ecological sustainability, not just extraction.
A Call for People-Centered Strategy
For Ketakandriana (“Ke”) Rafitoson, Executive Director of Publish What You Pay, the minerals agenda must be rooted in transparency and accountability: “Critical minerals governance cannot just be about contracts and corridors. Citizens need to be part of the conversation, because this is as much about rights and democracy as it is about economics.”
The panel agreed: critical minerals are Africa’s leverage in the global energy transition. But without participatory governance and regional coordination, that leverage risks being squandered.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The discussion reminded us that the fight over Africa’s minerals is also a fight over its future. If Africa fails to craft its own infrastructure and critical minerals strategy, others will continue to do it on its behalf. The stakes are generational: sovereignty, sustainability, and the ability to harness mineral wealth for people, not just for profits.
The message from Seville was unambiguous: Africa must move from being the object of global strategies to being the author of its own.
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🌍 Highlights from AfDB Annual Meetings 2025 in Abidjan: At the opening of the African Development Bank (AfDB) Annual Meetings in Abidjan, African leaders issued a strong call for continental capital mobilization and economic self-reliance. Key points: 🔹 Urgency for Africa to rely less on external aid and instead harness its natural resources, youth potential, and domestic capital to drive inclusive development. 🔹 AfDB President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina Reflected on his 10-year tenure, highlighting over $100 billion invested and 565 million lives impacted through the Bank’s “High 5s” strategy (Power Africa, Feed Africa, Industrialize Africa, Integrate Africa, Improve quality of life). 🔹 African Leaders discussed the need for a new African financial architecture, advocating for reforms that prioritize the continent’s voice in global finance and promote homegrown solutions to development challenges. 🔹 A new AfDB President will be elected during these meetings, marking a transition in leadership at a crucial time for Africa’s economic future. 🟢 The overarching message: Africa must unlock its own capital, strengthen institutions, and build resilient economies from within.
African Development Bank’s (AfDB) 2025 African Economic Outlook report: 🌍 AfDB’s African Economic Outlook 2025: Resilience Amid Global Challenges Despite global economic and political headwinds, Africa’s economy is projected to grow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025, reaching 4.0% in 2026. This resilience is attributed to effective domestic reforms and improved macroeconomic management. (African Development Bank Group) Key Highlights: 📈 Growth Leaders: 21 African countries are expected to achieve growth rates above 5% in 2025, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal projected to exceed 7%.(African Development Bank Group) 🌍 Regional Performance: East Africa: Leading with a projected growth of 5.9%, driven by resilience in Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Tanzania. West Africa: Maintaining solid growth at 4.3%, bolstered by new oil and gas production in Senegal and Niger. North Africa: Expected to register 3.6% growth. Central Africa: Projected to slow to 3.2%. Southern Africa: Anticipated to grow at 2.2%, with South Africa expected at 0.8%.(African Development Bank Group) 💰 Domestic Resource Mobilization: With appropriate policies, Africa could mobilize an additional $1.43 trillion in domestic resources from tax and non-tax revenue sources through efficiency gains alone.(African Development Bank Group) ⚠️ Challenges: Fifteen countries are experiencing double-digit inflation, and interest payments now consume 27.5% of government revenue across Africa, up from 19% in 2019.(African Development Bank Group) The report underscores the importance of Africa looking inward to mobilize resources needed for its development in the coming years. Full report: https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/african-economic-outlook-2025
From different side discussions I participated in here in Washington DC on this subject matter, as we conclude the 2025 World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, one message is abundantly clear: Africa must come prepared to the Fourth Financing for Development (FFD4) Conference in Seville. It should not be simply another global convening, FFD4 represents an unparalleled moment for the continent to redefine financial justice, assert its agency, and demand structural transformations within the global economic governance system.
The current global financial architecture is profoundly inequitable, marked by a historical bias that relegates African and other Global South countries to the periphery. Brian Kagoro, Managing Director for Programs at Open Society Foundations, rightly articulated that the present financial system was originally designed under assumptions of permanent inequality, with clear roles for “center” and “periphery.” This paradigm, no longer tenable, demands a complete reform, not cosmetic adjustments.
The Debt Crisis: Beyond Liquidity to Structural Reform
At the heart of Africa’s position for Seville, Spain must be the recognition that debt crises faced by African nations are not merely liquidity issues. Instead, they are deep-rooted structural and wealth crises resulting from systemic inequities. The Common Framework developed by the G20 has notably failed. Africa must champion a UN Framework Convention on Sovereign Debt, embedding principles of responsible lending, borrower rights, and genuine multilateral accountability mechanisms.
The Exclusion of African Voices in Debt Negotiations
Jason Braganza from AFRODAD stressed that the current debt restructuring approaches have failed Africa fundamentally. These processes, dominated by creditor institutions like the IMF, draw off vital public funds away from healthcare, education, and infrastructure into debt repayments. Seville must be the platform where Africa decisively argues for a debt resolution framework anchored in equity, transparency, and genuine partnership.
International Tax Cooperation: Reclaiming Democratic Space
Another critical dimension is international tax cooperation. Historically marginalized in global tax rule-making dominated by OECD countries, African states lose an estimated $89 billion annually through illicit financial flows and aggressive tax avoidance. Africa’s push for a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation represents not just an economic necessity but a reclaiming of democratic space and equitable representation in global economic governance.
The conclusions of the recent Summit of the Future reinforced this call by endorsing the establishment of a more inclusive, effective, and transparent global tax governance framework. Member States recognized the inadequacies of the current OECD-centered system and agreed to prioritize negotiations toward a United Nations Tax Convention. This shift offers Africa a vital opportunity to push for rules that ensure fair taxation of multinational corporations, address harmful tax competition, and guarantee that every country, regardless of size or economic power, has an equal seat at the decision-making table. For Africa, the road to Seville is not just about advocating for reform; it is about securing a transformative, legally binding mechanism that can reverse systemic revenue losses and reinforce the continent’s capacity for sustainable development.
Strengthening Domestic Resource Mobilization in Africa
Strengthening domestic resource mobilization (DRM) in Africa is a crucial pillar for building sustainable, self-reliant economies. African governments must invest in modernizing their tax systems to ensure efficiency, transparency, and the capacity to capture revenues from rapidly evolving sectors such as the digital economy. This includes implementing fair and progressive taxation, combating illicit financial flows, and strengthening regulatory frameworks that close loopholes exploited by multinational corporations. By improving domestic revenue collection, African countries can significantly reduce their dependence on external financing and debt, thereby reclaiming greater fiscal sovereignty to fund health, education, and infrastructure projects.
However, strengthening DRM cannot be confined to national reforms alone. Global financial rules must also evolve to support African countries’ efforts. As Mwila Mkosa from the Zambian mission to the UN emphasized, the international tax framework must be reformed to create an enabling environment for African states to effectively mobilize their domestic resources. This includes addressing harmful tax competition, reforming unfair global trade practices, and ensuring that African countries have an equitable voice in setting global financial and tax standards. At Seville, Africa must press for concrete commitments that bridge national reforms with international cooperation, ensuring that domestic resource mobilization becomes a genuine driver of inclusive and sustainable development
Rethinking Private Finance in Development
The upcoming FFD4 must critically address the role of private finance. The previous “billions to trillions” narrative, heavily reliant on private sector financing without adequate oversight, has proved largely illusory. Africa’s position should advocate for private finance to operate under robust governance frameworks that prioritize socio-economic transformation over narrow profit-driven outcomes.
Reimagining Multilateralism: Beyond the Status Quo
A consistent theme emerging from these discussions was the need to reimagine multilateralism, not to preserve a flawed status quo but to fundamentally redesign it. As Brian Kagoro aptly put it, “the world we want to save has not yet been born.” Africa must advocate for multilateral frameworks that genuinely reflect principles of equality, transparency, and mutual accountability.
We need concrete, Actionable Commitments at Seville
The outcomes from Seville must move beyond ambitious language to concrete, actionable commitments backed by accountability frameworks. Seville must differ from previous summits by producing commitments specific enough to allow for tangible monitoring and public accountability.
Africa stands at a crossroads. We have an opportunity at Seville to assert not only our needs but our rights, our right to fair participation, our right to equitable economic structures, and our right to control our developmental futures. The moment is ready for bold, strategic, and unified action. True reform is not merely about changing systems but about fundamentally shifting power dynamics. Africa’s call must be clear: reform of the global financial architecture is an urgent demand for justice, equity, and sustainable development. The stakes are high, the time for incremental adjustments is past, and the moment for profound, transformative change is now.
As I conclude my learning visit to Kenya for the Ideas Festival, I leave inspired, challenged, and more determined than ever. Over two powerful days, I engaged with young people from various sectors, local experts, community leaders, and grassroots advocates , all united in their desire to tackle the deep and complex crises shaping their country and the African continent in general.
The Ideas Festival was sponsored by the Open Society Foundations and co-organised with partners, mostly youth organizations in Kenya.
From these vibrant conversations, one truth stood out: Africa’s future depends for a large part on its youth, their power, their creativity, and their resilience.
A Call to Reimagine Africa
In every session and exchange, the message was clear: the time for lamentation is over, the future must be claimed, it will not be given.
The festival was more than an event; it was a movement. One that places young people at the center of Africa’s response to the ongoing polycrisis, a convergence of economic instability, civic erosion, social inequality, and environmental challenges.
Rather than treating youth innovation as a distraction, we must embrace it as a catalyst for justice, economic development, and democratic accountability.
Throughout the festival, three guiding goals anchored our conversations:
Collaboration
Engagement
Shared Solidarity
Discussions highlighted some of the most pressing issues facing Kenya and the wider continent:
Economic hardship fueled by debt, poor policies, and corruption
Youth exclusion from political leadership and decision-making.
Rampant corruption: public resources are plundered while citizens suffer.
Shrinking civic space and rising police brutality, especially targeting the youth.
Public distrust in institutions and weak policy implementation.
Inequitable access to technology, education, and economic opportunity.
These challenges demand urgent, coordinated responses, not tomorrow, but today.
Youth Power in Action
Kenya’s youth are not waiting for permission to lead change. One standout example was the recent youth-led protests that successfully reversed a controversial tax bill. This was a vivid demonstration of civic engagement and people power in action.
Across the country, young people are using technology, art, and collective action to demand accountability, amplify marginalised voices, and push for change. They are innovating not only in the tech space but also in reimagining advocacy and governance.
And yet, we must go further. There’s a critical need to:
Ensure equitable access to technology and innovation.
Integrate AI into education so young people are not left behind.
Build digital and civic infrastructure that reflects African realities.
Strengthen inter-African connectivity, not just internationally, but within the continent itself.
“Africa must learn to play the long game, building systems that serve generations, not just political cycles“
7 Ideas to Address the African Polycrisis
From these dialogues I retained 7 key areas where urgent, transformative action is needed:
1. Political and Civic Inclusion
Dismantle systemic barriers to youth leadership.
Promote civic education and access to digital participation tools.
End the myth that young people lack experience.
2. Economic Justice & Reform
Push for inclusive, redistributive economic policies.
Demand social accountability in budgeting and public finance.
Advocate for debt justice and fair economic models.
3. Fighting Corruption
Support whistleblower protections and transparent information-sharing platforms
Strengthen regional anti-corruption frameworks.
Call for a Pan-African debt audit and accountability mechanism.
4. Innovation to service development
Fund and elevate youth-led solutions grounded in local contexts.
Move away from copy-paste Western models in favor of culturally-rooted innovation.
5. Intergenerational Solidarity
Encourage mentorship between senior leaders and youth.
Document and share knowledge to build lasting leadership structures.
6. Funding the Change
Rethink funding models to include solidarity economies, regional funds, and domestic resource mobilization rooted in integrity.
7- Deliberately invest in industrialization
Avoid over-reliant on raw commodity exports. Industrialization will help diversify economies by building value chains, reducing vulnerability to global price shocks
Strengthening Intra-African Trade. Make the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) at play
A industrial base fuels research, development, and tech transfer, key to building Africa’s competitiveness in the global economy.
In conclusion
The discussions in Kenya reminded me of what’s possible when we listen to young people, not as a demographic box to check, but as co-creators of the continent’s future. They are not just tomorrow’s leaders; they are today’s disruptors, builders, and visionaries.
My 7-Point Forecasts and Analysis of the Continent’s Political, Social, and Economic Landscapes.
We have just entered 2025! As we move into the mid-2020s, several indicators suggest that Africa is on the verge of a transformative era, provided the continent is effectively managed and stakeholders make the right choices. However, the year 2025—and likely the years to follow—also presents a range of challenges and uncertainties.
As I always do at the beginning of each year, I would like to share some reflections on the major opportunities and challenges our continent, its people, and institutions may face in 2025 and beyond. I will also share key upcoming/influencing moments to prepare for.
Inequality, conflicts and insecurity, youth and unemployment, migration, debt, development financing, electoral democracy, civic space, free movement of people, China, the BRICS, the new Trump presidency, etc. will occupy the policy and political debates and the daily life of Africans. Africans will expect much from the African Union with its new leadership and its so-called improved structure for a faster implementation of the Agenda 2063. Still, the regional economic communities will have increased responsibilities as they continue their difficult discussion on their scope of intervention, subsidiarity, and complementarity with the continental body.
With its 54 countries (55 AU member states) rich in diversity, culture, and resources, the continent will be playing an increasingly pivotal role in the global landscape.
Politically, Africa will continue witnessing waves of movements and civic engagements, mostly by young people demanding reforms, accountability, better governance, and better life conditions. In many countries, leaders will continue struggling to navigate pressing domestic demands and international pressures.
Socially, with a population expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2025, the youth bulge presents both opportunities and challenges. Employment will be a critical area of focus as young people demand opportunities to fulfill their potential. Additionally, issues related to social justice and human rights will continue to resonate.
Economically, Africa will need to speed on capitalizing on its immense potential to drive growth and innovation. The continent is rich in the most needed natural resources today. The deployment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a significant step towards economic integration and collaboration. 2025 may bring more progress in implementing the AfCFTA as African nations understand the importance of diversifying their economies and reducing dependency on external markets.
In 2025, African countries will enhance green mineral processing fueled by the aspirations to maximize the benefits of the extractive industries and leverage robust renewable energy resources. Mineral-rich countries will seek new partnerships to advance their value-addition objectives. This trend needs to be supported.
Given the ongoing global geopolitical trends, African countries will likely enhance their positions and secure more representation in global platforms, with the South African presidency of the G20, the African Union’s full membership of the group, as well as the inclusion of Ethiopia and Egypt in the BRICS.
Tensions between France and Francophone African countries that started with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso will likely escalate as more francophone countries reassess their historical ties with the former colonial power. As global power dynamics evolve, many Francophone African countries are increasingly looking toward new partners beyond France, including China, Russia, and other emerging economies seeking alternative pathways for development, trade, and security, leading to a gradual disillusionment with France as the primary partner.
Pressed by various actors, South Africa’s G20 Presidency launched a Cost of Capital Commission to investigate factors hindering low- and middle-income countries from accessing affordable capital. South Africa’s presidency presents a unique opportunity to enhance the continent’s development priorities on the global stage. The debt crisis in developing countries has escalated to critical levels. In Africa, public debt soared by 240% between 2008 and 2022, resulting in many nations allocating more resources to debt interest payments than to healthcare. This scenario hampers their capacity to invest in sustainable development and climate resilience.
By examining the trends, challenges, and opportunities that lie ahead, my aim in sharing these analyses at the beginning of the years has always been to provide a roadmap for policymakers, CSOs, philanthropies, businesses, and other stakeholders to navigate the complexities of Africa’s evolving landscape.
1/ Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty
Despite some economic growth and impressive resilience, Africa’s structural transformation will likely still be inconsistent in 2025.
According to the African Development Bank, growth in Africa is expected to increase only to around 4.3 percent in 2025. But given that economic growth does not automatically and immediately impact poverty reduction, the continent’s most challenging task is to ensure that the products of growth are distributed fairly and that they are no longer used to widen the gap between rich and poor, knowing that this is an important source of conflict.
Africa now has good reasons to invest in modernized agriculture, encourage and sustain productivity, and, of course, increase cultivable lands. This will have the threefold advantage of meeting the food needs of our people, creating jobs, and diversifying the economy. It will also promote regional trade among African countries, taking all the advantages from the AfCFTA.
Funding challenges will remain as African governments continue to face financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and looming debt repayments. To adapt to these challenges, in addition to the urgent need to reform the Global Financial Architecture, African countries should deploy internal structural reforms to diversify funding sources and their economies. The fight against illicit financial flows (IFF) should be intensified, as progress here will catalyze more fiscal space for governments.
Trade/AGOA: As the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its expiration in September 2025, the uncertainty regarding its renewal presents significant challenges for investment in key sectors like textiles, agriculture, and the automotive industry. AGOA has played a crucial role in facilitating trade and economic development between the United States and eligible sub-Saharan African countries by providing duty-free access to U.S. markets for a range of goods. However, as negotiations around its renewal progress, it is essential for the continent to secure a better deal. So, should AGOA renewal be placed on the agenda, the African side should advocate for a comprehensive review and enhancement of the agreement to ensure its effectiveness in the current landscape, particularly in light of the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Here are key elements to consider:
Alignment of Trade Policy, including harmonizing regulations and standards across the participating countries to facilitate smoother trade flows between U.S. and African markets
Regional Value Chains to promote the development of regional value chains in Africa, allowing countries to collaborate on producing goods that meet AGOA requirements while leveraging the strengths and resources of multiple countries within the AfCFTA framework.
Specific Support for SMEs and Startups: Both AGOA and AfCFTA seek to foster inclusive economic growth, and reforms could include dedicated support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Creating programs that assist SMEs in meeting export standards and accessing financing would bolster their capabilities to participate in global trade.
Trade Facilitation Initiatives: Integrating trade facilitation measures from AfCFTA into AGOA can streamline customs procedures and reduce trade barriers. This could include the adoption of technology in customs operations and cross-border trade facilitation measures that are consistent with AfCFTA protocols. Revisions to AGOA could also encourage partnerships between U.S. firms and African businesses participating in AfCFTA. Such collaborations can drive investment, innovation, and technology transfer, ultimately benefiting both economies.
2/ African Union Theme of 2025: “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations”
Reparations, encompassing reparatory justice for historical crimes and mass atrocities committed against Africans and people of African descent, have consistently been integral to the full decolonization process advocated by the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) and now the African Union (AU) since its establishment in 1963. Over the past three decades, the African Union has made numerous decisions and supported initiatives aimed at championing justice and advocating for reparations to Africans. It has also focused on the restitution of cultural artifacts, relics, and heritage that were pillaged during colonization and enslavement, working toward returning these items to the African countries from which they were taken. The Assembly of the Union decided that the theme of the Year for 2025 will be ‘‘Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.’’. Leaders have also designated the reparations for transatlantic enslavement, colonialism, and apartheid as a Flagship Issue and Project of the Union.
To enhance advocacy for an African common position on reparations and forge a united front on reparations for Global Africa, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana was appointed as the African Union Leader on Advancing the Cause of Justice and Payment of Reparations to Africans. This appointment may be transferred to the new president of Ghana, John Mahama.
The upcoming AU Summit in February 2025 will likely adopt a roadmap for implementing the theme on the continent and in the diaspora.
3/ Human Rights, Governance and Electoral Democracy: Unfinished Business
Liberties and freedoms, civic and democratic space, justice, and the protection of civilians are still in trouble on the continent, mostly because regional and continental institutions remain silent.
Africa must also find a way out of the vicious circle of election credibility and the needed political alternation in power. Without this, our continent will continue its progressive descent into hell, thus undermining any prospect of economic development.
Change at the helm of power is a crucial aspect of the democratic game, particularly in contexts where institutions remain weak, and the electoral system is susceptible to manipulation. We need to keep discussing the issue of limiting presidential terms, as this is often the only effective way to remove leaders who persistently cling to power in the context of flawed elections. Currently, only a handful of African countries exemplify this democratic principle, including Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, and South Africa.
4/The African Union: A New Start?
The current leadership of the African Union Commission will be largely renewed during the February 2025 Summit. The current Chairperson, Moussa Faki from Chad, the Deputy Chairperson, Dr. Monique Nsanzabaganwa from Rwanda, and most of the commissioners should hand over power to newly elected officials for a four-year term.
In addition, Angolan President João Lourenço is likely to be appointed Chairperson of the AU for 2025 to replace the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Ghazouani.
Angolan diplomacy, historically engaged in resolving continental conflicts, particularly in the Central African Republic and the Great Lakes region, has a golden opportunity to impact the continent.
President João Lourenço has several advantages. First, his role as a mediator between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, to help end the conflict between the two neighboring countries provides him with experience and credibility. Second, his ability to maintain good relations with global powers—such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union—as well as with regional leaders, including India, Brazil, and South Africa, is essential for ensuring that Africa is given a greater presence in international forums.
5/ Peace and Security:
Peace and security remain a serious prerequisite for the continent’s development and progress and the well-being of its people.
Africa has not made enough progress in this area in recent years. In many cases, such as in Sudan, our institutions have not acted seriously on early warning signs that were quite visible. What our regional institutions need are courage and the political will to cut with old methods. For example, the leadership of the African Union Commission must be able to speak out loudly whenever national leaders are violating our shared values and challenge them. That is why we need strong and audible leaders at the AU Commission.
The current state of conflict on the African continent is marked by complex and interlinked dynamics. Major conflict situations are interconnected with sub-national issues across the five geographical regions, resulting in conflicts that are either spreading into new areas, involving an increasing number of actors, witnessing a rise in fatalities, or deteriorating overall due to the escalation of their root causes.
Regional crises will continue impeding development efforts. Wars, armed conflicts, and extreme weather conditions have forced millions to flee their homes.
As reported by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), approximately 35 million Africans were living as refugees or displaced persons within their own countries at the end of 2024.
Additionally, the convergence of global megatrends such as climate change, energy transition, and migration intensifies the already intricate conflict landscape in Africa. Climate change poses a significant threat to the continent, manifesting in rising temperatures, altered weather patterns, and environmental degradation. These challenges jeopardize agricultural productivity and food security while exacerbating existing regional vulnerabilities.
The ongoing shift toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources offers both potential benefits and challenges for Africa. While this transition can help reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change, it necessitates considerable investment and infrastructure development. The lack of reliable energy access further deepens inequalities and can lead to social unrest.
At present, each region of Africa faces a distinct combination of these challenges, greatly influencing the continent’s conflict-related security landscape in unique ways.
Major Conflicts & Risky Situations to Watch Closely in Africa
In 2025, Africa will still have to manage the following hot spots:
Sudan: Sudan continues to face internal conflicts and political instability. I hoped that Sudan’s civil war would come to an end in 2024. Unfortunately, international mediation efforts have not succeeded. With ongoing support from foreign backers, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have resumed intense fighting in Khartoum, Al Jazirah State, and around Al Fashir in Darfur. In December, the Sudanese government accused Chad of having authorized the firing of Emirati drones from its soil and towards Sudan. The army, which is fighting the rebels of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemetti, now believes that N’Djamena is, through an alliance with the United Arab Emirates, directly engaged against it in the civil war, and in particular in the Darfur region. Looking ahead to 2025, international mediation efforts will advance little unless the current stalemate is resolved.
Sahel Region: Over the last decade, the region has been shaken by extremist uprisings and military coups. Three Sahelian nations, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, are now ruled by military leaders who have taken power by force on the pledge of providing more security to citizens. The Security crisis is complex, and the situation is worsening with record numbers of attacks and civilians killed both by Islamic fighters and government forces.
Ethiopia: Ethiopia has been grappling with various conflicts, notably the conflict in the Tigray region, where fighting between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and government forces has led to a humanitarian crisis, including mass displacement and reports of human rights abuses. Ethnic tensions and unresolved grievances in other parts of the country also contribute to the ongoing conflict.
DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo’s complex and long-standing conflict situation is a pending concern for the continent’s stability. Various armed conflicts, including clashes between rebel groups, inter-communal violence, and attacks by armed militias, have plagued the country. The conflicts are often fueled by competition over natural resources, such as minerals, leading to violence and instability in the region. The eastern part of the DRC, particularly in the provinces of Kivu, continues to be a hotspot for violence in the fight between the government and the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23. This is leading to widespread casualty and displacement of civilians, human rights abuses, and a humanitarian crisis.
Ethiopia and Egypt: Their relationship has been strained since 2011 when Ethiopia started building and filling the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a project that Egypt sees as a significant risk to its water and food security. The situation worsened further as Egypt strengthened its relationship with Ethiopia’s competitor, Somalia. In addition to sending troops, weaponry, and ammunition to Somalia, Egypt plans to conduct joint military exercises with the country. Egypt’s warming relationship with Somalia has raised concerns in Addis Ababa, as Ethiopia disagrees with Mogadishu over a maritime agreement that Ethiopia recently reached with Somaliland.
Silencing the Guns by 2030: Beyond the Slogan: Unfortunately, this campaign, with an initial deadline set for 2020 and then moved to 2030, remains a slogan without serious action to realize it by tackling the root causes of the conflicts.
Efforts to silence the guns must extend beyond rhetoric; it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity of African institutions to proactively prevent conflicts in a more comprehensive and timely manner rather than relying solely on reactive conflict resolution strategies.
Conflicts across the continent emerge from various structural vulnerabilities, including environmental challenges, competition for access to and the illegal extraction of natural resources, social unrest driven by poor and unaccountable governance, the proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons, and the rise of religious radicalization.
6/Prioritizing Socioeconomic Development Over Military Solutions
Achieving sustainable peace in Africa necessitates addressing the root causes of conflicts, which are frequently tied to poverty, inequality, limited access to education, and social injustices. By prioritizing socio-economic development rather than military solutions, African countries can create a foundation for enduring peace and prosperity for their citizens. It is essential to invest in sectors capable of driving economic growth and generating opportunities for the youth. The continent can establish an environment conducive to long-term stability and prosperity by directing resources toward these areas and implementing supportive policies.
Agriculture, the backbone of many African economies, offers significant potential for stimulating economic growth and creating employment opportunities for young people. With its vast arable land and an expanding population, Africa can harness agriculture to enhance food security, increase job prospects, and foster sustainable development. By investing in modern farming techniques, expanding market access, and supporting smallholder farmers, the continent can unlock the full potential of its agricultural sector and empower youth in rural communities.
Adding Value to Africa’s Strategic Critical Mineral Resources
Many conflicts on the continent are driven by the exploitation of natural resources. Therefore, African nations must prioritize taking control of and adding value to these vital resources. The strategic minerals in Africa—such as gold, diamonds, cobalt, platinum, and rare earth elements—are crucial for modern industries, including technology, green energy, and infrastructure. However, the extraction and trade of these resources have frequently been plagued by corruption and exploitation, resulting in instability and human suffering in various regions. African countries must assert their sovereignty over their mineral resources to disrupt this cycle of conflict and foster sustainable peace. By establishing transparent and accountable governance systems, countries can prevent the illicit exploitation of their minerals and ensure equitable distribution of benefits among their citizens. This approach will not only address the root causes of conflicts but also promote economic development and social advancement.
Pan-African institutions must work together to enhance understanding of the challenges within the mining sector and align with the African Mining Vision (AMV) objectives. Accelerating research and data collection to identify the key obstacles hindering the implementation of the AMV is also important. The continent must invest in building the capacity of stakeholders in the mining sector to tackle these challenges effectively and encourage collaboration among industry participants, government agencies, and civil society to develop innovative solutions for sustainable mining growth.
National governments should be empowered to implement policies encouraging value addition to mineral and agricultural products.
7/Africa and the Rest of the World
Africa has everything to gain by continuing to diversify its economic partners. The spectacular positioning of China and other new partners in Africa has openly changed the balance of power with traditional partners and reoriented the African economy and development process. But the continent must keep its eyes wide open. Africa’s partnerships (old and new) must contribute to the realization of our agendas 2030 and 2063, and we must ensure that social, human rights and equity standards are absolutely respected in the pursuit of these partnerships. Non-state actors have a major watchdog role to play here.
I do not anticipate a significant emphasis on Africa policy from the incoming Trump administration. However, the United States cannot afford to overlook Africa, as the continent is at a critical juncture that presents numerous opportunities for both economic and diplomatic engagement. With a population approaching 1.5 billion and an economy that has shown resilience amid global challenges, Africa is emerging as a key player on the world stage.
Key Moments in 2025 (This section will be updated as new events are planned)
African Union Summit & election of new AU leadership: 12-16 February 2025
50th Anniversary of ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States will celebrate its fiftieth anniversary in May 2025, at a moment when three founding members—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—announced their withdrawal from the organization in January 2023. They have declared their decision to be irrevocable, despite attempts at mediation, and have subsequently established a new entity known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Their official withdrawal from ECOWAS is set to take effect on January 29, 2025, in accordance with the organization’s regulations. The 50th anniversary of ECOWAS offers an opportunity to rethink and improve the mandates and working methods of the subregional body.
The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development will be held in Seville, Spain, from 30 June to 3 July 2025. The conference will address new and emerging issues and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals and support reform of the international financial architecture.
Elections: Unlike 2024, 2025 is expected to be more stable, with fewer major elections, mostly in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tanzania, along with the promised end of transition in Gabon and Guinea. Here is the election calendar for 2025 by EISA. Further analysis of Africa’s upcoming elections can be found here.
Artificial Intelligence Summit in Kigali: On April 3 and 4, 2025, Rwanda will host the first Global AI Summit in Africa in Kigali. This event is organized by the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Rwanda and the World Economic Forum. With the belief that AI could contribute $2.9 trillion to the African economy by 2030, the summit aims to explore economic opportunities for the African workforce. It will bring together global leaders, government ministers, CEOs, civil society representatives, startups, investors, and international organizations to shape Africa’s role in the global AI economy.
COP, Women’s Rights: 2025 will also mark the 10th anniversary of the COP21 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Goals and the 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action on Women’s Rights.
On 10 June 2024, I participated in the Spring Meeting of the Paris Peace Forum hosted by the prestigious Mohamed VI University in Benguerir, Morocco, under the theme “Fair Transition,” with highlights on 1/ climate and development, 2/ agriculture and nutrition, 4/ energy and transition minerals, and 4/ global health. The Forum has brought together governments, universities, research bodies, civil society, and the private sector.
In addition to participating in the general plenary discussions, I spoke alongside global heavyweight experts, politicians, academics, and practitioners at the launch of a new initiative called the Agricultural Transition Lab for African Solution (ATLAS).
ATLAS will advocate for a globally shared vision of a sustainable African agricultural transformation based on a better understanding of African needs, breaking away from North and South divides, and seeing agriculture and climate as partners rather than adversaries.
Here are my key takeaways from various sessions, group discussions, and bilateral engagements during the very packed day of the forum:
A green energy transition that meets the needs of developing countries and is paired with imperatives of poverty reduction.
The transition towards cleaner and more renewable energy sources should balance the well-being of the planet and the development and prosperity of poor people who contribute the least to environmental degradation. To tap into the existing abundant source of green energy, there is a need for heavy global solidarity. International partnerships and cooperation are essential in supporting Africa’s energy transition. By sharing knowledge and expertise, mobilizing financial resources, and fostering technology transfer, the global community can help accelerate the shift towards a more sustainable energy future for all.
Agriculture, food and nutrition
Agriculture and nutrition are indispensable prerequisites for Africa’s development journey.
African food security is key in the face of a rapidly growing population and the ever-growing threat of climate change: 60% of Africans face food insecurity, 61% of the African population lives on wages below $2/day, and 2/3 of arable land is at risk of desertification. There is an imperative to transform Africa’s agricultural sector into a dynamic, modern, and sustainable engine of growth. Agriculture remains the backbone of many African economies, employing a significant portion of the population and contributing substantially to GDP.
Investing in Africa’s agriculture should go beyond just increasing crop yields; it also entails fostering a holistic approach to food security/sovereignty and nutrition. As Africa seeks to chart a course towards sustainable development, it is imperative that agriculture and nutrition remain central to the continent’s agenda. From empowering smallholder farmers and agribusinesses to scaling up nutrition interventions and promoting dietary diversity, the possibilities for transformative change are vast and promising for the continent.
From extractives to wealth creation in Africa
African countries should move from exporting mineral resources to prioritizing value addition and industrialization to capture more of the value from these resources. Africa can boost job creation, foster innovation, and drive economic growth by processing raw materials locally and developing higher value-adding industries. This shift towards industrialization is integral to promoting sustainable development and reducing Africa’s traditional role as a mere supplier of raw materials.
Adding value to natural resources in Africa has the potential to promote entrepreneurship and support small and medium-sized enterprises as engines of economic growth. African governments and development partners should boost initiatives to provide financing, training, and mentorship to entrepreneurs, enabling them to create innovative businesses that contribute to job creation and economic prosperity.
Africa needs to plan a phase-out of ODA.
It is undeniable that Official Development Assistance (ODA) has been instrumental in catalyzing progress. Aid flows have facilitated the building of schools and hospitals, the provision of clean water and sanitation, and the implementation of crucial social welfare programs. However, there are compelling reasons for African nations to consider planning a phase-out of aid dependency.
In the face of ongoing global development, there is growing consensus among experts that a shift towards self-reliance and sustainable development is paramount for Africa’s long-term growth and prosperity. Aid trap will cause the continent to miss out on the numerous existing opportunities to take off. Aid is becoming more and more unpredictable and subject to geopolitical agendas, making it an unreliable and unsustainable source of funding for development projects. This will hinder long-term planning and result in fragmented and short-term solutions that fail to address the root causes of poverty and underdevelopment in Africa.
Phasing out from aid can foster accountability and good governance. When governments are not solely reliant on external donors for funding, they are encouraged to be more transparent and responsive to their citizens’ needs. This shift can lead to more efficient and effective resource use, reducing the risk of corruption and mismanagement that often plague aid-funded projects. Transitioning towards self-reliance can stimulate domestic innovation and entrepreneurship as countries are forced to find locally-driven solutions to their development challenges. This can lead to the creation of sustainable businesses and industries that generate jobs and economic growth, ultimately reducing poverty and improving livelihoods.
Approximately 5,000 delegates participated in the recently concluded 50th Annual Meetings of the African Development Bank (AfDB), held from May 27 to 31, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya.
The Annual Meetings brought together the Bank Group’s governors representing 54 African countries and 27 non-African shareholders, as well as heads of state, researchers, experts, representatives of international bodies, the private sector, and civil society actors. They engaged in discussions and shared insights and strategies centered around the event’s theme, “Driving Africa’s Transformation: The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture.” The event garnered coverage from 200 media outlets.
Our Team from the ONE Campaign hosted a side event on the upcoming replenishment of the African Development Fund, the concessional window of the AfDB, which plays a critical role in providing financing and technical assistance to low-income countries in Africa.
Here are my 10 key takeaways from the Bank’s Annual Meetings:
Africa is at a pivotal juncture in its development path, facing a series of interconnected crises that threaten the progress achieved in recent decades. Addressing these challenges necessitates a comprehensive financial approach rooted in global solidarity to effectively meet urgent needs.
With a burgeoning population, abundant natural resources, and a youthful demographic, the continent boasts significant potential for economic growth and prosperity. However, unlocking this potential demands substantial financial investments and strategic planning
1- Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM) is crucial for Africa’s development. Enhancing efforts to mobilize domestic resources, including addressing Illicit Financial Flows. Every year, more than $89 billion leaves the African continent as Illicit Financial Flows, according to the UNCTAD. These are movements of money and assets across borders that are illegal in source, transfer, or use. It includes illicit capital that is getting out of the continent, tax and commercial practices like wrong invoicing of trade shipments, and criminal activities such as illegal markets, corruption, or theft. In addition, African countries should prioritize modernizing their tax systems. Many African countries offer overly generous tax incentives that need reevaluation.
2- Reform: The international financial architecture needs urgent reforms to becomemore responsive, fairer, and resourceful. By the United Nations’ definition, the international financial architecture refers to the governance arrangements that safeguard the stability and function of the global monetary and financial systems. It has evolved over time, often in an ad hoc fashion, driven by the policy preferences of large economies (…).
The ecosystem of the International financial architecture that needs to be thoroughly reviewed includes but is not limited to:
The Banks: IMF, WB, Regional Development Banks, etc.
The Markets: capital markets, stock markets, etc.
Credit Rating Agencies
International Tax Regime
3- Increasing concessional financing is essential to addressing African nations’ ambitious goals and priorities and tackling global challenges. Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) must intensify their efforts. The upcoming replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA) and the African Development Fund presents opportunities to bolster financial support.
4- Private Sector: Effective private sector engagement is vital to mobilize the trillions required for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Africa’s Agenda 2063, the Africa we want. MDBs alone cannot bridge the financing gap.
5 – Value Addition: Emphasizing value addition over raw material exports is key to economic prosperity in Africa because exporting raw materials often leads to impoverishment. Exporting raw materials is a highway to poverty. Value Addition is a gateway to prosperity.
6- Credit Rating: The global financial rating system must be fairer. A fairer rating could save Africa $75 billion a year in debt payments. Credit ratings impact the development trajectories of African countries by defining the cost of development financing. They also influence how much development partners can support critical investments on the continent.
AfDB is committed to supporting the creation of an African credit rating agency, not to replace or compete with existing agencies but to provide an alternative approach that takes into account contexts and realities on the continent.
7- Natural Capital: Africa’s natural capital is undervalued in the current calculation of GDPs. The AfDB committed to support the reevaluation of African countries’ GDP by incorporating natural capital considerations
8- AfDB Capital: The AfDB Board of Governors approved $117 billion of callable capital, bringing the total Bank’s capital from $201 Billion to $318 Billion.
Kenya is the first mover in replenishing the Africa Development Fund in 2025, with a pledge of $20 million.
9- Obstacles: Conflicts and political instability significantly hinder Africa’s progress and investment attractiveness. The lack of security increases the level of risk perceived by investors. Addressing these challenges is crucial as the continent’s youthful population continues to outpace job opportunities, leading to migration in search of better prospects. Corruption is surely the other obstacle that the continent needs to fight by all means.
10- New strategy: The African Development Bank Group introduced its Ten-Year Strategy 2024–2033, which focuses on investing in Africa’s youth and promoting gender equality, climate resilience, stability in fragile states, and good governance.
To achieve these objectives, the bank will deploy the following operational priorities.
Light up and power Africa: Promote universal access to modern and affordable energy.
Feed Africa: Ensure food security through agricultural transformation.
Industrialize Africa: Catalyze manufacturing as a critical driver of job creation.
Integrate Africa: Foster regional integration and value chains for a more cohesive economy.
Improve the quality of life: Enhance living standards, particularly for women and youth.
On the road to the upcoming Summit of the Future #SOTF, which will be held in September this year at the United Nations in New York, I was asked to share my thoughts about the role of Africa in the “Pact for the Future” that will be discussed and hopefully adopted at the said global Summit.
The discussion, hosted by the African Union’s ECOSOCC, happened virtually today.
After studying the 20-page zero draft of the Pact for the Future, with its 148 paragraphs, I can say that it is a comprehensive and well-elaborated document. I strongly recommend you read it fully. As it is a zero draft, it is open for input from various stakeholders before the September summit.
From financing sustainable development to international peace and security to science, technology, innovation, and digital cooperation, from the needed improvement of global governance to the urgent reform of the international financial institutions for better and increased resources, the draft of the Pact for the Future seems to be a completed memorandum to fix our world, save People, and save the Planet!
The question I have to answer now is, what should be Africa’s role in all of these?
Here are my 3 key ideas:
1/ First, Africa should have better representation at the Table.
This is critical for a meaningful contribution of the continent, in resolving the global issues mentioned in the draft of the Pact for the Future. Africa continues to be underrepresented in key international institutions and decision-making processes. This lack of representation not only hinders Africa’s ability to shape global policies actively but also perpetuates a cycle of inequality and imbalance in international relations. Africa can indeed play an impactful role in global affairs and can make significant contributions to addressing pressing global issues. Whether it is within international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund or at the UN Security Council, a fairer representation is essential to making things right!
Elevating Africa in global governance is not just a matter of fairness or justice; it should be seen as a strategic imperative for building a more stable, prosperous, and sustainable world for all. By giving space to Africa’s diverse voices and experiences, we can create a more inclusive and equitable global order that reflects the richness and diversity of our planet.
2/ We need to shift the current perspective on Africa’s role. The Continent should be seen as an important part of the solution, not just a warehouse or a reservoir of natural resources.
The continent is bringing demography & human resources. Africa represents 1.4 billion people, which is about 17% of the global population. Most of them are young, intelligent, dynamic, and willing to participate in the development process. This population will rise to 25% by 2050. The continent has a vibrant workforce and is experiencing a surge in innovation and entrepreneurship. By supporting and collaborating with African innovators, the global community can benefit from their transformative solutions.
In addition, Africa would bring wealth and natural resources. Africa is one of the world’s richest geographical regions in terms of its endowment with natural resources, with 60% of the world’s renewable energy assets and more than 30% of the minerals key to renewable and low-carbon technologies. Africa has the largest unused arable land, a heavy green energy potential, and other strategic, critical materials. From its vast mineral deposits to its fertile agricultural lands, the continent has much to offer. With proper management and sustainable practices, Africa’s resources can help address global challenges such as food security, water scarcity, and renewable energy.
One of the key global issues that Africa would greatly help address is climate change. Besides mitigating the impact of climate change, Africa also would contribute significantly to global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
3/ My 3rd & last point is more about looking inward…Charity needs to start at Home
It would not be enough for the continent to sit at the table; Africa needs to clean its own house and ensure that, we resolve some of the problems that are in our capacity to fix.
We know them:
We call them shared values, and we adopted them at the AU, ECOWAS, SADC, EAC, etc
We call them accountability, peer review
We call them good governance, the rule of law;
We name them solidarity, fair sharing of national resources, and diversity management.
If we work seriously on them, Africa will be more apt/ready to play a meaningful role in the pact.
I would like to conclude by wondering if the simple discussion and adoption of the Pact for the Future will lead us to the promised land…
Whether at the UN, the African Union or the RECs… If only half of the various texts we have adopted have been implemented, I am sure we would have been at a different level…
So, what needs to be different now?
This is a question that you all can propose answers to, during the discussions.
What about a robust accountability mechanism for the realization of these commitments of the Pact for the future?
Assodesire 