On 23 November 2025, the people of Guinea-Bissau queued for hours under the sun to choose their next president and parliament. Three days later, on 26 November, before the National Electoral Commission could publish the results, armed actors moved: soldiers surrounded key institutions, claimed “total control” of the country and halted the electoral process at gunpoint. On 27 November, the military high command installed Major-General Horta Inta-a Na Man as “transitional president” for a one-year period, while the deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, was escorted into exile. Call it a “staged coup”, a “self-coup” or a “corrective operation”, the label is irrelevant. What matters is the result: in the decisive hours after a national vote, the people’s verdict was hijacked at gunpoint.
By 29 November 2025, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council had suspended Guinea-Bissau from all AU activities, and ECOWAS had likewise condemned the takeover, suspended the country and demanded that the armed forces return to barracks and allow the announcement of the 23 November election results. This is not a minor constitutional hiccup. It is a direct attack on the fundamental right of citizens to choose and change their leaders, and a warning shot to every fragile democracy on the continent. If Guinea-Bissau’s coup, staged or “real”, is allowed to stand, it will become the new manual for incumbents and generals who want to cling to power while pretending to respect elections.
Africa simply cannot afford that. Not today, when we urgently need to focus on debt, jobs, climate, education and health, not on endless elite games in fatigues and suits. The African Union, ECOWAS and international partners must therefore draw a clear red line: this coup is illegal, illegitimate and intolerable. The 23 November election results must be published in full, an international investigation must expose the authors and sponsors, and sanctions must be so sweeping and personal that every potential putschist across the continent thinks twice before touching a ballot box or a constitution.
Here is my suggested roadmap in 7 points, that regional, continental and global institutions could act on urgently:
1. Staged or “real”, a coup is a coup, and it must not stand
Whether the events in Guinea-Bissau are labelled a “staged coup”, a “self-coup”, or a classic military takeover is a distraction. The bottom line is simple: armed actors intervened in the middle of an electoral process, blocked the announcement of results, dismantled constitutional institutions and installed a new authority by force. That is the textbook definition of an Unconstitutional Change of Government.
Africa, regional organizations and international partners must treat it as such: no recognition, no normalization, no excuses. Any government produced by this operation is born outside the constitution and should be treated accordingly.
Any attempt to “renegotiate” or massage the outcome in back rooms is not mediation; it is a continuation of the coup by other means. Democracy is not a menu you edit after seeing the numbers.
At most, there can be a very short, one-off exit window for the Guinean putschists: if, within a few days, they restore the elected authorities, allow the full publication of results, release detainees and return to their barracks, they can be considered for exemption from sanctions and prosecution. Beyond that narrow window, however, there should be no deals, no soft landing and no second chances.
2. We need an international investigation and real accountability
Guinea-Bissau cannot move forward on denial and amnesia. A time-bound, independent international commission of inquiry is essential to identify all those responsible:
the uniformed officers who appeared on camera;
the civilians who planned, financed or blessed the operation;
and any foreign actors who enabled it.
This commission should be mandated jointly by the AU, ECOWAS and the UN, with:
strong investigative powers and access to financial records;
protection for witnesses and whistle-blowers;
a clear path to justice, at national, regional or, if necessary, international level.
Impunity is the oxygen of every new putsch. That oxygen must be cut off.
3. Africa has anti-coup norms, let us enforce them
The problem is not the law; it is the double standards. In some crises, suspension and sanctions are immediate and robust. In others, political convenience and geopolitical interests dilute the response. That inconsistency is one of today’s biggest coup enablers.
When putschists see that some regimes manage to negotiate their way to recognition, they learn the lesson. Guinea-Bissau must be the case where Africa finally proves that the rules apply to everyone, no matter the rank, the rhetoric or the foreign friends.
4. Sanctions: Travel bans, asset freezes and no safe havens
If Africa wants to stop coups, sanctions must hurt the right people, not the population. That means:
Continent-wide travel bans on all coup leaders, their immediate families and key civilian sponsors – covering every AU and REC member state, with coordinated lists shared in real time. No shopping in Johannesburg, no medical trips in Tunis, no quiet conferences in Nairobi or Addis while citizens sit under military rule.
Global travel bans aligned with the AU position, extending to Europe, the Americas, the Middle East and Asia. Putschists must know that any airport can become a point of arrest, not a transit lounge.
Comprehensive asset freezes, targeting:
bank accounts, companies and properties held by coup leaders and their associates;
front companies and proxies used to hide wealth, including assets registered in the name of spouses, relatives, business partners or shell firms. Where necessary, beneficial-ownership investigations should be launched to expose these networks.
A business blacklist: firms, lobbyists and political consultants who knowingly facilitate or profit from coup-born regimes should also face sanctions and exclusion from public contracts and international financing.
These measures must be automatic and coordinated: once the AU and ECOWAS determine that an Unconstitutional Change of Government has occurred, a standard sanctions package should be triggered within days, not debated for months. No more ad hoc bargaining, no more selective outrage.
5. Declare coups a serious crime with no prescription
Africa must also send a clear legal message: a coup is not just a political event; it is a crime, and one that should carry no statute of limitations.
National laws, the AU legal framework and REC protocols should recognize the orchestration or support of an Unconstitutional Change of Government as a serious offense, comparable to high-level corruption or grave violations of constitutional order.
Those responsible should remain permanently liable to prosecution, even after they leave office or flee abroad. Time should not wash away the crime.
Amnesty deals that shield coup leaders from accountability should be strictly limited and subject to continental scrutiny; they must not become the default escape route.
By declaring coups a crime with no prescription, Africa would send a simple signal: even if you outlast this sanctions cycle, the knock on the door can still come in five, ten or twenty years. There will be no safe retirement for those who gain power by breaking the constitutional order.
6. This is about Africa’s economic and social future
Every coup, whether dressed up as “correction”, “transition” or “staged drama”, is a tax on Africa’s future. It scares away investment, deepens debt distress, fuels capital flight, weakens institutions and diverts energy from the real work such as creating jobs and decent livelihoods, reforming economies and fixing broken tax and debt systems, investing in health, education and climate resilience.
Guinea-Bissau is a fragile country that cannot afford yet another cycle of elite games between politicians, generals and traffickers. But the same is true across the continent.
The path forward is clear:
ECOWAS and the AU must maintain suspension of Guinea-Bissau and refuse to recognize coup-born authorities.
The election results must be published in full, with international support.
An independent international investigation must establish the truth and trigger tough, personal sanctions travel bans, asset freezes and legal proceedings.
The AU and RECs must update the definition of coups, make sanctions automatic, and treat coups as crimes with no statute of limitations.
At this moment, Africa can no longer tolerate coups, in khaki or in suits, while a whole generation waits for economic opportunity and social justice. Guinea-Bissau is not only a national crisis; it is a continental test.
If Africa stands firm here, together with its regional economic communities and global partners, it will send a powerful message: the age of playing games with the people’s will is over, and those who try will pay a permanent price.
7. Constitutional term-limit manipulation is also a coup
One of the most urgent debates Africa must stop dodging is this: when a leader changes the constitution to stay in power indefinitely, is that not also a coup? The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance already gives us the answer. Article 23 is explicit that an Unconstitutional Change of Government includes any amendment or revision of the constitution or legal instruments that undermines the principles of democratic change of government.
In plain language, when incumbents abolish or reset term limits, rewrite electoral rules just before a vote, or redesign institutions so that alternation becomes impossible in practice, they are not “reforming” the system, they are seizing by legal means what generals seize by force of arms.
If we want citizens to take continental norms seriously, the African Union and Regional Economic Communities must say, clearly and publicly: unlimited term obtained by dismantling term limits is not more legitimate than a coup d’état, it is a constitutional coup. The same sanctions we demand for military putschists, suspension, travel bans, asset freezes and long-term political ineligibility, should also apply to leaders and coalitions that mutilate constitutions to rule for life. Otherwise, we send a disastrous message to African citizens: that the soldier who breaks the door with a gun is condemned, but the politician who quietly locks it from the inside is rewarded.
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When elections cease to be a moment of choice and become an instrument of control, democracy turns into theater and citizens, no longer believing in the script, start to write their own story in the streets. The unfolding crisis in Tanzania is another troubling chapter in Africa’s growing catalogue of democratic rituals without governance substance.
Tanzania, once hailed as a stable democracy in East Africa, is now facing its most serious political unrest in decades. The October 2025 elections, meant to reaffirm democratic legitimacy, instead exposed the fragility of the country’s institutions. Following a tightly controlled vote, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the overwhelming winner, some constituencies reporting absurd margins of 100,000 votes to less than 100 for the opposition. But beyond the numbers, the scenes on the ground tell a different story: cities under curfew, internet blackouts, and live ammunition fired at unarmed civilians.
Witnesses in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Mbeya describe a climate of fear and chaos. Human rights organizations indicate that hundred have been killed in just a few days, as security forces cracked down on protestors contesting what they see as an empty ritual of democracy. Lawyers, journalists, and opposition figures have either been silenced or disappeared.
Democracy Without Oxygen
Like Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania’s crisis is not merely electoral, it is structural. It reflects a pattern where regimes hold regular elections but hollow out the very foundations of democracy: accountability, pluralism, and citizen participation. The symptoms are familiar, youth unemployment, corruption, shrinking civic space, and the instrumentalization of state institutions for political survival. When people cannot breathe politically, repression becomes their air, and protest becomes their only language.
The government’s response, labeling demonstrators “criminals” and tightening its grip on digital communication, has only deepened the divide. Cutting the internet and silencing dissent does not restore order; it merely postpones reckoning. Tanzania’s young population, frustrated by joblessness and impunity, is no longer willing to watch in silence as its future is mortgaged to a small elite. As one activist put it, “There is no oxygen left, we can’t speak, we can’t tweet, we can’t hope.”
A Continental Warning
Tanzania’s turbulence is another call for Africa’s democratic institutions who still measure progress by the number of elections held rather than their integrity. Our continent is sliding into a dangerous normalization of managed democracy, where ballots replace bullets, but the outcomes are just as predetermined.
For us at the Open Society Foundations (OSF), guided by our unwavering commitment to promoting human rights, equity and justice across the world, this moment demands not just condemnation but deeper engagement, supporting those on the frontlines of civic courage, amplifying independent voices, and pressing for genuine institutional reforms that go beyond the façade of periodic voting. The crisis in Tanzania, like those in Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire, reminds us of that Africa’s democratic project will not be saved by rituals, but by renewal, rooted in justice, inclusion, and accountability. When citizens risk their lives to make their voices heard, the world cannot afford to look away. What is happening in Tanzania today is not just a national crisis; it is a mirror held up to a continent standing once again at a democratic crossroads.
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My 7-Point Forecasts and Analysis of the Continent’s Political, Social, and Economic Landscapes.
We have just entered 2025! As we move into the mid-2020s, several indicators suggest that Africa is on the verge of a transformative era, provided the continent is effectively managed and stakeholders make the right choices. However, the year 2025—and likely the years to follow—also presents a range of challenges and uncertainties.
As I always do at the beginning of each year, I would like to share some reflections on the major opportunities and challenges our continent, its people, and institutions may face in 2025 and beyond. I will also share key upcoming/influencing moments to prepare for.
Inequality, conflicts and insecurity, youth and unemployment, migration, debt, development financing, electoral democracy, civic space, free movement of people, China, the BRICS, the new Trump presidency, etc. will occupy the policy and political debates and the daily life of Africans. Africans will expect much from the African Union with its new leadership and its so-called improved structure for a faster implementation of the Agenda 2063. Still, the regional economic communities will have increased responsibilities as they continue their difficult discussion on their scope of intervention, subsidiarity, and complementarity with the continental body.
With its 54 countries (55 AU member states) rich in diversity, culture, and resources, the continent will be playing an increasingly pivotal role in the global landscape.
Politically, Africa will continue witnessing waves of movements and civic engagements, mostly by young people demanding reforms, accountability, better governance, and better life conditions. In many countries, leaders will continue struggling to navigate pressing domestic demands and international pressures.
Socially, with a population expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2025, the youth bulge presents both opportunities and challenges. Employment will be a critical area of focus as young people demand opportunities to fulfill their potential. Additionally, issues related to social justice and human rights will continue to resonate.
Economically, Africa will need to speed on capitalizing on its immense potential to drive growth and innovation. The continent is rich in the most needed natural resources today. The deployment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a significant step towards economic integration and collaboration. 2025 may bring more progress in implementing the AfCFTA as African nations understand the importance of diversifying their economies and reducing dependency on external markets.
In 2025, African countries will enhance green mineral processing fueled by the aspirations to maximize the benefits of the extractive industries and leverage robust renewable energy resources. Mineral-rich countries will seek new partnerships to advance their value-addition objectives. This trend needs to be supported.
Given the ongoing global geopolitical trends, African countries will likely enhance their positions and secure more representation in global platforms, with the South African presidency of the G20, the African Union’s full membership of the group, as well as the inclusion of Ethiopia and Egypt in the BRICS.
Tensions between France and Francophone African countries that started with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso will likely escalate as more francophone countries reassess their historical ties with the former colonial power. As global power dynamics evolve, many Francophone African countries are increasingly looking toward new partners beyond France, including China, Russia, and other emerging economies seeking alternative pathways for development, trade, and security, leading to a gradual disillusionment with France as the primary partner.
Pressed by various actors, South Africa’s G20 Presidency launched a Cost of Capital Commission to investigate factors hindering low- and middle-income countries from accessing affordable capital. South Africa’s presidency presents a unique opportunity to enhance the continent’s development priorities on the global stage. The debt crisis in developing countries has escalated to critical levels. In Africa, public debt soared by 240% between 2008 and 2022, resulting in many nations allocating more resources to debt interest payments than to healthcare. This scenario hampers their capacity to invest in sustainable development and climate resilience.
By examining the trends, challenges, and opportunities that lie ahead, my aim in sharing these analyses at the beginning of the years has always been to provide a roadmap for policymakers, CSOs, philanthropies, businesses, and other stakeholders to navigate the complexities of Africa’s evolving landscape.
1/ Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty
Despite some economic growth and impressive resilience, Africa’s structural transformation will likely still be inconsistent in 2025.
According to the African Development Bank, growth in Africa is expected to increase only to around 4.3 percent in 2025. But given that economic growth does not automatically and immediately impact poverty reduction, the continent’s most challenging task is to ensure that the products of growth are distributed fairly and that they are no longer used to widen the gap between rich and poor, knowing that this is an important source of conflict.
Africa now has good reasons to invest in modernized agriculture, encourage and sustain productivity, and, of course, increase cultivable lands. This will have the threefold advantage of meeting the food needs of our people, creating jobs, and diversifying the economy. It will also promote regional trade among African countries, taking all the advantages from the AfCFTA.
Funding challenges will remain as African governments continue to face financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and looming debt repayments. To adapt to these challenges, in addition to the urgent need to reform the Global Financial Architecture, African countries should deploy internal structural reforms to diversify funding sources and their economies. The fight against illicit financial flows (IFF) should be intensified, as progress here will catalyze more fiscal space for governments.
Trade/AGOA: As the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its expiration in September 2025, the uncertainty regarding its renewal presents significant challenges for investment in key sectors like textiles, agriculture, and the automotive industry. AGOA has played a crucial role in facilitating trade and economic development between the United States and eligible sub-Saharan African countries by providing duty-free access to U.S. markets for a range of goods. However, as negotiations around its renewal progress, it is essential for the continent to secure a better deal. So, should AGOA renewal be placed on the agenda, the African side should advocate for a comprehensive review and enhancement of the agreement to ensure its effectiveness in the current landscape, particularly in light of the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Here are key elements to consider:
Alignment of Trade Policy, including harmonizing regulations and standards across the participating countries to facilitate smoother trade flows between U.S. and African markets
Regional Value Chains to promote the development of regional value chains in Africa, allowing countries to collaborate on producing goods that meet AGOA requirements while leveraging the strengths and resources of multiple countries within the AfCFTA framework.
Specific Support for SMEs and Startups: Both AGOA and AfCFTA seek to foster inclusive economic growth, and reforms could include dedicated support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Creating programs that assist SMEs in meeting export standards and accessing financing would bolster their capabilities to participate in global trade.
Trade Facilitation Initiatives: Integrating trade facilitation measures from AfCFTA into AGOA can streamline customs procedures and reduce trade barriers. This could include the adoption of technology in customs operations and cross-border trade facilitation measures that are consistent with AfCFTA protocols. Revisions to AGOA could also encourage partnerships between U.S. firms and African businesses participating in AfCFTA. Such collaborations can drive investment, innovation, and technology transfer, ultimately benefiting both economies.
2/ African Union Theme of 2025: “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations”
Reparations, encompassing reparatory justice for historical crimes and mass atrocities committed against Africans and people of African descent, have consistently been integral to the full decolonization process advocated by the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) and now the African Union (AU) since its establishment in 1963. Over the past three decades, the African Union has made numerous decisions and supported initiatives aimed at championing justice and advocating for reparations to Africans. It has also focused on the restitution of cultural artifacts, relics, and heritage that were pillaged during colonization and enslavement, working toward returning these items to the African countries from which they were taken. The Assembly of the Union decided that the theme of the Year for 2025 will be ‘‘Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.’’. Leaders have also designated the reparations for transatlantic enslavement, colonialism, and apartheid as a Flagship Issue and Project of the Union.
To enhance advocacy for an African common position on reparations and forge a united front on reparations for Global Africa, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana was appointed as the African Union Leader on Advancing the Cause of Justice and Payment of Reparations to Africans. This appointment may be transferred to the new president of Ghana, John Mahama.
The upcoming AU Summit in February 2025 will likely adopt a roadmap for implementing the theme on the continent and in the diaspora.
3/ Human Rights, Governance and Electoral Democracy: Unfinished Business
Liberties and freedoms, civic and democratic space, justice, and the protection of civilians are still in trouble on the continent, mostly because regional and continental institutions remain silent.
Africa must also find a way out of the vicious circle of election credibility and the needed political alternation in power. Without this, our continent will continue its progressive descent into hell, thus undermining any prospect of economic development.
Change at the helm of power is a crucial aspect of the democratic game, particularly in contexts where institutions remain weak, and the electoral system is susceptible to manipulation. We need to keep discussing the issue of limiting presidential terms, as this is often the only effective way to remove leaders who persistently cling to power in the context of flawed elections. Currently, only a handful of African countries exemplify this democratic principle, including Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, and South Africa.
4/The African Union: A New Start?
The current leadership of the African Union Commission will be largely renewed during the February 2025 Summit. The current Chairperson, Moussa Faki from Chad, the Deputy Chairperson, Dr. Monique Nsanzabaganwa from Rwanda, and most of the commissioners should hand over power to newly elected officials for a four-year term.
In addition, Angolan President João Lourenço is likely to be appointed Chairperson of the AU for 2025 to replace the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Ghazouani.
Angolan diplomacy, historically engaged in resolving continental conflicts, particularly in the Central African Republic and the Great Lakes region, has a golden opportunity to impact the continent.
President João Lourenço has several advantages. First, his role as a mediator between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, to help end the conflict between the two neighboring countries provides him with experience and credibility. Second, his ability to maintain good relations with global powers—such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union—as well as with regional leaders, including India, Brazil, and South Africa, is essential for ensuring that Africa is given a greater presence in international forums.
5/ Peace and Security:
Peace and security remain a serious prerequisite for the continent’s development and progress and the well-being of its people.
Africa has not made enough progress in this area in recent years. In many cases, such as in Sudan, our institutions have not acted seriously on early warning signs that were quite visible. What our regional institutions need are courage and the political will to cut with old methods. For example, the leadership of the African Union Commission must be able to speak out loudly whenever national leaders are violating our shared values and challenge them. That is why we need strong and audible leaders at the AU Commission.
The current state of conflict on the African continent is marked by complex and interlinked dynamics. Major conflict situations are interconnected with sub-national issues across the five geographical regions, resulting in conflicts that are either spreading into new areas, involving an increasing number of actors, witnessing a rise in fatalities, or deteriorating overall due to the escalation of their root causes.
Regional crises will continue impeding development efforts. Wars, armed conflicts, and extreme weather conditions have forced millions to flee their homes.
As reported by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), approximately 35 million Africans were living as refugees or displaced persons within their own countries at the end of 2024.
Additionally, the convergence of global megatrends such as climate change, energy transition, and migration intensifies the already intricate conflict landscape in Africa. Climate change poses a significant threat to the continent, manifesting in rising temperatures, altered weather patterns, and environmental degradation. These challenges jeopardize agricultural productivity and food security while exacerbating existing regional vulnerabilities.
The ongoing shift toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources offers both potential benefits and challenges for Africa. While this transition can help reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change, it necessitates considerable investment and infrastructure development. The lack of reliable energy access further deepens inequalities and can lead to social unrest.
At present, each region of Africa faces a distinct combination of these challenges, greatly influencing the continent’s conflict-related security landscape in unique ways.
Major Conflicts & Risky Situations to Watch Closely in Africa
In 2025, Africa will still have to manage the following hot spots:
Sudan: Sudan continues to face internal conflicts and political instability. I hoped that Sudan’s civil war would come to an end in 2024. Unfortunately, international mediation efforts have not succeeded. With ongoing support from foreign backers, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have resumed intense fighting in Khartoum, Al Jazirah State, and around Al Fashir in Darfur. In December, the Sudanese government accused Chad of having authorized the firing of Emirati drones from its soil and towards Sudan. The army, which is fighting the rebels of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemetti, now believes that N’Djamena is, through an alliance with the United Arab Emirates, directly engaged against it in the civil war, and in particular in the Darfur region. Looking ahead to 2025, international mediation efforts will advance little unless the current stalemate is resolved.
Sahel Region: Over the last decade, the region has been shaken by extremist uprisings and military coups. Three Sahelian nations, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, are now ruled by military leaders who have taken power by force on the pledge of providing more security to citizens. The Security crisis is complex, and the situation is worsening with record numbers of attacks and civilians killed both by Islamic fighters and government forces.
Ethiopia: Ethiopia has been grappling with various conflicts, notably the conflict in the Tigray region, where fighting between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and government forces has led to a humanitarian crisis, including mass displacement and reports of human rights abuses. Ethnic tensions and unresolved grievances in other parts of the country also contribute to the ongoing conflict.
DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo’s complex and long-standing conflict situation is a pending concern for the continent’s stability. Various armed conflicts, including clashes between rebel groups, inter-communal violence, and attacks by armed militias, have plagued the country. The conflicts are often fueled by competition over natural resources, such as minerals, leading to violence and instability in the region. The eastern part of the DRC, particularly in the provinces of Kivu, continues to be a hotspot for violence in the fight between the government and the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23. This is leading to widespread casualty and displacement of civilians, human rights abuses, and a humanitarian crisis.
Ethiopia and Egypt: Their relationship has been strained since 2011 when Ethiopia started building and filling the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a project that Egypt sees as a significant risk to its water and food security. The situation worsened further as Egypt strengthened its relationship with Ethiopia’s competitor, Somalia. In addition to sending troops, weaponry, and ammunition to Somalia, Egypt plans to conduct joint military exercises with the country. Egypt’s warming relationship with Somalia has raised concerns in Addis Ababa, as Ethiopia disagrees with Mogadishu over a maritime agreement that Ethiopia recently reached with Somaliland.
Silencing the Guns by 2030: Beyond the Slogan: Unfortunately, this campaign, with an initial deadline set for 2020 and then moved to 2030, remains a slogan without serious action to realize it by tackling the root causes of the conflicts.
Efforts to silence the guns must extend beyond rhetoric; it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity of African institutions to proactively prevent conflicts in a more comprehensive and timely manner rather than relying solely on reactive conflict resolution strategies.
Conflicts across the continent emerge from various structural vulnerabilities, including environmental challenges, competition for access to and the illegal extraction of natural resources, social unrest driven by poor and unaccountable governance, the proliferation of illicit small arms and light weapons, and the rise of religious radicalization.
6/Prioritizing Socioeconomic Development Over Military Solutions
Achieving sustainable peace in Africa necessitates addressing the root causes of conflicts, which are frequently tied to poverty, inequality, limited access to education, and social injustices. By prioritizing socio-economic development rather than military solutions, African countries can create a foundation for enduring peace and prosperity for their citizens. It is essential to invest in sectors capable of driving economic growth and generating opportunities for the youth. The continent can establish an environment conducive to long-term stability and prosperity by directing resources toward these areas and implementing supportive policies.
Agriculture, the backbone of many African economies, offers significant potential for stimulating economic growth and creating employment opportunities for young people. With its vast arable land and an expanding population, Africa can harness agriculture to enhance food security, increase job prospects, and foster sustainable development. By investing in modern farming techniques, expanding market access, and supporting smallholder farmers, the continent can unlock the full potential of its agricultural sector and empower youth in rural communities.
Adding Value to Africa’s Strategic Critical Mineral Resources
Many conflicts on the continent are driven by the exploitation of natural resources. Therefore, African nations must prioritize taking control of and adding value to these vital resources. The strategic minerals in Africa—such as gold, diamonds, cobalt, platinum, and rare earth elements—are crucial for modern industries, including technology, green energy, and infrastructure. However, the extraction and trade of these resources have frequently been plagued by corruption and exploitation, resulting in instability and human suffering in various regions. African countries must assert their sovereignty over their mineral resources to disrupt this cycle of conflict and foster sustainable peace. By establishing transparent and accountable governance systems, countries can prevent the illicit exploitation of their minerals and ensure equitable distribution of benefits among their citizens. This approach will not only address the root causes of conflicts but also promote economic development and social advancement.
Pan-African institutions must work together to enhance understanding of the challenges within the mining sector and align with the African Mining Vision (AMV) objectives. Accelerating research and data collection to identify the key obstacles hindering the implementation of the AMV is also important. The continent must invest in building the capacity of stakeholders in the mining sector to tackle these challenges effectively and encourage collaboration among industry participants, government agencies, and civil society to develop innovative solutions for sustainable mining growth.
National governments should be empowered to implement policies encouraging value addition to mineral and agricultural products.
7/Africa and the Rest of the World
Africa has everything to gain by continuing to diversify its economic partners. The spectacular positioning of China and other new partners in Africa has openly changed the balance of power with traditional partners and reoriented the African economy and development process. But the continent must keep its eyes wide open. Africa’s partnerships (old and new) must contribute to the realization of our agendas 2030 and 2063, and we must ensure that social, human rights and equity standards are absolutely respected in the pursuit of these partnerships. Non-state actors have a major watchdog role to play here.
I do not anticipate a significant emphasis on Africa policy from the incoming Trump administration. However, the United States cannot afford to overlook Africa, as the continent is at a critical juncture that presents numerous opportunities for both economic and diplomatic engagement. With a population approaching 1.5 billion and an economy that has shown resilience amid global challenges, Africa is emerging as a key player on the world stage.
Key Moments in 2025 (This section will be updated as new events are planned)
African Union Summit & election of new AU leadership: 12-16 February 2025
50th Anniversary of ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States will celebrate its fiftieth anniversary in May 2025, at a moment when three founding members—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—announced their withdrawal from the organization in January 2023. They have declared their decision to be irrevocable, despite attempts at mediation, and have subsequently established a new entity known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Their official withdrawal from ECOWAS is set to take effect on January 29, 2025, in accordance with the organization’s regulations. The 50th anniversary of ECOWAS offers an opportunity to rethink and improve the mandates and working methods of the subregional body.
The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development will be held in Seville, Spain, from 30 June to 3 July 2025. The conference will address new and emerging issues and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals and support reform of the international financial architecture.
Elections: Unlike 2024, 2025 is expected to be more stable, with fewer major elections, mostly in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tanzania, along with the promised end of transition in Gabon and Guinea. Here is the election calendar for 2025 by EISA. Further analysis of Africa’s upcoming elections can be found here.
Artificial Intelligence Summit in Kigali: On April 3 and 4, 2025, Rwanda will host the first Global AI Summit in Africa in Kigali. This event is organized by the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Rwanda and the World Economic Forum. With the belief that AI could contribute $2.9 trillion to the African economy by 2030, the summit aims to explore economic opportunities for the African workforce. It will bring together global leaders, government ministers, CEOs, civil society representatives, startups, investors, and international organizations to shape Africa’s role in the global AI economy.
COP, Women’s Rights: 2025 will also mark the 10th anniversary of the COP21 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Goals and the 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action on Women’s Rights.
Il y a une demande croissante et une urgence pour améliorer l’efficacité et la capacité des Nations Unies à maintenir la paix et la sécurité internationales. La configuration actuelle du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU ne reflète pas les réalités géopolitiques d’aujourd’hui. Pour l’Afrique, en particulier, un continent de 1,4 milliard de personnes, avoir des sièges permanents à part entière au CSNU ne vise pas seulement à corriger une injustice historique, mais c’est aussi une question de légitimité et de crédibilité du Conseil.
Les États-Unis viennent d’annoncer leur soutien à la création de deux sièges permanents pour les États africains au Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies, mais ils ont exclu l’extension des Droits de Veto aux nouveaux membres permanents.
L’Afrique accepterait-elle cette offre ?
La position commune actuelle de l’Afrique, connue sous le nom de “Consensus d’Ezulwini“, appelle à deux sièges permanents avec toutes les prérogatives et privilèges de la qualité de membre permanent, y compris le droit de veto, et à cinq sièges non permanents.
Le Droit de Veto a historiquement entravé l’efficacité et l’équité du Conseil dans le traitement des questions de paix et de sécurité internationales. L’Afrique est donc, en principe, favorable à son abolition pour renforcer la fonctionnalité du Conseil. Cependant, si les États membres choisissent de maintenir le Veto, il devrait être étendu à tous les nouveaux membres permanents pour des raisons de justice et d’équité. La réforme du Conseil de sécurité devrait alors envisager soit l’absence du Veto pour tous, soit un Veto pour chaque membre permanent.
Il est donc peu probable que le continent accepte la proposition des États-Unis pour deux sièges permanents sans Droits de Veto. Dans le contexte actuel, une adhésion permanente des pays africains au Conseil sans Droit de Veto serait inutile et sans effet. Cela ressemblerait plutôt à un statut de “membres permanents de deuxième classe”. Certains analystes sur le continent le qualifient de statut ” d’observateurs permanents” au Conseil.
Quels pays peuvent représenter l’Afrique au Conseil de Sécurité ?
Malgré le fait que le Consensus d’Ezulwini stipule que l’Union africaine devrait être chargée de sélectionner les représentants de l’Afrique au Conseil, le continent n’a jusqu’à présent pas réussi à établir les critères de choix des deux candidats africains pour les sièges permanents parmi ses 55 États membres.
Les pays africains doivent s’engager dans un dialogue constructif et une collaboration pour établir des objectifs et critères communs pour le choix des représentants qui serviront au mieux les intérêts du continent.
Il serait important de prendre en compte des facteurs tels que la capacité, l’importance géopolitique, l’expérience diplomatique, la représentation régionale, l’engagement à respecter le droit international et les droits de l’homme, et la capacité à jouer efficacement dans ce système global complexe.
Devrait-on pousser les pays avec de vastes populations et/ou de grandes économies et capacités diplomatiques, comme le Nigeria, l’Égypte, l’Algerie, le Maroc, l’Éthiopie ou l’Afrique du Sud ? Devrait-on réserver un siège pour l’organe continental, l’Union africaine ? Sur ce dernier point, la difficulté sera que l’Union africaine est encore un organe purement intergouvernemental sans autorité supranational. Les États membres conservant leur souveraineté entière et leur pouvoir de décision, et l’UA agit uniquement comme un forum de coordination, de coopération et de consultation entre ses États membres. Le continent a un sérieux travail à faire à ce sujet.
Redevabilité
En délibérant sur sa représentation au CSNU, l’Union africaine doit également envisager de mettre en place un mécanisme de redevabilité pour ses représentants au Conseil de Sécurité . Nous savons comment les jeux de pouvoir, l’influence politique et la pression peuvent influencer les décisions et les votes aux Nations Unies. L’histoire récente nous rappelle qu’en 2011, les trois membres africains non permanents du Conseil de sécurité (Gabon, Nigeria, Afrique du Sud) ont soutenu la Résolution 1973 du CSNU, autorisant les actions militaires de l’OTAN en Libye, malgré les efforts continus de l’Union africaine pour trouver une solution pacifique à la crise. La résolution a été présentée par la France, le Royaume-Uni et le Liban.
Modifier la Charte des Nations Unies
Une modification de la Charte des Nations Unies serait nécessaire pour changer la composition du Conseil. L’article 108 de la Charte des Nations Unies dispose qu’une modification nécessite le soutien de tous les cinq membres permanents (P5) et la majorité des deux tiers des États membres de l’ONU à l’Assemblée générale. Ce ne sera certainement pas un processus facile.
Le prochain Sommet de l’Avenir, qui se tiendra en marge de l’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies, crée une opportunité supplémentaire pour corriger la gouvernance mondiale et de revitaliser le système multilatéral, y compris une réforme équitable du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU qui prend en compte le besoin urgent de le rendre plus représentatif, inclusif, transparent, efficace, démocratique, crédible et responsable.
There is a growing demand and an urgency to increase the effectiveness of the United Nations’ abilities to maintain international peace and security. The current configuration of the UN Security Council does not reflect today’s geopolitical realities. For Africa, in particular, a continent of 1.4 billion people, having full permanent seats at the UNSC is not just about redressing a historical injustice. It is also a matter of legitimacy and credibility of the Council.
The current African common position, known as the “Ezulwini Consensus,” calls for two permanent seats with all the prerogatives and privileges of permanent membership, including the right of Veto, and five non-permanent seats.
The veto power has historically hindered the Council’s effectiveness and fairness in addressing global peace and security issues, so Africa is, in principle, in favor of its abolition to enhance the Council’s functionality. However, if member states opt to maintain the veto power, it should be extended to all new permanent members for the sake of fairness and justice. The UNSC reform should then consider either no Veto at all or a Veto for every permanent member.
So, it is unlikely that the continent will accept the United States proposal for two permanent seats without veto rights. Considering the current setting, a permanent membership of African countries at the UNSC without Veto Power is meaningless. It will look more like a “second-class” membership status. Some analysts in the continent see this status as a “Permanent Observer Membership” at the Council.
Which countries to represent Africa?
Despite the Ezulwini Consensus stipulating that the African Union should be responsible for selecting Africa’s representatives in the Security Council, the continent has so far been unable to establish the criteria for choosing the two African candidates for permanent seats among its 55 member states.
African countries must engage in constructive dialogue and collaboration to establish common goals and criteria for selecting representatives who will best serve the continent’s interests.
What factors should determine who represents the African continent? This process may involve considering factors such as capacity, geopolitical importance, diplomatic experience, regional representation, commitment to upholding international law and human rights, and the ability to play within this complex global system effectively.
Should the continent push countries with large populations and/or big economies and diplomatic capacity, such as Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, or South Africa? Should a seat be reserved for the continental body, the African Union? On the latter, the difficulty will be that the African Union is still a purely intergovernmental body with no supranational authority. Member states maintain their sovereignty and decision-making power, and the AU only acts as a forum for coordination, cooperation, and consultation among its member states. The continent has serious homework to do on this.
Accountability
While deliberating on its representation, the African Union may also consider putting in place an accountability mechanism for its representatives at the UNSC. We know how proxy games, political influence, and pressure can impact decisions and votes at the United Nations. Recent history reminds us that in 2011, all three African non-permanent members of the Security Council (Gabon, Nigeria, South Africa) backed UNSC 1973, authorizing NATO’s military actions in Libya despite the African Union’s ongoing efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis. The resolution was tabled by France, the UK, and Lebanon.
Going forwards…
An amendment to the UN Charter would be needed to change the composition of the Council. Article 108 of the UN Charter states that an amendment requires the support of all Permanent Five (P5) members and a two-thirds majority of UN member states in the General Assembly. This will surely not be an easy process.
The upcoming Summit of the Future, to be held on the margins of the UN General Assembly, creates an additional opportunity to correct global governance and reinvigorate the multilateral system, including a fair reform of the UN Security Council that recognizes the urgent need to make it more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic, credible, and accountable.
This is the summary of a presentation I made at the seminar on the African Union Reform co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies and the Government of Kenya in the margins of the African Union Mid-Year Coordination meeting with the Regional Economic Communities in Nairobi, Kenya, on 13th July 2023.
The fundamental reason for the transformation of the Organization of Afrian Unity (OAU) to the African Union (AU) in the years 2000s is to ensure that the continental body becomes a people-centered institution as opposed to what was known as a club of Heads of State.
One of the seven aspirations of the AU’s Agenda 2063 (aspiration # 6, precisely) is “to build an Africa whose development is people-driven and relies on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth.”
The inclusive economic development that Africa aspires to achieve requires a vibrant civil society, making the necessary contribution to continental efforts through participatory engagements in decision-making.
Active citizens are a fundamental prerequisite for an effective African Union.
At the country level, we know that Citizens’ engagement with their leaders improves the delivery of inclusive, accessible, and responsive public services, such as the provision of healthcare, safe water, quality education, decent jobs, etc.
Because of its closeness to the day-to-day life of the communities, Civil Society has an identity that is distinct from States. In conflict situations, civil society has the vocation to contribute to peace-building initiatives.
Civil society has shown its capacity to organize the collection, analysis, and evaluation of first-hand information, allowing the identification of the sources of potential tensions as well as emerging conflicts.
The characteristics of security issues the African Union addresses today radically differ from those of the previous decades. Today’s conflicts appear to be more complex than ever, and their nature obliges us to change how they resolve them.
While “Traditional” conflicts were well understood by diplomats and specialists in political science, addressing new conflicts adequately requires much more on-the-ground knowledge, new social and cultural analysis skills, the active involvement of communities and their leaders, links to vulnerable groups, and new ways of working. Civil society organizations, most of the time, have unique capacities in those areas.
In the face of the many challenges Africa currently faces, boosting a people-driven development process has never been more urgent. It is the only means for sustainable development and change, which can only happen when African citizens are informed, empowered, and enabled to influence policies and practices and utilize improved mechanisms to hold leaders accountable.
The AU Agenda 2063 recognizes that people’s ownership, support, and mobilization are critical enablers to concretizing Africa’s aspirations.
So, for a prosperous and democratic society, state actors and a well-organized civil society should be seen as the two sides of the same coin because they complement each other.
Civil society is a reservoir of goodwill needed to accelerate national, regional, and continental development.
With all these realities in mind, the ongoing institutional reform of the AU, especially the review of the organs, should deliberately ensure that the new African Union and its organs give adequate space and resources for citizens’ participation at 3 levels:
Policymaking
Policy implementation
Accountability
We know that the African Union has created organs and mechanisms to encourage the contributions of citizens and their formations.
These include but are not limited to the following:
1/ ECOSOCC: The Economic Social and Cultural Council, an organ of the Union
2/ CIDO: The Citizens and Diaspora Organizations division of the AU Commission
3/ Provisions and frameworks organizing the contribution of citizens, their formations, and affected populations within the peace and security and governance frameworks of the Union.
Such provisions and frameworks include the Livingston Formula, the Maseru Conclusion, the African Governance Architecture, and the African Peace and Security Architecture.
4/ A mechanism for the participation of CSOs in the work of the Africa Commission for Human and Peoples’ Rights.
5/ A mechanism for the interaction of child-focus organizations with the African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child (ACERWC),
6/ The Pan Africa Parliament also aims to provide a platform for people’s representatives from the various member states to contribute to the African Union’s work.
But, over the years, with all that I mentioned, Citizens’ space and participation have not been consistent. It remains informal, ad-hoc, and definitely not at the expected level recommended by the Constitutive Act of the AU.
Here are just a few examples,
1/ It has been difficult for CSOs in African Union Member States to know exactly what it takes to provide input to continental policy debate and get accreditation to do so.
2/ The yearly calendar of policy gatherings of the various organs of the AU is nowhere to be found unless you have a friend within the conference department or a member state representative, or embassy staff.
3/ Physical access to the premises of the AU Commission has been inconsistent and a challenge to CSOs, representatives, and even for those who have established Liaison offices to the Union or have signed an MoU with the Commission.
4/ …and overall observers’ access to AU Summit has been increasingly restricted
I am conscious of the fact that not all existing CSOs’ representatives can be invited to all meetings, but there should be a transparent procedure known by all…
You will agree with me in the conditions I have just described that it is impossible to tap into and take full advantage of the immense resource that CSOs offer for the Africa we want…
However, there are good reasons for us to believe that change and improvement of the current situation are possible and even on the way.
Today’s gathering for this policy debate, co-hosted by ISS and the Government of Kenya, is an example of the necessary interaction between states and non-state actors.
Early this week, hundreds of citizens of the continent and the diaspora gathered under the hospices of ECOSOCC, supported by the Government of Kenya, for policy discussions on various thematic as well as a Citizens’ Forum on Democracy and Digital Governance. I recommend that the Kenya delegation take the outcomes of these discussions to the AU policy space in Addis Ababa and champion them.
ECOSOCC’s New Approach
A critical positive trend that we are also witnessing is the new approach being taken by ECOSOCC with its new leadership over the last few years.
Such a progressive approach is visibly taking the organ back to its originally intended purpose, as a platform for African Civil Society Organizations, in all their variety to contribute to the shaping of the African we want, and no more as a gatekeeper or a filter for CSOs participation in the AU affairs, as it used to be the case since ECOSOCC has been launched.
This trend, already being appreciated by member states and the CSOs community within the continent, should be supported and institutionalized tobe consistent and sustainable.
We also know that a harmonized mechanism for granting consultative and observer status to CSOs in Africa is being prepared to be submitted to the African Union policy organs for adoption soon.
This excellent move will clarify what it takes for a CSO to have a formal relationship with the African Union for interactions, participation, exchange, and knowledge transfer.
With a harmonized Mechanism, the AU, through ECOSOCC, could have and maintain a comprehensive database of CSOs from across the continent and the Diaspora working on the various programs and thematic of the AU. This will facilitate invitations and consultations to contribute to programs or to provide technical advice on the thematic areas CSOs are specialized in.
For this particular process, I would like to submit that such a centralized, general mechanism be as liberal as possible and that thematic departments and organs of the AU be the ones to define specific considerations or a set of rules that may govern their regular interactions with CSOs operating in their specific fields.
I would also like to submit that such a harmonized mechanism recognizes and makes room for the necessary flexibility that characterizes the nature of civil society, especially regarding humanitarian intervention, peacebuilding, and human security.
I would like to conclude my overall contribution by saying that only a reformed African Union that makes meaningful space for citizens’ participation and an agreed accountability mechanism can take us to the 2063 promised land.
Je partage avec vous ici, mon exposé introductif du Dialogue intergénérationnel que nous avions organisé à l’occasion de la Journée de l’Afrique 2023, qui a marqué le 60eme anniversaire de la création de l’organisation de l’Unité Africaine (OUA) en 1963, transformée plus tard pour devenir l’Union Africaine (UA).
Dakar, Sénégal le 27 mai 2023.
Distingués invités,
Chers Champions de ONE,
Mesdames et Messieurs,
Au nom de ONE Campaign et ses partenaires co-organisateurs de cet évènement, je vous remercie d’avoir choisi de vous joindre à ce débat de la journée de l’Afrique 2023 qui marque le 60eme anniversaire de la création de l’Organisation de l’Unité Africaine (OUA), transformée en Union Africaine (UA).
ONE est un mouvement mondial, faisant campagne et du plaidoyer pour mettre fin à l’extrême pauvreté et aux maladies évitables, en particulier en Afrique.
Nous croyons que la lutte contre la pauvreté n’est pas une question de charité mais de justice et d’égalité.
Qu’il s’agisse de faire pression sur les dirigeants politiques dans les grandes capitales du monde ou, former les jeunes à la citoyenneté responsable, ou encore pour autonomiser les petits exploitants agricoles, ONE fait pression sur les gouvernements pour qu’ils en fassent davantage pour plus de justice sociale.
Les plus de 7 millions de membres, activistes et supporteurs de ONE sont essentiels à ce travail. Ils viennent de tous les horizons. Ce sont des artistes et des militants, des chefs religieux et des chefs d’entreprise, des étudiants, des scientifiques et des citoyens ordinaires.
Ils agissent jour après jour organisant, mobilisant, éduquant et plaidant pour que les populations aient la chance non seulement de survivre, mais aussi de prospérer.
Nos équipes sont à Washington D.C., New York, Ottawa, Londres, Johannesburg, Abuja, Bruxelles, Berlin, Paris, Addis Abeba, Nairobi et bien sûr Dakar.
Nous sommes apolitiques et non partisans.
Mesdames et Messieurs, La rencontre d’aujourd’hui se situe dans le cadre de la Journée de l’Afrique, qui a été célébrée le 25 mai. C’est en effet le 25 mai 1963, il y a donc 60 ans, que l’Organisation de l’Unité Africaine a été créée à Addis Abeba en Éthiopie.
L’OUA a été fondée par les 32 pays qui étaient alors indépendants. Plus tard, les 23 autres nations ont progressivement rejoint le club.
L’OUA était un engagement sans précédent avec pour aspiration la libération politique totale de l’Afrique du colonialisme, l’unité et la solidarité entre ses peuples.
Alors que les principaux objectifs de l’OUA étaient de débarrasser le continent des derniers vestiges de la colonisation et de l’apartheid ainsi que de promouvoir l’unité et la solidarité entre les États africains, la nouvelle Union africaine créée en 2002, vise “une Afrique intégrée, prospère et pacifique, conduite par ses citoyens et représentant une force dynamique sur la scène mondiale“.
La transformation de l’OUA en UA a créé l’espoir pour une plus grande unité et solidarité des pays africains et entre les peuples africains. La volonté de construire une institution centrée sur les citoyens est la principale caractéristique distinctive entre l’Union africaine et l’ancienne Organisation de l’unité africaine, qui était exclusivement axée sur les États.
La journée de l’Afrique devrait être un jour où nous racontons l’histoire de notre continent à nos jeunes générations, l’histoire de nos gloires passées mais aussi les fondements d’un avenir plus radieux.
La Journée de l’Afrique doit aussi être une journée de réengagement envers nos Valeurs Partagées et nos Agendas communs : l’Agenda 2063 de l’UA et l’Agenda 2030 des Nations Unies pour Développement Durable.
L’UA a adopté un ensemble de valeurs partagées centrées sur la démocratie et la bonne gouvernance, l’État de droit et les droits de l’homme, la paix et la sécurité, ainsi que le développement et l’intégration du continent.
La Journée de l’Afrique doit être une journée d’une solidarité africaine renouvelée. Elle doit nous rappeler qu’une partie importante de notre continent est encore, malheureusement dévastée par les conflits injustifiables.
Elle doit nous rappeler que 15 millions de jeunes Africains viennent chaque année sur le marché de l’emploi mais que seulement environ 3 millions d’emplois formels sont créés.
Cette journée doit donc renforcer notre détermination à lutter contre l’extrême pauvreté et toutes les formes d’inégalités et de discriminations en Afrique.
Depuis sa création, l’Union africaine a élevé la barre normative des ambitions de développement socio-économique et démocratique du continent. Mais l’adoption de normes, de traités, de cadres politiques ne suffit pas à elle seule, pour nous mener vers « l’Afrique que nous voulons ». Nous devons tenir nos promesses en mettant effectivement en œuvre ces instruments et en nous tenant régulièrement mutuellement responsables. Il est temps de combler le fossé entre les promesses et la réalité quotidienne de la plupart des citoyens.
On estime à environ 25000 les jeunes Africains qui sont morts ou portés disparus en Mer Méditerranée en tentant de fuir notre continent entre 2014 et 2023. Beaucoup d’autres sont morts dans le désert du Sahara avant même d’atteindre la mer. Pourquoi quittent-ils le continent ?
34 des 54 pays africains sont étiquetés comme « pays les moins avancés », alors que dans le même temps, environ 90 milliards de dollars sortent illégalement du continent par le biais de flux financiers illicites (FFI) selon le rapport Thabo Mbeki.
L’Afrique possèderait plus de 90 % des ressources mondiales en chrome, 85 % de sa platine, 70 % de sa tantalite, 68 % de son cobalt, 54 % de son or, ainsi que d’importantes réserves de pétrole et de gaz. Le continent abrite également des gisements d’uranium, de manganèse, de diamant, de phosphate et de bauxite en très grandes quantités. Il a du bois et d’autres ressources forestières ajoutées à ses vastes terres arables pour l’agriculture.
Aujourd’hui, notre débat tournera autour de la Zone de Libre Échange Continentale Africaine (ZLECAf), et les opportunités qu’elle présente pour la jeunesse en matière d’employabilité.
La ZLECAf, née officiellement en janvier 2021 vise :
L’élimination progressive des tarifs douaniers et des barrières non tarifaires ;
L’amélioration de la coopération dans le domaine des obstacles techniques au commerce et des mesures sanitaires et phytosanitaires ;
Le développement des chaines de valeurs aux niveaux régional et continental
Le renforcement des traits du développement et l’industrialisation de l’Afrique.
54 des 55 États membres de l’Union Africaine ont signé l’accord de la ZLECAf.
La Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (ZLECAf) pourrait permettre aux pays africains de faire sortir de l’extrême pauvreté 30 millions d’habitants.
L’Afrique pourra enregistrer 450 milliards de dollars de revenu d’ici à 2035, soit une augmentation de 7%.
La mise en œuvre de la ZLECAF permettrait de mener à bien les réformes de fond nécessaires pour stimuler la croissance à long terme dans les pays africains.
Est-ce trop beau pour être vrai ?
Mesdames et messieurs, distingués invités, chers panelistes,
Ce projet est-il trop beau pour être vrai comme se le demandent déjà certains de nos compatriotes Africains ?
Ont-ils des raisons d’y croire ou d’en douter?
Que doivent faire les dirigeants africains pour relever ce défi ?
Avons-nous déjà ce que nous allons échanger au moment où la plupart de nos échanges tournent autour des matières premières et s’effectuent avec le monde extérieur?
Que faire des barrières non tarifaires auxquelles nous faisons face présentement en Afrique ? Les mesures non tarifaires coûteuses, les lacunes en matière d’infrastructures, d’informations sur le marché etc?
Et si les droits de douanes tombent complètement, qu’adviendra-t-il aux petits pays face à ceux qui ont déjà une industrialisation relativement avancée ?
Le Président Américain Joe Biden organise un sommet avec les chefs d’État et de gouvernement africains à Washington DC du 13 au 15 décembre 2022. Ce sera le deuxième sommet américain avec des dirigeants africains, après celui organisé par le Président Obama en août 2014.
J’ai eu l’occasion de participer au Sommet de Barack Obama en tant que représentant résident d’Oxfam International auprès de l’Union africaine à l’époque, et j’ai eu à publier mes réflexions ici.
Dans cet article, alors que je me prépare pour prendre part au Sommet de Joe Biden pour le compte de ONE Campaign, j’aimerais partager quelques réflexions personnelles sur les enjeux de cette rencontre imminente.
Selon la Maison Blanche, le Sommet démontrera l’engagement des États-Unis envers l’Afrique et soulignera l’importance des relations entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique ainsi qu’une coopération poussée sur des priorités mondiales communes. Le sommet des dirigeants américains et africains vise à promouvoir et faire progresser la collaboration entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique sur les priorités mondiales et régionales les plus urgentes.
Sur l’Agenda
Selon la Maison Blanche, le Sommet des leaders d’Afrique et des Etats-Unis s’appuiera sur les valeurs, communes aux deux continents afin de mieux :
1- Favoriser un nouvel engagement économique
2- Promouvoir la paix, la sécurité et la bonne gouvernance
3- Renforcer l’engagement en faveur de la démocratie, les droits de l’homme et la société civile.
4- Travailler en synergie pour renforcer la sécurité sanitaire régionale et mondiale.
5- Promouvoir la sécurité alimentaire
6- Répondre à la crise climatique
7- Amplifier les liens avec la diaspora
L’importance géopolitique et économique de l’Afrique
De toute évidence, le Sommet sera le reflet de la nouvelle stratégie américaine à l’égard de l’Afrique, qui démontre l’importance cruciale du continent pour relever les défis mondiaux actuels. L’Afrique est un acteur géopolitique clé, qui façonne le présent et l’avenir du monde.
Avec une population à la croissance la plus rapide au monde, la plus grande zone de libre-échange, les écosystèmes les plus diversifiés et étant la plus grande force politique pour les votes aux Nations Unies, l’Afrique est un vaste continent organisé en cinq régions géographiques (Nord, Est, Ouest, Sud, Centre). Les aspirations actuelles du continent sont mis en évidence dans l’Agenda 2063 de l’Union Africaine – L’Afrique que nous voulons, un plan d’action visant à construire un continent intégré, pacifique et prospère qui occupe la place qui lui revient sur la scène mondiale.
L’importance stratégique du continent pour la sécurité et la prospérité régionales et mondiales et le rôle croissant et significatif qu’il joue dans la mise sur pied du système mondial de gouvernance ont fait de l’Afrique un acteur politique incontournable dans les discussions internationales. Cette importance se note clairement dans les divers types d’engagements diplomatiques et l’éventail des partenariats qu’elle établit avec différents blocs politiques et pays au cours des trois dernières décennies.
En outre, l’Afrique est très attrayante, avec ses ressources naturelles et humaines abondantes. Sa population majoritairement jeune, dynamique et résiliente, son énorme potentiel de développement, de commerce et d’investissement, entre autres, sont quelques-uns des grands atouts et avantages concurrentiels du continent.
Diplomatie des Sommets: une Tentative de Rattrapage ?
Depuis que le Président Obama a organisé le premier Sommet avec le continent en 2014, dans le but de contribuer à ouvrir un nouveau chapitre dans les relations américano-africaines, les États-Unis ont perdu du terrain face à leurs “concurrents” en Afrique. Entre temps, le président Trump avait choisi de dénigrer les pays africains et interdit à nombre de leurs citoyens de se rendre aux États-Unis, et le président Biden n’a pas fait grand-chose jusqu’à présent pour montrer son engagement envers l’Afrique.
Au cours des deux dernières années seulement, l’Union européenne, le Royaume-Uni, la Turquie, l’Inde et le Japon ont tenu leurs sommets avec le continent. La Chine a organisé son quatrième Forum triennal sur la coopération sino-africaine (FOCAC) au Sénégal, et la Russie tiendra son deuxième sommet africain en 2023. La Chine a nettement approfondi ses relations avec l’Afrique. Ses échanges commerciales avec le continent ayant augmentées 35 % en 2021 pour atteindre un pic de 254 milliards de dollars en atteste largement. En outre, la Russie a fait des percées notoires, les mercenaires du groupe Wagner, soutenus par le Kremlin, opérant désormais dans pas moins de 18 pays africains, selon le Centre d’études stratégiques et internationales de Washington.
Les récents votes des pays africains à l’Assemblée générale des Nations unies sont assez édifiants et indique clairement que le continent ne peut plus être considéré comme acquis. Le Président Biden comprend donc certainement que l’Amérique doit rattraper son retard dans ses relations avec l’Afrique et, surtout, adopter une nouvelle approche et de nouveaux langages différents des pratiques de l’administration américaine précédente.
Qui est invité au Sommet, et qui ne l’est pas ?
49 dirigeants des 55 États membres de l’Union africaine ont été invités. Les dirigeants du Mali, du Burkina Faso, du Soudan et de la Guinée, qui ont été suspendus de l’Union africaine, n’ont pas reçu d’invitation. L’autre critère d’invitation observé est inhérent à l’existence de relations diplomatiques. Le président Biden n’a, en effet, invité que les pays avec lesquels les États-Unis entretiennent des relations diplomatiques complètes. Actuellement, les États-Unis n’échangent pas d’ambassadeurs avec l’Érythrée et n’ont pas reconnu la République Arabe Sahraouie Démocratique en tant que pays ; par conséquent, bien que ces deux nations soient des membres réguliers de l’Union Africaine, elles n’ont pas été invitées. Curieusement, le Tchad a été invité bien que le dirigeant actuel du pays Mahamat Déby, ait récemment pris le pouvoir par un coup d’État, violant la constitution nationale et les règles de l’Union lorsque son père, Idriss Deby Itno, a été assassiné. L’Union Africaine n’a pas réussi à suspendre le Tchad à la suite du coup d’État, dans ce qui est considéré comme un double-standard politique.
Au-delà de la réunion des chefs d’État…
Le sommet de Washington impliquera aussi officiellement le monde des affaires, la société civile, la jeunesse et la diaspora africaine.
Un forum de la société civile sera organisé par l’USAID le 13 décembre 2022, avec la participation des représentants de la société civile et de certains dirigeants d’Afrique et des États-Unis. Le Forum proposera les sujets de discussion suivants : La participation inclusive dans la politique et la vie publique, la lutte contre la corruption, et les droits des travailleurs.
Un forum de la diaspora et de la jeunesse sera aussi organisé le 13 décembre 2022 : le forum des jeunes leaders d’Afrique et de la diaspora a pour objectif de rehausser le niveau d’engagement de la diaspora afin de renforcer le dialogue entre les responsables américains et la diaspora aux États-Unis et de fournir une plateforme aux jeunes leaders d’Afrique et de la diaspora pour élaborer des solutions innovantes aux défis urgents. L’Union africaine a identifié la diaspora africaine comme la sixième région du continent. La diaspora est, en effet, une ressource importante et une opportunité d’engagement dans le développement du continent. Le Forum comprendra des séances en petits groupes sur l’enseignement supérieur, les industries créatives et la justice climatique, sur le thème “Amplifier les voix : Construire des partenariats durables”.
Un forum des affaires sera organisé le 14 décembre 2022, par le ministère américain du commerce, la chambre de commerce américaine et le Corporate Council on Africa, en partenariat avec l’initiative Prosper Africa. Le Forum s’articulera autour de la promotion de partenariats bilatéraux en matière de commerce et d’investissement afin de renforcer le rôle de l’Afrique dans l’économie mondiale, développer l’innovation et l’esprit d’entreprise et favoriser les progrès dans des secteurs clés. Placé sous le thème “Partenariat pour un avenir prospère et résilient”, le Forum réunira des chefs d’État africains et des chefs d’entreprise et de gouvernement américains et africains afin de promouvoir des partenariats mutuellement bénéfiques qui créent des emplois et stimulent une croissance inclusive et durable des deux côtés de l’Atlantique.
Paix et sécurité : Il y aura un forum sur la paix, la sécurité et la gouvernance, avec des représentants des entités de développement, de défense et de diplomatie qui parleront des liens entre les institutions démocratiques, de la gouvernance, de la paix et la prospérité à long terme.
Commerce, santé, etc : Une réunion ministérielle sur la croissance et les possibilités économiques en Afrique sera également convoquée par le représentant des États-Unis pour le commerce, ainsi qu’une réunion ministérielle sur la santé afin d’examiner comment les deux parties pourraient s’associer pour mettre en place des systèmes de santé plus résilients et équitables afin de relever les défis sanitaires actuels et futurs.
Il sera aussi important pour les dirigeants africains de discuter de la forme que prendra le dispositif AGOA après son expiration en 2025 et de la manière dont son successeur s’intégrera dans la nouvelle zone de libre-échange continentale africaine.
Le climat : Une session avec les ministres des affaires étrangères sera également organisée pour soutenir la conservation, l’adaptation aux changements climatiques et une transition énergétique juste, ainsi qu’un forum américano-africain sur l’espace civil et commercial pour discuter des objectifs partagés sur la crise climatique, la promotion d’un comportements responsables et le renforcement de la coopération sur les activités spatiales scientifiques et commerciales.
Sécurité alimentaire : Une session spéciale du sommet sera consacrée à la sécurité alimentaire et aux systèmes alimentaires, l’une des préoccupations les plus cruciales dans laquelle l’Afrique doit investir de toute urgence, mais aussi dans une perspective à long terme, et pour laquelle les États-Unis peuvent être un excellent partenaire.
Autres événements parallèles : Plusieurs acteurs non étatiques prévoient différentes réunions thématiques en marge des rassemblements officiels afin d’influer sur les résultats du sommet. Pour en savoir plus sur ces réunions, cliquez ici.
Quelles priorités pour l’Afrique ?
Le prochain sommet des dirigeants américains et africains devrait se concentrer sur une vision globale à long terme d’une relation forte et stratégique entre les États-Unis et l’Afrique, afin d’assurer la prospérité collective des peuples américain et africain. Une telle relation devrait être fondée sur un respect mutuel absolu et des valeurs partagées.
Dans le cadre de la Diplomatie des Sommets en cours avec les différents blocs politiques, l’Afrique devrait toujours s’assurer que les 7 aspirations de son Agenda 2063 sont prises en compte. Nos dirigeants doivent les aborder clairement lors des prochaines discussions à Washington.
Voici 4 des questions les plus cruciales que le Sommet devrait prioriser :
1/ La Sécurité Alimentaire : Le paradoxe embarrassant à ce sujet est que, bien qu’elle possède plus de 60% des terres fertiles du monde, l’Afrique reste un importateur hors norme de nourriture, dépensant 35 milliards de dollars par an en importations alimentaires. La guerre en Ukraine compromet aussi certains approvisionnements du continent. Si rien n’est fait, des millions d’Africains risquent encore de tomber dans l’extrême pauvreté et la malnutrition. La conséquence directe de la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires sera que moins de ménages africains pourront s’offrir des repas quotidiens décents. Les ménages en situation d’insécurité alimentaire sur le continent seront encore plus laissés à leurs sorts. Les taux de consommation baisseront, l’épargne s’épuisera, la dette augmentera et les actifs seront liquidés, ce qui risque d’accentuer l’instabilité sur le continent. Nous avons beaucoup de terres en Afrique, mais la plupart des agriculteurs utilisent encore des instruments rudimentaires pour l’agriculture. L’industrie agroalimentaire est peu développée en Afrique et se caractérise principalement par une transformation à petite échelle des produits agricoles, assurée par de petites unités aux capacités très limitées.
La Banque africaine de développement (BAD) dispose d’une stratégie pour la transformation de l’agriculture en Afrique dans le cadre de son High5. Lors de sa récente réunion annuelle à Accra, au Ghana, la BAD a lancé un programme de 1,5 milliard de dollar pour financer l’achat de denrées alimentaires pour les gouvernements à court d’argent vu la rapidité avec laquelle les prix augmentent. Il est urgent de donner la priorité aux investissements dans l’agriculture dès maintenant aux niveaux national et régional. Il est temps pour l’Afrique de se nourrir par elle-même. Le continent a besoin de ressources pour y parvenir, et les États-Unis peuvent l’appuyer financièrement et techniquement.
Le gouvernement des États-Unis a un fort pouvoir de pression pour soutenir ce processus. Le prochain sommet devrait donc être une occasion pour aborder la question de la fuite des capitaux d’Afrique comme un problème crucial pour l’avenir du continent et de la communauté mondiale.
2/ Le Financement du Développement : Mettre fin aux flux financiers illicites pour stimuler l’industrialisation : Chaque année, 89 milliards de dollars quittent le continent africain sous forme de flux financiers illicites, selon le rapport de la CNUCED sur le développement économique en Afrique. Il s’agit de mouvements transfrontaliers d’argent et d’actifs dont la source, le transfert ou l’utilisation sont illégaux. Ils comprennent les capitaux illicites qui sortent du continent, les pratiques fiscales et commerciales telles que la facturation sous-facturation des expéditions commerciales, et les activités criminelles telles que les marchés illégaux, la corruption et les detournements.
APD contre FFIs : Le fait choquant est que les milliards perdus chaque année à cause des FFI sont presque égaux à l’aide publique au développement (APD) et aux investissements directs étrangers (IDE) réunis. Il s’agit d’opportunités de développement manquées. Ainsi, l’Afrique perd beaucoup plus d’argent à cause de la fuite des capitaux qu’elle n’en obtient à travers l’aide au développement, les emprunts extérieurs ou les investissements directs étrangers. L’arrêt des flux financiers illicites nécessite une coopération et des actions internationales, tant sur le continent qu’à l’extérieur. Chaque dollar qui quitte le continent est une occasion manquée d’investir dans des domaines tels que l’agriculture, la sécurité alimentaire, les services de santé et d’éducation, et les infrastructures.
Mandaté par l’Union Africaine et la Commission économique des Nations Unies pour l’Afrique, un groupe de haut niveau dirigé par l’ancient président Thabo Mbeki a formulé des recommandations pratiques pour lutter contre les FFI. Nous devons revenir sur ces recommandations, les concrétiser et débloquer des ressources substantielles pour financer nos plans de développement.
3/ La jeunesse : l’emploi et le développent des compétences : La structure d’âge de notre population a un impact important sur notre développement économique. Le “dividende démographique” désigne les avantages économiques découlant d’une augmentation significative du nombre d’adultes en âge de travailler par rapport à ceux qui sont à charge. Ces adultes en âge de travailler doivent être en bonne santé, éduqués, formés, qualifiés et avoir un emploi décent, et d’autres opportunités économiques doivent être créées pour répondre à leurs demandes. Il ne suffit pas d’avoir une population jeune pour catalyser le développement et la prospérité. Tous les pays africains doivent mettre en œuvre efficacement la feuille de route de l’Union Africaine pour tirer profit du dividende démographique en Afrique.
4/ Conflits : Au-delà des solutions militaires : L’Union Africaine elle-même a identifié plus de 20 conflits actuels dans les pays qui composent l’Union. 113 millions de personnes en Afrique ont actuellement un besoin urgent d’aide humanitaire. Les causes profondes de la plupart des conflits en Afrique se trouvent essentiellement dans l’extrême pauvreté, les profondes inégalités structurelles, la gestion inefficace des ressources naturelles et le changement climatique, entre autres. Les opérations militaires ne suffiront pas à apporter la paix en Afrique. Nous devons en priorité nous attaquer à la crise de la gouvernance, promouvoir une participation inclusive à la politique, fournir des services sociaux et stimuler le développement. Les interventions militaires ne doivent être qu’au service de cette approche.
Un mécanisme de redevabilité pour garantir la mise en œuvre des engagements du sommet Etats-Unis – Afrique.
Contrairement à d’autres sommets (TICAD, FOCAC, UE-UA, etc.), le sommet États-Unis-Afrique ne dispose pas d’un processus structuré de suivi, de mise en œuvre et de redevabilité. Le prochain sommet devrait examiner cette question de près et mettre en place un mécanisme de redevabilité mutuelle inclusif et impliquant les organisations de la société civile.
Aujourd’hui, il est difficile de savoir précisément ce qu’il en est des engagements adoptés lors du sommet d’Obama en 2014. Le fait d’avoir près de 50 chefs d’État et de gouvernement, avec de grandes délégations qui se rendent à Washington en jets individuels, a un coût énorme pour le continent et le monde. Ce sommet devrait déboucher sur des actions concrètes et mesurables qui auront des impacts réels sur les populations des États-Unis et de l’Afrique.
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The African Union Heads of State will hold an extraordinary Summit on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the 7th July 2019 in Niamey, Niger. The Summit will be dedicated to the launch of the operational phase of the AfCFTA as well as its operational instruments.
The extraordinary Summit will be held in the margins of the inaugural session of the Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities (8th July) that replaces the previous mid-year AU Summit, as decided within the framework of the ongoing African Union reform.
The Executive Council of the AU (Ministers of Foreign Affairs) will have its ordinary session on the 4th & 5th July on the same occasion deliberate on important documents and reports of AU organs including most likely the 2020 budget of the Union the legal documents of the new African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), the theme of the year 2020 among other things.
In this personal blog I am sharing an overview of the key items on the Agenda of these important gatherings, the outcome of which would be a big step toward the implementation of the Agenda 2063, the Africa we want.
The Launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area: What Expectations?
The Treaty establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area aims to 1/ Create a single continental market for goods and services, with free movement of business persons and investments, therefore, pave the way for accelerating the establishment of a continental customs union, 2/ Expand intra-Africa trade through better harmonization and coordination of trade liberalization, facilitation regimes and instruments across the continent, 3/ Resolve the challenges of multiple and overlapping memberships and expedite the regional and continental integration processes , 4/Enhance competitiveness at the industry and enterprise level through exploiting opportunities for scale production, continental market access and better reallocation of resources in Africa.
The African Continental Free Trade Area then provides an opportunity to promote policies and resources that could create conditions for harnessing Africa demographic dividend in the context of creating space for jobs, especially for the youth and economic diversification. This requires attention to expediting domestic capital formation and using capital market strategies to drive the creation and expansion of small and medium enterprises involving youth ownership.
If genuinely implemented, the AfCFTA will provide a framework to ease the cost of doing business within Africa. It will aggregate the very fragmented African market but,… will the continent quickly address non-tariff barriers, such as infrastructure backlogs, border corruption, poor communication means etc? Above all I am also wondering if we have enough to trade among ourselves with this ambitious trade agreement while our economies are mostly alike and largely dominated by the exportation of raw material. To take full advantage of the AfCFTA African leaders should deliberately and aggressively invest in industrialization without waiting. An initial focus should be on agriculture and agro-industry development.
The Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) entered into force on 30th May 2019 for the 24 countries that ratified it. 52 of the 55 AU Member states signed the AfCFTA. Only Benin, Eritrea and Nigeria have not signed the Treaty. If fully ratified, the AfCFTA will open the largest free trade zone in the world with a collective GDP of over $3 trillion and more than 1.2 billion consumers. AfCFTA is expected to boost intra-Africa trade, which accounts roughly for 17% only of all the continent’s exports. The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has estimated that intra-Africa trade would likely increase to 52.3 % by 2020 due to the AfCFTA.
The Extraordinary Summit
Beside the launch of the operational phase of the AfCFTA, the AU Summit’s delegations to be hosted in the newly built Radisson Blu Hotel of Niamey are expected to launch the following operational instruments of the treaty.
Rules of Origin Portal
Tariff Concession Portals
Portal on Monitoring and Elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers
Digital Payments and Clearing System
African Trade Observatory Dashboard
The Niamey Summit will surely be one of the most attended AU Summit by Heads of State and other personalities in recent time. Special guests will likely include the Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres, the Director General of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevêdo, the Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, the President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export–Import Bank (AFREXIMBANK) Professor Benedict Okey Oramah, the Executive Director of International Trade Center Dr. Arancha Gonzalez, the European Commissioner for International Cooperation and Development Neven Mimica among others.
The Summit will also consider and approve a set of other decisions coming from the Executive Council as part of the reform of the African Union.
On the Agenda of the Executive Council
The Ministers of Foreign Affairs will most likely discuss and eventually make decisions on the following:
The legal instruments of the new African Union Development Agency – NEPAD including the statutes and the rules of procedures of its governing structures
The new statutes of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM)
AU budget for 2020: the current draft budget is around 647 Million USD, more than 60% of which will be paid by external partners
The Theme of the year 2020. The current proposal is:“Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”
The Implementation of Agenda 2063
The African Court on Human and People’s Rights
The African Commission on Human and People’s Rights
The Challenges and Ratification/Accession and Implementation of the OAU/AU Treaties and decisions
In addition the Council will consider the agenda, working documents and expected outcomes of the Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities.
Discussions and decisions on the new departmental structure of the AU Commission in the framework of the African Union reform will likely be differed to the February 2020 Summit.
Several side events are also on the Summit agenda.
The Mid-Year Coordination Meeting of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities: The way forward toward Effectiveness and Efficiency?
From now on, according to a decision of the Assembly of the Union, there will be only one ordinary AU Summit per year instead of the two Summits previously held. The Mid-year Summit has now become a Coordination Meeting with the Regional Economic Communities (RECS). The Permanent Representatives Committee (Ambassadors) and the Executive Council of the Union will normally convene as before, prior to the Coordination Meeting. In Niamey, the rules of procedure of the coordination meeting will be considered and eventually adopted. The Mid-Year Coordination Meeting will normally be the highest committee for the African Union and RECs to align their work and coordinate the implementation of the continental integration agenda. The rules of procedures to be discussed in Niamey will define the composition of the gathering, criteria for participation, the running of its business, powers and decision making mechanisms. These policies would have to be adopted ultimately by the Assembly of the Union.
Regional Economic Communities (RECs) are regional groupings of African States each lead by a Head of State or Government on a rotational basis. Currently the African Union recognizes 8 RECs from the 5 geographical regions of the continent. They are seen as the building blocks of the African Union in its economic integration process. The 8 RECs are: AMU, CEN-SAD, COMESA, EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, IGAD and SADC.
The RECs work more and more closely with the African Union and are expected to serve their member States with the implementation of the regional integration agenda. The RECs were formed on either historical, political or economic basis. Their members are generally of more than one regional economic community and they operate at different levels of capacity and efficiency. You can read more about the RECs here.
The launch of the mid-year coordination meeting between the AU and the RECs carries the hope to deal with the cumbersome issue of overlap, duplication and sometime competition between the African Union and the RECs, to finally insure complementarity, subsidiarity and to use the comparative advantages of each of the regional bodies vis a vis the African Union. It will also create an important platform to track the implementation of the African Union decisions at country level; more than 80% of which remain in the shelves untouched according to various reports.
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The 27th Summit of the Heads of State of the African Union will be held in Kigali, Rwanda from 10 -18 July 2016 under the theme: “African Year of Human Rights with Specific focus on the Rights of Women”. The African Union Commission decided not to invite observers (Non-African countries, Non-State Actors and other) to this summit. I would like to share the following personal reflections on the Summit:
Issues likely to dominate the AU Summit
Which Human Rights? The year 2016 has been declared as the “African Year of Human Rights with Specific focus on Women’s Rights”. Officially, this theme is premised on the realisation that 2016 marks a watershed in the continent’s efforts to promote and protect human rights and provides an opportunity to take stock of the gains made over the years by the human rights bodies within the continent.
Interestingly 2016 is being marked by a serious decline on fundamental human rights in Africa with numerous violations of basic political rights and a denial of the African Union “shared values” by a number of leaders, most of whom have been clinging to power for decades by all means including changing the supreme law of the land… the constitution.
In Kigali, Heads of State and Government will have an interactive discussion following a presentation on the theme by the African Union Commission and a decision or a solemn declaration/commitment may be be adopted on the theme as usual.
I am not sure what an additional decision or declaration on Human Rights will be for… while in Gambia politicians and activists are being tortured to death and in Uganda political opposition leaders and candidates jailed before, during and after the elections… and this did not prevent regional and continental “observers” to declare the elections free and fair….
After failing to send troops to protect innocent civilians, can the heads of state really convince Burundians that this is their “Year of Human Rights” ?
If our leaders are really serious about the “Year of Human Rights” they should consider the concrete suggestions below while making their decisions. The upcoming Summit is also an opportunity for progressive, like-minded and pro-democracy and pro-” AU’s shared values” leaders to break the silence against old school dictators who are only pulling our continent backward.
Elections of the AU Commission Leadership: The “hottest” business of the Summit is the election of the AU Commission Cabinet. The 10 cabinet members of the AU Commission including the Chairperson, the Deputy Chairperson and 8 Commissioners will be elected/re-elected in Kigali if everything goes well. The current Chairperson Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who has only served one 4-year term (from 2012) is re-eligible but she is not contesting (officially) for another term. The Deputy Chairperson, Erastus Mwencha and two other commissioners (Infrastructure and Energy, Rural Economy and Agriculture), having been elected twice (in 2008 and 2012) are not eligible for re-election. The other six commissioners (Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Social Affairs, Trade and Industry, Economic Affairs and Human Resources Science and Technology), who have only served one term are eligible for re-election. However except the Commissioner for Political Affairs and the Commissioner for Human Resources, Science and Technology, these have all put forward their candidature.
Some analysts think that, even if the election happens, it is unlikely for any of the current candidates for the Chairpersonship to gather the 2/3 votes from Member States, needed to be elected. So, there is an eventuality for a postponement of the elections. Some countries/regions are pushing for the postponement of the election and the re-opening of the applications to new candidates.
Peace and Security: The summit is expected to discuss the on-going conflicts in the continent. The Peace and Security Council will also meet at Heads of State level. The Summit will normally adopt an omnibus decision on the state of peace and security in the continent. The following burning and unresolved situations will be discussed: Burundi, South Sudan, Sudan, DRC, Somalia, CAR, Western Sahara, Mali etc. Emerging threats to peace and security, such as maritime security and terrorism are also likely to be discussed.
Constitutionalism, Governance, Electoral Fraud/Violence & Unlimited Presidential Terms: It is not sure who will champion discussions on electoral frauds and violence as well as unlimited presidential terms issues in Kigali, but it is now in the common knowledge that if these issues are not resolved soon in Africa, more violent conflicts will emerge and our development plans including the Agendas 2063 /2030 will remain just “beautiful papers” with no prospect for realisation. It is expected that some progressive leaders will table these issues for discussion.
One African Passport/Free Movement: As part of the 10-year implementation plan of the agenda 2063, the AU is making efforts to create a single African passport for travel across the continent. Such a passport will presented to the heads of states in Kigali. In an attempt to promote free movement of people, related decisions are expected to happen during the Kigali summit. There is already a plan to adopt a protocol on free movement in Africa in 2018. A few countries including Rwanda, Ghana and Namibia have issued “visa on arrival” policies for African passport holders. More countries must do so in the mean time.
African Agenda 2063: The AU’s Agenda 2063 has been adopted by African Heads of State and Government as the Continent’s new long-term vision for the next 50 years. Priority programmes and projects of the Agenda include: An Integrated High Speed Train Network, the Continental Free Trade Area, the African Passport and Free Movement of people, Unification of African Air Space, the Grand Inga Dam Project etc. The 10-year implementation plan is having hard time to show concrete steps 3 years after the adoption of the Agenda while basic conditions for a true development move are getting worse in the continent.
Other issues: A number of other issues including the illicit financial flows out of Africa, the alternative sources of funding of the AU, the restructuring of the African Union Commission, the ICC etc. will also be on the agenda of the Kigali Summit. Find out more in the coming weeks on www.assodesire.com
Calendar of the Summit
From 10 to 12 July 2016: Ordinary Session of the Permanent Representatives’ Committee (Ambassadors)
From 13 to 15 July 2016: Ordinary Session of the Executive Council (Ministers of Foreign Affairs)
From 17 and 18 July 2016: Ordinary Session of the Assembly (Heads of State and Government)
Closing of the mid-year Summits to observers
In January 2015, the Assembly of the Union directed the Commission to make proposals on the streamlining of the AU Summits and the working methods of the Union in order to accelerate the implementation of the Agenda 2063. In June 2015, the Commission proposed a set of recommendations to the Assembly including a proposal that only one summit be open to partners and that only partners (observers accredited to the AU/with MOUs with AU) with business related to the theme of the Summit be invited to the AU Summit. The Assembly then decided among other things to “continue with 2 summits which should be streamlined with one Summit focusing on policy issues with participation of partners (…) and the other Summit focusing on the implementation of decisions”. The decision did not precise which of the 2 Summits will be open and which will be closed but given the practice of the last 2 years, it is looking like the January Summit will be open and the June/July summit closed.
The AU Commission is not inviting observers to the Kigali Summit. So, CSOs, non-African countries and other observers are not invited and their side events may not be allowed within and around the summit premises. This move is being strongly contested by the civil society and is seen as part of the whole strategy of governments to shrink civic space. (See my blog on this issue here: https://assodesire.com/2016/06/06/the-controversial-closing-of-the-au-summits-to-citizensobservers/ )
To give a true meaning to the “Year of Human Rights” The Kigali Summit should adopt the following decisions/ Commitments
1- On Civic Space: The Summit should decide a moratorium on all existing national laws that restrict CSOs’ operations and call for the revision of those laws before the end of the year in accordance to universal rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association. Since 2012, at least 29 restrictive laws on civic space have been introduced in African countries.
2- All AU Members should commit to ratify the African Court of Human and People’s Rights Protocol before the end of 2016. on As of December 2015 only 29 out of the 54 AU members were Parties to the Protocol seventeen years after its adoption.
3- All AU Members should accept the competence of the African Court of Human and People’s Rights to receive cases from individuals and NGOs before the end of the year. As of December 2016 only 7 countries have done so.
4- Kigali Summit should demand the immediate release of all political prisoners, stop intimidations and cases against political leaders in all AU Members states and call for investigations on the recent cases of torture to death in Gambia, force disappearance and other gross HR violations in the continent.
5- The Kigali Summit should decide on concrete sanctions applicable to countries that do not comply to the HR Courts decisions and the list of those countries should be published regularly.
6- The African Passport in preparation for the Summit must be issued to a number of ordinary citizens of the continent… not just to heads of state as currently planned.
7- Because of the high risk that constitutional amendments present now on peace and security in Africa, the Kigali Summit should decide a moratorium on those changes aiming to prolong presidential terms until a serious discussion happens and decisions made at continental level in this. Not doing it will be like jeopardizing the realisation of our Agenda 2063, “the Africa we want” and a denial of our shared values.
8- On the rights of women: all member states should show case of the concrete national policy and practice changes (with figures) that they have operated since the adoption of the AU Women Rights Protocol and the Solemn Declaration on Gender Mainstreaming.
Assodesire 